r/oscarrace

This season my roster is :

- The Odyssey (45$)

- La Bola Negra (20$)

- The Invite (10$)

- Wildwood (10$)

- Klara na the Sun (5$)

- Ray Gunn (5$)

- Wicker (3$)

- Madden (1$)

Share yours

>We’ve learned that before Navarrette was revealed last week as a star of the next “X-Men” movie for Marvel, with Adam Driver and Sadie Sink, she was on the short list of actresses being wooed to star in “Heat 2” — the upcoming sequel to Michael Mann’s epic crime drama which is scheduled to start shooting this fall.

>A knowledgeable source confirmed that due to her commitment to the upcoming “X-Men,” the breakout star is no longer in contention to join Christian Bale and Leonardo DiCaprio to play the role of Sharlene, a character originated by Ashley Judd.

>P6H has also learned that Navarrette passed on a role that would’ve paid her $2.5 million for a horror project directed by Mattias Hoehne.

I for sure thought this was going to be Neon's animated play. I'm just suprised such a well reviewed movie with that cast isn't getting any traction with distributors? Or is a deal in place we dont know about?

I'm seeing a lot of people expecting both The Invite and The Debut to do well at the Oscars. But I am really skeptical A24 can pull that off, since their history shows that they are uniquely bad at campaigning multiple films, and their secondary contenders usually massively underperform with both nominations and wins.

A24 has been distributing films since 2013. Here is their track record in that time span:

2013: A24 is a brand new studio and gets no noms.

2014: A24 gets no nominations again, though it did get a BAFTA nom for score for Under the Skin and Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms for Best Supporting Actress for Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year.

2015: A24 gets its first Best Picture nom with Room, which wins Best Actress and overperforms to get a Best Director nom. Ex Machina gets several precursor noms, including a PGA nom, but misses Best Picture and only gets 2 nominations.

2016: Moonlight becomes A24's first Best Picture winner. 20th Century Women underperforms and only gets a Best Original Screenplay nom, missing Picture to far less acclaimed films and missing Best Actress despite plenty of buzz in the category.

2017: Lady Bird gets a bunch of nominations. The Florida Project underperforms and only gets a single nomination for Best Supporting Actor, which it loses despite Willem Dafoe being the early front runner. The Disaster Artist misses Best Actor and only gets a screenplay nom.

2018: First Reformed gets a Screenplay nom, but misses Best Actor despite Hawke sweeping the critics prizes. Every other A24 film misses every Oscar category with none of Eighth Grade, Hereditary, and Mid-90s being able to break out - even though Eighth Grade won the WGA over Green Book, Roma, and Vice.

2019: The Farewell is A24's main contender and misses every Oscar category. Uncut Gems gets no nominations despite a strong showing at the Critics Choice Awards. The Lighthouse is A24's only film to get a nomination with its lone Best Cinematography nom.

2020: A24 has its comeback at the Oscars with Minari getting nominated across the board. Their secondary contenders like First Cow and On the Rocks get 0 nominations but weren't expected to get anything.

2021: A24 misses Best Picture again when The Tragedy of Macbeth massively underperforms with only 3 nominations. The studio's secondary contenders like C'mon C'mon and Red Rocket get 0 nominations.

2022: A24 has its best year ever as a studio as Everything Everywhere All at Once sweeps. The Whale misses Best Picture but gets 3 nominations, including wins for Best Actor and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Aftersun gets a surprise Best Actor nom but misses every other category.

2023: The Zone of Interest overperforms and gets nominated across the board, but Past Lives massively underperforms expectations for it and only gets 2 nominations - for Picture and Screenplay. The Iron Claw gets 0 nominations.

2024: The Brutalist is a top 3 Oscar contender, but Sing Sing goes from being an early season front runner to only getting 3 nominations and missing Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor. Queer misses Best Actor despite a strong precursor run.

2025: Marty Supreme gets nominated across the board but gets zero wins. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You only gets a Best Actress nom. Sorry Baby misses completely.

A24 has only gotten multiple Best Picture nominees in the same year once, in 2023 (with The Zone of Interest and Past Lives).

A24 has only ever gotten 3+ nominations for multiple films in the same year twice, in 2022 (with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale) and in 2024 (with The Brutalist and Sing Sing). They have never gotten 4+ nominations for multiple films in the same year, despite other studios regularly being able to pull that off (for example, Warner Bros., Focus, Netflix, and Neon all accomplished that last year). And they have never gotten 3+ above the line noms for multiple films in the same year.

And 2022 is also one of only two years in which multiple A24 movies won Oscars, with Everything Everywhere All at Once of course winning a bunch and The Whale winning Best Actor and Best Makeup. The other one was 2015, when Room won Best Actress and Ex Machina won Best Visual Effects.

Given this track record, I'm highly skeptical that A24 will get multiple Best Picture nominees, have multiple Oscar-winning films, or get 3 nominations or more for multiple films on their slate. They always just focus on a single film and then maximize the noms they can get for it, even at the expense of their other contenders. If The Debut is A24’s main contender, I wouldn’t expect The Invite to get anything more than screenplay, 1 acting nom, and picture at most. And if The Invite is A24’s main contender, I think The Debut will just get Moore and Giamatti in and maybe a Song nom.

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For started i want to establish this is not a hate post- Dune pt. 2 was my favorite film in its year and I actively rooted for it to win as much as it could back then, unlikely as this was after precursors established. Pt. 3 is my most anticipated picture remaining to be released this year too.

I see many people, including top “experts”, predicting Pt. 3 as a frontrunner in BP and BD categories, and personally it doesn’t make sense to me, realistically.

It appears that some say we are in for a “Return of the King” scenario. It’s possible we will see something like this, but personally I find it a little unlikely. The comparison is just strange to me.

One thing that is important to get into context is that ROTK was a massive crowd pleaser (not in a bad way, but still an epic mostly-happy conclusion to the beloved saga). “Dune Pt. 2” was more close to that in term of catharsis in the end, but going by the “Dune Messiah” book, “Dune pt. 3” is presumably going in a complete opposite direction than ROTK, in terms of crowd pleasing and a perfectly tied up catharsis.

A closer comparison would be Game of Thrones S8. It ended up sweeping the Emmy’s, yes, but that was after the 3 previous seasons kinda swept the Emmys as well. It already had an insane support from industry, and it just continued the course. Also it was still the biggest show IN HISTORY, so it was hard to deny. But we did see how so many of the general audience reacted to the final season (unfortunately, personally I loved it). So I don’t expect ROTK levels of fan acclaim to Pt. 3, unless the writers changed a lot of it. But who knows.

Here with the Dune movies, the first movie done very well BTL, but certainly not ATL (no nom for Denis in directing), and pt. 2 underperformed in both. Thinking it will actually be the the 3rd, unconventional, part that will shift the trendline is, mayhaps possible in a way, but not very likely, in my personal opinion.

And don’t get me wrong, the fact it’s not a crowd pleaser doesn’t ruin its chances. Oscar’s doesn’t necessarily go to crowd pleasers. We might be surprised, and we need to wait to see the reception. But it does, in my opinion, render the entire ROTK comparison rather strange. Especially in a year we have something like ‘The Odyssey’, which is not a conclusion to a trilogy but actually closer in nature to ROTK by all means.

What do you think? Other than hope-dicting, why do so many people expect Dune pt. 3 to change the course?