r/PredictionMarkets

On a binary contract the price you pay is basically the win rate you need. Add taker fees (Kalshi's formula is ~0.07 × p × (1−p) per contract) and the bar moves up a bit:

• buy at 80¢ → need ~81.1% wins
• 85¢ → ~85.9%
• 90¢ → ~90.6%
• 93¢ → ~93.5%
• 95¢ → ~95.3%

At 93¢ a win pays ~6.5¢ after fees and a loss costs ~93.5¢, so one loss erases about 14 wins.

Real example: my bot's first 265 live trades on Kalshi's 15-minute markets went 250-15 (94.3%). Sounds great. Its average cost needed 92.6% to break even. Net after fees: +$49.89. Worst single loss: −$14.23.

So "high win rate" strategies on favorites are really a bet that your win rate beats the price by a point or two, consistently. Curious how others here think about the edge when buying 90¢+ contracts.

(Disclosure: I sell a version of my bot at deskbot.store, $19.99/mo. Small sample, not financial advice, not affiliated with Kalshi.)

I used to play with them for a while. They always gave a timely payout because the amount was less. This time I won a big amount and suddenly they started facing bank server issues. It has been 4 days since they are saying this and now I'm planning to stop reaching out to them because they have drained my brain. What should I do?

I have an out that allows correlated parlays in every sport. Allowing me to bet 1st half spread and total in the same game with no correlation. They also allow the same live and take the line down with 4:30 left in the 1h. For example
Pre game
+260 (real odds range from +140 to +210) depending on how close they are. The example below would be -120 on FanDuel/fanatics while I’m getting +260
Alabama 1h over 35
Alabama 1h -34.5

Live wagers taking the team with the ball to cover the live spread + over. Getting around +280 to +400 on these while real odds are +130ish.

I don’t have enough capital to make this “worth” it. Would anyone like to invest or pay me to tell you which book. Open to all types of offers. Thanks