What just caused this sudden BTC spike?
Just opened the charts and saw a massive green candle out of nowhere. What’s driving the momentum today?
u/Salt-Animator-6283 — 1 day ago
r/PredictionMarkets
▲ 13 r/PredictionMarkets
Anyone found an actual edge on 1 hour BTC markets?
I have been trying these 1 hour BTC up/down markets on Courtside and I am curious how people here approach them, do you look at momentum or order flow this close to expiry? Or does the noise make most of that useless?
It feels like there should be some edge when the price gets close to the open late in the hour. I just can’t tell what signal is worth watching yet so what are you guys watching before making a pick?
u/Friendly_Bag_7226 — 1 day ago
MLB predictions this time of the year feels like..
u/dominykaso — 21 hours ago
$45 turned into $1700+
Been playing the BTC 15 min and it went my way.
u/Square-Rooster-6101 — 2 days ago
You paste a headline. It builds the people in it, lets them argue for ten minutes, and hands you a market question.
MiroShark writes the market question for you, and it gets there by a genuinely interest route.
You give it a scenario. A headline, a press release, a policy draft, whatever you've got. It reads the text, works out who actually has a stake in it, and casts them as agents. The people, the companies, the institutions named in your input, each with their own incentives and posting style, with public figures grounded against live web research so they reflect the current version of themselves.
Then it runs them. The agents post on a simulated Twitter, argue on a simulated Reddit, and trade an internal market, all at once and wired together. Traders see what's being posted, posters see where the price is. Someone says something inflammatory, the price moves, other agents notice and adjust. You get an actual narrative rather than a summary.
What comes out the other end, ten minutes later:
A sharp question. The hard part of creating a market has never been having the idea, it's the wording. Named actor, specific action, hard deadline, resolvable without argument. Get any of it wrong and you spend resolution day fighting in the comments about what counts. Real output, unedited, from public runs:
- "Will the Texas Attorney General's office file a formal lawsuit or injunction against Samsung..."
- "Will the university administration issue a formal statement modifying or delaying the income-blind policy..."
- "Will the AZZLE protocol's total active AI agent count exceed 500 by December 31, 2026..."
Named actor, specific action, hard deadline. That's the chore, done.
A catalyst map. Every run ranks which posts actually moved the room and which agent wrote them. One geopolitical run I read surfaced an energy-chokepoint threat, a military rehearsal, and a new alliance entering as a wildcard, ranked by how much they shifted the room. That's a watchlist for what to monitor, generated from a paragraph.
The disagreement, not just a consensus. It reports the split rather than collapsing to one answer. One run ended 44.4% bullish, 33.3% neutral, 22.2% bearish, with belief drift charted round by round so you can see the exact point the room fractured. A single price throws all of that away.
A report where everything has a receipt. Every claim links to the specific post or trade it came from. You can click through to the moment an agent changed its mind and read the argument that did it.
And you can push on it while it runs. DM any agent and it answers in character from its current belief state and posting history. Inject breaking news into a live timeline and watch the room absorb it. Or fork the run on a counterfactual and put both branches side by side, which is scenario work you'd otherwise be doing in your head.
It's open source, AGPL, around 1.4k stars, and self-hostable end to end including against local models.
Easiest way to judge it: 240 completed runs are public and free to read. No account, no payment.
Public runs: miroshark.xyz/sim
Repo: github.com/MiroShark/MiroShark
u/amu4biz — 1 day ago
After the Massachusetts Kalshi law gets put in place, do I have a chance of getting money back due to being under 21 years old and betting on there app.
u/No-Passion52 — 1 day ago
I started logging why my BTC 15m paper strategy stayed flat
I’ve been paper-trading some BTC 15m prediction-market entry logic, and the rejected entries are turning out to be more useful than the fills.
The useful part is not just the reason code. It’s the exact condition that made the strategy stay flat.
A few examples from the log:
- ASK_ABOVE_ENTRY_CAP: ask was above the max entry price
- BEFORE_DECISION_WINDOW: too early to make the call
- AFTER_ENTRY_WINDOW: entry window had already passed
- spread/depth failed: fill quality was not good enough
- stale inputs: snapshot was not safe to act on
No PnL flex. No “bot nailed it” screenshot. Just the strategy saying: price is wrong, timing is wrong, liquidity is too thin, or the input is stale.
That feels like the part most backtests quietly hand-wave away. A strategy can look fine if you only inspect the trades it took. The harder test is whether it can reject almost-good entries without overfitting itself into doing nothing.
I’m cleaning up the strategy/filter logic enough that the same paper decisions can be replayed and debugged, mostly because I want harsher eyes on the reject layer before trusting any green chart.
For people who trade these markets seriously: what would you need to see in paper logs before letting a strategy touch live funds?
u/Historical_Rock6178 — 1 day ago
Built a Polymarket airdrop checker. Everyone calls POLY the biggest airdrop in web3, median wallet across 1.85M scored 31/100
Upfront, I run an analytics site for Polymarket, so this is my thing and the numbers come from our own index. Take that as you will.
Reason I built it. There are something like nine POLY allocation estimators live right now and most of them either want you to connect a wallet or quote you a token amount for a token that does not exist. There is also at least one page impersonating Polymarket with a check eligibility button that just drains you. So the bar was low.
What it actually does. You paste an address, nothing to connect and nothing to sign. It scores that wallet against the eight metrics that showed up most often across fifteen published airdrop formulas, Arbitrum, Optimism, dYdX, LayerZero, Jito, Jupiter, EigenLayer and so on. Weights are printed on the page. Farmer risk is a separate number instead of being folded into the score, so a big volume wallet cannot hide behind it.
The aggregate came out more interesting than I expected. Across 1,848,077 wallets with at least 10 fills and 100 dollars of notional, the median readiness score is 31 out of 100. Only 636 wallets score above 90. 87,186 carry farming shaped patterns, mostly entries clustered up near a dollar where there is almost no risk left.
What surprised me most is that raw volume is a weak signal historically. Across those fifteen formulas, adjusted volume appeared in 8 and was almost never linear, dYdX gave 30x the allocation for 1000x the volume. Distinct active days and capital held over time appeared nearly as often and were taken much more literally. Realised profit appeared in 2 out of 15.
Things it does not do, since I would rather say it than have someone find out. It cannot tell you your allocation, no criteria exist yet and Polymarket's own help page still says no airdrop has been announced. It does not check funding graph clustering because we do not index USDC transfers, and the page says NOT CHECKED there instead of showing a fake clean. And if you paste your MetaMask address it will probably show nothing, because Polymarket trades through a proxy wallet, you want the address from your Polymarket profile URL or just type your username.
Genuinely curious what people here think about the filtering question. LayerZero only qualified about 21% of wallets that had touched the protocol and Arbitrum around 27%. If Polymarket does something similar, most of that 1.85M never sees anything regardless of score. If you were the one designing it, what would you gate on?
u/Turbulent-Peace-8772 — 2 days ago
▲ 51 r/PredictionMarkets
700$ to 19k+
been playing around a couple days with the 15min crypto market. Found a formula that works around 80% of the time, hasn’t failed me yet. Thoughts?
u/bulian1 — 2 days ago
Looking for some serious bettors
I’m looking for people who actually bet consistently and understand that 3–5 plays is a slate, not 25.
I built EdgePulse around small, selective slates with every result tracked publicly.
I want people who will actually use the thing and tell me where it’s good, where it sucks, and what they’d change.
If that sounds like you, DM me.
u/Low-Wafer2746 — 3 days ago
Polymarket Negrisk
Hey all, wrote this blog post for Polymarket negrisk. Know a lot of people who do split/merge and have a wrong PNL on Polymarket. Put together a blog post explaining it, and also a solution. Blog post posted on X
u/No-Chemistry327 — 3 days ago
Prediction Markets Research
I run a small prediction markets research firm. Here's what three months of tracking Brier scores vs. Kalshi's implied probabilities actually looks like: wins & losses.
If you want free prediction markets research three times a week, top three calls with edge scores, I publish them on Substack: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/
- Total scored forecasts: 5
- Correct: 4
- Incorrect: 1
- AFG Brier: 0.111 vs Market Brier Score: 0.132
- Accuracy: 80%
u/Accomplished_Act_332 — 4 days ago
Nearly a dozen firms are already paying up to $100,000 per month for early access to Trump’s Truth Social posts
More Wall Street customers are signing up for a Trump Media & Technology Group service that allows earlier access to new Truth Social posts, a feature some economists are calling a form of insider trading.
Trump Media, founded by President Donald Trump in 2021, announced more than 10 customers have signed up for Truth API, or Application Programming Interface, a service that began earlier this month that gives Wall Street traders access to Truth Social posts from top users, including Trump, milliseconds before being published for the platform’s broader audience. Customers are charged between $60,000 and $100,000 per month for the service.
Interim CEO Kevin McGurn said during the company’s earnings presentation on Monday most Truth API customers are high-frequency trading firms, but it is in talks to sell the product to hyperscalers, large news organizations, and large-language model developers, as well as expand the tool for retail trading. McGurn said the product was in “early innings,” but the company was “strongly encouraged” by early progress.
But the product, as well as Trump’s continued stake in the company, has garnered several ethical concerns. Trump owns about 41% of company shares for Trump Media, leaving him to benefit from the new revenue stream of Truth API subscribers, which at just 10 users, could drive up to $1 million in monthly revenue, or $12 million annually. The new feature, according to experts, effectively allows Trump to financially gain from his own official statements.
“I’ll be blunt,” Gian Luca Clementi, an economics professor at NYU Stern School of Business, told Fortune. “This is insider trading by definition.”
Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/08/12/trump-media-truth-api-insider-trading/?utm_source=reddit/
u/Ok_Crazy1195 — 7 days ago
Built an AI-only prediction platform for a college project—looking for feedback from the prediction market community
Hi r/PredictionMarkets,
We built Vaticin as a college project and are now trying to apply it more broadly. It's a prediction market where AI agents compete instead of humans placing money bets. Think Metaculus meets AI agent development.
Users build AI agents that make predictions on real markets (elections, macro events, sports, tech developments, etc.). Performance is measured through Brier scores, calibration, and other scientific metrics. No money wagered—just competitive rankings and reputation.
Our current focus is on the education and college club side—teaching AI agent development through classroom competitions and intercollegiate tournaments. Longer-term, we want to build it out so experienced prediction market users and algo traders can use it as a training platform for their agents.
We're looking for beta testers and honest feedback from the prediction market community:- Does the AI-only competition angle interest you?- What markets would you want to see?- What scientific metrics matter most to you?- Would you use this to train your own agents?- Any UX suggestions after checking it out?
Search "Vaticin AI" or visit vaticin.ai (not vaticin.com—that's a different site).
Would love your thoughts. Genuine feedback appreciated.
u/Moist_Light8798 — 4 days ago
15-Min BTC Over/Under: Can You Actually Make Money?
I just tested one of these BTC 15-minute over/under bets with $100. The odds fluctuated crazy throughout the 15 minutes, but it eventually landed over and paid $263, so I made $163 profit in 15 minutes.
It got me wondering: is there actually a mathematical edge here, or is this basically just gambling with a ton of short-term noise?
I know people are trading these with real money, and there are apparently people building bots/models around them.
Has anyone actually found a repeatable strategy for these? Can volatility, momentum, order flow, etc. be used to calculate a real edge, or does the randomness and fees make it impossible to consistently beat?
Curious if anyone here has smacked for a lot of money?
Also this or blackjack what’s better odds?
u/Automatic_Entry7 — 6 days ago
Scammed, not being able to close prediction bets when I was up 200% (while the market was still active) half of my winning bets disappeared the second. I contacted customer support(Dodgers game predictions)
Made a bunch of predictions, Max, Otani, Friedman… some hits, some bases, some runs.. at the end of the game, when the market closed I was up on several bet that were going to be paid out.
I called about not being able to execute a sale on my predictions for Susaki strikeouts when I was up on a 19% odds bet.. would’ve been somewhere close to $300 (substantial for a small fish like me..)
Well, the market for this prediction was still over before he was taken out of the game. I attempted to close my position several times and each time I did it said I would owe Coinbase money and not collect any profit.
I went back to the main screen refreshed, and it still showed me to be winning the bet I tried to execute again and it happened a second time. I couldn’t even withdraw the initial funds that I put into the prediction.
After making contact and voicing by concern, providing screenshots in real time after the end of the game and the market closed, I noticed that my other winning bets started to disappear completely from record and other winning bets changing to lost even though the player fulfilled what the contract should’ve been.. continued to screenshot everything and document(lucky for me. I still have all of the original photographs and screen recordings.)
The Support ticket said it needed to be escalated and when I called today and sat on the phone for two hours, I recorded the entire conversation and they continually tried to gaslight me saying that I was incorrect and that Friedman as well as some other contracts didn’t complete the necessary requirements to be paid out.
I even went onto the MLB website and took screenshots of the play-by-play to prove to them that they didn’t know what they were talking about.
after speaking to the people in Bangladesh, I finally got a appointment for this coming Monday with a one-on-one interview to discuss it.. wondering if there’s any lawyers out there that would want to jump on all of our issues prove that Coinbase is stealing from us?
u/TherightmindsetTM — 6 days ago
What tools do people use for prediction markets?
I feel like there's been an explosion of tools recently, and I'm curious what people are actually finding useful.
My current stack is:
- X for real-time updates
- Perplexity for quick research
- Mesh (meshapi.app) for transcript search/analysis
- Various news aggregators
I've found Mesh especially helpful when a market depends on something that was said in an interview, podcast, earnings call, etc. Being able to search across transcripts saves a lot of time versus digging through hours of content manually.
What tools have genuinely improved your edge?
u/________A6 — 7 days ago
Won over 60k on kalshi but I am done with this pyramid scheme and why you should be too
Like the title said. During the world cup made some great money. I believe the world cup gave this platform such high new userbase and did what it was meant to do which was make people stick around post world cup. The problem? Once something begins to become almost "cultural" it begins to go down the drain.
Kalshi used to gives you what I call "Corner" meaning it gave you advantages like being able to cash out for almost close to your final payout as long as the game was almost over and you were up. Now? I see people locked into a bet when one soccer team is up 1-0 and the game has five minutes left. When people raise concerns you find kalshi defense soldiers come to make excuses. Saying that no one is buying his position or there is lack of volume. IF the game has a starting of a quarter of a million I don't believe no one wants to buy a winning position with 5-3 minutes left.
There is a belief that there is "no house" with kalshi. However the reality is class actions that they are fighting exposes that kalshi is house and do buy up positions themselves. Something most people already knew that kalshi used bots to achieve this malpractice. You will get the crumbs when trying to hedge your bets while kalshi bots get first dips on the best prices.
Then you have not displaying accurate live information while claiming to do so. This has costs people so much money.
My very last point. Trump jr is an advisor for these prediction apps. Heavily involved. I am not anti trump or a political opposition. However, when a family who has stolen money from their proclaimed "cancer charity fund" is in government and also behind the scenes in these prediction market one can only know it's only a matter of time until the casino begins to show itself as a circus.
Just stop now. They want you to win at the start and believe it's fair and that the kalshi doesn't make money whether you win or lose. They want you to win so you continue to use and they want you to lose so you make money back. In the very end once it has became part of your daily routine they will only want you to lose as they pull every corner they used to once give you to their own advantage instead of yours.
These aps should not prosper. They are what society claims to hate of only making the rich richer. They do not truly block out insiders from trading like they claim to do. As there are loopholes on what defines an insider.
u/AccurateIntuition — 9 days ago