u/ComplexPalpitation76

Hey everyone! I've been tracking the Dubai property market prices for a while. Famously, there have been some incredible new trackers and websites, thanks to the age of Claude and ChatGPT being upon us. They effectively track property finder and Bayut listings across thousands of listed properties.

What's interesting about these websites is that they not only track which properties exist but benchmark them dynamically across their peer sets and are also able to track how many times those property prices have actually seen drops and what dates they've seen drops. That's very useful information because it shows something that was previously unseen or hidden. It shows buyer behavior, buyer desperation, and, more importantly, how long properties have been on the market.

I feel that it's not the absolute drop in property value that's important. What is important is time on the market because that signals liquidity more than desperation and simple cracks, and in liquidity, as we've seen back in 2007 or 2008, is more of a systemic problem. It's not an isolated problem where a villa or an apartment somewhere might be a distressed sale property because someone lost their job or someone's business did not turn out to be very good or just needs liquidity for the time being.

Systemic problems are much, much harder to spot before they happen, but there are obviously markers. You have to look at time in the market, cracks, and patterns forming across types of asset classes and price points to really be able to identify these. I feel that we're at the beginning of a very large meltdown in this space because we're now seeing property wait times in terms of finding sellers going from a month and a half on average to three months. Properties never used to be on the market for more than 15-20 days, and now we're seeing properties on the market for more than four months. That is an indicator.

What is seemingly surprising to me is that this is before any of the off-plan releases that are planned for 2027-2029, so that's going to bring another 100-200,000 apartment units into supply. I feel that if it's slowing down now, it should really capitulate the market in the coming 12-18 months. My perspective is that we're going to see more distressed sales, property prices drop another 15-20% from where they are right now at a bare minimum, and that's my basic scenario, but keen to hear what other investors are thinking about this.

Hey everyone, long-time lurker, first-time poster here. I have been tracking the Dubai real estate scene, taking an active interest these days because I've been looking to get my hands on a villa. Having seen the bull run over the past three to four years, it almost feels criminal to be buying it at a point in time where prices are so inflated.

I've been doing some digging, and as most of you must have come across this luxury price drops website that allows you to really take a look at which properties have been on the market for how long and how many times they've been reduced in terms of price. Generally, I've been seeing drops of 30-35% across segments. This is across off-plan and ready units, across apartments, villas, townhouses, etc. It's really a systemic problem and not an isolated one.

I've also seen larger investors seemingly dump their positions. Famously, there was a Damac Lagoon building on sale for 190 million dirhams this week, which was previously listed for 490 million.

Here are the three things I've taken away from this:

1. Property prices have dropped since March (of course, we all know what happened then). It's been three months, and they seemingly don't have buyers. They've not gone off the market; they're still just declined for about 20-25% with no buyers yet. That, in my opinion, is a bit of a red flag.
2. Property owners seem very keen to get properties off their market, which is why prices have dropped on average between two and four times, with edge cases being seven to eight times as well.
3. Liquidity seems to have vanished. People are now freshening for floor, and the FOMO that used to exist around properties has diminished. It's completely reversed. That's a recipe for disaster, because I think that this is going to lead to a bit of a market bottom in the next four to six months.

That's my honest-to-God read on where I feel this was heading. What's funny is that this is without all of the inventory that's supposed to come online from 2027 and 2029. I feel that when that comes around, it's going to propel this illiquidity and bottom-fishing market into a completely different animal.

That's just my opinion. I'm keen to hear what other spectators think. Of course, real estate brokers are trying to shield their properties, so please avoid overtly optimistic opinions. We all know that there's a moral hazard in your recommendations. Keen to hear honest opinions from real investors with cash on the table and people looking to buy into this market and what their real thoughts are.