u/DawnofSouth

25 runs in two games.

Boston won the first two games of this series 11-1 and 9-4. So, you’d think the obvious play would be to expect another shootout.

But the big money that I noticed on this game is split on the 8.5 total..

On one you have anonymous trader who went in with $160K Under 8.5 for ~$294K!

Then you got pleaseplease123 who went in with $100K Over 8.5 for ~$219K..

That’s more than $260K between two traders on opposite sides.

Personally, I’m actually leaning Under.

Tolle is the big reason. He’s sitting at 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.02 K/9 and just went 8 scoreless innings in his previous start, allowing two hits. 

Pfaadt is more interesting. His last five starts have produced a ridiculous 0.54 ERA, but his strikeout rate has fallen rather than risen. That makes me think some of the recent run prevention could be difficult to repeat.

One other thing that could contribute is the bullpens are the fatigued. Both have been used heavily, and if either starter exits early this thing could get ugly quickly.

Still, I’m willing to fade the first two games.

Slight Under 8.5 with slight Red Sox lean.

Curious whether anyone else here is taking the Under after the first two games..

Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo Musetti is coming up in a few hours, and I’m leaning on.. but the interesting part for me is that the numbers don’t show a huge edge at the current price.

Polymarket has Musetti around 73 cents, while I been trying to dig in on various analytics site, and they got him at 71%.

The underlying numbers do favor Musetti..

Overall Elo: 1865 vs 1735

Hard-court Elo: 1797 vs 1599

Musetti hard-court hold: 85.5%

Faria hard-court hold: 73.6%

Faria’s hard-court second-serve points won: just 48%

That second-serve number is particularly interesting. If Musetti can consistently attack Faria’s second serve, he should have plenty of opportunities to take control of rallies.

But there are a couple of reasons I’m not treating Musetti as a lock. He has had injury issues this year, and his 2026 tiebreak record is only 3-4. Faria is also coming off a pretty impressive run in Cincinnati, including the upset over Shelton where he saved 11 of 12 break points.

There is also no previous H2H between them, so there’s no matchup history to lean on. 

The market is actually pretty close to other available pricing too.. one current preview had Musetti around -280,

FWIW, I looked at top holders on respective sides..

On one you have AGUGava who went in with $7,200 on Musetti for a potential of $10K!
Then you have kingflop who went in with $2,338 on Faria for $8,661

AGUGava is currently down around $63K overall, while kingflop is down around $7K..

I’m on Musetti here, but at ~73¢ I’m not sure there’s enough edge to get excited about the price.

All it took was one statement from Trump himself, and the odds rallied.

There’s a market on Poly for Who will Trump meet in 2026, and Kim being one of the options.

This particular market had spent a long time drifting down from peak 70% range to hovering around the low teens.

And then, the the latest developments happened..

Initially, WSJ reported that Trump was pushing his aides to arrange a meeting with Kim, potentially during his planned November Asia trip around the APEC summit in China. 

And then Trump basically confirmed the story himself.

Earlier today, when asked about this, Trump basically said Yes. Washington Post, and Reuters say he told reporters that he expects to meet Kim later this year..

The market jumped to around 40% Yes atm.

But, I think 30–40% is a pretty reasonable range, despite the huge move.

A few things caught my eye..

Trump and Kim have already met three times during Trump’s first term.

Trump on Sunday ordered the U.S. to scale back military exercises with South Korea, partly due to his relationship with Kim and also Seoul’s refusal to take part in U.S. actions against Iran. 

But here’s the catch, Kim isn’t an APEC member. North Korea isn’t one of APEC’s 21 member economies. 

So this isn’t like Kim will be at APEC, therefore Trump can meet him..

But, it would have to be a separately arranged encounter, potentially mediated through China?

And I haven’t seen confirmation that Kim is actually planning to attend Shenzhen or that a meeting has been formally scheduled.

That uncertainty is basically why I’m at soft leaning Yes rather than strong Yes.

FWIW, what I really like about this market is the resolution criteria are surprisingly broad.

It just requires Trump and Kim simply have to be present and interact with each other in person sometime between now to Dec 31. 

So even a relatively short diplomatic meet would appear to qualify without any sort of understanding about nuclear deal or anything else...

And, it's why 40% still feels about right to me..

The question is whether Kim actually wants the meeting badly enough to show up. 

Former defence minister of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections got me looking at the two Ukraine election markets on Polymarket.

There are actually two very different questions:

Ukraine election called by Dec 31? where the odds are 15% for Yes

and, Ukraine election held by Dec 31? where the odds are 7% for Yes

The distinction is pretty important.

The first market resolves Yes if an election is scheduled by Dec 31. The second requires an election to actually take place by Dec 31.

Fedorov’s call is obviously a meaningful political development, but the reaction from Ukrainian lawmakers seems largely pretty unenthusiastic. From what I read on Reuters, they describe his push as a major new challenge to Zelenskyy. And on Politico, they highlighted how lawmakers and officials continue to point toward the practical/legal problems of wartime voting...

The really interesting part for me is the logistics.

Ukraine has millions of citizens displaced abroad, soldiers spread across the country including on frontline areas. An active war makes polling infrastructure itself a security concern. Ukraine’s electoral authorities and European partners have actually been working on out-of-country voting for future post-war elections, which tells you how much preparation is involved even under the assumption that elections happen after the war. 

Then there’s also a legal hurdle.. a Ukrainian parliamentary working group said in May that it had reached a understanding that elections cannot be held under martial law. 

So I’m leaning No on both for now...even if the odds on Yes on called by market saw a small spike!

Even the market itself is basically saying.. a political announcement is comparitively easier than actually getting the country to the polling stations.

The upside on No isn’t huge, but at these prices it has that “bond-like” feel, and assuming the underlying situation doesn’t change dramatically.

Spotted some interesting positioning on the Florida GOP governor market right before resolution. And, I'm sure this happens on other markets too..

No on James Fishback becoming the Republican nominee was trading around 99¢, and some traders were putting serious size behind it..

The top holders of NO side included.,..

gotigers who's down $1M went in with $33,267 and got $33,570 return (+$303).

Then I saw, metsW who's up $19.3K, and they went in with $29,730 and had $30,000 return (+$270).

It wasn't just pretty serious sized ones, here's BamseOgKylling who went in $1,982 for $2,000 return (+$18 is all it was..)

While I'm sure there were many, but these top holders roughly put in $65K deployed to make ~$591 if No resolved.

And it did.

But, the interesting part isn’t really the outcome, it’s the math behind these late-stage 99¢ trades.

At 99¢, every $1,000 invested only generates about $10 of gross profit if the contract resolves your way.

Wanna scale and make $300? You need roughly $30K of exposure.

So these traders are essentially accepting a tiny return in exchange for holding a position for what appears to have been a very short period before resolution...probably few hours.

I’m curious how people think about this type of trade.

Is it an interesting way to deploy capital when the outcome is extremely likely, or does the tiny upside simply not compensate for the remaining risk?

The 99¢ price looks almost risk-free at first glance, but the position sizing is where this gets interesting for me..

This is the kind of money flow I love finding before an MLB game..

Two high stake positions have landed on opposite sides of Tigers–Pirates..

On one you have, SDTrading who went in with $21K on Tigers at 42 cents targeting $50K!

And, on other you have pleaseplease123 who went in with $45,386 on Pirates at 58 cents for opotential of $78,258..

FWIW, SDTrading up +$182K all-time, while pleaseplease123 is around -$1.1M all-time.

The pitching numbers are actually pretty fascinating between the two probables...

Montero for Tigers is at 3.22 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 6.02 K/9

Ashcraft for Pirates is at 3.82 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.87 K/9

So Detroit wins the obvious ERA/WHIP battle.

But Ashcraft’s .284 xwOBA-against vs. .290 for Montero says the quality gap is basically negligible, while the strikeout difference is huge.

And Ashcraft just threw a complete game with 10 strikeouts and one run allowed against Miami. 

There’s also a pretty interesting schedule/bullpen angle.. as Pittsburgh’s bullpen was working harder Monday, but Ashcraft’s ability to go deep is kinda nice and what you want coming off that workload.

I’m personally leaning Pirates, but not enough to want to follow either traders blindly.

Wondering if SDTrading see something in Tigers that the market hasn't priced in.. or the other trader took a position by pitching numbers or just went with flow of market..

Spotted another interesting Polymarket trader named KingOfEsports.

The account joined this month, and has already made 43 predictions, and they're currently up $81K.

From what I see, they're focused on Dota 2, Counter-Strike and League of Legends, and they do both outright ML, and handicaps. So, they're pretty much concentrated..

Amongst the closed ones, the one I liked were..

$19K on MOUZ vs PARIVISION where they got +$10.85K in return

and $11K on Team Resilience for they got +$13.23K in return

And that’s just from the positions visible in the screenshots. But, the ones that are not are probably ones they took an L!

And, also this isn’t someone just going in with $50-$100 across hundreds of markets. But, they’re routinely parking $10K–$30K into individual esports, often around the 40–65¢ range.

FWIW, the account currently has 11 active positions, so there’s still a pretty substantial amount of risk on the table.

And it’s not limited to one game either..

They are currently maintaining on Dota 2/CS2/LoL. Also, few on game/map handicaps.

Wonder if this is someone who has a genuine esports model/order-flow edge rather than simply being a fan betting on teams they like..

Anyways, kinda felt, this is probably one of the more interesting new esports accounts I’ve come across...

BUT, this is another market which I haven't ventured, so was basically looking for inspiration, and ended up here.. anyone here into esports?

I’m starting to get into ATP combos, and was looking at Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev in Cincinnati in a couple of hours from now..

The match is around 56% Medvedev on Polymarket right now, but this caught my attention..

A trader, TennisLove, has $78,100 on Medvedev at 56¢, targeting $139,856.

And this isn’t some random account.. they’ve made just 6 predictions, and they're up $237.5K all-time, and so far, every visible prediction has been won

Their previous positions are pretty wild too. They got returns of around $109K on Jodar–Fils, $50K on Shelton–Nakashima, $38K on Makhachev–Garry and $25K on Rublev–Carreno Busta.

And, they now went in on Medvedev which is their only active prediction...

And I’m actually on the same side here. So that was pleasing to see..

Medvedev is No. 7 vs Nakashima at No. 22, and he leads their H2H 2-0. 

Nakashima is obviously dangerous right now. He just made his first Masters 1000 final in Montreal, but that run also means a pretty significant workload heading into Cincinnati. Shelton beat him 6-3, 7-6 in the final. 

Medvedev, meanwhile, had the much lighter Montreal workload after losing early and then came into Cincinnati fresher.

Tbh, where I was looking for inspiration was cause the market isn’t giving Medvedev a huge edge. Broader sports books from what I see have him around -125 to -139, which roughly translates to the mid/high-50s if I have it right. 

So I’m not calling this some lock. Nakashima’s current form makes this a legitimately tricky matchup.

But if I’m already leaning Medvedev, seeing TennisLove go in with $78K on the same side is certainly a nice confirmation.

Anyone else following this trader? Six predictions is obviously way too small a sample to call them a GOAT, but $237K+ P&L after nailing all six trades is pretty ridiculous.

I stumbled across Weatherstappen and their profile is honestly fascinating.

They’ve made 1,819 predictions and are sitting at roughly $45K in all-time P&L.

Some of their trades that caught my eye were..

“Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12?”

They put just $1.40 into YES at basically 0.1¢ and eventually collected $1,400.

That’s a ridiculous ~1,000x return from a $1.40 position.

And from what I see, it doesn’t look like a one-off position either... I saw an external analytics site and it revealed something more, they got a 99% win-rate..

FWIW, they’re basically a weather-market specialist focused on Madrid, Singapore, Lagos, Jakarta.. among few other top cities.

They also don’t just hold everything till the market resolves.

For example, on one of the Munich 14°C market, they went in with $27 and eventually exited around $1,043, despite the position having a much higher return if held till end.

Wonder if this is someone who..knows which weather markets are mispriced

or someone who knows to get into positions extremely early

or potentially using better/localized weather information

Because turning $1.40 into $1,400 makes for a great screenshot.

But doing it while building a ~$45K P&L across thousands of predictions is the part that has me curious.

Anyone had success with these weather markets?

The NATO-Russia military clash market caught my eye again after the latest Baltic development..

This time its the Admiral Kasatonov, a Russian warship capable of carrying Zircon hypersonic missiles, reportedly was spotted near Germany’s Fehmarn island. From what I read on The Telegraph, its tracker was reportedly switched off, but it’s the second Russian warship seen in the Baltic in recent weeks, following the Admiral Levchenko. 

And, yes the market reacted on Poly, but not massively..

December 31 where the odds were 22% jumped to 24%, while the relatively closer October 31 market saw odds rise from 10% to 12%

FWIW, the Dec. 31 market is already above $1.2M in volume.

TBH, this market isn’t asking whether Russia will threaten NATO, violate airspace, deploy ships near NATO territory, but it requires an actual military encounter involving use of actual force & equipment.

So this latest deployment doesn’t qualify by itself.

Also, worth noting, if Russia deliberately attacked a NATO member’s military, we’re in a very different situation. Article 5 says an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all. While that doesn’t mean every NATO country automatically declares war but each ally decides what assistance it considers necessary..neverthless there would be some sort of escalation..

And that’s why I think the distinction between the previous drone incidents off Romania, and a genuine attack matters.

A drone wandering into Romanian airspace is one thing.

BUT, a deliberate Russian missile strike on a NATO military target is something else entirely. Am not really sure if Russia wants that at this very point of time.. but with Putin you never know.

I’m not saying 24¢ is necessarily a easily lean on Yes. Russia has plenty of incentive to posture without actually crossing that line.

But with another Russian warship now operating in the Baltic, I’m definitely watching this market more closely.

Polymarket is basically calling this a coin flip atm

Tigers at 51 cents / Pirates at 50¢

And the big money is split too.

An anonymous trader who’s down around $1.4M went in with $28.9K on Detroit at 52 cents, for a potential of $55.6K.

On the other side, pleaseplease123 with in with a bigger $91.4K on Pittsburgh around 49 cents, targeting roughly $186K.

The pitching matchup is interesting..

Framber Valdez: 4.26 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 133 IP

Carmen Mlodzinski: 3.79 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 99.2 IP

If you just look at ERA, it’s pretty easy to talk yourself into Pittsburgh.

But Valdez has the better underlying starcast number in the analysis I found (.322 vs .346) and a much larger workload.

The bigger concern for Pittsburgh is Mlodzinski’s recent form. He’s been hit hard in his last couple starts, while Pittsburgh’s bullpen has also been used fairly heavily.

Meanwhile, Detroit is coming off a rough stretch, so I’m not exactly rushing to back them either.

I don't trust myself with the read to go for ML. But, I’m leaning Over 7.5 at 58 cents.

Two starters with ugly recent form, and potentially taxed bullpens along with a total sitting at 7.5 makes me much more comfortable taking a side on the runs rather than guessing who wins.

Anyone leaning on Pirates/Tigers ML?

Before today, I’d have looked at the market and saw the odds which are at NO at 82 cents, and YES at 18 cents, and thought NO was pretty straightforward.

Then Ronaldo drops this earlier today..

“This is probably my last year of football.”

He’s also said he has his future “all mapped out” and talked about travel, family and life after football. 

But the devil is the deets both his statement, and on Poly too..

First off on his side, he meant that through his contract. FWIW, his Al-Nassr contract runs until June 2027. 

So if he simply finishes the current season and retires when the contract expires, that’s not necessarily enough for this market.

Then there's the Polymarket side, the market specifically asks whether he ANNOUNCES retirement in 2026.

And the rules require a clear announcement that he’s retiring from club-level professional football, with the retirement taking effect immediately or before the next club season.

So today’s quote is probably evidence toward YES, but I’m not convinced it’s the qualifying announcement yet.

That's not all, there’s also the 1,000-goal chase.

He’s on 976 goals, so 24 goals away from the milestone. 

At 41, with a contract already extending into 2027, I could absolutely see him finishing this season, chasing 1,000, and only formally announcing retirement later.

TBH, NO still feels like the side I’d rather lean on.

But YES is no longer something I’d casually dismiss after his latest interview.

This account cbgjvfy… joined in June 2026, has just one prediction, and that's on GTA 6 launch postponed again.

They went in roughly with $5.1K Yes in at ~10.4 cents, targeting $50K.

The odds for this is down to 9 cents, so the market has moved against them slightly. But they’re still holding.

And honestly, I’m curious what their study is...

GTA VI is currently scheduled for November 19, 2026, and Take-Two has incorporated that date into its financial guidance. Its June, Q1FY27 results reported last week left its projected $8.0–$8.2B in FY2027 net bookings unchanged, with the GTA VI launch being a primary driver. 

FWIW, there have been two official delays already.. from the original 2025 window to May 26, 2026, and then from May to Nov. 19. 

So yes, Rockstar has a history of pushing dates, especially with GTA VI.

But I’m struggling to find a current catalyst for another delay.

The latest Take-Two earnings data and commentary all continue to point Nov. 19 as the launch date, and pre-orders have been live since June 25. 

There are also signs of massive demand. Sensor Tower’s tracker has reportedly put pre-orders around 4.3M units, while separate reporting says an extraordinary 89% of pre-orders are for the $100 Ultimate Edition. 

So at 9¢, this is obviously a very standalone trade, but if you believe there’s some undisclosed development problem.

But, that's what would be a question though if this trader has any mileage..

What does this trader know/think that justifies a ~$5K trade against a release date that Take-Two is building its entire FY2027 outlook around?

Personally, I’m not buying the delay thesis yet.

But a new account putting $5K behind a single 9–10¢ outcome is exactly the kind of position I find interesting on Polymarket.

This Hormuz market keeps giving us the same headline in slightly different forms.

This particular one is between Iran and Oman for the Hormuz, and the news pushed the Aug. 31 odds from roughly 21% to 34% in six hours, with Iran saying it has reached an understanding with Oman on the transit routes through the Strait and that the agreement is being finalized.

But here’s what caught my attention..

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard this.

On Aug 5, Iran said it had already reached an understanding with Oman on the proposed shipping route..

Then..

Aug 7: U.S. official says “we expect a deal soon.” 

Aug 8: Iran again says the deal is close, but it isn’t enough by itself to reopen Hormuz. 

Aug 9: Iran again confirms deal is in its “final stages.” 

Aug 11: negotiations still described as progressing, while Iran continued saying Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington met its conditions. 

And now we’re hearing again that Iran and Oman are finalizing essentially the same framework.

FWIW, the market rules specifically say that statements about ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement don’t qualify.

But, both Iran and Oman need to announce acceptance of the same qualifying agreement. A joint statement qualifies, or separate announcements can qualify if they clearly establish that both sides accepted the same agreement.

However, I’m still leaning NO on Aug 22 (~83% odds atm).

For Aug 31 (~66% NO / 34% YES), I’m slightly confident. I kinda feel today’s development may be more substantive than earlier headlines, but it would still be largely NO!

But I had a feeling about this on the previous headlines too..it's just the days have passed..

The other thing worth watching is the actual Strait. Reuters reported only five commodity-vessel transits Saturday and zero Sunday, versus 31 the previous weekend, so the operational situation clearly hasn’t normalized yet. 

Is anyone sliding with YES after today’s announcement? or are we once again pricing the headline “deal is close” before the actual agreement exists?

Genuinely curious how people here approach combos.

I’ve been experimenting with tiny positions, usually $1–$2 till I start to nail it, and my biggest problem is that I can get the individual picks right but struggle to get all the legs home.

Last night I had..

Mets/ Marlins / Rangers

And, $1 would’ve paid $5.57.

The initial ones went to plan, but once Rangers started looking shaky, I put another $1 on the Athletics, and thankfully it returned $2.63.

So the hedge helped, but obviously it doesn’t solve the underlying problem.. I still can’t hit the full combo.

And that’s what I’m trying to understand.

If I have three positions where I think each one has, say, a 65–70% chance individually, combining them means the probability of all three hitting drops pretty quickly.

So maybe the mistake is trying to maximize payout rather than finding the best combination of genuine edges.

For those of you who are actually good at combos, how do you build them?

2-leg high-confidence combos?

3-leg combos for better payout?

or anyone had luck with 4-leg combo?

And, what's the strategy you followed when you got that right?

Because getting 2/3 right feels incredibly easy.

Getting 3/3 right apparently requires divine intervention for me. 

Cubs vs Cardinals starts in a just over an hour, and I keep seeing the same thing across the Polymarket order flow for now.. many of the larger money is leaning Chicago.

But, a few positions caught my eye were

One froom quavoo where they went in with $33K on Cubs -1.5 @ 46 cents targeting $73.7K potential!

Then, you got SDTrading who put in $26.5K on Over 7.5 @ 53 cents targeting potential $50K!

And, lastly coltsmildx who went in with $12K on Cubs ML @ 64 cents for a $18.8K potential!

I’m personally interested in the Cubs ML, not necessarily the total.

For context, the pitching matchup is..

Clay Holmes for Cubs who's 2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.31 K/9

and, Matthew Liberatore for Cardinals who's 5.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.71 K/9

On paper, that’s a pretty significant gap in favor of Holmes. The underlying numbers support it too with Holmes’ starcast against is around .317 vs .342 for Liberatore.

But, one thing though Liberatore has actually pitched reasonably well against Chicago this season going for 6 ER over 14 innings (at 3.86 ERA). So, I don’t think this is as simple as Holmes good, Liberatore bad sentiment 

However, the broader context favors Chicago.

The Cubs enter at 71–51, while St. Louis is 61–60, and Chicago has won 8 of its last 10. And, they’re also at Wrigley for this one, the home!

The bullpen angle is probably the only thing stopping me from going harder. St. Louis used no relievers yesterday, while Chicago used two, so there’s a small freshness advantage for the Cardinals. But it’s not enough of a gap for me to override the starting-pitching and overall team-quality difference.

Holmes is the one uncertainty. This is only his second start since returning from a fractured fibula, so workload, and efficiency is something to watch. 

Currently, the odds are Cubs 64 cents, and Cardinals 37 cents!

And that’s roughly consistent with the broader market, where Chicago is around a -180 favorite. So I’m not seeing some massive hidden edge at 64 cents..

But if I’m choosing a side..

Cubs ML over Cubs -1.5, and total would be the last..

The high stake positions are just another reason I’m comfortable with that lean.

It was never really a question of whether Nigel Farage would win Clacton.

But if there was any question about his political standing after the £5m donor controversy, I think today’s result answered at least part of it.

Farage won with 22,239 votes translating to 63.3%

Count Binface won with 9,455 votes, approx ~27%

And this was a ballot with 34 candidates after the major parties decided not to contest the seat. 

And, obviously this isn't a normal election. But Farage still comfortably won his seat back after voluntarily resigning it to force this by-election.

And that’s why I’m looking at this market on Poly..

“Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?”

Currently odds are at YES: 14¢, and NO: 86¢

I’m leaning NO.

There is a very real risk here. The parliamentary standards investigation into Farage is now listed as active again, following his re-election. If the investigation ultimately results in a serious sanction, things could get ugly.

But that’s a lot of conditional steps between where we are today and to Farage is no longer Reform leader.

And importantly, losing his seat is not the same thing as losing the Reform leadership. There's a lot process in UK for that including securing of 10% eligible voters to sign.

Meanwhile, politically, Farage remains the face of Reform.

Yes, Labour has been gaining ground since Andy Burnham became PM, and Reform’s national position has weakened from the huge leads it enjoyed earlier this year. 

But I don’t see an obvious succession mechanism inside Reform that makes Farage out as leader in 2026 a 14% proposition.

Fwiw, the top holders are interesting..

On one side, you have conotocaurius who went in with ~$9.9K on NO @ 77¢ odds for potential ~$12.8K

And, you have abdkxrhxr who went in with ~$5.1K on YES @ 41¢ for potential ~$12.6K

But at 14¢, you’re essentially betting that the investigation escalates and that it translates into Farage actually leaving the Reform leadership this year.

That’s a pretty specific chain. I’m leaning NO.

Not saying it’s literally free money.

But this is starting to look like a bond with a very obvious political tail risk attached.

Can’t believe we’re already at the Eliminator of The Hundred!

Sunrisers Leeds vs Southern Brave in today's women's cricket game.

If you're short on time, and can't read everything below, then just know, I’m on Sunrisers Leeds.

So, the market has them around 64¢ vs 37¢, and honestly I think that’s pretty fair.

What makes me lean Sunrisers is the trajectory of these two teams.

Both finished the league stage 5–3, but Sunrisers had the much better NRR..

Sunrisers +1.031, Brave +0.107

And their recent form is completely different..

Sunrisers: L-W-W-W-W

Brave: W-W-L-L-L

Sunrisers have genuinely figured things out at the right time.

The biggest change was Phoebe Litchfield being moved up the order. She has been outstanding since the switch and is now one of the tournament’s leading run scorers. Annabel Sutherland has also been ridiculous with both bat and ball, while Deepti Sharma has quietly been one of their biggest weapons with 12 wickets. 

And their bowling has enough depth with Jonassen, Cross, Deepti, Sutherland to make life difficult if Brave don’t get a fast start.

Brave are the interesting counterargument.

Their bowling attack is legit. Tilly Corteen-Coleman has 13 wickets, while Sophie Molineux has 11, and Molineux’s return strengthens that unit further. 

But the batting hasn’t looked nearly as convincing.

Wolvaardt, Bouchier and Lee are all capable of destroying a powerplay, but they haven’t consistently put together the kind of starts Brave were getting earlier in the tournament. They’ve now lost three straight after looking almost unstoppable for a stretch.

And this is where today’s toss matters. Sunrisers won the toss and chose to field.

The Oval has been producing around a 149 average first innings score in the women’s Hundred this season, so Sunrisers get to see what target they need before beginning their chase. 

If Brave somehow get 150–160+, I think this becomes a completely different game because their bowling can absolutely defend that.

But if Sunrisers restrict them to something like 135–145, it'd be game over for the Brave.

64¢ feels about right to me. I’m backing the comeback story to continue.

Sunrisers Leeds to the final.

Byron Donalds is sitting at 98.6% on Polymarket to win the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary.

And honestly, the outright market isn’t particularly interesting anymore. Cause it's more or less settled.

I initially was worried this could turn into a repeat of the Wisconsin Democratic primary, where Francesca Hong was polling ahead but only to fall short to David Crowley. But there’s a key structural difference. Hong’s lead, despite being double-digit, was clearly unstable. But, Donalds’ lead has been remarkably stable across 9 different pollsters over 5 months.

And, I see the recent polling has Donalds comfortably ahead of the field. In one, a July Cygnal poll had him at 43%, compared with 12% for James Fishback and 11% for Jay Collins. And, another July poll put Donalds at 49% and Fishback at just 4%. 

And, that's not all, on Poly, the Fishback market has a much stranger setup or probably signs of smart money?

I saw the top holders here, both on Yes, and No. One trader has put just $4K on Fishback, but because they went in when odds were around 1¢, it would be that they're targeting roughly $303K if he somehow pulls it off.

On the other side, a trader has around $129K positioned against Fishback, targeting roughly $130K, essentially accepting a small return in exchange for betting that the longshot doesn’t pull off the upset.

That’s a pretty wild risk to reward split.. it's kinda the other way around on Donalds.

Fishback isn’t completely irrelevant. He’s shown the ability to move his Polymarket price sharply when he generates attention, and earlier polling in June was considerably more competitive before Donalds rebuilt his lead. 

But, it's just that the latest numbers look much tougher for him.

Personally, I wouldn’t touch the Fishback, but I can understand why someone would take a small shot at this point.

Or maybe, the question should be what is the $4K trader seeing that the rest of the market isn’t?

Farage winning Clacton looks close to a formality at this point. But, all I got is an interesting question on what his vote share actually looks like...

Been trying to dig more backgrounder on this particular byelection and opinion polls around it. So, the latest Survation poll has Farage at 73%, with Count Binface on 20%. And with the major parties sitting this one out, Farage has an unusually clear path to a huge number. 

But that’s exactly why I’m more interested in the margin market than the outright winner.

The market is currently split across several Farage vote-share ranges, and there seems to be a meaningful gap between the polling and some of the more aggressive brackets.

73% in a poll doesn’t automatically mean 73% on election night.

Turnout, the novelty of having 34 candidates on the ballot, and the fact that this is an unusual by-election all make the final margin harder to pin down. I would also said tactical voting, but then the major parties are out so, that might be not a thing who knows.

Oh and did I say, this is the largest-ever UK parliamentary ballot, with 34 candidates standing. 

Farage won 46.2% here in 2024, so almost any outcome tonight will represent a massive increase in vote share, even though this one is due to his own making. But, the question is whether he actually gets into the 80%+ territory that the market seems to be tempting traders with.

Personally, I think 70%+ is very achievable, but I’m not convinced the jump from 70% to 80%+ is as straightforward as the outright market makes it look.

That’s where I’d be looking.

Does Farage crush 80%, or is the market overestimating just how big the victory will be?