You know, it asks you to lay out way beyond your mental capacity going into the night.
"What if it hits!?" , is too seductive to ignore.
I was going to flat bet xxx if my progression took me there, and then it did and im six deep.
I put way way too much money down to attempt a recovery.
Thank God my bankroll is fixed going into a session. This is my loss and exit, gracefully I hope, as I leave full of shame.
Ok, just going for one unit and im out. Its a nice size unit and my bankroll is 16 units or so deep.
First round, nope. Ok, ready to grind. Round 4 and im 4 units deep. What the....!? Ok, grind mode fully focused and activated.
100 or so rounds later and Im pushing 9 or 10 units deep. Win some, actual a good chunk, then lose 4 in a row again, exactly 8 units down, 8 left in the tank.
Of course I push all 8 units in. Its all come down to this.
The most honest story would be me losing it all right there. However, I doubt I'd have the mental strength to come tell you this story if a numbly stared at crumbs of nothing.
Instead I won, back to even. Baccarat is a game where we celebrate staying neutral. Its scary how easy it is to fall.
I decided to mostly flat bet, progress if I get 10 behind, you know - unlikely, but if it does then I'll step up.
Lol. Jokes on me, in minutes I was 20+ deep. 5 and 6 streaks stacked against me. At one point I was 28 down.
My progression was now 9x and finally clawed my way out.... but at one point was 2 bets away from bust.
Classic baccarat.
Been awhile since I sat and played for more than an hour. I've never been good at that and today reminded myself why.
Just flat betting, easy mental load and casual happy demeanor. Ended break even and I'm calling that a win.
Its nice to validate my regular approach of hit and run, seeing I'm not missing out by parking myself at a table for a couple hundred hands.
Its a 50/50 game that routinely sees me -5 count (flat betting).
Just the way it goes. I do get to experience +5 too, but nothing stings like -5.
Just finishing up a net positive month. My Casino gives lossback, and I haven't collected in 4 weeks now.
How?
Session is looking for 5 units and im out. You can decide for yourself what the unit size needs to be for it to become something your proud of and happy with.
Bet until loss or net 5 units
If loss, triple next wager... theory is simple: a win gives you +2 units, 1 for each round just passed.
If this loses, 3x base unit is not a heart attack. Just flat bet this new amount until +1 unit.
If you go crazy deep. End session or 3x again. This fresh wager is a massive recovery unit and it often only takes +2 of these to go net positive and reset.
Look. Every system fails in an -ev environment. This one will too. Just happy its held through some pretty sticky boards so far and Im in the green after 4 weeks of risking my life on the felt.
I dont mind hunting for a decent positive variance cluster. I can join the game, find myself down 5 in the blink.of an eye and enjoy the challenge of grinding out.
You know the feeling of putting in the time with Banker and thinking you're finally ahead and commissions paid reveal you're actually up .1 of a unit or worse?
So i switched to Player mostly. Winning more than 50/50, means im actually up, and its a nice feeling.
Simple rules: bet 1, lose, bet 2, lose, bet 3, lose. Sequence over, bet 1 again.
Started off -6 units, perfect for this little test. Stayed committed and just ground it out until hand 31 put me ahead ... by half a unit (commissions paid).
I'm happy. Little trials like this keep me entertained and give the +ev dream a little juice.
I play with a fixed acceptable loss. If the table beats me, it beats me. Just the way it goes.
Took me a while to get over revenge bidding. This is a healthier place.
I clicked the withdraw button.
Was trying a new approach and it worked pretty well.
I know i simply got lucky and so im not giving it back to bad luck.
I still play everyday, but the fewer hands the better.
Any approach is better than no approach, but whatever the weakness to your system is; its coming to a table near you.
This game is literally a race for extraction before decimation.
Good luck out there!
Not to win... just to lose the least amount possible!
Of course the game doesn't care, but I do.
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Just recently crossed wagering $3 million with my casino and got invited to highest loyalty tier.
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No intention of slowing down... going to push this thing hard until I explode.
Classic approach: I can scale my counter bets in a cool way. I cant be stopped!
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No really, I'll wait for no less than a 5 node headstart and make so much money if this goes to 11!
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Hey, I even built a 12 step ladder to survive an 11 node monster.... bring it on!!!
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First sequence out of the gate? A 12 node run. You just cant make this stuff up. Its like life itself is actively giving you the exact reason to quit, yet again.
Playing Banker only tonight and was doing great. Basically flat betting, occasionally raising if Player went 3 in a row or something.
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I thought, "wow - so unfair to Player. This is embarrassing how few hands they are winning."
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Did a final tally after finished session and it was Player 67 to Banker 73. It felt more like 50 to 80 while playing. Banker just clutched every raise when I needed it to and had a blow out lucky night. Up 40 units!!
Not bragging, I think someone has to lose a fair amount of money to get invited to these clubs.
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Got my invite today. AMA.
Probably fairly normal. Average $15 wager, about 30 hands - ended on placing a winning $125 wager, so skews the perfect math a bit.
My app told me I wagered $500 total as I shut the session down.
If someone says, I won $1000, do I estimate they wagered almost $10,000 to secure it? And its not like they would have brought $10,000 to the table, probably closer to half of that.
Just thinking out loud how much capital need to load up and lock in based on my intended goal.
Its a 50/50 flip, or nearly... but asymmetry is coming. Either a straight 12 node run or a slow and steady 2+ to 1 on repeat that wedges a 15 node gap in too short a window.
And my brain says, ok, now it will go the other way.... nope. Those bizarre clusters owe it to no one to revert. More likely it goes back to 50/50 or so giving no natural channel for simple recovery.
Get caught on the wrong side? Going to sit in hell for the rest of the session (probably).
I generally grind. Small stakes and wait for a positive variation.
Tonight I'm gearing up to play and as I approach the table my mind is saying, just 10x your bet. It will be great!
I didn't even bet one hand. Stupid brain.
From first bet to net positive is a sequence.
I previously had a 131 hand sequence which I lost on. My longest to grab a win, before tonight, was 66 hands.
Tonight was 201 hands. I think due to commission it was still a $3 net loss, but I'm calling it a win. Had to battle back from a 30 Player lead over Banker at one point.