r/fantasyfootball

It's never too early to start thinking about draft season. Walker Kelly drops an early snapshot of season-long and bestball ADP trends as we get closer to OTAs firing up, and fantasy drafts right behind them.

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Omar Cooper Jr.'s rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

8/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (40%)

5/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (25%)

2/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (10%)

__________________________________

Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 2.18

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 5.33

Median → 8.81

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.37

Ceiling → 24.75 (outlier)

Omar Cooper is interesting. It feels like he's getting treated like a major afterthought in this 2026 class, even though he went in the first round of the draft (to the Jets is a bummer, I get it, but still).

His profile has plenty of mediocrity, including his best-season per-route metrics like YPRR and TPRR being nothing to write home about. But there's some stuff that stands out. He's proven to be EXTREMELY elusive, and generated missed tackles at a 96% percentile rate in his final season (among all WRs since 2014).

We also don't want to write off the fact that he played the toughest overall SRS across the entire FBS (essentially measuring composite program strength) with Indiana in 2025 - this has become something that adds the most signal when predicting NFL FPPG over the past couple years.

Overall, he's one of those class back-end-of-the-first WRs that seems to hit about 50% of the time, which checks out with the data (8/20 hit at least one top 24 finish across their careers). He also has legitimate WR1 upside with a quarter of the comps hitting a top-12 finish at some point too.

My *most realistic* upside comp? Brandon Aiyuk with a functional frontal lobe

Not a guy I'm writing off, especially at his current cost!

What do you guys think about Omar Cooper? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙

5 Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy/Sells 📊

These guys are being traded a ton in Dynasty the last 7 days.

➖Rashee Rice - 1126 Trades
➖Bhayshul Tuten -792 Trades
➖George Pickens - 697 Trades
➖Tee Higgins - 694 Trades
➖DK Metcalf - 683 Trades

Who are you Buying or Selling?

We break down our thoughts in the video attached.

Our favorite post-hype sleepers for 2026 Fantasy Football include:

0:27 - CJ Stroud
4:59 - Matthew Golden
8:30 - Tre' Harris
12:38 - Jalen Coker
17:18 - Michael Pittman

Who is your favorite post-hype sleeper for 2026 Fantasy Football?

The article attached shows my full Positional Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

There is a lot that goes into making these, and they are updated on a weekly basis. I do not align with the “market” or consensus on a lot of these rankings

Check it out 👊🏻

Skrip

Post your "Who Do I Keep?" questions here rather than individual posts.

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Ive never played fantasy football before. I have been wanting to play in my families league for a fee years but have not. I am starting to do my research though because if I am going to do it, I want to be darn good at it. I have ADHD (actually diagnosed by a doctor, not tiktok diagnosed) so I am locked in and hyper focused on doing the best thats in my control. What are good tips for the draft? Any tools like apps, sites, or anything to use for the draft or after the season starts? What type of players to draft first? Anything else I should know about fantasy to be on track to success? Thanks yall !!

Post your Dynasty and Best Ball questions here rather than individual posts.

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PLEASE INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING IN YOUR POSTS

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• All players under consideration
• Any other pertinent information.

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Mark Andrews is currently sitting at TE16 on FantasyPros consensus ADP.

That doesn't make sense to me. Few things:

1. Ravens just gave him a 3 year extension with strong guaranteed money. That front office is not dumb, and they certainly know more than me.
2. Ravens just shipped off Isaiah Likely (main competition at receiving TE) and Charlie Kolar. They backfilled Kolar with another blocking TE Smythe who had just a handful of catches last year. That clears out the target competition for Mark Andrews at TE, unless you're worried about their draft picks.
3. The draft picks - a 4th and 5th round TE. Both of these guys look like developmental TEs, with strong pass blocking grades but weaker receiving profiles. They do not profile as year 1 breakout demand targets type of guys.
4. Health variable change - both Andrews and Lamar will probably be healthier this year.
5. TD competition - just looking at that depth chart, who is catching TDs if not Mark Andrews? Why shouldn't he have another 10 with a healthy Lamar?
6. The film - watching 2025 film for Mark Andrews I see a slower version of his All Pro self, but I think the decline has been exaggerated. I'm still seeing reps where he creates distance on an LB/Safety, and he is still excellent at finding space and creating on the scramble drill (the latter being more important if Lamar gets healthy).

So what am I missing here?

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Jadarian Price's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

10/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (50%)

6/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (30%)

2/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (10%)

__________________________________

Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 0.88

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 5.41

Median → 11.99

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.49

Ceiling → 14.91

While Jadarian Price is far from my *favorite* prospects in the 2026 rookie class, there is no doubt he is one of the most *fascinating* to talk about.

Price's profile is truly unique, and it makes it difficult to evaluate. In the three years he played at Notre Dame (redshirted his first year) he RARELY touched the ball...but when he did, it was almost always explosive. His advanced rushing metrics indicate he can break anything off for a big gain and he is not entirely dependent on an effective OL - he can create for himself.

That's pretty much where the good stuff ends lol. When it comes to receiving involvement (obviously one of the most crucial aspects of being an impactful fantasy RB), Jadarian Price scores GENERATIONALLY poor. He averaged only 5 receptions per season, and his avg. depth of target across his career was literally negative. Both of these are in the bottom 10% of ALL runningbacks going back to 2014.

This skillset, along with being drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, puts Price in an intriguing spot. He'll probably receive a majority of the carries in SEA (at least until Charbonnet returns from injury) but how valuable even is that role from a fantasy football perspective? I'm personally proceeding with caution with a profile like this, and would temper upside expectations.

What do you guys think about Jadarian Price? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙

Website: Statsnap.io

Context for the tool: For years I built my fantasy projections in Excel. Every offseason I'd spend weeks setting up formulas, manually entering team stats, tweaking player share assumptions, and then watching the whole thing break when I changed one cell. It was genuinely fun but also kind of miserable — by the time I finished projecting all 32 teams I was exhausted and draft season was already halfway over. This year I decided to just build the thing properly.

Statsnap (statsnap.io) is essentially my Excel model turned into an actual web app. The idea is simple: instead of trusting someone else's rankings, you build your own from the ground up in about an hour. The flow is:

How it works:

1. Pick a team, set their offensive profile — expected plays, pass rate, completion %, yards per carry, projected TDs
2. Assign each player their shares — rush attempt share, target share, reception share, TD share
3. Your rankings and WORP scores generate automatically

That's it. What used to take me two weeks of spreadsheet hell now takes about an hour to get a full set of projections. And because you built them yourself you actually understand why Player A is ranked ahead of Player B — it's not a black box.

What's exciting:

A few things I'm especially happy with:

• **Tier system** — instead of arbitrary cutoffs, the tool finds the biggest natural WORP gaps in your own rankings and draws tier lines there. Your tiers reflect your model, not some generic consensus.
• **Trade analyzer** — uses a scarcity model based on your actual league size. In an 8-team league the top 16 RBs are all starters, so the math weights elite players very differently than in a 14-teamer. So as you go through early season trades, it can help. It takes a hybrid of final 2025 WORP to account for previous 2025 WORP and your projected 2026 WORP
• **Dashboard** — shows your biggest risers and fallers vs 2025 actuals, TD swings for all 32 teams, and tracks how many teams you've projected so far.

What I'd love for you:

1. Check it out and have fun
2. Your feedback with questions below.

Honest questions for anyone who checks it out:

• Does the projection editor feel intuitive or like too much work?
• Are the WORP tiers actually useful during draft prep?
• What's the one thing missing that would make you actually use this?

Still in early access and genuinely just looking for feedback. If you're the kind of person who used to have a projection spreadsheet and gave up because it was too painful to maintain — this was built for you.

Post your "Who Do I Keep?" questions here rather than individual posts.

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PLEASE INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING IN YOUR KEEPER POSTS

• League specific rules and details (league size, std/PPR, roster details, custom scoring, bonuses etc.)
• Specific keeper rules (number of players, rounds, what happens if you don't use all keeper slots, etc)
• All players under consideration
• Any other pertinent information.

---

PLEASE TRY TO ANSWER SEVERAL OTHER PEOPLE'S QUESTIONS WHEN POSTING YOUR OWN

When answering questions, please make sure to sort by NEW!

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Individual Keeper threads posted after this point will be deleted in order to keep the subreddit clean. Post here instead! If everyone sorts by new, your questions should be answered.

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The following users have helped the most people in this thread:

User	# Helped in thread
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"I Don't Watch Film" posted about career YPRR for rounds 1 and 2 wide receivers on Twitter. He shared that only BTJ broke the 1,000-yard receiving mark in an NFL season while below the zone YPRR threshold.

This got me thinking about the 2026 WR class. Using regular season data only: for R1/R2 WRs, my career zone YPRR threshold is 2.2 for a 1K-yard season.

It is not a hard rule. BTJ is the obvious recent exception (same as IDWF said). Other than him, Chase Claypool and Van Jefferson are the only other two who show up as under-the-2.2 line as guys who have at least cleared 600+ yards (R1/2). So 3 people over 600+ yards.

When you look across all drafted WRs, career Overall/Zone/Man YPRR does not create a clean universal threshold. This is due to Puka, ARSB, Tyreek, etc.

BUT, once you drop late WR outlier hits around pick 100+, it becomes a much stronger separator.

After dropping late-round outlier hits (pick 100+):

• WRs below 2.2 career zone YPRR hit 600+ yards at 8.0% (7/88), vs 36.6% (49/134) above it.
• WRs below 2.2 career Zone YPRR hit 1,000+ yards at just 4.3% (4/93), vs 20.6% (29/141) above it.

2026 WRs drafted inside the top 100 below the 2.2 career zone YPRR threshold:

• KC Concepcion
• De’Zhaun Stribling
• Denzel Boston
• Germie Bernard
• Antonio Williams
• Malachi Fields
• Caleb Douglas
• Zachariah Branch
• Ja’Kobi Lane
• Zavion Thomas
• Chris Bell

History says one of these guys probably beats the odds. Maybe two. But the chances are not good. Who do y'all have beating it?

These two later-round names are on the other side of the 2.2 threshold...by a lot:

• Elijah Sarratt
• Bryce Lance

I will peddle my Sarratt and Lance propaganda everywhere I can! Best sleeper picks imo.

https://preview.redd.it/w79ttmvm8d2h1.png?width=1589&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee5d23af894f56f98675d898e8a8170f3cb247ef