u/Dubski333

I think this summer is going to be great for the box office, but it looks like it will start slow.

Obviously, could be wrong. But, looking at the slate for June and it’s pretty weak

In 2025, the June slate was disappointing as well outside of HTTYD, but it still had strong residuals from May with Lilo and Stitch and Mission Impossible

In 2026, the biggest May holdovers will be The Mandalorian and the Backrooms. Star Wars films tend to be front-loaded, but admittedly, Backrooms does have breakout potential. So without much from holdovers, the slate needs to be strong. But outside of Toy Story 5, there are no guaranteed big hitters.

But in July, that changes. Every July is good, but this one seems to be even better the usual. The first three weeks are stacked with massive releases, Minions, Moana, then the Odyssey. I believe the Odyssey is going to be even bigger than Oppenheimer, the hype has been unreal in my circles. And then on the last day of the month we get Spider-Man.

I think Spider-Man releasing on July 31st almost guarantees the biggest August ever. Late July tentpole release are always a huge holdovers for August, but they haven’t been released this late into the month before. Barbenheimer was 21st, Deadpool the 26th, Fantastic 4 the 25th. Spider Man will essentially have its entire run in August, meaning the rest of the slate doesn’t even need to be that good, but it still is.

Releases like Paw Patrol, End of Oak Street, Insidious, Coyote vs. Acme, etc. will help bring it across the finish line to the first 1 Billion dollar August since 2016.

So excited to be following the box office this season.

After Michael & Prada, I’ve noticed that the drops have been really good so far this year, so I looked into it. And compared to 2025, the numbers look to be really encouraging.

2025 had 7 movies with $100M domestic and over a 3x multiplier:

Avatar: 404M - 4.53x (Holiday)
Sinners: 280M - 5.83x
How To Train Your Dragon: 263M - 3.11x
Mission Impossible: 197M - 3.08x
F1: $190M - 3.33x
Weapons: $152M - 3.48x
The Housemaid: 126M - 6.65x (Holiday)

So far in 2026, there have been 3 movies with $100M domestic and over a 3x multiplier:

Project Hail Mary: 321M - 3.99x
Hoppers: $165M - 3.65x
GOAT: $103M - 3.80x

At first glance, it may not look that impressive. But the holiday season always has high mult movies, so if you take those out there are 5 movies for 2025. Additionally, at this same point in 2025, only 1 of those movies (Sinners) was released.

Michael & Prada both have potential to be 3x mult movies. If they achieve their potential, 2026 would already tie the non-holiday 2025 total. And the summer season has barely just begun. We are very ahead of schedule.

Anecdotally, word of mouth around the movies have been much stronger than in recent years. Maybe the movies have just been better, maybe audience habits are changing, maybe both. But you can feel the excitement around the movies more, at least in my circles. And the numbers seem to show it.

With Conley and Ant (rightfully) getting a lot of the praise for last night, I haven’t seen much attention on what TJ did.

He was awesome. While he was worst on the team in +-, the eye test showed me he stepped up tremendously.

In the non-Wemby minutes, he was relentless at attacking the basket. Getting us easy and quick points, and getting their defenders into foul trouble. Fouling out Castle was huge in the final stretch of the game.

Defensively, he was awesome, always giving 110%. Normally, he bites a lot on pump fakes, but I thought he was really disciplined. He also got so many big rebounds and hustle plays. You can tell he wants to make the most out of this opportunity and not leave the rotation again.

He should be playing every single non-Wemby minute even when Ayo comes back. Could be key to winning this series.