r/NBIS_Stock

What do you all think about this possibility for today’s capital raise despite Nebius sitting on $8B+ in cash?

I'm seeing 10% down today on dilution concerns. 10% feels like panic.

I forecasted around a 12% increase in overall share count by 2031, this is likely a decent chunk of that.

But, does that really put anybodys valuation at risk? My margin of safety in Nebius, despite taking a fairly pessimistic viewpoint, is wide enough to absorb material increases in dilution.

In fact, the dilution impact is far outweighed by price sensitivity in my model. Full impact below.

https://preview.redd.it/cjqlxodrhdkh1.png?width=1460&format=png&auto=webp&s=01b55ba41313fc0f8fcc8b24bdcb512843e717b9

Right now, most new deals are coming in at $20-25m/mw, with surge pricing short term deals exceeding $40m/mw.

At $22 (my forecasted blended rate) - a huge chunk of dilution could be absorbed, and there would still be enough juice in the price to buy today - this is why it's such an important lever.

I've wrote about the 4 main threats to Nebius over the past year or so, but my focus now is almost entirely on pricing power.

The real threat to watch out for, is if Nebius begins announcing huge long term hyperscaler deals - that would suggest they have lost faith in market conditions, and are happy to de-risk and take a lower price per megawatt.

You can read my full write up on the key risks, and my Nebius valuation here: https://rootcapital.substack.com/p/nebius-q2-2026-the-fifth-horseman

(Totally free, no paywall) - I am always looking for feedback on where my assumptions can be challenged.

Why when analysts give price targets is it for stock price and not market cap?

Market cap seems to me to be a more sensible value

Stock price can be effected by dilution and stock splits, probably other things im not thinking off

Interesting pattern I noticed: before today, every Nebius capital raise above $1B came alongside a massive hyperscaler deal.

$3.75B raise → Microsoft
$4.3B raise → Meta
$4.5B raise today → ?

Obviously not saying another deal is guaranteed. They already have plenty of contracted capacity to fund.

But given customer prepayments are already covering a meaningful portion of capex, another $4.5B raise makes me wonder what they see coming.

Sequencing seems curious.

Quit freaking out about the $4.5b convertible bond offering. They did $4.2b in September 2025 when the stock was $90 and $4.3b in March 2026 when the stock was $115...yet the stock is above $200 today. They are likely to complete the offering within 7 days like before. Convertible bonds dilutes shares but they offer the cheapest rates (highest margins for the business) and the new ones won't dilute until 2030 and 2034.

Nebius is a hypergrowth company, issuing new debt to accelerate growth is part of business. You have to spend money to generate tens of billions in annual revenue (like they are projected to do so before 2030). This is a high volatility stock, 10% daily move is so common nowadays.

Additionally, I think more mega deals like the 20b Microsoft deal and <27b Meta deal probably won't happen. Those deals were meant to be stepping stones to secure loans and accelerate expansion, but they are lower margin deals (hyperscalers like Microsoft dont need to use Nebius's software layer while enterprises do). New compute capacity should go towards high margin "micro" deals like the auction. Four seperate ~billion dollar deals with four customers at higher margins is better than a $4b lower margin deal with another hyperscaler that will likely stop being a customer in 5 years or so.

As for the Nvidia's $500b financing plan, i think companies that struggle to raise money (like Openai) might go for it but the interest rates might be high and not worth pursuing. Nebius can probably get a piece of that $500b if they wanted but the terms will have to be attractive.

don‘t shit your pants because of the recent price action. just use it to make money and buy more shares at these prices. it’s a gift. and if it drops lower? just buy more! in a few years you will thank yourself.

Macro backdrop + dilution (shorting bond arbitrage + dilution being priced in) still can not push NBIS back down below 240.

Institutions accumulated. Shorts will definitely cover as they can see downward pressure is being exhausted despite all the "bearish news" having diminishing impact.

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

Golden information and commentary. Please share your thoughts and insights!

No, seriously. And I’m not talking about the constant roller coaster double digit moves on the daily either. FWIW I’m bullish on NBIS for the business model, for the professional leadership, and many other reasons. I’m talking about the ethical position supporting society’s collective race to the bottom, and for the known and perhaps unknown environmental consequences these massive data centers pose. My small town recently had an uproar similar to what we’ve heard from Vineland, New Jersey. Overwhelming opposition to new construction in an otherwise very industry friendly community. Unlike Vineland, this one got shot down by higher ups, and we’re hearing it from all the sides in the news. It’s the only issue of its magnitude that doesn’t seem entirely partisan in completely refuting DC buildout and yet everyone on here to make a buck can only talk about how great the company is. So what, if it exists, is the actual ethical case for society to invest trillions of dollars into the expansion of this technology and more pointedly, data center buildout? How do y’all sleep at night in supporting this company while knowing the irrefutable harm it will cause to our environment and ultimately human life?

I live close to the vineland data center should i drive by & upload some pictures. Or will that not be needed lol.

Don't bother asking. Whatever you're thinking about, the market thought about it three quarters ago. Think Apple is about to crush earnings? Priced in. Think Tesla is secretly working on a flying car? Priced in. You work the night shift at Wendy's and discover the Frosty machine is powered by a miniature nuclear reactor? Believe it or not, priced in. You really think some random piece of information has escaped the attention of millions of investors, hedge funds, algorithms, insiders, analysts, economists, and one unemployed guy with twelve monitors in his bedroom?
The market knows.
It knew you were going to read this post before you opened Reddit. Your future salary, your next impulse purchase, the car you'll buy in six years, the three subscriptions you'll forget to cancel, and the exact number of times you'll order food because you're too lazy to cook are already sitting somewhere inside a discounted cash-flow model. Nothing surprises the market. Aliens land tomorrow? Priced in. The moon explodes? Priced in.
Scientists discover that the entire universe is actually running on a Dell laptop in some higher-dimensional office cubicle? The semiconductor exposure was priced in years ago. Your thoughts are not alpha. Your predictions are not unique. Somewhere, some quant has already converted your entire personality into a factor and backtested it against the S&P 500. So before you ask whether the next iPhone, election, recession, rate cut, product launch, scandal, breakthrough, apocalypse, or heat death of the universe is "priced in," save yourself the trouble.
Yes. It's priced in.

I thought I would do a recap of what I heard and a few thoughts about the Vineland hearing and process. I didn’t listen to all of it, but I did at the beginning and checked in through the evening to see what was happening, and then in the last hour I listened to the public commenting and the vote.

The one testimony that I thought represented the biggest risk was the engineer that said he had reviewed the plans and didn’t believe the runoff water system was adequate. The board did acknowledge that he was an expert witness, so that rang a couple of alarm bells for me. However, it’s a public hearing, so there wasn’t a deep dive on his concerns, but the Data One engineer did reiterate that the plan was properly done. In the end, the board noted it, but it didn’t matter.

I won’t go into all the silly questions and comments from the public commenting session, but it struck me as to how much factually incorrect information was being spread. Notions like no taxes would be paid for 20 years (false), upset about the landscaping (it’s under construction), water and power use concerns, terrorist attacks, LP gas is dangerous, and my favorite – it’s a Ponzi scheme funded by bitcoin!

But here’s the thing – SustainSJ was not interested in learning anything, or improving the outcome, they were there to stop it. Nothing any official or engineer said was going to make any difference for them. Their entire goal was to stop construction of the Data Center. Impassioned pleas about how the board had a responsibility, and the power, to put a halt to this madness were numerous.

However, one of the board members actually called out Data One and Nebius for being a good corporate citizen. He mentioned that they had worked hard to improve the plan, and doing things like switching from the rather noisy Bergen power system (which was already approved) to Bloom Energy was something that Nebius brought to the table when they didn’t have to. They also worked hard on noise abatement changes, even when they were already in compliance.

He also noted that Nebius could have drilled their own wells and taken the water that way, but that the city water system had plenty of supply, which actually was good revenue for the city. It’s not raising water rates, at all.  

I saw a post on X (and didn’t save it), that cited a study by an outside group that has a history of being negative on data centers, and their response was that they thought the plan was exemplary and should be the model for other data center projects. Whoa. Nebius is definitely the good guy tuna company on the porpoise team (IYKYK).

A few more notes:

One of the board member did say that they could have done a better job of communications over the last couple of years. Not sure if that was lip service or if they really felt that way, but did call it out.

I learned a lot about how this data center water usage compares to other businesses. While 8 million gallons of water (the yearly base case) sounds like a lot, a typical golf course uses 30-100 million gallons of water per year. A medium-size restaurant uses 2 million. Other industries will use a lot more than that, and no one would be complaining if any of those were going in, except it’s a data center.

The noise complaints revolved around the construction, not the operations. I get it, but they are complying with the building codes for hours of work, and other regs, but building stuff happens. Get over it.

One of the funnier moments for me was when a board member said that it wasn’t up to him to decide what was being built, and that owners had the right to do what they wanted with the land as long as it met building codes. Well, that got hoots and exasperation from the peanut gallery. He went on to say, jokingly, that he would have rather have a golf course, but he didn’t have the right to dictate anything like that, and the board’s job was to make sure whatever was being built was compliant. He’s right.

I didn’t think the board would vote no, but I also wasn’t sure they wouldn’t postpone a decision to evaluate legitimate concerns. However, this has dragged on for months, and everyone wanted to bring it to a conclusion.

I’m sure there will be lawsuits (who is funding that?) and other machinations to stop the data center. But, in the end, it’s over. The good guys won.