u/Fine-Try-8153

Rome Odunze could have had a great 2025 season.

He ranked WR10 in Air Yards and WR12 in Expected Fantasy Points per route run.

Unfortunately, he also had the 6th-lowest catch rate and the 9th-fewest catchable targets, while Luther Burden actually led all WRs in catchable target rate.

My initial thought was that Odunze was running a ton of deep routes while Burden received a lot of screen passes (which is true). But looking at the splits, that wasn't actually the problem:

(stats via fantasypointsdata)

Catch rate on out, in, slant-routes:

Player	TPRR	CR%
Rome Odunze	0,43	56%
Luther Burden	0,34	75%

Catch rate on targets when open:

Player	TPRR	CR%
Rome Odunze	0,26	65%
Luther Burden	0,44	93%

Catch rate on targets between the 10-19 yard range:

Player	TPRR	CR%
Rome Odunze	0,39	31%
Luther Burden	0,33	71%

1st Read Targets:

Player	TPRR	CR%
Rome Odunze	0,35	59%
Luther Burden	0,25	73%

No matter what you look at, Odunze’s catch rate remained low across the board and Burdens remained high.

Pressure rate or time to throw didn't make a difference either.

And Rome wasn't just a deep threat; his TPRR on slants, ins, and outs were fantastic, as well as his targets in the 10-19 yard range.

Injury definitely could have played a role here. From Week 6 on, his catchable target rate dropped and his average separation score took a hit as well.

However, even on targets where he created separation, his catchable target rate still dropped.

I’m not entirely sure what to make of all this just, but if Rome Odunze is healthy again (and there’s real concern that won’t be the case), he’s a prime positive regression candidate for this upcoming season.

We all know that better offenses are better for fantasy, especially for RBs. But I thought it’d be interesting to back that up with some data:

(Last 3 years, minimum 50% rush share)

 

• RBs on teams with > 10 wins: 17.3 PPG
• RBs on teams with < 7 wins: 14.4 PPG

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• RBs averaging > 20 PPG: 9.7 average team wins
• RBs averaging < 13 PPG: 4.5 average team wins

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• RB when leading: 6.92 PPG
• RB when trailing: 5.45 PPG
• RB when trailing in the 4th quarter: 1.97 PPG

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The RBs who still managed to produce for fantasy had:

• 80%+ Rush Attempt Share (Josh Jacobs)
• 70+ Targets (Achane, CMC, Kamara, Hall)

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Teams with an Over/Under > 10 this year:

• Los Angeles Rams
• Baltimore Ravens
• Buffalo Bills
• Seattle Seahawks
• Detroit Lions
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Kansas City Chiefs
• San Francisco 49ers
• New England Patriots

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Teams with an Over/Under < 7 this year:

• Tennessee Titans

• Atlanta Falcons

• Cleveland Browns

• Las Vegas Raiders

• New York Jets

• Arizona Cardinals

• Miami Dolphins

  &nbsp;

stats via fantasypointsdata

I really like Christian Watson. It feels like everyone likes Watson. And that’s a problem. We only share positive info and stats, reinforce each other's opinions, and might end up overrating him.

So I want to play devils advocate and share some negative thoughts.

Watson is a traditional deep threat. He had an aDot of 18 yards, that was the 3rd highest of all WR.

We know that a high aDot is negatively correlates with target share and catch rate.

And we saw it last year. He was only WR 27 in Target Share and had the lowest catch rate of all Packers WR.

On top of that, Love is not an elite deep passer. In the last two years he was QB 12 and 14 in comp.% on 20+ Yard Targets .

Thats fine, but i want an elite deep passer, if i take a player, who is solely a deep threat.

Watson did not play a full game with Kraft. Kraft got injured when Watson came back.

Kraft accounted for nearly 50% of the passing TDs when healthy.

Watson had nearly 50% of the TDs when he was healthy as well.

One of them will likely score significantly less TDs than last year.

And one last team stat: the packers were bottom 10 in pass attempts with a negative pass rate over expectation two years in a row. The volume is just not there.

Again this is not my opinion in Watson. Just a few negatives worth mentioning.

Stats via fantasypointsdata

Zain Dhanani posted an interesting article here about how target depth plays a role in fantasy. So i thought it would be interesting to look at the YPRR and TPRR for specific short & deep routes.

The results are very similar (as expected):

• Slant/Out/Dig-Route = 0,23 TPRR, 1,85 YPRR
• Corner/Post/Go = 0,14 TPRR, 1,75 YPRR

In general, shorter routes are "better" than deep routes

Some players with the highest short Route Share:

3. Jalen Coker

4. Romeo Doubs

5. Ladd McConkey

6. Nico Collins

I didn't expect Collins and Doubs to be on the list. Big fan of McConkey, too.

Some players with the highest deep Route Share:

6. Tee Higgins

7. Quentin Johnston

8. Brian Thomas

9. Jameson Williams

Zain also had Brian Thomas in his article. Think thats another good sign for Parker Washington.
And i think it makes sense to be higher on Laporta than Jamo.

Some other interesting Names:

Waddle ran the 3rd most out routes, but also the 2nd most post routes

Davante Adams ran the 4th most dig routes, but also the 6th most post routes

George Pickens ran the 12th most deep routes, but also the most total slants

The route stats are from FantasyPointsData

If we normalise some important WR efficiency stats (Air Yard %, TGT %, TPRR, YPRR, 1DRR, 1Read%) and combine them to a single score, JSN was the most efficient WR of the last 5 Years.

Second was Tyreek in 2023.

Thats just impossible for JSN to repeat

Stats @fantasypointsdata

Most TPRR on 3rd and 4th Downs:

Amon-Ra St. Brown → 0.36

Puka Nacua → 0.35

Josh Downs → 0.29

Courtland Sutton → 0.28

Adonai Mitchell → 0.28

Josh Downs Breakout incoming

Stats via @fantasypointsdata

An interesting stat I stumbled upon

Average QB Accuracy in the NFL Last year

Comp. % over Expectation: 2.47%

Adj. Comp.%: 76.3%

QB Accuracy in winds over 15 mph

Comp. % over Expectation: -2.7%

Adj. Comp.%: 73.3%

I'm not sure if I would adjust my lineup based on this, but it's definitely something to keep in the back of your mind.

via @FantasyPtsData