u/DynastyMetriX

It’s the time of season where the waiver wire is getting thin. Though with bye season now upon us and the injury rollercoaster continuing it’s run down the tracks, there’s always a need available for either a necessary replacement or long-term investment. I was looking at my websites stats page and trying to find players that had good production data this year but are bit players on offenses currently, and given their DMX score have potential to be more than a bit player in the near future. Most of these players are not going to be on the wire today, but they are in situations where their roles are good (but not great), the data says their performing well, and they are young enough to be good dynasty investments now, and their value has likely not yet peaked, so you don’t have to break the bank and the payoff could be handsome in a year or two. Throw these guys in with some bigger players as add ons, or pick them off with a 2^(nd) rounder or less, and it will likely be worth your while.

Quick note, DPX and DMX are in-season and pre-draft performance metrics, respectively, that pull together volume, efficiency and scoring (DPX) and draft, combine and college stats (DMX) into one measure to help identify quality players to pull onto your roster. I recently updated our stats page to include usage and next gen stats, and I wanted to use it for this analysis. Here’s a few players that stood out:

• Roman Wilson – DMX: 0.66, DPX Now: 0.56 – Wilson was a decile 3 WR coming out of college, he had a 37% chance of having a peak season that was starter quality. This means he was better than average but not elite. In his third year he’s averaging 6 targets a game, and literally has had 6 targets in every game, Mr. Consistent. His target share avg. is 16.8%, pretty good for a guy many thought would be behind Germie Bernard after the draft. But guess what, through 4 games that’s 2 more targets a game than Michael Pittman, which means very quietly Wilson has taken over as WR2 in Pittsburgh. Now, likely he’s on rosters at this point but there is still an opportunity here to get him at a decent price. He’s never going to be a WR1, and who knows who’ll be QBing in Pittsburgh next year, but Wilson is only 25 and can be a solid WR2 for your dynasty team for years to come, if you can grab him before he has a blowout game.
• Tre Harris – DMX: 0.86, DPX Now: 0.20 – Another decile 3 WR coming out who had some hype due to Quenton Johnston’s brick hands. He’d fallen out of favor a bit with Ladd McConkey coming on board, but he can’t stay healthy (though he’s played every game so far this year), Harris has benefited. Now I’ll recognize up front the Chargers offense is not doing well right now, but you can use that to your advantage to nab Harris while he’s still cheap. He’s performing well as his DPX score shows (above zero is good, below bad and magnitude of score matters), but what’s really interesting so far is his targets per game and target share. He’s leading the Chargers in targets per game at 5.3 and target share of 18.5%. Now, we know that’s likely due to Ladd McConkey’s injuries to some extent, but still, McConkey has played every game. It’s pretty good production for a guy you could pick up on the waiver wire at the beginning of the season. Due to his current production, that’s likely no longer the case. But as I said, with the LAC offense struggling, this is a good time to get him low and see if these trends continue. At very least, Johnston is in the final year of his contract and likely won’t be back next year, and Tre Harris can be a productive WR2 at likely a WR3 or 4 price. Harris btw, is also flagged as a breakout candidate on our site.
• Terrance Ferguson – DMX: 1.38, DPX Now: -0.12 – Ferguson landed on IR this week, the perfect time to poach him for a bright dynasty future. I’ll admit this one is tough to navigate, as the Rams have a lot of TE’s and seem to rotate them randomly. But he’s 2^(nd) among those TE’s at 4 targets per game and target share at 12.6%. The cool thing is his advanced metrics as YAC over expected is 1.4 vs. Higbee’s -0.6. At 23, Ferguson is on my site as a breakout candidate and his main competition is 33 and on a modest 2-year contract. Ferguson is the better bet, he showed what he could do in week 2 when he had 6 catches for 54 yards. While he’ll be up and down this year, his arrow is solidly up, and trading while he’s on IR is the perfect time to nab him.
• Kaelon Black – DMX: 0.30, DPX Now: -0.62 – Black surprised many people when he received the same number of touches as Christian McCaffrey week 1 (15). That hasn’t happened since, but Black is still averaging 8 touches per game, about half of what CMC gets. Being the main backup to CMC in San Francisco gets a lot of attention, so again, this guy is not just out there an available, but he had a good enough college profile and has a solid enough role on the team right now, that you can even play him in deep leagues without CMC getting injured or anything (and I certainly don’t wish for that). I’m not fond of that negative DPX Now score, but that’s not unusual for a rookie bit player. His yards per carry is 3.9 which is not bad for a rookie, and his usage is very positive this early in his career.
• Tai Felton – DMX: 1.08  – Felton does not have enough data to score, in DPX Now, and he is the one player here who is likely to be on the wire. His role is miniscule compared to the other on this list. But interestingly, Jauan Jennings has not performed this year and seems to be falling out of favor. So much so, they just signed Odell Beckham. And look, Felton will play behind both of those guys for the near future. But Felton has a rookie profile closer to Jordan Addison’s than anyone else’s on this WR Corps (Addison DMX: 1.15, Felton: 1.08). Felton at this point in the year is third in targets on the WR corps, though that’s not saying much at 1.5 per game. The Vikings obviously don’t trust him enough to be their WR3 today. But that doesn’t mean the situation can’t evolve. And Felton has the pedigree (DMX score) to suggest that despite a slow start to his career, he could evolve into a solid WR role player that can be useful on your roster. He’s free now, so picking him up to see what happens costs nothing but a roster spot.

In week 1 I told you that week 3 is where signals start to become trends and if you didn’t have a knee jerk reaction to a week 1 or 2 flop, you’ll start to have better information. Welp…here we are. Week 3 is in the books, so what does the data say? Here is some of my data for you to consider.

First, some context. I run a data driven dynasty site where I create a metric called DPX, which is one metric that combines NFL stats and advanced stats for volume, efficiency and scoring into one signal. I have DPX Base which is last year’s full season production score (2025 in this case) and DPX Now which is this season’s production score (2026, through week 3). Comparing the two now, and as the season progresses, help you not only understand who’s over-performing and underperforming compared to last year, but why their underperforming (volume, efficiency, scoring). All figures through week 3 are pulled Tuesday morning.

After week 3, we can do this analysis safely and while it’s never final or perfect, it certainly provides some information to consider, especially when you’re managing dynasty rosters and you don’t want to make any rash decisions. Let’s start with the good news, here are players who have a negative DPX Base (performed under baseline in 2025) who are breaking out this year:

• Isaiah Likely – DPX Base: -0.16, DPX Now: 1.67 – This is Likely’s time to shine. Yes, he lost Jackson Dart, but Jamies Winston throws the rock pretty well, just as often to the other team as his own. Likely will be ok this year. From a dynasty perspective, this is the opportunity we were seeking for Likely as he gets out of Mark Andrew’s shadow in Baltimore. If you have him, keep him. If you can buy low because of the Dart injury, do so.
• Matthew Golden – DPX Base: -0.38, DPX Now: 1.70 – Golden is making the second-year leap. His rookie year the WR corps in Green Bay was much too crowded, it’s been thinned out now and the main targets now are him and Christian Watson. This is a very strong signal from a player that had a top decile DMX draft score. If you drafted him, congratulations, you likely have a strong fantasy asset going forward.
• Jalen Coker – DPX Base: -0.07, DMX Now: 1.09 – Coker has been the best WR on the Carolina so far this year, but it’s only week 3. Tet McMillan will have his moments, but to get this kind of production from an undrafted player bucks the trends. He’s only 24, Bryce Young is starting to round out his form too, so from a dynasty perspective Carolina may actually be a pretty good offense to buy into for a few years. If he’s still reasonable or someone is selling high, Coker is a worthy target based on our data.
• Bhayshul Tuten – DPX Base: -0.57, DPX Now: 0.56 – He’s not getting superior volume or scoring right now, but the efficiency is there and he’s the clear leader of this committee. He’s only 24, and his score change from last year to this year isn’t as dramatic as the others above, but I believe it’s a strong enough signal that from a dynasty perspective he’s someone you want to have on your team. It doesn’t hurt that Jax is performing very well these days, and he may have a long runway for success there from a dynasty perspective.

And here are players who had positive DPX Base (performed over baseline in 2025) who have fallen below baseline (Negative DPX Now) in 2026:

• Drake Maye – DPX Base: 1.16, DPX Now: -0.23 – Wow, didn’t see this one coming. Honestly, in my humble opinion this scoring change between year 2 and year 3 makes Maye a hold rather than a sell in my book. He lost AJ Brown and he has a strong enough year last year to suggest this could be just growing pains. That said, the signal is pretty strong, if you have other QBs to start, I would do so at this point.
• Rome Odunze – DPX Base: 0.67, DPX Now -0.06 – Ben Johnson is a serious enough offensive mind to consider keeping Odunze, but he’s yet to breakout and it’s fair to say with so many other talented players on the team, he may never pay back the first round pick you used on him. If you can get something valuable for him, this may be a good time to do it.
• Courtland Sutton – DPX Base: 0.68, DPX Now: -0.21 – Bo Nix is underperforming (while I’m not highlighting Nix on this list, he’s also gone from positive last year to negative so far this year) and Courtland Sutton is 30 years old. You may well be too late, but if he bounces back a little this season, and you can get something for him or add him to a trade that brings some youth or picks, do it before it’s too late.
• Quinton Johnston – DPX Base: 0.67, DPX Now: -0.25 – This guy. Between an awful rookie year and a couple of productive scoring years, what do you do with him. Well, this score solidly says sell him if you can. With LAC’s offense being Mike McDaniel’d, it may be too late. But it doesn’t look like Johnston is getting any better than what he is today, a once in a while scoring threat with bad hands.

To finish up, some things to consider. Of the 66 players who qualified to be on these lists after week 2, only 61 qualify after week 3, and a third of the names changed between weeks. That is why you want to wait until at least week 3 to make decisions on these players. The first couple of weeks moves things in either direction, often quite a bit. This is not a comprehensive list, these are the players with some of the biggest variances between these two metrics that would have an impact on dynasty rosters.

Bottom line: working with data helps you move away from media driven hot takes to actual performance against a baseline. Measuring all of the statistically significant measures rather than cherry-picking one to make a point, helps you understand the bigger picture. Data is not perfect, and judgement is also required to interpret what these signals mean and how you make decisions for your roster. Happy hunting!