u/PatriotCaptainCanada

Why would you trust my calls? Well, because I called the last bottom — take a look at my previous post: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBIS\_Stock/s/tYrqmv7aYw
Jokes aside, $109-205 isn’t a random number. It’s the S1 technical support and NBIS touched $207.30 intraday on July 2 before bouncing. The three-wave selloff — AI capex fears, Meta Compute, weak jobs — didn’t change a single dollar of Nebius’s $46 billion in contracted revenue from Meta ($27B) and Microsoft ($19.4B).
What changed fundamentally? Nothing. Q1 revenue $399M, up 684% YoY. AI cloud grew 841%. Cost of revenue collapsed from 49% to 26%. Remaining performance obligations: $33.6 billion in signed contracts. Management guiding $3.2B revenue for 2026 and exit ARR of $7-9B — that’s 540% growth from end of 2025.
Meta announced selling excess compute, but Meta is also NBIS’s biggest customer. They’re not torching a $27B infrastructure partner. That’s like your landlord burning down the building because they want to rent out a spare room.
The $350 path: Q2 earnings drop July 28. Capacity additions are back-end weighted Q3/Q4, so the Street is modeling sequential acceleration. If Q2 clears $500M, you get a re-rate. Management guided 40% adjusted EBITDA margins for 2026. When the market sees that margin profile on $800M+ quarterly revenue, the multiple expands.
DCF math: 45% CAGR through 2030, 20% FCF margins at scale, 12.5% WACC = $300-350 fair value. Bull case at 25% FCF margins = $500+. One April analyst model pegged intrinsic value at $607. BofA target $280, Street high $380. At $215 you’re buying below consensus.
The catalyst calendar is stacked — Q2 earnings, Q3 capacity ramp from the new 1.2 GW Pennsylvania site, and the revenue hockey stick management has guided all year. Aschenbrenner didn’t buy 12.4M shares because he thinks this stays at $215.
Risk is real — capex just raised to $20-25B, earnings negative. But $46B in contracted revenue from Meta and Microsoft is a backstop most companies would kill for.
$205 holds. $350 by December. See you there.

Positions: 981 shares, long.