A scary trend I found in the 8-year JoSAA data (Don't trust the 2025 Cutoffs blindly)
I’ve spent the last 48 hours obsessively digging through the JoSAA and CSAB archives from 2017 to 2025. I was trying to figure out why some of my friends with great ranks ended up in lower-tier colleges last year while others "lucked out."
I found something that everyone filling their choices right now needs to hear: The "Round 6 Jump" is becoming a myth.
We’ve all been told, "Fill your dream colleges even if you're 5k ranks away, they’ll slide in the later rounds." But looking at the data for mid-tier NITs (like Hamirpur, Silchar, Durgapur) in CSE and ECE, the rank movement has actually started to stagnate or even "tighten" in the last two years.
Why? Because everyone is using the same 3-4 YouTube videos to make their lists. When 50,000 students use the exact same "Top 10" preference order, the vacancy at the top dries up instantly.
Here is the lesson: If your list is built only on "Last Year's Closing Rank," you are basically gambling. You need to look at Stability Trends. I’ve started categorizing colleges into two groups:
- The Safe Anchors: Colleges where the rank movement is predictable and steady.
- The High-Risk Gambles: Colleges where the rank fluctuates wildly year-by-year (mostly newer IIITs).
I’ve mapped out about 35-40 colleges that are showing the most "stability" for specific rank brackets this year. I don't want to see people from this sub getting "No Seat Allocated" in Round 6 because they followed a generic YouTube list.
If you’re feeling unsure about whether your current preference order is "Safe" or a "Gamble," drop your rank/category below or reach out. I’m happy to look at the data trends I’ve compiled and help you figure out which colleges are actually realistic for you.
Let's beat the algorithm this year.