u/Electronic-Pea-8614

Cannes Letterbox Notation Recap Day 6

(I calculated each average myself for each films since Letterboxd for films that are not enough seen inflates/deflates the average or does not provide an average at all)

In Competition

- The Unknown: 358 ratings / Average of 2,78/5

- Fjord: 405 ratings / Average of 3,74/5 (first Mungiu movie at the oscars?)

Out of Competition

- Her Private Hell: 330 ratings / Average of 1,77/5 (wow that's so bad 😂)

Midnight Screenings

Cannes Premiere

- Aquí: 53 ratings / Average of 2,99/5

Special Screenings

- Vesna: 37 ratings / Average of 3,3/5

- Women on Trial: 27 ratings / Average of 3,09/5

Un Certain Regard

- Everytime: 155 ratings / Average of 3,63/5

- Strawberries: 83 ratings / Average of 3,11/5

Directors’ Fortnight

- Once Upon a Time in Harlem (it was previously shown at Sundance): 370 ratings / Average of 4,11/5

- La Perra: 143 ratings / Average of 2,94/5

- Viva Carmen: 108 ratings / Average of 3,44/5 (I was expecting something higher; I think it's bye-bye Animated Feature prospect at the Oscars.)

Cannes Critics' Week

- Tin Castle: 62 ratings / Average of 3,75/5

Acid

- Living Twice, Dying Thrice: 10 ratings / Average of 2,95/5

I also want to share that an AwardsWorthy member (Luc) created a Google Sheet where he records all the Cannes critic grids:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GXzJy8ZHfLFi92xbHT-bM6KoAbLZgMGPhZdaGMXEvdM/edit?gid=0#gid

Cannes Letterboxd Notation Recap Day 5

(I calculated each average myself for each films since Letterboxd for films that are not enough seen inflates/deflates the average or does not provide an average at all)

In Competition

- Moulin: 238 ratings / Average of 3,16/5

- Another Day: 282 ratings / Average of 3,26/5

- Hope: 417 ratings / Average of 3,3/5 (rating curve is crazy)

Out of Competition

Midnight Screenings

- Jim Queen: 255 ratings / Average of 4,06/5

Cannes Premiere

- When the Night Falls: 64 ratings / Average of 2,89/5

Special Screenings

- Avedon: 30 ratings / Average of 3,43/5

Un Certain Regard

- All the Lovers in the Night: 115 ratings / Average of 3,3/5

- I’ll Be Gone in June: 118 ratings / Average of 3,19/5

Directors’ Fortnight

- Dora: 110 ratings / Average of 2,85/5

- Too Many Beasts: 174 ratings / Average of 3,32/5

Cannes Critics' Week

- The Station: 50 ratings / Average of 3,58/5

Acid

- Rewind Barcelona: 62 ratings / Average of 3,43/5

I also want to share that an AwardsWorthy member (Luc) created a Google Sheet where he records all the Cannes critic grids:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GXzJy8ZHfLFi92xbHT-bM6KoAbLZgMGPhZdaGMXEvdM/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Cannes Letterbox Notation Recap Day 3

(I calculated each average myself for each films since Letterboxd for films that are not enough seen inflates/deflates the average or does not provide an average at all)

In Competition

- All of a Sudden: 355 ratings / Average of 3,79/5 (second Oscar contender in competition, is that enough?)

- Gentle Monster: 185 ratings / Average of 2,89/5

Out of Competition

- Karma: 86 ratings / Average of 3,72/5

Midnight Screenings

- Colony: (It's finishing too late, I'll put it in tomorrow's recap)

Cannes Premiere

- Propeller One-Way Night Coach: 102 ratings / Average of 3,04/5

- Think Good: 54 ratings / Average of 3,36/5

Special Screenings

- Cantona: 29 ratings / Average of 3,4/5

- John Lennon: The Last Interview: 54 ratings / Average of 1,27/5 (well done Soderbergh, your film with AI has managed to get the worst average rating at the festival, and it's going to be hard to beat.)

Un Certain Regard

- Congo Boy: 115 ratings / Average of 3,69/5

- Club Kid: 205 ratings / Average of 4,28/5 (very good ratings, could it be an Oscar contender?)

Directors’ Fortnight

- Atonement: 128 ratings / Average of 3,4/5

- The Diary of a Chambermaid: 147 ratings / Average of 3,78/5

Cannes Critics' Week

- A Girl Unknown: 67 ratings / Average of 3,72/5

- Stonewall (The Blow): 35 ratings / Average of 2,96/5

Acid

I also want to share that an AwardsWorthy member (Luc) created a Google Sheet where he records all the Cannes critic grids:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GXzJy8ZHfLFi92xbHT-bM6KoAbLZgMGPhZdaGMXEvdM/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Cannes Letterbox Notation Recap Day 2

(I calculated each average myself for each films since Letterboxd for films that are not enough seen inflates the average or does not provide an average at all)

In Competition

- Fatherland: 396 ratings / Average of 3,39/5 (The reviews of the critics are better (93 Metacritic), but it still seems to have a little less passion than Ida or Cold War. It's the first oscar contender in competition so far)

- Parallel Tales (was playing simultaneously in cinemas in France): 1153 ratings / Average of 2,82/5 (I thought it was nothing from the beginning, even before seeing the trailer; I was right.)

Out of Competition

Midnight Screenings

- Species: 271 ratings / Average of 2,84/5 (Go check out the rating curve on Letterbox; people are divided on it.)

Cannes Premiere

- Maria Magdalena: 64 ratings / Average of 3,44/5 

Special Screenings

- Tangles: 87 ratings / Average of 4,17/5 (It seems that's the first real contender at Cannes for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.)

- Molière, Cyrano and the Young King: 22 ratings / Average of 2,5/5 

Un Certain Regard

- Words Of Love: 137 ratings / Average of 3,64/5 

- The Meltdown: 137 ratings / Average of 3,3/5 

Directors’ Fortnight

- We Are Aliens: 221 ratings / Average of 3,62/5 

- Gabin: 161 ratings / Average of 3,52/5 

- Thanks for Coming: 83 ratings / Average of 3,55/5 

Cannes Critics' Week

- Alive: 85 ratings / Average of 3,08/5 

Acid

- A Secret Heart: 5 ratings / Average of 4,4/5 

- Into the Jaws of the Ogre: 41 ratings / Average of 3,48/5 

- Detention: 11 ratings / Average of 2,41/5 

- Blaise: 37 ratings / Average of 3,39/5 

I also want to share that an AwardsWorthy member (Luc) created a Google Sheet where he records all the Cannes critic grids:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GXzJy8ZHfLFi92xbHT-bM6KoAbLZgMGPhZdaGMXEvdM/edit?gid=0#gid

1. Dune 3: Personally I have a good feeling about this film and the awards race (without thinking it's going to be The Return of the King like some people do). Here it's Linus Sandgren (1 win) handling the cinematography, and importantly it's not the same as the 2 previous Dunes since that was Greig Fraser doing the photography — so there's a change of cinematographer which will be an advantage giving him more chances of being nominated. Personally Linus Sandgren is my favorite active cinematographer and for a while now in terms of photography he's been delivering masterclass work (Babylon, Saltburn) or very good work (No Time to Die, First Man) without getting nominated. Moreover for Dune 3 we now have the trailer and oh my God the cinematography is stunning, I have no words, and on top of that in IMAX with the format and quality it's going to be incredible.
2. Fatherland: Lukasz Zal (2 nominations) is working on it, the film is in black and white, the film just needs to win a prize at Cannes and it's very likely nominated even if the film isn't in Best Picture. (We're getting reactions during the day)
3. Digger: I saw the trailer that leaked for 30 minutes a few days ago, it's fairly short (40 seconds and you see 30 seconds of footage) so you don't see a lot of things but the cinematography looks good. Emmanuel Lubezki (8 nominations for 3 wins (consecutively by the way: 2014, 2015, 2016)) is working on it.
4. Jack of Spades: Bruno Delbonnel (6 nominations) is working on it, he's a very good cinematographer and the film is described as a "Gothic Mystery" — it's pure bait for cinematography, it will very likely at minimum be in the conversation even if the film isn't nominated in Best Picture (5 of the 6 films for which Delbonnel was nominated were not nominated in Best Picture).
5. The Odyssey: Hoyte van Hoytema (2 nominations for 1 win) is working on it. Personally I don't really like the cinematography in the trailers so far even though it remains to be seen how it looks in IMAX. I have some serious doubts about the film in general and I'm not that confident about it. Nevertheless even with my doubts it's the first film shot entirely in IMAX, which is something that will appeal to the branch.
6. Werwulf: Jarin Blaschke (2 nominations) is working on it, the cinematography will probably be very good, it's a strong contender.
7. Project Hail Mary: Greig Fraser (3 nominations for 1 win) worked on it. The film is out, people really liked the cinematography but personally I'm not sure the film will be as strong in the awards race as everyone thinks due to its early-year release, and I also saw the film (in IMAX Laser 1:90 I should note) and I'll admit I wasn't impressed by the cinematography which I found nice but nothing more. I'm going to trust my instinct that I have good taste and that it will be the same for members of the branch.
8. Hope: In competition at Cannes. Same cinematographer as Parasite. We already have a clip and a few images that have come out, the cinematography looks good. Nevertheless we remain cautious — Korean films and the Oscars outside of Parasite...
9. Moulin: In competition at Cannes. The cinematographer's past work seems to be good (he won the ASC Spotlight Award twice).
10. Cry to Heaven: A period film, Benjamin Kracun who did the cinematography for The Substance is working on it. Personally, given that Tom Ford's 2 previous films only managed to get 1 Oscar nomination each despite being in the race for other categories and having shown generally more strength at the Golden Globes, BAFTA and Critics Choice, I'm not as confident as everyone else on this film and I think it first has more chances in other categories before this one. Also it might possibly come out in 2027.
11. Josephine: Although the film was very well received during its Sundance run, the unknown here is distributor Sumerian Pictures which is still new but seems to want to use this film as a springboard to break into the awards race (I'm confident personally). But even if the film manages to get nominated for Best Picture, despite the fairly good reviews for the cinematography, this isn't the category where it has the most chances.
12. Saturn Return: New film from the duo Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, it will come out on Netflix. Andrew Droz Palermo who did the cinematography for The Green Knight is working on it.
13. Coward: In competition at Cannes. The director's 2 previous films don't make me think it will be nominated here but it remains a war film so you never know.
14. The Uprising: A period/war film by Paul Greengrass.
15. Wuthering Eights: Already released, despite the box office success the reviews aren't great (really didn't like it personally), it's very unlikely we'll be talking about it at the end of the year for the awards race but if that's the case one must note the very beautiful cinematography by Linus Sandgren (1 win) who will nevertheless have much better chances of being nominated for Dune 3.
16. Paper Tiger: Shot on 35mm film, the first photos are nice, it remains a James Gray film — and him and the Oscars don't really go together.
17. Animals: This new Ben Affleck film doesn't seem to be an Oscar contender at first glance. Robert Elswit (2 nominations for 1 win) is working on it but his recent films haven't been great, though in terms of TV he distinguished himself by doing the cinematography for Ripley recently.
18. Queen at Sea: Adolpho Veloso (1 nomination) is working on it, the film already screened at the Berlin festival, according to reactions the cinematography seems pleasant but probably not enough to be nominated.
19. The Unknown: Film in competition at Cannes, Harari's previous film had good cinematography, I'm waiting to get a trailer or reactions before saying it has a chance in this category.
20. The Birthday Party: In competition at Cannes. Paul Guilhaume (1 nomination) is working on it.
21. The Adventures of Cliff Booth: Erik Messerschmidt (1 win (though that was in 2021, which doesn't mean much)) is working on it. I don't think this sequel to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has a real shot at the Oscars, but even if it does we already have a trailer and the cinematography is very dark — you can barely see anything — so I don't think it will be nominated in this category.
22. A Long Winter: New film by Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers).
23. Being Heumann: The film seems to be a potential Oscar contender. Jamie Ramsay who did the cinematography for Living and All of Us Strangers is working on it.
24. Deep Cuts: Film by Sean Durkin (Iron Claw). The cinematographer's past work seems to be good (he won the ASC Spotlight Award twice — same cinematographer as Moulin above).
25. The Social Reckoning: For this "sequel" to The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth (2 nominations) who did the photography for Social Network returns to the helm. Making a sequel to a film like The Social Network can be quite risky so we're fairly uncertain about its Oscar chances, and very clearly cinematography is not the first priority — especially since it's not David Fincher directing but Aaron Sorkin who wrote the screenplay for Social Network and who, although he's directed films that did rather well with the Academy, these were not visually impressive films, so I'm not very confident in this category.
26. Wild Horse Nine: The cinematography looks nice without being spectacular, Martin McDonagh's previous films weren't nominated for Best Cinematography despite being very well received by the Academy, so I think it at least needs to be in the top 3 for Best Picture to have a chance of being nominated (since Three Billboards which had won Best Film at the BAFTAs was nominated there for cinematography). I'm not as confident as everyone else on the film personally.
27. Disclosure Day: I know it's a Spielberg film but based on the trailers I don't think it's an Oscar contender and especially I don't think it's a contender in this category. Janusz Kaminski (7 nominations for 2 wins), Spielberg's regular cinematographer, is working on it.
28. Behemoth: Not sure it comes out in 2026, and it probably has more chances in other categories.
29. Fleur: The cinematographer of Nickel Boys is working on it.
30. Switzerland: I'm listing this here because Robbie Ryan (2 nominations) is working on it.
31. High End: I'm listing this here because Robbie Ryan (2 nominations) is working on it.
32. Harmonia: Film by Guy Nativ, the cinematographer of Sound of Falling is working on it.
33. The Lost Children of Tuam: The cinematographer of The Quiet Girl is working on it.
34. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma: Despite the good reactions, the film is not in competition but only in Un Certain Regard — I think it has no chance, it's not to the Academy's taste.
35. Wildwood: So why would I have put an animated film on my list for Best Cinematography? Simply because Caleb Deschanel (6 nominations) is working on it, and the last time he worked on a film (in live action) he was nominated in 2019 for a foreign film that nobody was talking about and nobody had even considered him in their predictions (look at The Oscar Expert's reaction when he gets nominated and they're shocked by the nomination: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1Rtzr5gwKo&t=378s). So if he managed to get nominated for a foreign film that nobody was expecting, if there's one person who can get an animated film nominated it's him.
36. Wicker: It screened at the Sundance festival, the cinematography doesn't seem to have been noticed unlike the makeup and costumes — I'm still putting it on the list just in case because Lol Crawley (1 win) is working on it.
37. Her Private Hell: The fact that it's not in competition at Cannes but out of competition kills its chances for me. There might be visually some interesting neon lighting work but I don't think so.
38. The Beloved: Film in competition at Cannes, I don't think it has chances in this category.
39. Minotaur: In competition at Cannes, I don't think the film has a chance in this category.
40. The Statement: Film directed and written by Tom McCarthy (3 Oscar nominations including 1 win and one of his films won Best Picture). Stuart Dryburgh (1 nomination) is working on it but he doesn't seem to have done much of note outside the film for which he was nominated. May come out in 2027.
41. Violette: New film by Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Amelie), it's his first theatrical film in 13 years (we ignore his BigBug which is, from what I've heard, is very bad, released on Netflix in 2022), here he adapts a very highly rated book on Goodreads (4.27). The film is not at Cannes but that's not worrying since it comes out in December in France which suggests it might perhaps appear at the Venice Film Festival, and if the film is very good, is in competition and wins a major prize it could potentially emerge in the awards race — but that's far too many "what if" for me to place it higher in my predictions, especially since his 2 Oscar-nominated films both received a cinematography nomination but he was working at the time with cinematographer Bruno Delbonnel, whereas on this film it's an unknown doing the photography.
42. Out of This World: Not at Cannes because the film is tangled up in a 4-hour edit (it has 800 hours of rushes), to be seen whether it makes it to another festival this year or waits for Cannes 2027. In any case I can't conceive of an Albert Serra film at the Oscars.
43. Fjord: In competition at Cannes, I don't think the film has a chance in this category.
44. Pressure: Well I think this film is nothing in terms of the awards race, shoutout to TheAwardsGarage who is predicting this for Best Picture 😂. Jamie Ramsay who did the cinematography for Living and All of Us Strangers is working on it.
45. In the Hand of Dante: This seems to be beautiful black and white cinematography, the typical thing the branch loves, BUT the film screened at Venice in 2025 and the reactions were bad — I think there is a possibility it won't even get a release.
46. The Chaperones: A24 film produced by Brad Pitt, Robert Pattinson and also Jeremy Kleiner & Dede Gardner (who produced 8 films nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture, 2 of which won). Nevertheless there are no elements telling me it has chances in this category for now.

Overall the Top 11 is solid, outside of that it's more complicated.

1. Dune 3 : Personnellement j'ai un bon pressentiment avec le film et la course aux récompenses (sans penser que c'est Le Retour du Roi pour autant comme certains), ici c'est Linus Sandgren (1 victoire) qui s'occupe de la photographie ET IMPORTANT ce n'est pas le même que pour les 2 précédents Dune puisque c'était Greig Fraser qui faisait la photo, il y a donc un changement de directeur photo ce qui sera un avantage qui lui donnera plus de chances d'être nommé. Personnellement Linus Sandgren est mon directeur photo favori en activité et ça fait quelque temps que niveau photographie il enchaîne un travail masterclass (Babylon, Saltburn) ou très bon (No Time to Die, First Man) sans se faire nommer. De plus pour Dune 3 on a maintenant le trailer et oh mon Dieu la photographie est magnifique, j'ai pas les mots, alors en plus en salle IMAX avec le format et la qualité ca va être incroyable.
2. Fatherland : Lukasz Zal (2 nominations) travaille dessus, le film est en noir et blanc, le film a juste besoin de gagner un prix à Cannes et c'est très probablement nommé même si le film n'est pas en Best Picture. (On a les retours dans la journée)
3. Digger : J'ai vu le trailer qui a leak pendant 30 minutes il y a quelques jours, il est assez court (40 secondes et on voit 30 secondes d'images) donc on ne voit pas énormément de choses mais la photographie a l'air d'être bien. Emmanuel Lubezki (8 nominations pour 3 victoires (d'affilée d'ailleurs 2014, 2015, 2016)) travaille dessus.
4. Jack of Spades : Bruno Delbonnel (6 nominations) travaille dessus, c'est un très bon directeur photo et le film est décrit comme un "Mystère Gothique", c'est du pur bait pour la photographie, ce sera très probablement a minima dans les discussions même si le film n'est pas nommé en Best Picture (5 des 6 films pour lesquels Delbonnel a été nommé n'étaient pas nommés en Best Picture).
5. The Odyssey : Hoyte van Hoytema (2 nominations pour 1 victoire) travaille dessus. Perso j'aime pas trop la photographie dans les trailers pour le moment même si à voir comment ca rend en IMAX, j'ai quand même de gros doutes sur le film en général et je ne suis pas si confiant dessus. Néanmoins même avec mes doutes c'est le premier film tourné entièrement en IMAX, c'est quelque chose qui va plaire à la branche.
6. Werwulf : Jarin Blaschke (2 nominations) travaille dessus, la photographie va probablement être très bien, c'est un bon contender.
7. Project Hail Mary : Greig Fraser (3 nominations pour 1 victoire) a travaillé dessus. Le film est sorti, les gens ont beaucoup aimé la photographie mais perso je ne suis pas sûr que le film sera aussi fort dans la course aux récompenses que ce que tout le monde pense à cause de sa sortie en début d'année, et j'ai vu le film aussi (en IMAX Laser 1:90 je précise) et j'avoue que j'ai pas été impressionné par la photographie que je trouve pas mal sans plus, je vais donc faire confiance à mon instinct que j'ai bon goût et que ce sera la même pour les membres de la branche.
8. Hope : En compétition à Cannes. Même directeur de la photographie que Parasite. On a déjà un clip et quelques images qui sont sorties, la photographie a l'air plutôt bien. Néanmoins on reste méfiant, les films coréens et les Oscars en dehors de Parasite...
9. Moulin : En compétition à Cannes. Le travail passé du directeur photo semble être bon (il a gagné 2 fois l'ASC Spotlight Award).
10. Cry to Heaven : Film d'époque, Benjamin Kracun qui a fait la photographie de The Substance travaille dessus. Personnellement, vu que les 2 précédents films de Tom Ford n'ont réussi à avoir chacun qu'1 nomination aux Oscars malgré avoir été dans la course pour d'autres catégories en ayant montré globalement plus de force aux Golden Globes, BAFTA et Critics Choice, je ne suis pas aussi confiant que tout le monde sur ce film et je pense qu'il a d'abord plus de chances dans d'autres catégories avant celle-ci. Aussi il pourrait peut-être sortir en 2027
11. Josephine : Bien que le film ait été très bien reçu lors de son passage à Sundance l'inconnu reste ici le distributeur Sumerian Pictures qui est encore récent mais qui semble vouloir faire de ce film son tremplin pour s'insérer dans la course aux récompenses (je suis plutôt confiant perso). Mais même si le film parvient à être nommé en meilleur film, malgré les plutôt bons retours sur la photographie ce n'est pas la catégorie dans laquelle il a le plus de chances.
12. Saturn Return : Nouveau film du duo Greg Kwedar et Clint Bentley, il sortira sur Netflix. Andrew Droz Palermo qui a par exemple fait la photographie de The Green Knight travaille dessus.
13. Coward : En compétition à Cannes. Les 2 précédents films du réalisateur ne me font pas penser que ça sera nommé ici mais ça reste un film de guerre donc on ne sait jamais.
14. The Uprising : Film d'époque/guerre de Paul Greengrass.
15. Hurlevent : Déjà sorti, malgré le succès au box-office les reviews ne sont pas dingues (vraiment pas aimé perso), il est très peu probable qu'on en parle à la fin de l'année pour la course aux récompenses mais si c'est le cas il faut noter la très belle photographie de Linus Sandgren (1 victoire) qui aura néanmoins largement plus de chances d'être nommé pour Dune 3.
16. Paper Tiger : Tourné sur pellicule 35mm, les premières photos sont sympa, ça reste un film de James Gray, lui et les Oscars c'est pas trop ça.
17. Animals : Ce nouveau film de Ben Affleck ne semble pas être un Oscar contender à première vue. Robert Elswit (2 nominations pour 1 victoire) travaille dessus mais ses derniers films c'était pas trop ça, par contre niveau série il s'est distingué en faisant la photo de Ripley récemment.
18. Queen at Sea : Adolpho Veloso (1 nomination) travaille dessus, le film est déjà passé au festival de Berlin, d'après les retours la photographie semble sympathique mais probablement pas assez pour être nommée.
19. L'Inconnue : Film en compétition à Cannes, le précédent film de Harari avait plutôt une bonne photographie, j'attends d'avoir un trailer ou les retours pour me dire qu'il a une chance dans cette catégorie.
20. Histoires de la nuit : En compétition à Cannes. Paul Guilhaume (1 nomination) travaille dessus.
21. The Adventures of Cliff Booth : Erik Messerschmidt (1 victoire (après c'est en 2021, ça veut pas dire grand-chose)) travaille dessus. Je pense pas que cette suite de Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ait une vraie chance aux Oscars mais même si c'est le cas on a déjà un trailer et la photographie est très sombre, on voit pas grand-chose donc je pense que ça ne sera pas nommé dans cette catégorie.
22. A Long Winter : Nouveau film de Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers).
23. Being Heumann : Le film semble être un potentiel Oscar contender. Jamie Ramsay qui a fait la photo de Vivre et Sans jamais nous connaître travaille dessus.
24. Deep Cuts : Film de Sean Durkin (Iron Claw). Le travail passé du directeur photo semble être bon (il a gagné 2 fois l'ASC Spotlight Award (même directeur photo que Moulin au dessus)).
25. The Social Reckoning : Pour cette "suite" de The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth (2 nominations) qui avait donc fait la photo de Social Network revient à la barre. Déjà faire une suite à un film comme The Social Network peut être assez casse-gueule donc on est assez incertain quant à ses chances aux Oscars et très clairement la photographie n'est pas la première priorité, surtout que ce n'est pas David Fincher qui réalise mais Aaron Sorkin qui avait donc écrit le scénario de Social Network et qui bien qu'ayant réalisé des films ayant plutôt bien marché avec l'académie, ce n'étaient pas des films visuellement impressionnants, je ne suis donc pas très confiant dans cette catégorie.
26. Wild Horse Nine : La photo a l'air sympa sans plus, les précédents films de Martin McDonagh n'ont pas été nommés en meilleure photographie malgré avoir été vraiment bien reçus par l'académie donc je pense que ça doit au moins être dans le top 3 en Best Picture pour avoir une chance d'être nommé (puisque 3 Billboards qui avait gagné meilleur film aux BAFTA avait été nommé là-bas en photographie). Je suis pas aussi confiant que tout le monde sur le film perso.
27. Disclosure Day : Je sais que c'est un film de Spielberg mais au vu des trailers je ne pense pas que ça soit un Oscar contender et surtout je ne pense pas que ce soit un contender dans cette catégorie. Janusz Kaminski (7 nominations pour 2 victoires), le directeur photo habituel de Spielberg, travaille dessus.
28. Behemoth : Pas sûr que ça sorte en 2026, et il a probablement plus de chances dans d'autres catégories.
29. Fleur : Le directeur de la photographie de Nickel Boys travaille dessus.
30. Switzerland : Je mets ça ici car Robbie Ryan (2 nominations) travaille dessus.
31. High End : Je mets ça ici car Robbie Ryan (2 nominations) travaille dessus.
32. Harmonia : Film de Guy Nativ, le directeur photo de Sound of Falling travaille dessus.
33. The Lost Children of Tuam : Directeur photo de The Quiet Girl travaille dessus.
34. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma : Malgré les bons retours, le film n'est pas en compétition mais seulement à Un Certain Regard je pense qu'il n'a aucune chance, ce n'est pas du goût de l'Académie.
35. Wildwood : Alors pourquoi aurais-je mis un film d'animation dans ma liste pour meilleure photographie ? Tout simplement car Caleb Deschanel (6 nominations) travaille dessus et la dernière fois qu'il a travaillé sur un film (en live action) il a été nommé en 2019 pour un film étranger dont personne ne parlait et personne ne l'avait même considéré dans ses pronostics (regardez la réaction de The Oscar Expert quand il est nommé et qu'ils sont choqués devant la nomination : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1Rtzr5gwKo&t=378s). Donc s'il a réussi à être nommé pour un film étranger que personne n'attendait, s'il y a une personne pour faire nommer un film d'animation c'est lui.
36. Wicker : Il est passé au festival de Sundance, la photographie ne semble pas avoir été remarquée contrairement au maquillage et au costume, je le mets quand même au cas où sur la liste car Lol Crawley (1 victoire) travaille dessus.
37. Her Private Hell: Le fait que ca ne soit pas en compétition à Cannes mais en Hors Compétition tue ses chances pour moi. Il y a peut être des jeux avec la lumière néon qui sont intéréssants mais je ne pense pas
38. L'Être Aimé : Film en compétition à Cannes, je pense pas que ça ait des chances dans cette catégorie.
39. Minotaur : En compétition à Cannes, je ne pense pas que le film ait une chance dans cette catégorie. 
40. The Statement : Film réalisé et écrit par Tom McCarthy (3 nominations aux Oscars dont 1 victoire et un de ses films a gagné meilleur film). Stuart Dryburgh (1 nomination) travaille dessus mais il n'a pas l'air d'avoir fait grand-chose de remarqué en dehors du film pour lequel il a été nommé. Sort peut être en 2027.
41. Changer l'eau des fleurs : Nouveau film de Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Amélie Poulain), c'est son premier film au cinéma depuis 13 ans (si on oublie son BigBug qui est, de ce que j'ai entendu, très mauvais, sorti sur Netflix en 2022), il adapte ici un livre très bien noté sur Goodreads (4,27). Le film n'est pas présent à Cannes mais ce n'est pas inquiétant car il sort en décembre en France ce qui laisse à penser qu'il apparaîtra peut-être au Festival de Venise, et si le film est très bon, est en compétition et gagne un gros prix il pourrait potentiellement surgir dans la course aux récompenses, mais ça fait beaucoup trop de "et si" pour que je le mette plus haut dans mes pronostics, d'autant plus que ses 2 films nommés aux Oscars avaient reçu une nomination en photographie mais il travaillait à l'époque avec le directeur photo Bruno Delbonnel, alors que sur ce film c'est un inconnu qui fait la photo.
42. Out of This World : Pas à Cannes car le film est empêtré dans un montage de 4h (il a 800h de rushes), à voir si ça passe dans un autre festival cette année ou si ça attend Cannes 2027. Dans tous les cas je n'arrive pas à concevoir un film d'Albert Serra aux Oscars.
43. Fjord : En compétition à Cannes, je ne pense pas que le film ait une chance dans cette catégorie.
44. Pressure : Bon je pense que ce film n'est rien en termes de course aux récompenses, force à TheAwardsGarage qui pronostique ça en meilleur film 😂. Jamie Ramsay qui a fait la photo de Vivre et Sans jamais nous connaître travaille dessus.
45. In the Hand of Dante : Ça semble être une belle photographie en noir et blanc, le truc typique que la branche adore, MAIS le film est passé à Venise en 2025 et les retours sont mauvais, je pense que ça ne sortira même pas à ce rythme.
46. The Chaperones : Film A24 produit par Brad Pitt, Robert Pattinson ou encore Jeremy Kleiner & Dede Gardner (qui ont produit 8 films nommés à l'Oscar du meilleur film et 2 ont gagné). Néanmoins pas d'éléments qui me disent qu'il ait des chances dans cette catégorie pour le moment.

Globalement le Top 11 est solide, en dehors de ca c'est plus compliqué.

1. The Odyssey: Not much to say, it seems like the safest choice at the moment. Ellen Mirojnick (1 nomination) is working on it.
2. Narnia: It's just logical, Gerwig's last two films were nominated in this category and it's even more logical on paper for this one to be nominated. Even though there's no Costume Designer credited on IMDB yet, I assume it's going to be Jacqueline Durran (9 nominations for 2 wins) who will work on it.
3. Cry to Heaven: Not 100% sure it'll come out this year but I think the film will be at Venice and released at the end of the year. As we know, the film is directed by Tom Ford, who spent his entire career as a fashion designer (Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent) and has now decided, after directing 2 well-received films, to fully commit to cinema after selling his brand (he's absolutely loaded with money so in my opinion if the film wants to be very ambitious it won't have any trouble). I therefore assume that for this period film, particular attention will be paid to the costumes (which seems to be confirmed by the rare images we have from the set).
4. Sense and Sensibility: A film that will have to live up to the 1995 adaptation that was praised by the Oscars. It does seem at first glance, however, to be one of, if not the, top priority for Focus Features in the awards race. I assume a costume nomination is its best shot.
5. Werwulf: Eggers' last film, Nosferatu, was nominated. Linda Muir (1 nomination) is working on it. 
6. Dune 3: The second opus wasn't nominated, but this one has the advantage of releasing in December. The nomination will depend on the film's overall strength as a contender and if there are enough new costumes. Jacqueline West (5 nominations) is working on it.
7. Digger: Very little info on the costumes for now, i hear more about the production design or the makeup, though I still think they'll be good. Jacqueline West (5 nominations) is working on it but the problem is she's also doing the costumes for Dune 3, and there's probably more of a chance she gets nominated for that film I would guess.
8. Jack of Spades: Not impossible, though from what i see on the pictures of the set I'm more confident about a Production Design nomination than in this category. Michael O'Connor (3 nominations) is working on it. 
9. I Love Boosters: Since the film played at South by Southwest, we know there's good work on the costumes, but the May release won't help it. Shirley Kurata (1 nomination) is working on it.
10. The Devil Wears Prada 2: The original movie ended up nominated in this category back in the day, not sure this new installment will replicate that, but the fact that it'll likely be a box-office hit could of course help it if it's combined with good reviews.
11. Michael: Haven't seen the movie yet, the costume work seems great from what I see in the trailer but the bad critical reception (38 Metacritic) and its April release date are not going to help, especially in what looks like such a competitive year.
12. Wicker: We already have some feedback since the film played at Sundance at the start of the year. It seems to be an enjoyable crowd-pleaser (3.8 Letterboxd) and even if the makeup seems to have been the most talked-about element, the costumes also seem to have been appreciated, and with these good reviews the film might have the potential to be a stronger contender than we might think right now. The only element that worries me here is the distribution by Black Bear, which has so far failed with its new US distribution branch(Christy 😂).
13. The Uprising: A period film by Paul Greengrass. 
14. The Duchess and I: Nobody has considered this new movie by Mike Newell (Four Weddings and a Funeral, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Donnie Brasco), the release seems planned for 2026 (not 100% sure) and Sandy Powell (15 nominations for 3 wins) is working on the costumes.
15. Coward: In competition at Cannes, set during World War One. It will need to win a prize to be in the running. I don't know, however, whether the costume work will be strong enough.
16. Wuthering Heights: Released too early in the year and doesn't have strong enough reviews to get nominated, I think, especially since the costumes, while very beautiful, don't necessarily serve the story: they're just extremely stylized to look pretty and you cycle through them like a fashion show. Jacqueline Durran (9 nominations for 2 wins) worked on it.
17. Mother Mary: The film just came out, the feedback on the costumes is good but the film's reviews are not strong enough, i think, to keep it alive through the end of the year, especially since it seems to be a film that leaves a fair number of people cold. Bina Daigeler (1 nomination) worked on it. 
18. The Bride: The costumes are good, the film unfortunately is less so and will probably have no presence at awards ceremonies, especially since in this category Warner Bros has other films to prioritize (Digger, Dune 3). Sandy Powell (15 nominations for 3 wins) worked on it. 
19. Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol: The costumes visible in the first photo of the set looks good. Not sure that's enough, especially with Johnny Depp in the film and Paramount no longer running Oscar campaigns.
20. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping: I don't think it's happening because the Hunger Games franchise has never resonated with the Academy or awards ceremonies in general. Bina Daigeler (1 nomination) is working on it, presumably replacing Trish Summerville who probably wasn't available due to a scheduling conflict. I saw the trailer, the costumes look good but probably not enough to get nominated outside of the Costume Designers Guild Awards.
21. Pressure: Looks like a random we don't care biopic, I don't believe in it at all, even more so with the May release (or when they snubbed Nuremberg last year (it deserved to be nominated in my opinion 😢)). There seems to be some costume work in this film. Good luck to The Awards Garage who put this film in his Best Picture predictions 😅.
22. Hope: In competition at Cannes, I'd be surprised if there's any particular costume work, but it remains to be confirmed. 
23. Behemoth!: I'm not sure it comes out in 2026 and based on the few set photos, it doesn't seem to be a film with any particular focus on the costumes, but Mary Zophres (4 Oscar nominations) is working on it so maybe we're wrong?
24. Being Heumann: I'm not sure, maybe if it's among the Best Picture contenders it has enough going on to have a shot in this category? I still think that won't be the case and the film has far better prospects in other categories. Danny Glicker (1 nomination) is working on it.
25. Fatherland: In competition at Cannes. Maybe? I don't know, it will of course depend on whether it wins an award, but as far as the costumes are concerned, I'm not too optimistic at the moment, especially since Cold War, the director's previous film, despite being highly acclaimed (3 Oscar nominations), was only nominated for Best Costume Design at the Polish Film Awards, and it didn't even win. I think we're gonna have a similar work on the costumes here.
26. The Adventures of Cliff Booth: I don't believe much in the film, like a lot of people, but if this sequel to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood were to become a Best Picture contender, we could then argue that since the first film was nominated here, Cliff Booth could also be nominated for Costume. The problem is that from what I see in the trailer, the work doesn't seem significant or different enough to get a nomination, and above all the cinematography is very dark and does absolutely nothing to highlight the costumes. Trish Summerville (1 nomination) is working on it.
27. A Man of His Time: A French film in competition at Cannes, more of a period film, if it wins a prize at Cannes and it's selected by France, it will have a slim chance in this category, even though I don't think the costume work will be strong enough.
28. The Death of Robin Hood: Very little chance of being a contender anywhere, I think. And looking at the trailer, the costume work seems too lightweight to have a shot, especially since it doesn't seem to be highlight due to a dark cinematography.
29. The Face of Horror: Almost no information on this period/horror film but I don't think it has any real chance given the director's previous films, which seem quite particular. I'm leaving it here just in case. 
30. De Gaulle: Tilting Iron: There's like 1% chance France submits this film to the Oscars, and if they do, the film could claim a spot in the conversation for this category and others (VFX, Makeup, Sound, Production Design).
31. Wild Horse Nine: 2% of people put it in their predictions on AwardExpert, am I missing something??? If it happens, it wins Best Picture.
32. Dracula: Made $13M at the US box office early in the year but the reviews are not good. The only category for which it was nominated at the César (French Awards) is costumes, and I think that will similarly be its only chance here, but an extremely really slim one, and I sincerely hope it doesn't happen (LUC BESSON film 🤮).
33. Quasimodo: An ambitious French Netflix film, there might be some good costume work but I'm not confident about the film and I think it won't appear in the conversation and will aim mainly at French audiences.
34. Klara and the Sun: Probably not, especially since I don't think the film has any Oscar prospects to begin with, and the costumes will likely be basic, otherwise we'd have already heard something after CinemaCon. Mayes C. Rubeo (1 nomination) is working on it.