r/skidetica

Europe’s stock market is doing something investors have spent much of the past decade assuming it could not: keeping pace with, and in dollar terms outperforming = Wall Street.

The Stoxx Europe 600 has delivered a total return of about 16.4 per cent for dollar-based investors this year, compared with approximately 13.8 per cent from the S&P 500. In local-currency terms, the contest is closer, but that hardly diminishes the change in sentiment.

European equities were once treated as a collection of structurally slow banks, indebted telecoms companies and industrial groups exposed to China. American markets, by contrast, offered technology, growth and seemingly limitless returns from artificial intelligence.

That distinction has not disappeared. But it is becoming less useful.

Banks have benefited from higher interest rates, stronger net interest income and years of balance-sheet repair. Many are generating returns on equity that would have seemed implausible a decade ago, while distributing substantial capital through dividends and share buybacks.

Defence companies have been transformed by Europe’s commitment to higher military spending. Governments are no longer discussing defence budgets as temporary responses to Ukraine. Rearmament has become a multi-year industrial policy, providing manufacturers with longer order books and greater visibility.

Utilities, engineering companies and construction groups are similarly positioned to benefit from spending on electricity networks, renewable energy, data centres, transport and national infrastructure.

These are capital-heavy businesses, but they own tangible assets and generate cash. That looks increasingly appealing as investors question whether the enormous sums being spent on American AI infrastructure will produce equally enormous returns.

Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the Stoxx 600 to 695 and lifted its forecast for European earnings growth in 2026 from 10 to 15 per cent. The bank describes Europe’s capital-intensive companies as “heavy assets, low obsolescence” businesses: companies less likely to be rendered irrelevant by the next software update.

Valuations still favour Europe

Europe’s greatest advantage remains price.

American equities trade at a substantial valuation premium, much of it justified by superior growth and profitability. Yet the S&P 500’s performance is also unusually dependent on a small group of technology companies. Investors buying the index are making an increasingly concentrated bet on AI investment, semiconductor demand and continued earnings dominance.

Europe offers fewer world-leading technology platforms, but it also requires less perfection. Its markets contain globally competitive pharmaceutical, aerospace, luxury, industrial automation and financial companies trading at considerably lower multiples.

That discount has existed for years and is not automatically an opportunity. Cheap markets can remain cheap when economic growth is weak and political fragmentation restrains investment.

What has changed is the earnings direction. European companies are beginning to deliver better results while governments loosen fiscal policy. Anticipated spending on defence and infrastructure is creating a domestic growth story that investors have long struggled to find.

International money is responding. Europe is experiencing one of its strongest years for equity inflows in a decade, suggesting the rally is no longer driven solely by local investors searching for value.

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