u/Crazy-Experience-678

So many silly posts

Quit freaking out about the $4.5b convertible bond offering. They did $4.2b in September 2025 when the stock was $90 and $4.3b in March 2026 when the stock was $115...yet the stock is above $200 today. They are likely to complete the offering within 7 days like before. Convertible bonds dilutes shares but they offer the cheapest rates (highest margins for the business) and the new ones won't dilute until 2030 and 2034.

Nebius is a hypergrowth company, issuing new debt to accelerate growth is part of business. You have to spend money to generate tens of billions in annual revenue (like they are projected to do so before 2030). This is a high volatility stock, 10% daily move is so common nowadays.

Additionally, I think more mega deals like the 20b Microsoft deal and <27b Meta deal probably won't happen. Those deals were meant to be stepping stones to secure loans and accelerate expansion, but they are lower margin deals (hyperscalers like Microsoft dont need to use Nebius's software layer while enterprises do). New compute capacity should go towards high margin "micro" deals like the auction. Four seperate ~billion dollar deals with four customers at higher margins is better than a $4b lower margin deal with another hyperscaler that will likely stop being a customer in 5 years or so.

As for the Nvidia's $500b financing plan, i think companies that struggle to raise money (like Openai) might go for it but the interest rates might be high and not worth pursuing. Nebius can probably get a piece of that $500b if they wanted but the terms will have to be attractive.

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u/Crazy-Experience-678 — 12 hours ago

Did Burry short or not?

Looks like the stock tanked today on rumor of Burry short. I see SimplyWallSt article saying this is unconfirmed and WOLF Financial tweet saying Burry denied shorting NBIS.

I'm holding and adding regardless but would like to know what the truth is. Seems like more stock manipulation after the Situational Awareness fiasco.

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u/Crazy-Experience-678 — 13 days ago

Thoughts on new NBIS business model

Today's new business model announcement (getting a share of revenue/profits by providing software and personel to data center partners). This is a new money maker and could be big long term.

I think they are doing this because they've had to turn away too many customers due to lack of supply. This allows them to make some money off of these "lost" customers using the infrastructure of partners (that lack the technology / expertise to run a AI data center efficiently).

This business model reduces concerns / risks like GPU depreciation (partners' problem not Nebius)
and data center bans (this model expands Nebius's access to data centers).

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u/Crazy-Experience-678 — 1 month ago