The break-even math on 90¢+ contracts nobody talks about
On a binary contract the price you pay is basically the win rate you need. Add taker fees (Kalshi's formula is ~0.07 × p × (1−p) per contract) and the bar moves up a bit:
- buy at 80¢ → need ~81.1% wins
- 85¢ → ~85.9%
- 90¢ → ~90.6%
- 93¢ → ~93.5%
- 95¢ → ~95.3%
At 93¢ a win pays ~6.5¢ after fees and a loss costs ~93.5¢, so one loss erases about 14 wins.
Real example: my bot's first 265 live trades on Kalshi's 15-minute markets went 250-15 (94.3%). Sounds great. Its average cost needed 92.6% to break even. Net after fees: +$49.89. Worst single loss: −$14.23.
So "high win rate" strategies on favorites are really a bet that your win rate beats the price by a point or two, consistently. Curious how others here think about the edge when buying 90¢+ contracts.
(Disclosure: I sell a version of my bot at deskbot.store, $19.99/mo. Small sample, not financial advice, not affiliated with Kalshi.)