Who will produce AMCA?
A lot of talk has been going on about private sector producing AMCA especially after Aeronautical Development Agency shortlisted 3 primary bidders: Tata Advanced Systems Ltd. (bidding independently), Larsen & Toubro-Bharat Electronics Ltd.-Dynamatic Technologies consortium and Bharat Forge Ltd. (Kalyani Group)-BEML-Data Patterns Ltd. consortium. I think most people know till here it was a big deal when announced.
But I see some critical problems. See, I am no aeronautical engineer to be able to give expert analysis of all the engineering challenges so take my opinions with a seaful of salt. While I appreciate that MoD is trying to decouple from the HAL monopoly, I think the private sector just doesn't have the necessary expertise, infrastructure and experience to lead a project of this magnitude, this scale and this technologically advanced. Lemme elaborate:
First of all, I want to look at the technical abilities and capabilities of all 3 consortiums:
- TASL: It is by far India's best private systems integrator (just behind HAL because HAL has decades of experience in executing projects though at a snail's pace and often without the necessary requirements). It has deep expertise in project management and a proven track record assembling C-295s and producing various parts as a Tier-1 suppliers for aircraft like Sikorsky S-92, CH-47 Chinook, AH-64 Apache and other aircraft/parts. They also have some of the best engineers and technicians as well as the prerequisite acumen and the deep financial muscle (due to Tata Group) to execute such a high profile project.
- L&T-BEL-Dynamatic: These are a group of highly capable Tier-1 suppliers who can technically transition as the LSI (lead systems integrator). L&T provides deep heavy engineering expertise having worked with global suppliers as well as having been a leading partner in the LCA program. BEL provides the only real end-to-end mission electronics capability in India (apart somewhat from Data Patterns and maybe a couple of other companies) they, as a CPSU, might be highly useful for political leverage (still believe politics is crucial in MoD), but their bigger PSU advantage is the financial muscle equivalent or greater than their bigger private partner as well as heavy technical expertise, massive infrastructure, decades old experience in defense electronics and proven ability to develop advanced tech in-house. Dynamatic offers a highly capable impact player type role because they are the specialized aerostructures partner who have also worked on the LCA program (which may offer pre built cooperation with L&T). Further L&T's critical subsystems level integration capability is unmatched by almost no one in India.
- Bharat Forge-BEML-Data Patterns: This is where I am a bit more skeptical, again I am no engineer so take this with some salt. Bharat Forge (and the wider Kalyani Group) have massive precision machining, forging and metallurgical capabilities yet they (arguably) don't have the same aeronautical expertise as say L&T or TASL which is why I think they originally brought BEML as the heavy engineering partner as well as their systems/subsystems integration ability as well as a PSU as their parent (Kalyani Group) lacks the deep pockets of L&T and TASL to support such a massive program. Data Patterns, like I said before, is one of the most complete vertically integrated defense electronics companies in India but as much as their technical capability goes, I don't have much faith in them being able to execute the kind of cutting edge technologies DRDO and other agencies are churning out and remember this isn't just another 4.5th gen jet, this is a full on 5th gen stealth fighter and is being envisaged to upgrade to 5.5th gen and eventually derived for a 6th gen so I'm not saying they won't be able to that would hugely undermine our talented engineers but I'm still skeptical. The consortium also has the added advantage of releasing a clear work share distribution early on. Overall, I think they're highly capable Tier-1/2 suppliers just not up to the topmost level.
Another important question is about the infrastructure. While most of the companies have their own dedicated factories/plants for that specific system or subsystem, my concern is about the FAL because just building an FAL isn't enough as it needs loads of supporting infra that people don't realize perhaps the most important is a runway next door (under 1-2 kms) because you need to test every single aircraft that you produce down from the the 1st prototype to the 300th series production derivative and given that all 3 consortiums are majorly/wholly private they have 2 options: 1) Build their own FAL with all supporting infra which will be extremely expensive and may slow down the program due to certification delays OR 2) Use HAL's facilities or ATR but there is barely any land next to HAL's main Bangalore campus and ATR is in Chitradurga which is a highly remote city in the interiors of Karnataka hundreds of kms away from the aerospace-industrial heartland in the south. While the AP Govt has positioned Puttaparthi as an alternate industrial hub with claims of 1 lakh crore in investment I highly doubt that it will be selected given the dearth of supporting industrial and aerospace infra nearby. The most likely contenders for me include Hyderabad (which is a major TASL hub plus the Rafale fuselage production center will be coming here too so there's added advantage) and Bangalore (which again is the primary aerospace-industrial hub of India plus its near L&T's primary aerospace campus in Coimbatore as well as being near to ADA). Please give suggestions about alternatives to these 2 places.
I think so the best case scenario right now is:
TASL gets the order but primarily as an LSI with limited Tier-1 work, the 2 other bidders are awarded the Tier-1/2 level work share by ADA, TASL sets up a new FAL preferably near one of the 3 air force stations but most likely Begumpet as it has the requisite supporting infra and crucially runway length to support worst case scenarios and we (hopefully) get the thing flying by 2029-2030 and inducted by 2035-2037.
Please let me know your thoughts.