I backtested Navi's Virgin Wick Theory model ,here are the results
I recently came across a new YouTuber in the ICT community by the name of Navi, who is the creator of the Virgin Wick Theory trading strategy. It's essentially a break and retest strategy using hourly points of interest, and then using CISD or an iFVG as an entry from a premium or discount zone. From the strategy breakdown video that I watched, he seemed to have pretty solid results, so I went ahead and backtested for myself and the results are pretty solid icl.
I backtested across 100 trades on Gold and NQ from January through to April, across all three sessions and using both CISD and iFVG as my entries. I targeted a fixed 1.5R, and here are the results:
Overall:
- 56% win rate
- 1.85R average winner
- 0.66R expectancy per trade
Session split:
- London: ~61% WR
- NY: ~53% WR
- Asian: ~54% WR
The Numbers line up pretty closely with what he showed in his video, which is honestly more than I can say for most strategies people promote. Most infulencers startegies fall apart the second you backtest them on a real sample with consistent rules.
A few things to consider :
100 trades is a pretty small sample size to make a solid conclusion on whether the strategy is profitable or not, but so far so good. I'm still going to try and backtest across 500 trades before I can validate that the London edge is actually true.
I'm curious if anyone else here has tested a Cisd/iFVG model independently or has session data where London has a clear edge?