Accumulation MANIPULATION Distribution AMD
Unexpected news and price pumped after an accumulation during Asia and London and then selloff after. classic AMD, accumulation, manipulation, distribution.
u/ThomasAnderson_23 — 18 hours ago
r/InnerCircleTraders
Asking Advice to pass prop firms is 1:1 or >=1:2 is most suitable
I have seen few videos claiming low rr (including negative )is better to win and stay in prop firm game than 1:2 or higher (i am not talking about live fund's ) what is your opinion about this which one is you sujjest for newbies
u/k_boys — 22 hours ago
guys help me understand this
thought ob tested but tested again today im a applying ob wrong? or is there smthing i didnt know? When i backtested once order block tested it usually stopped working was my backtest not enough? (Bad english)
u/Wild_Diamond8859 — 23 hours ago
Fed minutes at 2pm ET, do you trade the hawkish dissent, or fade it because the data already moved past it?
quick setup: the July FOMC minutes drop at 2pm ET. that meeting held rates at 3.50-3.75% but with an unusually visible 9-3 split, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all wanted a 25bp hike. so the obvious thing to mine the minutes for is how far that hawkish view spread into the voting majority. if more officials were leaning hike than the three formal dissents suggest, that reads hawkish.
but here's the catch, and it's the actual trade: the minutes are backward-looking, and a lot has happened since July 29. July payrolls came in negative, inflation gauges softened, and retail sales unexpectedly dropped. all of that cut against the hawks, the market's now pricing 67-70% for a September hold. so the minutes capture a debate that the data has arguably already overtaken.
the usual pattern with stale minutes is a quick repricing on the initial read, then a fade once everyone remembers the info is three weeks old. and there's a bigger event right behind it Jackson Hole, where Warsh speaks. with Warsh having killed forward guidance, every meeting's basically live, which cuts both ways: it makes the minutes matter more (no guidance elsewhere) but also makes them more likely to be leapfrogged by the next data point.
what i'd watch immediately: the 2-year yield. it's the cleanest tell for whether traders read it hawkish or dovish.
genuinely curious how the room's playing it:
- do you trade the initial minutes reaction, or sit out knowing stale minutes tend to fade?
- if the minutes read hawkish but the data since says hold, which wins in your positioning?
- is anyone even trading this, or is Jackson Hole the real event and today's just noise?
u/holaprimeglobal — 1 day ago
Discretional Traders, do you ever get imposter syndrome?
I've been trading discretional for some time now, and I often find myself feeling uncertain? Uncertain about my discretion and my ability to trade profitably. My winrate certainly isn't the best, but my wins to loses are huge. Recently I've been on a losing streak and I always have doubts about trading, always questioning if my wins were luck or not. Just thinking too much lmao. I don't journal or do anything serious, maybe I should huh?
I'm just wondering how you discretional traders deal with this?
u/Repulsive-Ladder-522 — 1 day ago
Watch A Reputable Quant Dismantle Discretionary Trading
Context
Roman Paolucci from Quantguild destroys intuitive discretionary trading using clips from one of the most popular figures in the space.
This is not exclusive to TJR, many other gurus rely on the same logical fallacies Roman pointed out in the video.
Volatility
>Most hedge funds do not beat the S&P 500.
Hedge funds have less return volatility, this is why they are used. No high net worth individual wants to lose >20% of their networth during market crashes, hedge fund risk structures are designed to mitigate this while producing positive returns over time.
To investors with dozens to hundreds of millions of USD to invest, a lower percentage return after costs with less volatility and much smaller drawdowns than the S&P 500 is a better deal because high net worth investors prioritise wealth preservation over growth.
Many retail traders say "most hedgefunds do not beat the s&p 500's % returns" but context regarding their impressive return efficiency is often omitted.
Statistics
>Solo quants rarely make millions, but I can mame multiple solo discretionary traders that do. (Anecdote fallacy).
Variance. Discretionary traders have a higher same and take more cumulative risk increasing the extremeness of the low tail (e.g., -99%) and high tail outcomes (e.g., 10000%+).
With enough iterations (millions), extreme positive-outcome outliers are guaranteed (just like in a standard bell-curve distribution), and the top 0.01% out of millions of tries are what are shown publicly. Over 85% of traders lose money trading derivatives.
For the skeptics, focus on the message, not the messenger. And most importantly do your own due diligence!
- Thank you!
u/STS-Trader — 2 days ago
Does anyone have GUARDEER smc series? Not the YouTube uploaded one. Want to connect with people who followed him. Will be grateful if I get any sort of help. I have started watching his videos. It looks good to me, he explains things quite well. I don't know what is kept next....
Same as above. Plz help..I wanna grow.
u/Bitter-Amoeba-5920 — 1 day ago
Gold Price action today was not it, who knows how many blew their accounts
Worst price action of the month, but luckily I closed Green.
Took a loss on the first trade.
The second trade at 9:30 was extremely volatile, price moved super fast and got within a few points of TP before reversing. Luckily I took partials.
I don’t normally take a third trade, but price never hit TP and I saw a good setup, so I ended up taking it.
u/EmperorH_007 — 2 days ago
Price came down exactly as expected. No more to say here. Good luck.
Well, that aged well. Now we're loading up for the move up.
u/Lilmarketwizard — 1 day ago
▲ 13 r/InnerCircleTraders
is there any way to enter super aggressive trends with no entry
like here on silver price pushed down without retracing into any FVG, this is the 15 min with also no entry on any of the lowers, i knew looking at the higher time frames and reading bias price would dump like this, but I got no entry, is there just nothing i could do?
u/TallExchange9540 — 3 days ago
Creating your own strategy
I see a lot of people say to create your own strategy now obviously a lot of people will have done this devised from ict concepts. If I was wanting to build my own strategy how do I go about doing that and refining it. Is it just about purely watching price and trying to identify common patterns as to where price reacts from etc
u/Ok_Country_9238 — 2 days ago
▲ 12 r/InnerCircleTraders
Many Traders Blow Their Accounts Today
Today’s NY am session price action wasn't "messy", it was simply building the necessary liquidity for the next move. (This is Nasdaq by the way)
You must learn to not chase the price.
You must wait the model’s specific parameters to align at the right time and place then you enter.
u/Practical-Level-6656 — 3 days ago
What's the best Futures prop to use in Pakistan
I wanted to use Lucid and Tradiefy in Pakistan but those are banned. So I recently heard about the5ers so I created an account on that. But its platform black arrow didn't let me login.
Error "Your connection is not Safe"
I reached out to support of the5ers they said to go to Black arrow support.
At last it's been around 20 hours and still my issue isn't fixed. Such a bad experience with them.
Today I am planning to take a refund and go for another prop. Kindly help me choose a good prop that allows traders from Pakistan.
u/Ok_Signal_1924 — 2 days ago
▲ 17 r/InnerCircleTraders
6 years ICT veteran here
6 years into ICT, and i have somehow managed to equip my brain to handle swing trades, i did start of a 15 minute tf junkie haha but quickly figured that testing ICT with spot positions will be way healthier for my risk management and mental clarity in the long run,
ICT is more of a thought less process and more of a execution skill,
happy trading.
u/NotRocky19 — 2 days ago
Penny drop moment
Was there a moment when learning to trade that the penny dropped for you guys or was it a gradual thing and what are the best ways to get to that point I’ve passed a few evals but never got a payout but just lack serious confidence in my system because I feel like In live markets I don’t trade the same as I do backtesting
u/Ok_Country_9238 — 2 days ago
About the idea of “consequence encroachment”
Hello ppl, so I finished 2022 beforehand and keep learning from ICT’s YouTube, I was trying to consume some core series including “Forex Market Maker Prime”,
2016 month1 - month 4.
And I the meantime I keep following up the new videos that he uploaded, but I found that there are lots of term that I haven’t heard from 2022, since the 2022 is the simplified version, I wonder where can I find the terms that he hasn’t mentioned but has used recent new videos?
I just want to find out the definition of every new terms such as “consequence encouragement”, ” suspension block”, “breaker block” etc…
He has been using Fib to grade and analyse recently, I wonder where is exact series that he has mentioned those terms and taught the logic behind those?
(And he also mention he taught Order Block, but where can I find it?)
I do note and screen shot basically every episode that he taught, and as a non native English speaker, I sometimes need to replay a same sentence for a few times to catch up what he meant, so maybe I’ll spend 40-60min to his 20 min video if there are lots of info…
It is a pain finishing up all the videos while consuming the newest videos, would you recommend me to watch 2016 mentorship month 1 to month 4 to get a solid definition of those terms? Or the Forex Market Maker Prime?
I’m living in Japan and trading MNQ for now, but since I finish my work quite late (get home after 9:00 NY)
It’s pretty hard for me to catch up the macro times, so I’m also considering to do both Forex and indices.
What would you recommend me to watch first?
Thanks a lot! Sorry for quite a long texts.
u/Real-Transition-5626 — 3 days ago
NDX100 - You tell me, where are we heading?
I'm not going to dance around it. The answer is straightforward: we're heading lower.
But hold on—I'm not telling you to short right here, right now. That's rookie behavior. Price always gives you one last shakeout to catch the impatient ones. If you see a green candle and jump in, this game isn't for you.
Most people are staring at the upside because that's what they want to see. I'm looking at what price still owes us from behind. That area down below has to get visited. It's not a gut feeling—it's knowing the market doesn't hand out obvious directions for free. The rally you're watching right now is bait.
When price finally turns and everyone starts scratching their heads, I'll already be waiting down there. I don't care about analysts, news, or what anyone else thinks. Price goes where it has to go, and this time, that destination is a few handles lower.
It's not a question of "if"—it's a question of "when." If you think we're going straight to new highs without looking back, you lack street smarts. I've seen this movie too many times.
My stance: bearish. With patience, the market will prove us right.
u/Lilmarketwizard — 3 days ago
Fundamental analysis
How important is fundamental analysis in the sense of day trading forex for example like I personally avoid red folder news days but should fundamental analysis be having an input on my bias for the day
u/Ok_Country_9238 — 3 days ago