u/Double_Interview1124

We all know that the Indian Air Force is facing a terrifying squadron depletion crisis, and the Indian Navy is scrambling to equip its carriers, as the current air frames fall apart. Over the past few years, the MOD has fed us endless announcements about indigenous platforms, but if you look closely at the ground reality right now, it is an absolute industrial nightmare riddled with bureaucratic red tape, vendor blackmail, and systemic incompetence.

I’ve been doing a deep dive into our current aerospace landscape, and here is a realistic breakdown of the IAF and Navy's approach, the massive roadblocks we are hitting, and an aggressive, pragmatic road map of what the government needs to do to salvage this situation.

On paper, the defense establishment’s blueprint is actually brilliant, the IAF and Navy have adopted a "System of Systems" approach, instead of just buying 1 expensive omni role fighter to do everything, the plan is to create an interconnected, indigenous web of assets that talk to each other seamlessly.

In this ecosystem, the Tejas Mk1A and Mk2 act as the numerical 4.5 gen backbone and heavy bomb trucks, the Su 30MKI (upgraded to the "Super Sukhoi") acts as the heavy 4.5 gen flying command center, the AMCA will be the invisible 5th gen sniper penetrating enemy airspace, and finally, they plan to surround these manned fighters with autonomous UCAVs (like the Ghatak stealth drone) and loyal wing men (like the CATS warrior) to play numerous roles like absorb enemy fire, strike deep, etc.

The Navy’s approach mirrors this, use the Rafale M as an immediate shield for our current carriers, while indigenous 4.5+ gen TEDBFs are developed to take over carrier operations in the future. The whole concept is designed to achieve absolute Atmanirbharata (self reliance)!!

While the vision is great, the execution has completely collapsed, primarily driven by HAL's chronic incompetence and MOD red tape.

Let's start with HAL, they are struggling massively with basic systems integration, on the Tejas Mk1A, they completely failed to integrate the AESA radar with the electronic warfare suite, and then having the audacity to ask the IAF to compromise on this critical software integration for early adoption, which is suicidal in modern combat, just look at the ALH Dhruv, which faced fleet wide groundings due to metallurgical and control rod failures, or the LCH Prachand, which is barely trickling out of the factory and still lacks the integration of its core anti tank guided missiles.

Because of this industrial lethargy, our timelines are a disaster, the Tejas Mk1A has now been delayed for close to 3 years, the deliveries were supposed to happen in early 2024, and the IAF is still starving for combat ready jets, as the Tejas Mk2 has been delayed by over 2 years, it hasn't even had its first flight yet and is realistically pushed to Q1 2027, as for the AMCA’s first flight, which was promised for late 2028 to early 2029, but thanks to endless design loop delays, it is now drifting into 2030 to 2032.

Then there is the Super Sukhoi upgrade, this program has been trapped in bureaucratic hell for over a decade, the MOD and HAL spent years paralyzed by indecision, unable to finalize whether to go with a completely indigenous upgrade or run back to Russia for avionics, because of this red tape, our most reliable and workhorse fighter is flying with outdated tech, highly vulnerable and behind, to the Chinese tech and flankers, respectively.

The drone situation is equally dismal, we currently have zero operational UCAVs or prototype autonomous drones, HAL has been marketing the CATS Warrior for years, but it's nowhere to be seen because HAL simply lacks the cutting edge expertise in autonomous AI and sensor fusion, and the Ghatak UCAV is progressing at a glacial pace.

Furthermore, we are getting blackmailed by foreign vendors, General Electric has severely delayed the F404 engines for the Mk1A, proving they are an unreliable partner, yet, we are still banking on them for the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA Mk1(for the F414), while a transfer of technology deal is supposedly happening, how can we trust GE’s supply chain given the F404 fiasco? Meanwhile, Dassault is holding the MRFA deal hostage, they are refusing to let India integrate its indigenous weapons and systems, like the Astra air to air and Rudram anti radiation missiles on the Rafale, ensuring we remain locked in to an expensive supply chain.

Finally, the Navy is staring at a massive capability gap, we currently have no 5th generation fighter jet planned for the Navy, relying entirely on the 4.5 gen Rafale M as a stopgap, which leaves our carriers without a stealth component in the coming decades, also the Navy ordering more Rafale M shows, that they have zero confidence in ADA/HAL’s ability to deliver the TEDBF on time, as the TEDBF design isn't even fully finalized yet, all while China is actively testing their naval stealth fighter on their carriers.

If we want to survive a 2 front conflict, the MOD needs to stop playing nice, and implement a ruthless overhaul like this:

Restructure HAL and privatize via SPVs, because slapping HAL with financial penalties isn't enough, we need a structural overhaul, the MOD must create Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), to take manufacturing out of HAL’s monopolistic hands, where privately owned companies hold the majority stake, fortunately, the government just issued the AMCA RFP and shortlisted the privately owned players (like Tata, L&T led consortium and Bharat Forge led consortium) with necessary capabilities, so we need to expand this immediately, we must establish privately owned companies led SPVs for the Tejas Mk2 mass production and the Super Sukhoi upgrades together with the AMCA fleet, by giving 1 to each and handing HAL’s manufacturing lines and engineers over to these privately owned consortiums and companies, so corporate efficiency and strict deadlines take over, additionally, we need to increase the total number of Super Sukhois.
The Flying Testbed strategy (ditching US engine dependency), we cannot afford to be held hostage by General Electric's supply chain, we must implement a "flying test bed" strategy right now, by keeping a few prototype and trainer air frames of the Tejas Mk1A, Tejas Mk2, and AMCA Mk1 aside specifically for engine testing, to use these air frames to co develop a brand new, non US engine with Rolls Royce or the Japanese (who have recently eased export laws and also have the XF9 tech), once that 10 year engine development is done, we can completely swap out GE from the Mk1A, Mk2, and AMCA Mk1.
Forge global partnerships for drones because HAL has completely dropped the ball on the CATS Warrior, we must bypass them, the MOD needs to immediately forge global partnerships (with France, Israel, US, etc.) to co-develop and acquire UCAV and autonomous drone technology, as we need loyal wing men in the air before the end of the decade, and we can't wait for HAL.
Procure the Su 57 as an immediate 5th gen stopgap, with the AMCA severely delayed, the IAF has a massive stealth gap, Russia recently flew the prototype of a twin seat, twin engine Su 57, we should procure a limited number (40 to 60 jets as per IAF's need) as an immediate stopgap, the twin seat variant is perfect for Manned Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T), allowing the back seater to control our future UCAV's and drone swarms while giving us a 5th gen presence against China today.
Call Dassault's bluff, the MOD must categorically state to France, If you do not allow the integration of Indian AESA radars, Astra and Rudram missiles, and other Indian tech, the MRFA deal is dead, we will not spend billions just to be held hostage by supply chains during a conflict.
Develop a 5th gen fighter for the Navy, we should let the Navy expand its Rafale M order to secure our current carriers today, however, we must officially initiate a 5th gen naval fighter program, as we actually have a bit of time here, this 5th gen naval jet can be designed specifically from the ground up to operate off the future flat deck, catapult equipped, nuclear powered aircraft carriers (IAC-2) that India will be building in the late 2030's.
Mass procure and produce the Embraer C-390 Millennium, we need to aggressively push our Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) program by purchasing the Brazilian Embraer C-390 jet in large numbers (at least 60 to 80 units), it boasts around 30% lower operational costs compared to the C-130J, and more importantly, it is deeply tied to the "Make in India" initiative through Embraer’s strategic partnership with Mahindra, beyond just acting as a logistics platform, the KC-390 variant can be converted into an air to air refueling tanker, expanding our tanker fleet with a platform we can manufacture domestically is very beneficial for, giving our fighter jets the sustained range they need.
Dominate space with OptoSAR satellites, we absolutely need to step up our military satellite game, because future wars will be won in space, and we need the absolute best, we must aggressively deploy "OptoSAR" (Optical + Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellites, as the traditional optical satellites go blind when there are clouds or it's nighttime, and radar satellites lack visual clarity, the OptoSAR combines both, giving the military high resolution, all weather, 24/7 continuous surveillance of enemy movements and naval assets. India's private sector is already launching this tech (like GalaxEye’s recent mission Drishti), but the government needs to fast track its planned 52 satellite surveillance constellation.

What are your thoughts on this road map? And can the MOD pull this off?

Sources:

The dire state of the IAF &amp; Navy fighter fleets, a brutal reality check &amp; a blueprint to fix it!

The dire state of the IAF & Navy fighter fleets, a brutal reality check & a blueprint to fix it!