u/Complete_Effect_5304

Cropped the pic down to just the product on purpose, not trying to witch-hunt anyone

We’re 3 weeks out from Sept 16 and we’re already seeing early 30th product moving on local streams. Not preorders, actual in hand stuff being ripped live at $94 a pack

Thing is, this set has no prerelease, no Build & Battle, nothing. It’s the first ever simultaneous worldwide release, that was literally the whole marketing angle. So there’s no legit way sealed product is sitting in a private seller’s hands right now

Already happened elsewhere too. Malaysian streamer went live in July charging up to RM4,600 a pack and the local community reported her instead of celebrating, mainly because KL was hosting the first PokéXciting! in Asia on 12 and 13 Sept and nobody wanted that jeopardised

Then last week eBay started pulling in 30th listings after TPCi told them these cards aren’t available through authorized channels yet. One guy lost his Sylveon SIR listing and he’d won it in a Facebook raffle, did nothing wrong, still got hit

Worth remembering we’re on the same tour. PokéXciting! hits Singapore on 7 and 8 Nov, citywide. Not saying one stream tanks it, but that’s the kind of thing that gets quietly reviewed when leaked product keeps tracking back to your market

So what are you actually buying at $94? You might not be able to resell it anywhere once the platforms catch up. And should Maxsoft be chasing this since they’re the sole SEA distributor, or is it not really their problem?

I’ve always been a willing buyer willing seller guy, but this one left me with no words.

Streamer on TikTok auctioning off 30th Anniversary Pikachu singles. The one in the pic went for S$200. Not a typo. Two hundred dollars.

For your info:

The set doesn’t release until 16 September. Worldwide, all at once, so supply hits every market on the same day. What’s being auctioned right now are pre-release copies, and that’s the only thing you’re paying a premium for. Three weeks of impatience.

Every pack guarantees one of the 30 Pikachu. Not a chase card, not a pull rate you’re gambling against. One per pack, every pack, no exceptions.

The odds within the 30 are flat. No Pikachu in the subset is rarer than any other. The one that sold is 18/30 (040/128). It is not special.

I know it’s your money and I’m not here to tell you how to spend it. But at least wait until the set is actually out. Better yet, wait a couple of months after release once the hype dies down and prices settle. You’ll almost certainly get the same card for a fraction of that.

For anyone who watches or buys into NPL (no pack limit) streams on TikTok, the ones where you pay a flat price and the streamer keeps opening until you hit a certain number of “hits,” I want to lay out something that doesn’t get talked about enough.

Japanese suppliers sell packs with guaranteed AR in them. The photo attached is a supplier price sheet. Look at the Mega Dream (M2a) line: a guaranteed “Sealed AR Pack” runs about S$5.92 each at wholesale. There are also “dead packs,” guaranteed to have nothing.

Here’s the play. A streamer builds the pool mostly out of guaranteed AR packs and dead/filler packs, then mixes in some genuine unfiltered packs, or even a real booster box, so actual chase hits are still possible.

That keeps it from being technically riggable, nobody can say the chases don’t exist, but the odds of you actually landing one are way lower now. You’re often opening a curated ratio.

Now the money. A normal unfiltered Mega Dream pack goes for around $8.50 on the supplier market. If a streamer charges $120 for an NPL slot, they break even somewhere around the 14th or 15th pack. Everything before that is margin.

On average, if your hits come before then, the house wins. And to tilt the ratio even further in their favor, that’s where the guaranteed AR packs come in: at about S$5.92 each they’re cheaper than unfiltered packs, and they let a streamer end your run on a “hit” fast, closing the slot before you ever get deep enough to threaten their margin. It’s built to.

To be clear, I’m not saying every streamer does this. Plenty run honest breaks. But the tools to tilt it exist, they’re cheap, and readily available. It is a numbers and ratio game, and the ratio is set by the person opening the packs, not you.

Just know what you’re actually buying into. As always, the standard advice is to avoid loose Japanese packs altogether, but I get that plenty of people still buy them, and sealed boxes aren’t exactly cheap either. So if you’re going to play, at least play with your eyes open. Stay safe out there.

Posting this as a warning to anyone buying into rip & ship.

I was watching a TikTok rip & ship and noticed something that shouldn’t be possible: three holos appearing before the hit slot. If you’ve opened Mega Dream before, you know that doesn’t happen.

The box was shrink wrapped, which is exactly what makes this worth flagging. Fake sealed boxes are cheap and easy to get, and shrink on camera proves nothing on its own. This seller has already sold 166 of them.

They also appear to be based in China, which raises the question of how they’re selling into the SG market in the first place.

I only started recording once I noticed the anomaly, so the first few packs and opening from the box aren’t on video: https://streamable.com/cny216

I reported it to TikTok and got the usual “no violation” response. If you can, please report it too.

Judge the clip for yourself, and happy to be corrected if someone knows the set better than I do.

Heads up to the community, there are a lot of suspiciously cheap Japanese Pokémon packs going around lately. Attaching an image showing dead packs being sold openly by a Japanese supplier

Plenty of suppliers in Japan sell dead packs or mixed/repacked packs. Even when a listing says “mixed,” the ratio is usually bad because the packs have been searched and filtered first. Some sellers pull the chase cards before selling, so you’ll hit plenty of regular SARs but never the chase SARs that actually matter. To make it look more legit, some sellers even leave in a chase hit maybe 1 in every 1000 packs, just enough to keep people believing the packs are not filtered

Watch out for retaped packs too. Some sellers retape packs to fake that “konbini” effect Singaporeans love. If packs come taped in bundles (e.g. Mega Dream in 10s), they’re most likely filtered, since high class sets are usually sold in 5s

Recently saw a buyer buy out 450 Mega Dream packs from a stream. The only chase hits from all of that were 1 rainbow Pika and 1 Zard MA, plus about 10 other low value SARs. The streamer’s response was that they “share stock” with a partner who also streams, so the good hits must be on the partner’s side, and then encouraged people to buy from that partner instead

450 packs and that’s the return? Do the math yourself. What’s crazy is how many people are completely oblivious to this and will continue supporting such streams

Bottom line: cheap doesn’t mean good. The discount usually IS the filtering. Only buy from sources with good reviews and people you trust

I know the standard advice is “just don’t buy loose packs,” but this PSA is for those who are still gonna buy them anyway. Boxes aren’t exactly cheap either. Just go in with your eyes open, buy from people you trust, and don’t let the FOMO get you 🫡

This guy really thinks he’s some kind of guru when it comes to spotting resealed products.

In pic 1, he’s calling out a Carousell seller and implying the ETB might be reshrinked because the price is “too good to be true.” Did he conveniently leave out the fact that the ETB already has dents and tears on the shrink wrap (Pic 3)? Of course damaged sealed products sell for less. Since when do people go through the trouble of reshrinking an ETB just to leave obvious tears in the plastic?

What bothers me more is that this isn’t the first time. Previously, he kept insisting that if an ETB doesn’t have the curved shrink wrap at the bottom, it’s most likely reshrinked. Then he took another seller’s photos (pic 2) and publicly implied the ETB was resealed based on that alone, with zero concrete evidence.
The funny part? EU shrink wrap and US shrink wrap aren’t even always the same. Not every authentic ETB will look identical. Shortly after people pointed it out, the post disappeared.

If you don’t know, then don’t act like you do. Making serious claims that could hurt someone’s reputation should require actual evidence, not guesses and assumptions. And if you’re going to use someone else’s photos to suggest they’re selling a resealed product, did you even contact them first to verify anything?

Spreading misinformation for attention isn’t helping anyone. You’re just creating unnecessary doubt and potentially damaging legitimate sellers.

I’ve been seeing a lot of comments about UncKenny lately. I’ve been buying from him for a long time, but with everything that’s being said, I’m starting to wonder if I’m supporting the wrong person

Saw this vendor at Tengah trade show selling NM (DMG). What’s that even supposed to mean?

200k on Abyss Eye? Free loan?