Gold just hit $4,450 — lowest since March. FOMC minutes drop in 3 hours. Markets pricing 60% chance of Fed rate HIKES by year-end. This is the most important afternoon of the month.
Three hours from now, the last window into the Powell-era Fed drops.
And gold is collapsing into it.
Here's what's happening right now heading into 2:00 PM ET.
Gold breaking support : — Gold touched its lowest level since late March near $4,450 earlier today before recovering above $4,470 — Currently trading around $4,500, holding gains from yesterday's session — Gold has been under pressure since the conflict erupted, as soaring oil prices fueled inflation fears and reinforced expectations for additional central bank interest rate hikes — Down 20% from January highs. Safe-haven demand completely broken.
The Fed expectations shift is complete : — Markets are now pricing in a nearly 60% probability of the Fed raising the policy rate by 25 basis points at least once by the end of the year — Markets have completely priced out any possibility of Fed rate cuts for the remainder of 2026 — 30-year Treasury yields near their highest level since 2023 — Two weeks ago, markets expected cuts. Today, they expect hikes.
UK inflation came in weak — markets ignored it : — UK CPI declined to 2.8% in April from 3.3% in March, below the 3% expectation — GBP/USD didn't react. The dollar is too strong, yields are too high, Iran is still the wildcard.
FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM ET — why it matters : — The April minutes represent the last complete record of committee deliberations under the previous leadership structure — Traders will be looking at how individual committee members framed the tension between sticky inflation and a softening labor market — If the minutes reveal significant internal disagreement about whether energy-driven inflation is transitory or broadening, that disagreement becomes the interpretive backdrop for Warsh's June framing — Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting is June 16-17. These minutes are the baseline.
The Iran situation still unresolved : — President Trump suspended a planned strike after appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, saying the Gulf nations believed a deal with Tehran that satisfies Washington was still achievable — Investors remain skeptical about a potential US-Iran peace deal — Oil around $102 — still 40% above pre-conflict levels
What happens at 2:00 PM : Hawkish minutes → dollar spikes → gold tests $4,400 → next support $4,300 Dovish minutes → relief rally → gold retests $4,600 → but the trend is still down
The structural setup hasn't changed. Oil elevated = inflation elevated = Fed hawkish = yields up = gold down.
Your levels need to be defined before 2:00 PM. Not at 2:01 PM.
I run every setup through an AI tool I built before entering — https://herculmarket.com — upload your chart, it reads the structure and scores the setup before the volatility hits.
How are you positioned into FOMC minutes — long gold, short gold, or flat?