u/E_lenaa

We usually place bets on the podium. We’ve done a post like that before. But what if we place bets on the women attempting difficult elements instead!

After all, we already know which elements the women have been trying out in practice (there’s a post about this below).

How many quad attempts? How many 3A attempts? How many landings of ultra-C elements with positive GOE? How many falls on ultra-C elements? How many women will attempt a quad or a 3A? How many popped jumps? How many ultra-C elements in comb? Separate predictions for the SP and Free FP.

I’ve listed some betting options, but you can choose any of them - or come up with your own idea and post your prediction! After the competition, I’ll update the post with the final results for each point so we can look back and compare!

My bets:

1. 5 women will attempt ultra-C elements

2. There will be at least 1 popped jump

3. 2 combinations featuring ultra-C elements

4. At least one 3A will receive a final score of 10.4+ (all judges awarding +3 or higher)

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Hi! I'm 25, a native Russian speaker, and I live in Russia, Moscow.

I'd like to find a regular conversation partner who is a native English speaker (American English preferred), who is learning Russian, with whom I can help.

I have a pretty good idea of what I'm looking for, so I'll go into detail below. Please leave a comment if this approach resonates with you and you'd like to give it a try! I've written a long message to address the main questions upfront.

I see our communication in the format of text messages and voice messages (I'd like to start on Reddit and then move to Telegram for exchanging voice messages).

We would ask each other questions, write detailed responses, and carefully explain mistakes. A bit of regular practice — ideally daily. Like mini-essays. (I hope this doesn't sound scary, haha)

In addition, at other times, casual chatting. Answering simple questions. Explaining differences in word meanings. Correcting mistakes. Just practicing conversation, with explanations of how native speakers actually talk. And importantly, help with pronunciation (for that, I need you to have Telegram or be willing to download it).

My English level is A2(writing)–B1(-B2 understanding). I would like your Russian level to be A2 or higher (if it's lower, I'm afraid it might be difficult for me to help you without a teaching background. But if you've independently learned the basics and already understand some things and can write on your own, then we should be comfortable communicating).

I also hold the view that receiving input is easier than producing output. To see and hear Russian, you can read books or watch videos. But you probably find it hard to find someone you can actually speak Russian with. So at this stage, I'd prefer that about 70% of your outgoing messages be in Russian, and about 70% of mine in English. Each of us can use our native language for explanations, when tired, for pronunciation guidance, or at the other person's request. Maybe in some other cases too — nothing too strict. But these are my initial preferences, because the goal is to practice speaking and get feedback on it. Though I have nothing against us switching to an interesting, complex topic where you speak English and I speak Russian, and we use translators for understanding — because a good, engaging conversation beats any rules.

As for pronunciation, I hope you won’t have any trouble with it. You can repeat the words slowly, sound by sound, clearly, or by emphasizing the stress. The goal is to get a clear, comfortable sound, rather than a whisper muffled by the rustling of packaging and recorded under a blanket. Or something like that. I will also record the pronunciation of the words and sounds you need, so you can hear them clearly and repeat them with ease.

I'd also like our communication to be regular. We can write to each other at any time of day or night, and reply as soon as we see the message if possible. But if you know you won't be able to respond for several hours, it would be great to let me know in a short message. I'd just like to avoid situations where I ask a simple question and get a reply 20 hours later, while all that time I'm wondering why you're not around. That said, this doesn't mean I expect you to be constantly available. I'm sure we'll find a comfortable format by discussing it personally.

I also hope we’ll be understanding of the fact that our language proficiency isn't very high and that our languages ​​have quite a few differences. What I mean is, if I write in Russian, I’ll keep in mind that I’m not speaking to a native speaker and will simplify my language a bit. I’ll try to avoid obscure slang or unnecessarily complex words, and I’ll construct my sentences correctly — without intentionally breaking the rules — so that even a translator tool gives you an accurate result. Think of it like adapted books — this will be a slightly adapted dialogue, lol. Not to make the task easier, but simply to avoid making it unnecessarily complicated. And I expect the same approach from you — at least until our skills improve.

Ultimately, I'd like our communication to be interesting. For each of us to want to ask the other questions and receive answers. I'm tired of superficial dialogues like "hi, where are you from, what do you do" followed by the person disappearing on apps like HelloTalk. So I'm for open dialogue on various topics. Including — if you don't like something about our communication, tell me rather than ghosting. If you're tired today and don't feel like practicing Russian, let me know too — in English. Maybe that day we just chat in your language without focusing on Russian practice. Or vice versa. I want this to be useful, but not feel like an obligation — enjoyable for both you and me.

It's hard for me to define specific topics I'd like to discuss, because literally anything goes. I'm ready to talk about what each of us had for lunch, our thoughts on a new movie, or a disagreement with a best friend. I'm ready to discuss supermarket prices or cultural traditions in our countries. I can reflect on the quality of education or everyday habits, talk about a doctor's visit or discuss a sports competition. I don't think we need to search for special topics — I believe the best option is to talk about what surrounds us in daily life. I'm also open to discussing topics unfamiliar to either of us, where one of us can explain more about it. I think absolutely any topic is open for discussion, but if one of us feels uncomfortable, they can always say "no" and we'll move on to something else.

Important: I don't want our dialogues to turn into arguments where one tries to prove something to the other. I'm open to discussions on various topics, but with the goal of understanding the other person's point of view, not proving my own. And I expect the same from you.

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Well, if you've read this far and all my preferences resonate with you positively, then I'd be happy to get to know you!

I can't guarantee that our communication will take place, but I see the point in trying. At least until one of us says it's useless and wants to stop.

If you have a different view on any part of my approach, you can also write about it in the comments and perhaps find a conversation partner whose vision aligns with yours.

Thank you!

Do we have a rough or precise understanding of the load placed on an athlete's knees and spine by specific jumps?

In fact, I was curious about which puts more strain on the athlete's knees and spine: a triple throw or a solo quad jump. And what's the difference in load between a triple throw and a triple jump?

And if we go deeper, what's the difference between a triple or a quad? What's the difference between a 3T and a 3Lz/3Lo and other jumps? Does the load on the second jump of a combination increase compared to a similar solo jump?

How much does the load increase with a poor landing or a landing followed by a fall?

It's unlikely that this has any scientific basis. But if you've come across any studies, comments from skaters or coaches, or can share your own experiences, please do so; I'm very interested! You can also add to my questions on this topic. Also share your assumptions and thoughts, let's think about it together.

Malinin performed 7 quads in his program. Which athletes have performed 6? 5? 4 quads in a program? 3 quads for men, I think, are quite common. So it's interesting to remember everyone who did more than 3. At least in one competition, but without falling on the jump. Who do you remember? And what season was that?(If you remember)

I'm also curious which men have mastered all the quads and have we seen them in competitions or at least in training videos? Besides 4A, of course. Who do you remember?

I was wondering how many figure skaters, for various reasons, didn't qualify for the Olympics despite being capable of achieving a high level? The first one that comes to mind is Kostornaia, who didn't go due to injury or a quota spot. Then there's Tuktamysheva, who could have achieved a high level at the Olympics but couldn't qualify. And Malinin in 2022(Although I have doubts about what place he could have taken)

Who else do you know?

I'm also curious if there have been situations where an athlete made it to the Olympics but wasn't in their best shape, and then couldn't go to their second Olympics for whatever reason, even though they were stronger in the Olympic season than the previous one.

Only those who participated in other competitions during the Olympic season are taken into account. But if an athlete was absent from the Olympic season due to injury, but showed good results in the following season, and you think that if not for the injury, he would have been in the top 6, say something about them too.

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Since the fact of Russians being allowed to compete is no longer just a theory, I would like to discuss what forecasts we have, who we can expect to see at competitions, what placements they might get, and how many quotas they can earn this season (2026/27) and next season (2027/28). What we can expect from Russian skaters and who might become their main competitors.

I ask that you refrain from political discussions and from sharing your opinions on the permission itself. It is a fact. It has happened. Let's now talk specifically about figure skating. Thank you.

Below is my reasoning. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. And let's make some predictions that we can revisit in a year and in two years!

I am also not taking visa issues into account, only the athletes' abilities. Although a visa could indeed become a problem.

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Seniors.

Many of them will compete at Challenger events. Some will be able to get onto Grand Prix stages. It's still unclear who will be sent and what their results will be, so I will mostly be discussing the major competitions.

Also, as I understand it, the winner of RusNats will become the main candidate for other competitions, but the federation has the right to send another athlete at its discretion.

And if I understand the status of AIN correctly, under the new rules it is given automatically to everyone. However, if someone files a complaint and provides evidence of a lack of neutrality, then an investigation will be conducted and the AIN status could be revoked.

Let's begin.

Women.

I think they will send Adeliia Petrosian. She is on the national team, has recovered from injuries, restored her jumps, and has an international ranking. Even if the decision is made independently of RusNats (although I think it will be influenced and they will be more willing to send the one who takes 1st place), she also has a chance to take 1st place there. Adeliia also has a high chance of getting onto Grand Prix stages (her season best from last season moved her up in the queue. And as we know, in a post-Olympic season there are many withdrawals, which also increases her chances). At the Olympics she placed 6th. At the European Championships, there will be no Americans or Japanese (at the Olympics in Milan, only Japanese and American women were above Adeliia). She has every chance to take 1st-2nd place and earn 3 quotas for the 2027/28 season. At the World Championships it will be more difficult. But if she, while injured, became 6th at the Olympics, then without injuries she has every chance to also be in the top-6 and fight for the podium. And that's a minimum of 2 quotas for the next season.

I would also consider the option that Russia will send Alexandra Trusova. Sasha will also be judged well (by "well" I mean at the level of the last warm-up groups, not at the level of the first warm-up group, in which they might have to skate. I don't yet understand whether AIN will affect their starting order in the draw). But Sasha is in the reserve national team and we don't know what to expect from her in the season. However, at the Tutberidze show 3 months ago, she performed a 4Lz in her program. A senior quad could allow her to win domestically. In principle, the outlook for her is the same as for Adeliia. Also, I saw information that Sasha may have recently received a US visa, which would give her a chance at the American Grand Prix stage.

Alisa Dvoeglazova is injured. She definitely won't be sent. I also doubt that any of the other girls will be sent, as they are completely unknown. And as we know, recognition affects international starts. Alisa or any other girl in the first warm-up group will be judged as a girl from the first warm-up group, even though her skills are higher. Russia needs quotas and cannot allow that to happen.

My prediction: Petrosian or Trusova will go. A medal at the European Championships. Top-6 at the World Championships. A high probability of making the Grand Prix Final. We will definitely see ultra-c elements. The question is who, besides the Russians, will be showing them (Mao Shimada, Ami Nakai, will anyone else restore or learn new jumps?).

Men.

I think Petr Gumennik will go. At the European Championships, a top-4 finish is highly likely. World Championships - top-8. That would also mean 2 quotas for the next season. Petr has the same situation with the Grand Prix as Petrosian. If Malinin withdraws from a competition, Petr could go to the American stage (he already has a US visa, unlike Adeliia. Yes, I touched on the visa issue a bit). But even without Malinin's withdrawal, Petr has chances for medals at Grand Prix stages. And I think chances to get onto the stages themselves will still appear due to withdrawals of other athletes. And in the end, I don't rule out his chance to make the Grand Prix Final. Although I don't consider that chance high.

I would also not exclude the option that instead of Petr, Evgeni Semenenko will go. He was the silver medalist at the RusNats 2026, and hasn't had any injuries. The international audience remembers him, and he spent his training camps with Benoit, improving his skating skills. He also apparently had a program choreographed by him. Both he and Petr could bring back 2 quotas for the next season from both the European and World Championships.

I would like to consider Mark Kondratiuk as well, but I have doubts that his AIN status might be challenged.

I would also be interested to see Vladislav Dikidzhi. He's the guy who also landed a 4A (at a jumping tournament and in practice, including on the ice of Lake Baikal). It seems to me that if he successfully performs the 4A at domestic competitions and especially if he places higher than Petr/Evgeni at RusNats, then his candidacy will also be considered for international events.

Pairs.

This is the discipline where I really missed Russian athletes. Boikova/Kozlovskii are the most likely option. And they will now have a huge motivation to beat Mishina/Galliamov. Moreover, Mishina/Galliamov will have to go through the AIN verification process again. In any case, at any competition, they will be on the podium. Most likely in the 2027/28 season there will be 3 quotas. The team also has a chance, through Challengers, to get on the waiting list for Grand Prix stages, win them, and make the Grand Prix Final. I see this as very likely. And I also want to see them perform a quad throw at international competitions.

Ice Dance.

Stepanova/Bukin will have to prove their AIN status. The second team is Kaganovskaia/Nekrasov. I really like this team, but this season I don't think they will be able to place very high. In ice dance, judging is very important and there is a "queue." I think they have a chance to be in the top-10 and earn 2 quotas for the country, but I can't say I'm sure of it. Judging is very important.

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Juniors.

As I understand it, juniors already have 2 quotas each for the Junior Grand Prix stages. For the Junior World Championships, there is also 1 quota each.

Women.

Elena Kostyleva. The most likely option. But under the current AIN rules, I have questions about whether her coach Evgeni Plushenko will receive this status. If Plushenko does not get AIN, will Elena go with another coach or not go at all? I think this issue will be resolved. Or Evgeni will go as a representative of the Azerbaijani national team. Elena has every chance for 1st places at all competitions. I think we will see at least one gold medal.

The second, I think, will be Sofia Dzepka. An interesting girl with beautiful skating. I think she has every chance to get on the podium.

In the end, 3 quotas for the World Championships are very likely for the girls, and 2 quotas for the next season are guaranteed. They also have a high chance of getting 3 quotas for the 2028/29 season through the sum of placements at competitions.

Men.

Lev Lazarev. A strong and interesting boy. I think he even has a chance for 1st-2nd place this season. At minimum, that's a top-4 finish at the Junior World Championships.

Second place - Arseniy Fedotov. He is somewhat weaker, but can still provide competition. There is a good chance of winning medals at Junior Grand Prix stages. Top-6 for sure. The junior men have a chance to get 3 quotas at the Junior World Championships, but 2 they will definitely get. Just like the girls.

Pairs and Dance.

Unfortunately, I don't follow juniors in these disciplines closely enough to compare. It would be great if one of you could share your opinion.

The test skates for the Russian junior national team will take place on July 28-31. I think the distribution of juniors for competitions will become clear then.

The senior test skates will take place on September 19-20.

I also assume that some girls who competed at the senior level last season may decide to compete among juniors this season.

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That is my opinion on the chances of Russian athletes to restore quotas and on their placements for the next 2 seasons. I will add that I assume we will see many others at Challengers and Grand Prix stages. And RusNats will be one of the most interesting competitions of the season.

What do you think about the chances of Russian athletes?

(I repeat. Please, no politics. Just figure skating, skills, and probable placements at competitions.)