r/timberwolves

We are confident enough we are risking allot just waiting. Tho rui hachimura seems to be waiting for Lebron to pick so he can be one of the teams second choice lmao. I dont think waiting is all bad.

There’s been a consistent belief on this sub and around the league in general that why would LeBron go anywhere else but Cleveland since this is his last season. LeBron hasn’t said that. Nobody in his camp has said that. And people are supporting this with his documentary thing. Rich Paul played that down and said he’s had a crew following him around for the last 4 years.

In my opinion, LeBron has two seasons left.

1. He can use this next season as a legitimate chance to go after a ring

2. He can use the following season to go back to Cleveland for his “retirement tour” and this would also put him at 25 seasons in the NBA which is an insane story in and of itself.

3. To take this one step further, Bryce James is eligible for the 2027 NBA draft. Meaning playing 2 more seasons would allow LeBron to be in the league at the same time of both of his sons… which you have to imagine is something very enticing for him.

The reason this is important is because in my opinion the Wolves would have absolutely 0 chance of getting LeBron if this was his last year in the league. That just makes no sense. He wouldn’t finish his career in a Wolves uniform… BUT… Since I don’t believe that to be the case, I think the Wolves legitimately have a chance. Take us to the promised land LeBron!!

In this scenario contract value stays the same. So the new hypothetical player’s salary becomes the sum of both players contracts and would potentially cause some one to have a Super Duper Max. So the cap situation stays the same.

The easy answer is Ant and Lamelo into one player but I think this is sub optimal. We’d have to sign a min contract PG to fill the slot and we’d need a whole new playmaker to setup AntMelo Ballwards otherwise they could just double or triple him consistently.

I think combining TSJ and Clark is the most optimal combo. Terrlen Shark Jr. immediately becomes a second Jaden McDaniels with better offensive capabilities. That defense and offensive ability combined would perfectly fill our 4 slot without causing huge holes in our roster.

What are your thoughts?

I’ve been going back through last regular season for some of the best games to rewatch, so far I have:

-The Finch ejection OKC game
-Both Houston wins: the OT comeback and the end of season one with half the roster sitting
-The Bucks massacre with no Ant or Gobert
-Celtics win with the “no no no no YES” shot from Ant
-Raptors win - first win in Toronto since Bruce Lee died (citation needed)

Any others?

I think Josh Green is being underrated in what he brings to the table, especially as much needed wing depth on the roster.

Let's start with some obvious things, Green is not worth the 14.7m he's owed this season, in the open market he would probably be a TPMLE player, but he's still a solid player. Having him expire on our books and then re-signed at a lower AAV would actually be a really good move.

This is all assuming we don't get LeBron of course.

Profile

Green is a wing. He plays the 2 or the 3, he's decently sized for both positions at 6'6 with a 6'10 wing span. His main value is his high level defense coupled with good corner 3pt shooting and not requiring the ball at all to be effective.

He held PnR ballhandlers to 0.81 ppp on 2.5 possessions a game, the best mark on the Charlotte Hornets and held spot up shooters to just 0.89 ppp on 2 possessions a game, the 2nd best mark on the Hornets team, he also held isolation scorers to just 0.43 ppp a game on a small sample though. These marks are all below league average, meaning that Josh Green is making life quite difficult for whoever he guards.

He had a DFG% of 39.3%, forcing players to shoot 6% worse than their season averages. Players he defende shot 13% worse from 3 than their average.

Green has had good results against a variety of star players he's guarded in the past 2 seasons, of the players he's guarded with more than 80 possessions, he's had great success against Shai, Haliburton, Cade, Brunson, Wagner, Mitchell and Maxey. He's been terrible against Trae Young, Tyler Herro and Darius Garland. (https://databallr.com/matchups/1630182/josh-green/1630245/ayo-dosunmu/2024/2026) if you want to play around with it.

Advanced Metrics

Josh Green has basically non-existent box-score metrics, he's like a super low usage wing player that's on the court mostly for defense. The majority of his shots are 3 pointers off the catch. Playing with LaMelo (one season starting the other off the bench), Green is shooting 40% from 3 on 3 attempts per game, which is pretty solid.

Now, his advanced metrics are actually quite good:

DARKO -> +0.4 overall, +1 on defense. Would rank 6th on the Wolves for the 25-26 season above Beringer, Randle and Ayo. Ranks 149th in the NBA overall and 97th in defense. Very good rotation player numbers.

RAPM -> +3.2, ranking 29th in the NBA overall, -0.5, 150th overall if using the last 2 seasons

On/off -> +10.7 this season, highest on the Hornets and +1.5 last season, both years making big contributions defensively averaging a -3.8 defensive on/off.

Basically while he doesn't have good PRA at all, he's consistently made his team better and ranked pretty well using advanced metrics. His advanced numbers have improved while moving to Charlotte and playing with LaMelo

Fit

Green is a good 3 for us. He would make alot of sense as a starter as a super low usage 3&D player next to LaMelo/Ant/Jaden/Rudy. He can guard some matchups that McDaniels struggles against and keep him as a roamer at the 4 spot for alot of his minutes.

He has weaknesses as a rebounder, but hopefully with LaMelo and McDaniels away from the POA it allows us to maintain our rebounding level.

Having Green gives us a good defender to allow Jaden to play away from the ball on defense and allows Ant to guard the 2nd best handler instead, which would really help out. McDaniel's rim defense numbers are comparable to Evan Mobley, so just having him help Gobert and Joan is a big deal and reducing the amount of time he spends on the perimeter would be helpful.

Green is a worse player than Ayo, but requires the ball far less and is imo a better defender while hitting 3s at a good clip. I think he would be the better fit with the starting lineup and allow Ayo to have the ball more when he comes off the bench as the primary weapon there.

Conclusion

I actually think starting Green isn't a bad idea, he fits well with the other guys on the court and has a nice skillset in that role, on top of that you can easily just replace him with Ayo in matchups you think is best to have Ayo in the starting lineup instead

Re-signing Green to a lower value deal for him to come off the bench once we secure our PF would also be great and would open up alot of flexibility with the roster. Even if we get someone like Rui, I think Green still fits better in the starting 5 due to his defense and usage.

A small market star is headed to Minnnesota. He has some off-court issues. People don't like his attitude. The fanbase he's leaving is gutted to see him go. Stop me if you've heard this one before.

There are so many parallels between the Gobert and LaMelo trades.

Rudy was beloved in Utah, but disliked elsewhere. Same for LaMelo with Charlotte. Covid, Lavar Ball, speeding, their general attitudes.

Here is the other thing they have in common: They both single-handedly raise the Wolves' floor on one side of the ball.

I don't need to explain what Gobert did for this team. We all got to see what Jazz fans saw in him. LaMelo can bring that type of gravity on the offensive side of the ball.

Luckily, there is a stat that shows exactly how much a player affects their team's offense: On-Off Plus/Minus.

LaMelo Ball was tied for first in the league with Nikola Jokić at +13.

The Hornets were the best offense in the league with him on the floor and the worst offense in the league with him on the bench.

LaMelo was 7th in the league in EPM. The players in front of him were Wemby, Jokić, Kawhi, SGA, Giannis, and Luka. That is absurdly elite company. All are essentially good enough to get MVP consideration. The only players above him for offensive EPM are Jokic and Kawhi.

LaMelo completely transforms the Timberwolves offense the way Gobert did our defense. I absolutely love this trade. And like with Gobert, I think Wolves fans are about to find out just how good LaMelo actually is.

I've seen lots of comparisons or analogies of the LaMelo trade, including a recent post about how the LaMelo trade is similar to the Rudy trade.

To me, there's one be-all, end-all trade comparison, though. I mean this unironically (although the irony cannot be ignored) - it reminds me far more of the Knicks acquiring KAT, solely from the Knicks perspective.

Both KAT/LaMelo had generally poor reputations and got frequently clowned on, despite their skillset and production. Yet the respective local fanbases were heartfully scorned by the trade.

Both KAT/LaMelo joined a team with a bona fide and unarguable #1 option, where they were heading to be the clear, offensive-oriented #2.

Both KAT/LaMelo joined a team with good preexisting defensive backbone (Knicks had OG/Bridges, Wolves have Rudy/Jaden).

Both KAT/LaMelo were arguably traded in part from their lifelong teams due to big picture salary reasons - with an almost callous or cold disregard to the prior season success each of them had just had.

I could go on and on but I'll leave it there. Hopefully, it works out as good or better for Minnesota as it did for NYK.

He chose a team that was originally based in MN

Replacing Julius Randle as the PF in the starting lineup

With a European center (Zubac)

With a Ball brother as the starting PG

We all know where this is headed