Europe, the secret outperformer
Its cash generation, broader earnings and lower tech concentration deserve more respect
The writer is senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs
The prevailing narrative around Europe often feels like one of permanent gloom. It’s seen as a slow-growth region with an ageing population, buffeted by external headwinds such as the ongoing energy supply shock and China’s rising export dominance. Yet, this gloomy outlook sits at odds with European stock indices reaching all-time highs and corporate earnings for the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 15 per cent in the first half of 2026.
Indeed, European equities have outperformed the S&P 500 since the start of 2025. More surprisingly, European bank shares — often seen as the epitome of old-economy, low-growth Europe — have outperformed US megacap technology stocks since 2022.
There are many misconceptions about European stocks. The current energy crisis is a case in point. People argue that because Europe lacks energy independence, it is beholden to global energy markets. The equity market, in contrast, has plenty of energy producers in the major indices, such as oil and utilities companies. And higher energy prices often mean higher interest rates, which support banking margins. The sectors that are adversely affected — retailers, autos, travel and leisure, for example — are generally small as a share of the indices.
Many investors conflate Europe’s relatively weak economic growth with its stock market. There is some link, but it is not as great as is often thought. About 40 per cent of the revenue generated by Europe Stoxx companies is homegrown. The rest comes from overseas business, with a quarter stemming from North America. The FTSE 100 is another good example, with more than three-quarters of sales coming from outside the UK.
Profitability has improved too, with both margins and share buybacks for European companies on the rise. Furthermore, Europe’s sector mix offers valuable exposure to fast growing sectors such as infrastructure, defence and electrification. Driven by the pressing need for infrastructure investment alongside protection from potential AI-related disruption, investors have shifted their myopic focus on capital-light businesses — which heavily favoured the US — to Halo stocks (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence).
China’s rise as a global exporter is undeniably hitting German manufacturing — especially sectors such as autos and chemicals — and EU policymakers are looking at measures to protect businesses. But European equities have performed well, ironically far better than Chinese indices. Some of the explanation lies in China’s focus on market share gains versus Europe’s on profitability. But again, much of the explanation is index composition. Auto companies are now just 1 per cent of the European equity market. The majority of listed sectors are less vulnerable to Chinese manufacturing pushing down prices, including financials, energy, media, travel and leisure, and domestic sectors such as real estate, telecoms and utilities.
That all said, there are some areas on which I concur with received wisdom. Europe has not generated the number of high-growth, superstar companies that we have seen emerge in the US. Also, while European households save a lot, they fail to get that capital into risk assets and therefore drive investment and growth in the broader economy. Policy is starting to move the needle on this, but it will take time to shift these large capital pools.
However, while Europe currently lags in direct AI investment, this gap actually forms a key part of its appeal as a risk diversifier. Keep in mind too that we have seen previous waves of technological change in which the first movers and innovators overspend, while the companies that ultimately benefit are those able to take advantage of the original investment. There are also unanswered questions about the ultimate returns and financing demands of the huge wave of hyperscaler investment in the US.
Europe does not need to be recast as flawless to deserve a better narrative. In a cycle where investors are weighing concentration risks, AI funding costs, and ever greater capital requirements among hyperscalers, Europe offers a different set of exposures. It is cheaper than the US across most sales-growth bands and has corporates supporting the market through buybacks and record M&A. It is seeing its strongest investor inflows in a decade, excluding 2021. Europe’s status as a market generating cash rather than spending is looking like its greatest advantage.