r/IndianDefense
Pakistan Air Force’s Intelligence Directorate Group Captain Asim Tariq (12204 GDP) was shot dead inside a car with a seat belt on in an incident near Shaheen Chowk, Islamabad by unknown attackers.
Source: OsintTV
Indian Air Force Fighter Jet Fleet and Its Future.
Hey guys basically I want to talk about IAF future choices by 2040. This is based of my opinion so u can feel free to comment ur views on it.
IAF currently operates 29 sq of Fighter Jets (after the retirement of Mig-21 Bison) which includes 13 sq of Su30MKI,2 sq of Rafale,2 sq of Tejas Mk1,3 sq of Mig29UPG,3 sq of Mirage 2000 and 6 sq of Jaguars. And if u follow the rapid advancement of Modern military technologies then u can immediately cut of 12 sq of f8ghter jets because they are obsolete (3 sq of Mirage 2000,3 sq of Mig29UPG and 6 sq of Jaguars). So this is the current situation of IAF.
Now if talk about future then Jaguars will be fully retired by 2035,while Mirage 2000 and Mig29UPG by 2040. So we are currently facing a deficit of 12 sq. To cover this we have ordered 180 Tejas Mk1A which will cover 10 sq. And we can also relegate 2 sq of Tejas Mk1 . Meaning in total we have 25 sq (13 sq of Su30MKI,2 sq of Rafale and 10 sq of Tejas Mk1A). We are in process to buy 114 additional Rafale Meaning 6 more sq. Then the total will become 31 sq. And for our required 42 sq target the remaining gap can only be fulfilled by Tejas Mk2 and AMCA.
Me personally i think India should buy 240 Tejas Mk2 by 2040 Meaning 12 additional squadrons bringing the total to 43 sq. And try to have 7 sq of AMCA MK1 by 2040 too. Hence bringing the total fighter jet strength to 50 squadrons by 2040. That is the best case scenario.
Now we can't have 2000s tech equipped Su30MKI by 2040 can we? So for that we will upgrade 204 Su30MKI to super sukhoi standard by 2040 with buying more Su30MKI to have a full combat fleet of 13 sq of Su30MKI SS. And in the case of Rafale preferably have the entire fleet to F5 standard but it will be hard so in that case have a fleet of F4 and F5 standard Rafale with eventual plan to upgrade the entire 8 sq of Rafale Fleet to F5 standard .
And in the case of AMCA have full 7 sq in AMCA MK1(powered by GE F414 INS6 engine) and AMCA MK2 in 2040s. And also because I don't think India will import 5th gen jet like F35 or Su57(if u consider it).
So in total by 2040 have-
1)13 sq of Su30MKI Super Sukhoi
2)12 sq of Tejas Mk2/LCA AF MK2
3)10 sq of Tejas Mk1A
4)8 sq of Rafale F4/F5
5)7 sq of AMCA MK1
In short,50 sq by 2040.
This is pretty much simplified answer .
Note that this is only for manned fighter jets
What do u think? What are ur thoughts and take on this? Rate it out of 10.
'We have some other friends, like India': Netanyahu pushes back after Vance calls US 'only ally' of Israel.
timesofindia.indiatimes.comIndia plans seabed cable network to detect Chinese, Pakistani submarines
newindianexpress.comResidents of PoK gathered near the LoC in front of Titri Note to protest against the Pakistani regime and the Pakistan Army
INS Sudarshini enters Port of New York and New Jersey [1200x1600]
Twin Seater LCA Tejas pictured from HJT-36 Yashas
INS Sudarshini at hudson river, new york, USA.
Source: rakeshsatvik on instagram
Adani Defence to build South Asia’s largest private missile manufacturing ecosystem in MP
indiasentinels.commaking Open project with Novichok to improve information
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Addressing the Elephant in the Room : Deterrence, Asymmetry , MAD and Chokepoint.
Evening everyone , i actually would have posted it sooner, but had some events to attend in the morning , i'm sober enough to collect my thoughts to post.
ADRESSING THE CHINESE ELEPHANT.
As things are. with it's industrial capacity and economic might. any conventional war with china is tough climb for India.
i want to preface this by stating that i'm of the opinion that a Indo China war in the next decade is UNLIKELY.
borrowing a quote , " Predicting the future is like betting against God " , so we have to be ready for any scenario that is thrown at us.
let's not kid our selves around, there are no participation trophies here, no award for just having the will to try when the leadership , babudom and even the ministry is so incompetent that it took their shit being pushed in to actually act on something.
its inspiring but , for the next decade or so , we are locked into mediocrity with no options.
here's a timeline of facts.
= Zorawar was Shunned into years of redevelopment and re trials
= GE engine supply has not stabilized for the F404IN20 , which is also a variant specific to the tejas.
= GE F414-HAL deal has hit cost negotiations
= AMCA timeline will stretch into the mid 2030s
= NO engine partner has been decided for the GTRE engine of AMCA
= MTAs aren't finalized
= CATS FF pushed to next year.
= TEJAS MK2 FF pushed to next year
= TEJAS MK1a induction pushed to sept.
= NO orders for major 1500 artillery gun requirement s , FRACTIONAL order for 300+ VAJRA and 309 ATAGS.
= NO Orders on WHAPS.
= NO updates on IMRH, TEDBF , HJT 36 , HLFT 42.
= NO orders for any major warships to sustain the capabilities of our docks.
= been 1200+ days since the last combat capable aircraft was inducted in IAF.
well you get the point.
your opponent is a 4.8x stronger economy , and more than that is numerically much much superior. you can argue on technology but their installed INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY dwarfs you.
so what are your options ?
MAD Doctrine
this is what protects you for now. till date. no major large scale war has occurred between 2 confirmed nuclear powers. that ain't a proxy war.
this doctrine will hold. but what will you do if china occupies a small piece of land ? you won't nuke them in return. or trigger the MAD doctrine.
what else option you have ?
CHOKEPOINTS
as per the current capability. i am of the opinion thar Indian Navy can successfully choke mellaca strait. yes. we have Brahmos ER and yes our ships are modern .
but what we don't have are any modern jets on our aircraft carriers. with both effectively operating Lemon jets in the form of Mig29k
and their submarine fleet is not one to underestimate.
im sure this will result in a large scale naval conflict. which i have no opinions for.
Asymmetry
Drones. Swarms , Strike packages, undercover assets, Regime Change, anything which bleeds more of their capacity and less of our rupees.
we are catching up but china already has a deep deep paw in all of the above matters. a lot of chinese tech is not publicly displayed. but ones like the drone / missile cannisters are disguised in Shipping containers can tell you a lot about how much they have invested in their doctrine. such containers can be put onto any random cargo ship heading for any major port from any of the chinese ports [ which are a lot ]. the threat is too much from these weapons.
lastly
Deterrence.
this is what came into my mind when i thought of writing this post. we MUST make sure that in any conventional war scenario , we hurt China so much that they don't even thing of invading,
Using conventional/ asymmetric capability to target their Economic centers, factories , defense industrial complexes, logistics , Fuel storages etc.
most importantly, the basis of this post.
DESTROY 3 GORGES DAM. how can it be done ? from AP , it's about 1500KM away.
we have already demonstrated our insane accuracy with the Brahmos and SCALP strikes during OP sindoor.
but this is a high target. deep inside china with multiple systems defending it thoroughly , the damn itself cannot be taken down by a single strike.
here is my opinion. make a LARGE version of the DRDO Ghatak. and make it capable enough to carry a hypersonic missile. a strike package of them should be enough.
rest. ICBMs , SUBSONIC Cruise missiles with long ass range. etc can also be good deterrence.
the end product is this. it's not that we have to do it. they should know that we are capable of doing it and we have a few loose screws with no screw driver in sight.
Fallback positions and continuity of government in a nuclear scenario.
The Americans keep two doomsday planes in the sky to ensure credible second strike and continuity of military command. For India, is there any indication similar systems exist in the Andamans, Lakshwadeep or perhaps in hill stations like Coorg or Ambikapur?
Questions regarding Shahbaz airbase strike by IAF during OP Sindoor
India hit critical infrastructure like the power supply unit, radars, hangars, Yet there's little visible smoke from the damaged hangar.
Why wasn't there more visible fire or smoke?
Could aircraft have been moved beforehand, or were they simply not burning? Also we know every American aircraft is under strict american supervision so Is there any credible basis of U.S. involvement?
Video courtesy: https://www.instagram.com/stratlense?igsh=MXZvZnpoNWQzaHN5cA==