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Best Ball Stock Market: NFL Draft Post-Mortem

With the draft one week in our rear-views, we have real market data on who the biggest risers and fallers are over the last month, including from the NFL draft. These are taken from Underdog’s Best Ball ADP, from early April → Today, so not precisely just capturing the draft, but close.

# Post-Draft Market Reactions: 📈 Risers and 📉 Fallers


## 📈 Best Ball Risers


| Team | Player                  | Pos | ADP   |    CHG |   CHG % |
| ---- | ----------------------- | --- | ----: | -----: | ------: |
| SEA  | Jadarian Price          | RB  |  59.7 | ▲ 49.4 | ▲ 45.3% |
| KC   | Rashee Rice             | WR  |  20.2 | ▲ 14.7 | ▲ 42.1% |
| PHI  | DeVonta Smith           | WR  |  30.7 | ▲ 10.3 | ▲ 25.1% |
| SF   | De'Zhaun Stribling      | WR  | 180.5 | ▲ 59.5 | ▲ 24.8% |
| TEN  | Tony Pollard            | RB  |  80.7 | ▲ 24.6 | ▲ 23.4% |
| WSH  | Jacory Croskey-Merritt  | RB  | 109.8 | ▲ 30.2 | ▲ 21.6% |
| WSH  | Antonio Williams        | WR  | 184.2 | ▲ 50.0 | ▲ 21.3% |
| PHI  | Dontayvion Wicks        | WR  | 191.9 | ▲ 40.6 | ▲ 17.5% |
| HOU  | David Montgomery        | RB  |  48.6 |  ▲ 8.6 | ▲ 15.0% |
| GB   | Jayden Reed             | WR  |  90.4 | ▲ 15.5 | ▲ 14.6% |
| CAR  | Jonathon Brooks         | RB  | 127.4 | ▲ 21.8 | ▲ 14.6% |
| JAX  | Chris Rodriguez         | RB  | 117.5 | ▲ 19.6 | ▲ 14.3% |
| MIA  | Chris Bell              | WR  | 198.9 | ▲ 29.8 | ▲ 13.0% |
| KC   | Kenneth Walker III      | RB  |  15.6 |  ▲ 2.3 | ▲ 12.8% |
| NYG  | Cam Skattebo            | RB  |  49.8 |  ▲ 7.0 | ▲ 12.3% |
| PIT  | Germie Bernard          | WR  | 184.3 | ▲ 25.3 | ▲ 12.1% |
| BAL  | Derrick Henry           | RB  |  18.0 |  ▲ 2.4 | ▲ 11.8% |
| HOU  | Woody Marks             | RB  | 144.9 | ▲ 18.9 | ▲ 11.5% |
| LV   | Tre Tucker              | WR  | 171.4 | ▲ 21.7 | ▲ 11.2% |
| BUF  | Skyler Bell             | WR  | 211.8 | ▲ 26.7 | ▲ 11.2% |


## 📉 Best Ball Fallers


| Team | Player           | Pos | ADP   |     CHG |    CHG % |
| ---- | ---------------- | --- | ----: | ------: | -------: |
| ARI  | Tyler Allgeier   | RB  | 150.1 | ▼ -62.8 | ▼ -71.9% |
| ARI  | Jeremiyah Love   | RB  |  23.4 |  ▼ -7.7 | ▼ -49.0% |
| ARI  | James Conner     | RB  | 212.4 | ▼ -50.9 | ▼ -31.5% |
| NO   | Chris Olave      | WR  |  34.5 |  ▼ -7.4 | ▼ -27.3% |
| ARI  | Trey McBride     | TE  |  23.1 |  ▼ -4.2 | ▼ -22.2% |
| DEN  | RJ Harvey        | RB  |  79.7 | ▼ -13.2 | ▼ -19.8% |
| SEA  | Emanuel Wilson   | RB  | 191.8 | ▼ -27.0 | ▼ -16.4% |
| NYJ  | Adonai Mitchell  | WR  | 197.3 | ▼ -26.9 | ▼ -15.8% |
| TB   | Bucky Irving     | RB  |  43.0 |  ▼ -5.3 | ▼ -14.1% |
| PHI  | Makai Lemon      | WR  |  72.5 |  ▼ -8.6 | ▼ -13.5% |
| SF   | Ricky Pearsall   | WR  |  97.1 | ▼ -11.4 | ▼ -13.3% |
| TEN  | Chimere Dike     | WR  | 215.4 | ▼ -24.6 | ▼ -12.9% |
| DEN  | Jonah Coleman    | RB  | 146.5 | ▼ -16.7 | ▼ -12.9% |
| NE   | Kayshon Boutte   | WR  | 191.2 | ▼ -21.4 | ▼ -12.6% |
| NYJ  | Mason Taylor     | TE  | 215.3 | ▼ -24.0 | ▼ -12.5% |
| TEN  | Wan'Dale Robinson| WR  | 113.6 | ▼ -11.2 | ▼ -10.9% |
| NE   | Romeo Doubs      | WR  | 104.7 |  ▼ -9.9 | ▼ -10.4% |
| TB   | Sean Tucker      | RB  | 203.8 | ▼ -18.1 |  ▼ -9.7% |
| CLE  | Harold Fannin    | TE  |  87.9 |  ▼ -7.8 |  ▼ -9.7% |
| LV   | Fernando Mendoza | QB  | 165.6 | ▼ -14.2 |  ▼ -9.4% |

Risers

I don’t think anyone expected Price’s ADP to climb into the 50s! That’s maybe the value I would have expected after a full preseason of positive coverage. I wouldn’t expect him to be that high in redraft ADP when that season comes, unless the buzz from preseason builds enough steam. I think for redraft this will be purely a wait-and-see what we hear from training camp, so stay tuned to our Training Camp Buzz section over the next few months.

No surprises with Rice and Smith, we wrote about both of those players last week, along with Tony Pollard and Cam Skattebo. The price of all of these guys, except Rice is in my opinion starting to push into meh value territory. The market has caught on to Jayden Reed as well.

I’m very surprised that Wicks’ value is not in the red, probably because this data also captures his trade from GB to PHI, so the net of that plus the draft is still positive.

Fallers

I know people weren’t crazy on the Cardinals as a landing spot for Love but what a nuke: the top 3 fallers are all from the AZ RB room. Love’s value dropped by about 50% from a mid second almost to an early third, which is indicative of both risk and value. James Conner joins Trey Benson as two cooked pieces of toast. Oddly Trey McBride seems to have taken some collateral damage from the draft as well - maybe pertaining more to Carson Beck being taken in the 3rd round?

Olave falling is awesome, frankly. The Saints high pace offense should have plenty of pie to share around to Jordan Tyson, defenses will be more stretched out, and there’s always the added wildcard of a year 2 Shough leap. Of course this is best ball data, but I’ll be all over Olave for a late third round pick if that ends up his redraft value.

Fannin, Bucky, and Pearsall are all getting yummier as well.

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How do you guys think these will translate to redraft ADP come August?

"The Dog That Didn't Bark"

The phrase comes from a Sherlock Holmes tale, The Adventure of Silver Blaze, where Sherlock solves the case by noticing that a watchdog didn’t bark during the crime — indicating the intruder was someone the dog was familiar with.

Sometimes the loudest signal is in what didn’t happen rather than what did.

That’s the same idea we’re going to apply here: we’ll take a look at some of the biggest non-actions by teams from the first two days of the draft to determine whose values subtly boomed.

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1. Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Despite any preconceptions you might have about the human, Rice's value this offseason has withstood two major tests. First, the NFL closed its investigation into Rice's off-field conduct (no surprises there), clearing the opportunity for Rice to get on the field in the 2026 season. There had been buzz leading up to the draft regarding an early Makai Lemon or Jordan Tyson pick which, had the first point gone a different way, would have been perhaps more realistic of an outcome. But Rice survives both hurdles, and with the positive trending news on Patrick Mahomes' rehab, Rice seems like one of the safest bets to make heading into draft season.

2. Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants

With the departure of last year's No. 8 target earner Wan'Dale Robinson AND the Giants' last-minute acquisition of a second top-10 pick in the 2026 draft, speculation grew that they could use it to round out their WR room. Especially considering the recent injury history of star WR Malik Nabers coupled with the surplus of Round 1 WR talent in the draft. But the Giants wait until Round 3 and grab Malachi Fields — a patient pick that has been met with positive perception and less target competition for Nabers. There will not be a bigger "pucker factor" you can draft next season, provided that Nabers can get back on the field at even 90% strength.

3. Cam Skattebo - RB, New York Giants

Another rumor that surfaced during the lead-up to the draft was that the Giants could have used their original top-10 pick on Jeremiyah Love. But as soon as the Cardinals selected Love at 3, that door shut. And what’s more, the Giants used their No. 10 pick on star Miami tackle Francis Mauigoa, an additional bolster of power on the offensive line for Cam Skattebo to run behind.

4. Zay Flowers - WR, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens brought in Declan Doyle this offseason in a coaching staff overhaul and, despite being a bit shallow in the pass-catching department, decided to fortify the trenches. Zay Flowers had decent efficiency last year despite a hobbled Lamar Jackson, and there are a confluence of reasons to believe that Flowers could continue to build off last year's breakout. Coming down the stretch (Weeks 14-18), Zay Flowers finished as the WR7 with 20.08 PPR points per game.

5. Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans

Pollard finished the 2025 season with more oomph than he started, but for the most part was caught in the crosshairs of an inefficient Titans offense. It was widely entertained that the Titans might go with Love at No. 4, but regardless, had the opportunity stripped from them by the Cardinals at No. 3. Now with Tennessee having taken WR Carnell Tate at No. 4, Cam Ward having another year under his belt, new weapons to throw to, AND Brian Daboll joining as the Titans' new OC, there is a lot of room to be optimistic about this offense and specifically Tony Pollard heading into 2026. He will be a favorite of The Snap heading into next season.

6. Rachaad White - RB, Washington Commanders

It was a relief for several fantasy players when the Cardinals took Love at 3 because several teams that were rumored to take him (Giants, Commanders primarily) are now stuck with what they've got. Which is a great thing for Skattebo and White/Jacory Croskey-Merritt specifically. We're calling our shot here: Rachaad White will lead the Commanders in carries in 2026. He's proven he can carry a workload with an RB4 overall finish in 2023. He's got pass-game chops, and brings a veteran leadership and reliability that frankly JCM lacks and the Commanders need. At the very least, we expect him to be a screaming value late in the draft.

7. DeVonta Smith - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

When Makai Lemon fell to the Eagles at 20, we all collectively had the same two thoughts: (1) Damn you Howie Roseman and (2) Bye-bye A.J. Brown. Makai Lemon is the perfect fit talent-wise and area-of-the-field-wise to keep things open for former Heisman winner DeVonta Smith, who has over the past five seasons developed a chemistry with Jalen Hurts. In the four games since 2022 where DeVonta has played but A.J. Brown hasn't, Smith has averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game and over eight targets. There's additional room for optimism in the form of positive regression in passing opportunities for the Eagles heading into 2026.

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What do you guys think? Anyone you agree or disagree with? Anyone I blatantly missed?