r/NBIS_Stock

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

I can only afford 225 shares. Worried that I’m too late and missed all the gains 😞

I’m struggling to find something as compelling as this stock. It feels too late for MU, SNDK as well. Don’t know what to do…

NBIS has that strong golden pocket from 200-208 it tapped strongly and recovered to 215, also looking at the options a gamma squeeze to force price up looks likely to push it to 240-250. We ride with NBIS📈

Excellent analysis from Semianalysis regarding the recent Meta news - The key takeaway is that the market nitially interpreted the news as negative for AI infrastructure providers like Nebius, but SemiAnalysis argues the exact opposite: Meta's AI infrastructure spending is likely to accelerate, creating even more demand for external compute providers rather than less.

My main takeaways:

Meta has already contracted ~10GW of AI compute since early 2024 and is still adding capacity at an enormous pace.

Demand is growing faster than Meta can build, so it will continue relying on third-party providers rather than replacing them.

Meta expanding its own AI infrastructure doesn't mean it stops buying external compute. With huge internal demand coming from their own model training, inference, AI-powered recommendations, ads and AI services, its compute needs are likely to outpace what it can build internally for years.

SemiAnalysis even states that Meta is expected to be a significant driver of future contracted revenue (RPO) growth for companies like Nebius and CoreWeave.

Monday, when the stock market opens, I will be awake to throw $1,800 into 2x leveraged NBIS. I’m holding until it recovers to its 290 range. For context I owned NBIS at 232 and swung it until it got to 272 and owned 8 shares. I bought into AVGO and MRVL but they dipped so I just sold both cut losses and now am going full in on NBIS once again this time at 2x leveraged. It is going to be $NEBX .

I honestly think the market has this completely backwards.

Everyone saw “Meta is getting into AI infrastructure” and instantly assumed it’s bad for Nebius. I really dont get that logic.

If anything this is one of the most bullish things that could’ve happened.

Meta is one of the smartest companies on the planet when it comes to capital allocation. They dont suddenly decide to build an AI infrastructure business unless they think its gonna be absolutely massive over the next 5-10 years. This literally validates the whole AI infra thesis.
And lets be real… Nebius has been building this for years already. They didn’t just wake up yesterday and decide to become an AI cloud. They’ve been focused on AI native infrastructure, GPU clusters, networking, deployment, all the stuff AI companies actually need. Meta wanting in now doesn’t suddenly erase that head start.

People are acting like this is some zero sum game. Its not.
Demand for AI compute is still way ahead of supply. Every major AI company is fighting over GPUs. Enterprises are only just starting to adopt AI. The pie is getting bigger, not smaller.

If Meta thinks selling AI compute is such a great business… why is that bearish for a company thats already doing it?

To me its the opposite. Meta basically just confirmed that AI infrastructure is one of the best businesses to be in. Thats exactly why Nebius exists.

The sell off just feels like headline panic. People saw “Meta” and forgot to actually think through what it means.
Honestly if anything I would’ve expected Nebius to rally on this. Not because Meta somehow helps them directly, but because one of the biggest companies in the world just validated that AI infrastructure is where they want to invest billions. Thats good for the whole sector.
I still think Nebius is years ahead in being AI-first. Meta has the money sure, but experience matters too. Building and operating AI infrastructure at scale isnt something you master overnight just because you decided to enter the market.

I cant tell anyone what the stock should be worth, but I definitely dont think this news makes it worth less. If anything I’d argue it supports a much higher valuation over time. The market seems to be pricing this like Meta killed the story, when to me Meta just confirmed the story is even bigger than people thought.

And dont forget, Meta has already committed up to $27B to Nebius through a long-term AI infrastructure agreement. Companies dont commit that kind of money to a partner they think is about to become irrelevant. They aren’t really competitors today, they’re partners. If anything, Meta’s move into AI infrastructure should pull Nebius forward, not hold it back.

Lots of people recommend this stock for me, am planning to buy the dip

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

Why would you trust my calls? Well, because I called the last bottom — take a look at my previous post: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBIS\_Stock/s/tYrqmv7aYw
Jokes aside, $109-205 isn’t a random number. It’s the S1 technical support and NBIS touched $207.30 intraday on July 2 before bouncing. The three-wave selloff — AI capex fears, Meta Compute, weak jobs — didn’t change a single dollar of Nebius’s $46 billion in contracted revenue from Meta ($27B) and Microsoft ($19.4B).
What changed fundamentally? Nothing. Q1 revenue $399M, up 684% YoY. AI cloud grew 841%. Cost of revenue collapsed from 49% to 26%. Remaining performance obligations: $33.6 billion in signed contracts. Management guiding $3.2B revenue for 2026 and exit ARR of $7-9B — that’s 540% growth from end of 2025.
Meta announced selling excess compute, but Meta is also NBIS’s biggest customer. They’re not torching a $27B infrastructure partner. That’s like your landlord burning down the building because they want to rent out a spare room.
The $350 path: Q2 earnings drop July 28. Capacity additions are back-end weighted Q3/Q4, so the Street is modeling sequential acceleration. If Q2 clears $500M, you get a re-rate. Management guided 40% adjusted EBITDA margins for 2026. When the market sees that margin profile on $800M+ quarterly revenue, the multiple expands.
DCF math: 45% CAGR through 2030, 20% FCF margins at scale, 12.5% WACC = $300-350 fair value. Bull case at 25% FCF margins = $500+. One April analyst model pegged intrinsic value at $607. BofA target $280, Street high $380. At $215 you’re buying below consensus.
The catalyst calendar is stacked — Q2 earnings, Q3 capacity ramp from the new 1.2 GW Pennsylvania site, and the revenue hockey stick management has guided all year. Aschenbrenner didn’t buy 12.4M shares because he thinks this stays at $215.
Risk is real — capex just raised to $20-25B, earnings negative. But $46B in contracted revenue from Meta and Microsoft is a backstop most companies would kill for.
$205 holds. $350 by December. See you there.

Positions: 981 shares, long.

​"To land in Spain, Nebius has leased 18 megawatts of power from Merlin-Edged at its Getafe data center. This operation consolidates the Spanish company as a partner for this type of firm, as it also serves as landlord to the US company CoreWeave, which has a similar business model and partners to those of Nebius."

Although 18 MW might seem like a small amount, something to keep in mind is that Merlin (Nebius's partner) is building two data centers of 1 GW each—making them a pretty attractive partner.