r/PredictionMarkets

Prediction markets work best when people think in probabilities.

But World Cup fans usually don’t.

They think in flags, squads, narratives, and emotion.

So when the tournament starts and casual fans enter the market, what happens?

Do prices become better because there’s more attention and liquidity?

Or worse because everyone piles into the obvious teams?

I’m especially curious about teams like England, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal, and France — huge fanbases, huge narratives, probably a lot of emotional money.

What do you think:
more liquidity = smarter prices, or more fans = noisier prices?

Does anyone have any good tools for setting up alert monitoring on Polymarket / Kalshi?

I'm a European, and I miss most of the US world event news as it all happens while I'm asleep. I've tried a few Telegram bots, but the integrations are a bit weird. I'm looking for something a bit more bespoke than just a stream of messages about price changes.

I'd like something with automated trading too. I've tried a few copytrading bots, but I still want to make some decisions. I've found a lot of the configurations for stop losses to be too limiting.

Been farming Polymarket for a while now but the newer PM apps getting kinda crazy

A bunch of them let you make your own markets now instead of only trading whatever politics stuff everybody already talking about

Made a couple random BTC ones recently and somehow i’m green rn which probably means i’m either lucky or about to get humbled real fast

Honestly feels way more fun than sitting on CT watching 400 people pretend they know where the market going

Crazy part is some of these smaller PM apps still feel super early compared to how massive prediction markets getting overall

Feels like prediction markets slowly turning into their own weird corner of internet culture now where literally any argument can become tradable

Anybody else found smaller PM apps worth messing with lately or am i just too deep into this stuff now

The new law, signed by Gov. Tim Walz, makes it a felony to create, operate, manage, or advertise a prediction market in the state.

Want to see if people are actually making money on polymarket / kalshi

View Poll

Been seeing more people switch from sportsbooks to prediction market apps. Which one do you think is actually the best for sports right now?

https://preview.redd.it/kw033ewgmb2h1.jpg?width=1151&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=321502c6ef13850df5c24542b597c26c716e6b78

I’m a Brazilian developer and I recorded something I honestly haven’t seen documented live before.

I built a Polymarket bot and captured a live case where around $8 turned into a $1,200+ payout.

This is not financial advice, not a profit promise, and not a “get rich quick” thing.

What I’m trying to understand is: was this pure luck, execution edge, or something that could become a serious prediction-market automation product?

The video is in Portuguese, but the result and public proof are visible.

Would love technical feedback:

https://youtu.be/REQNdTsrWIw?si=32jy34N5JOYFY9kT

I’ve been using Kalshi a lot lately and ran into something kind of annoying.

There are just too many markets to actually follow properly.

Like you can understand a move if you catch it at the right time and go dig through news, CPI prints, tweets, whatever… but realistically you miss most of it unless you’re staring at it all day.

So I built a small tool to try and fix that for myself.

It just watches a bunch of Kalshi markets, flags when something moves a lot, and then tries to match it with whatever news or event might’ve caused it. It also links sources so you can check it yourself.

It’s not trying to predict anything or give trading signals. More like

“Hey, this moved a lot — here’s the most likely reason.”

What surprised me is that a lot of moves actually do have a clean explanation, but you only see it if you happen to be paying attention at the exact right time.

Anyway I’m still not sure if this is actually useful to other people or just something that helps me personally.

Curious if anyone here would actually find something like that useful or if you’d just rather do your own research manually.

If you want to try it or tell me it’s pointless, I’m open to either.

Hey folks - wanted to swing by here and ask what, if any, platforms you guys are using for Kalshi automation? Whether that's copy-trading, arbitrage, or something else entirely...

I've been using [B3OS](www.b3os.org) for Polymarket copy-trading & auto-claiming, and have also used AskGina a fair amount, along w/some others I've seen on polymark.et (a big aggregator of 180+ PM automation tools, varying degrees of usefulness, for sure...), -- & yet, I've not seen any killer solutions for Kalshi, specifically.

Maybe this is a product of their API being more closed-off, or limited, in some ways? Perhaps dev frens in the mix can share insights?

Any thoughts? 🤔

So I left my bot running over 2 days now, and the results are pretty insane. I'll attach images below for reference.

Also, happy to answer any questions. 😄

Absurd win rate.

Result of having very strict filters, you don't trade very often but the quality of your trade is significantly improved.

Based on my calculations, across 40 hours, there's around ~160 15-min windows. We successfully entered 66 windows, That's approx. ~40% +.

My average trade size is $20 per trade.

Breakdown

I know and understand that these stats look too good to be true, probably it is, even I am in somewhat in a disbelief.

I personally wouldn't take this as a win just yet. My live-run spans only around 38 hrs to 42 hrs. I'd simply call it insufficient data to draw a conclusion.

I do consider increasing bet size to $30 and maybe $40 later on, however at bigger bets, liquidity issues surfaces.

Another additional feature that I maybe adding in the near future would be a compounding bet. So the bet size and profit expand exponentially. But I'm pretty sure I'll hit a stop wall somewhere.

This bot is not proven to be scalable yet.

Important note : I am not promoting or advertising my bot (it is not for sale, at least for the foreseeable future). This is not financial advise, results may vary depending on real time market movement.

Merely sharing my bot building experience. Meaning to say to my fellow bot-builders or devs, "it can be done".

I'm happy to answer questions / provide additional screenshots via comment or DM. Feel free to reach out. TG : @ kop92

Also open to suggestion/ideas/discussions. 😄

so sick of these sites dragging out cashouts. deposited took 2 secs but tried to pull out a couple hundred in ltc after a small heater and live support locked my shit up for 3 weeks asking for a million documents.

​finally got the coin today but i'm completely done with them. anyone got a spot that actually does instant withdrawals or is every crypto casino a total scam now?

​tl;dr site held my ltc for 3 weeks over fake verification loops, need a new platform that actually pays out fast