Hi, this is my third time major swing trading NBIS. (Donr many small trades as well)
I like the recent developments, I think the openAI news is a nothing burger.
I believe they will beat Q3 expectations by a lot from the contracted revenue.
Easy money.
For everyone here who is invested in nbis and other stocks ofcourse, is your portfolio going down since the end of June when it was the top for most AI stocks?
Just a note:
Nebius serves open weight models in the token factory and doesn't even have a deal with openai or anthropic, so we are good long term, because open weight models will always become better. But every now and then we will face problems from both of those companies, especially if they ipo.
One news from openai tomorrow and we go back up immediately
Update: all of this was because of fake news, make america great again. In a serious note, the 50b from openai is the net revenue and the 70b is the gross revenue.
I know this may get heavily downvoted, but i can’t help myself. Are you guys never worried about how the current situation in the market can affect the global AI buildout?
I feel it’s fair to ask this question, because i have 70% of my money in this stock.
Wars, high oil prices, increasing inflation, rate hikes on the horizon, mortgage rates going up rapidly.
The buildout is very big and very expensive. And it’ll get even more expensive if inflation keeps rising, because then the Fed wants to keep hiking.
If inflation keeps going up, people will lessen their spending and big companies will earn less.
If suddenly a company chooses to cancel big build projects, i fear that it can create a domino effect that will make others do the same.
While i have all these thoughts, i still think Nebius is the best stock i’ve ever had. The team is very professional, competent, hardworking. And the growth is extreme. Therefore i will hold on to my stocks, but i just really hope that the situation in the market will improve.
What are your thoughts?
- Are any of you worried?
- Do you guys think the wars will stop soon?
- Is this just a bump on the way?
- Will the buildout continue as normal, but with increased capex?
It's sometimes good to step back and relish the difference between Nebius and their competitors. Watching Nebius execute at the level they are at, day after day, is exquisite.
-----------
IREN continues to come up in our conversations with neocloud customers, and usually for the wrong reasons. In Prince George and Mackenzie in Northern BC, Canada, we’ve heard the stories: multi-day power outages, network upgrades, storage failures, air quality controls leading to link flaps, XIDs everywhere. The #1 worst site in the industry, according to users.
And we are some of their users, as we’ve gotten to test IREN GPUs from multiple providers that resell their capacity. A lot of our users we are hearing from who aren’t having a good time aren’t renting from IREN resellers, but from IREN themselves.
With that said, the new builds in Childress and Sweetwater look much better (read: not N+0 power, cooling, and ISPs!). We’ve covered plenty about these sites in our Datacenter Model; suffice it to say that despite all the technical shortcomings in their cloud services, we expect the $2.1B investment from NVIDIA will help them cut fewer corners this time around.
We recommend that IREN stop falsely claiming to offer managed clusters in public investment materials, such as in their most recent 10-K, where they claimed to "own and operate" all layers of the stack, including "managed cloud services."
Their CCO was correct when he recently said, "we don't have any live managed services today."
IREN should focus on their bare metal offerings, where there is plenty of market demand for their services.
https://www.9fin.com/insights/goldman-sachs-billion-nebius-high-yield
According to the 9fin article, Nebius was among several data-center borrowers that “balked at financing costs” during September's preliminary marketing.
That suggests:
