r/oscarrace

>but the shame does not lie with the gay people. The shame lies with the governments who ignored the AIDS crisis and the stigma that was around people and the innate prejudice that was in society. So that’s someone else’s shame.”

Already we are seeing many Academy members going to bat for Digger in the face of polarizing reviews and bombing at the box office. The film is being lauded as a bold artistic swing and a triumph of artistic film making in the face of an increasingly corporatized Hollywood by the people that actually manner in this equation: high profile academy members. These are the people who vote for the nominations, and these people have influence over many other members as well, which we’ve seen time and time again. Bombing at the box office isn’t going to mean anything come nomination time when the narrative has already become bold Art in a sea of mergers and safe decision to maximize profit.

Expect digger to earn multiple nominations, namely Best Actor for Cruise and several production nods.

Expect Digger

Visual Effects Supervisor: Andrew Jackson (Dunkirk, Tenet)
Special Effects Supervisor: Scott Fisher
Production Designer: Ruth De Jong (Oppenheimer)

>[DNEG release for Press]: The fantastical elements were embraced visually and narratively. “The challenge for Andrew Jackson and Scott Fisher and their teams was how to create fantastical imagery within the tone of the rest of the film,” Nolan observes. “That’s the big brass ring of visual effects. That’s when the visual effects and special effects artists are working at their best in creating imagery that is seamless with the rest of the film.” Part of the believability equation is tactility. “Andrew, Scott and I spent a lot of time talking about Ray Harryhausen’s stop-motion or Rick Baker’s makeups or Rob Bottin’s sculptural makeup. The one thing all these different techniques shared is a strong sense of the tactile.” There is also a cinematic truth that needs to be respected. “The audience wants to invest in the story and to believe in The Odyssey. You have to give them a reason to believe.”

...

>All the stuff in Troy, Cyclops’ cave, whirlpool and Scylla, you start breaking each one down into elements we can film. Is it going to be visual effects or a combination of the two? Chris doesn’t like throwing everything to a CG solution. It’s always, ‘Let’s see what we can come up with. Where we can get to practically and then we’ll fix or expand or improve it with the CG option.’”

>This hybrid methodology was utilized for the Cyclops. “We built a big stick figure that was the correct scale, 36 feet tall, and started with that,” Fisher explains. “It was extremely light, so it was easy to puppeteer. In France, they have these gigantic puppets in parade style. We looked at some of the ways they did that. Guys jumping off ropes and using their weight. As soon as you get something that big, weight becomes a factor. We built it in the lightest, simplest form first, got it moving, and then figured out what we could get from that. When we built the one with skin, dimension and size, obviously the weight went up, but we stuck to our core research of how it would move [using] counterweighting, ropes and guides. Then we built a whole hand for picking up people and feet for specialty things. They were all full-sized. They all needed some CGI fixes and repairs.”

>A single practical head was created for the six-headed Scylla. “There was more development on that,” Fisher reveals. “Someone had to figure out what it looked like before we could build the practical thing. Once we built the giant foam puppeteered version, we could work with stunts, use it on wires to grab and pull people, and destroy breakaway items and the boat. We could use that to interact with people because those are the hardest bits to get in CGI.” A practical component was incorporated into the Charybdis, which takes the form of a whirlpool. “It’s all about getting things scaled up to the right proportions for the boat and scene. We did a lot of tests with boats. You see these big ferries and how they churn the water? That’s basically what we did on a bigger scale but in the open ocean. We used a lot of boat-like thrusters to try to get this big disturbance as large-scale as we could in the open ocean.” Water simulations were needed to make the Charybdis look believable. “There are a couple of higher shots where we do see down and how deep the whirlpool is; those were the ones that we affected more with CG.”

On a few of my more unusual picks

• Possible Love has a higher Metacritic/Letterboxd than All of a Sudden and Fjord, and beat them out at TIFF People’s Choice. Not sure why it’s being slept on so much.
• Being Heumann being Apple’s first priority vs I Play Rocky being Amazon’s second is enough for me to give it the slight edge.
• I don’t want to predict Jessie Eisenberg in Director but every other option seems even less likely to me.
• I am confident that Penelope Cruz is getting nominated for SOMETHING, but I have no idea which. I don’t think there’s enough hype for both. Right now I’m leaning LBN but I wouldn’t be surprised if I was wrong. 
• I made a whole [post](https://old.reddit.com/r/oscarrace/comments/1woae86/the_case_against_paul_giamatti/) about my Supporting Actor win prediction
• I think You Can See Everything will get gatekept by the ficklest branch in the Academy. They are willing to snub anything. 
• People are overestimating Dune 3 like they do with every sequel every year.

BEST PICTURE

I’ve viewed La Bola Negra and The Odyssey as our top 2 for quite a period, and with the former winning the TIFF People’s Choice only reaffirmed Picture will probably be a race between them. For now, I’m going to give Odyssey the edge since its win package feels reminiscent of what Oppenheimer pulled but LBN has a good case to spoil if guilds rep it hard. Post fall fests, Wild Horse Nine and The Debut look to solidly in, probably not win-contenders here but both look to be gunning for Acting wins, 5-8 I don’t have much to add to, Obsession I’ll keep in my 10 but on rocky ground and for my last spot, I decided to move Artificial. My reservations towards predicting Guadagnino given his recent track record with the Academy aside, the buzz seems strong and could be a potential sneak. Outside my 10, I’m keeping my eye on Fjord, Possible Love or I Play Rocky. Digger I feel goes the way of Babylon of landing a few crafts but not a nominee especially after bombing as hard it has.

DIRECTING

Nolan and Los Javis feel locked to me and the only ones in win contention, McDonagh I think is solid as well as Hamaguchi. I’ve had this Top 4 since July/August and trying to rationalize the 5th spot after dropping Iñárritu and have landed on Olivia Wilde. Hurdles aside, the lack of women-helmed films here and A24 getting a director nom for each of their Picture plays minus Past Lives has panned out before so it could work for her or even Eisenberg. As far as everyone else, Mungiu or Lee Chang-dong could be the international auteur the branch goes for if AoaS slipped or they don’t do the actor/directors, Villeneuve I’ve warmed up to his narrative slightly of honoring him for his achievement for the trilogy but my reservations aren’t going away and won’t put him in unless Dune is win-competitive in Picture or his best reviewed film.

LEAD ACTRESS

With the raves she’s gotten (especially getting standing ovations mid-film), Julianne Moore looks on pace to win her 2nd Oscar and quite frankly if anyone deserves another one it’s her. Navarrete and Wilde look solidly in but I decided to move Olivia up over Inde since The Invite feels more stable in Picture than Obsession, whether or not she places in Director she’ll land here. The last 2 spots are a shuffle of Efria, Hüller and Madeley, all three make a ton of sense but decided on Efria since I have AoaS in my Picture lineup and Hüller since she’s my pick for the Globe Drama at the moment, although the narrative surrounding Madeley is very tempting not to mention reviews for her are pretty solid.

LEAD ACTOR

Malkovich, Damon and Scott I think are happening, it’s the last two spots I’m trying to rationalize. I moved Gosling back into the 5 with how front and center he is for his movie but doesn’t feel locked and I’ll keep Pascal since he’s gotten enough praise even if Behemoth isn’t a big contender. Outside the 5, I won’t the possibly of Cruise, Turturro, Pattinson, Ippolito or even Rogen. Having seen Digger, I think Cruise is very good and if it had better critical reception I’d think he could be in win conversation; with that said I won’t rule him out since he might hit a couple precursors, but we’ll see how he does across the season.

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Not a ton to add here, unless an alternative forms I still think Hathaway is walking away with the win. Last time I made a prediction post, I had 4/5 of this same lineup in the exact order, only difference is Morton in, Girolamo out.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

With the fall fests in the books, this category looks more confusing to me. Giamatti has gotten good enough reviews for his movie but all the praise has been channeled towards Moore, and looking at the lineup I have, Norton, Leguizamo, Rockwell and Guitarricadelafuente round it out but I might have to fall back on critic groups to be honest. One thing I will add regarding Artificial and despite not having Garfield in my lineup, he’s the contender I’m keeping an eye on if his film plays really strong.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Wild Horse Nine and The Debut look to be duking it out for the win, could go either way but I’m leaning towards WH9 having an edge but they’re the Top 2. After seeing Fjord, I moved it back into my lineup, whether or not it makes the 10, it could be a repeat of IWJAA’s package. Obsession I’m keeping in for the time being, and in my last spot, I put Artificial in the 5, will keep an eye on Club Kid, Tender Loving Care or Possible Love as outside contenders.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Last time I made a predictions post, I had this 5 but with Ink instead of Project Hail Mary. I feel La Bola Negra is our frontrunner with The Invite as a spoiler, each People’s Choice Winner in Best Picture since Silver Linings Playbook with the exception of The Fabelmans & Life of Chuck which wasn't nominated won an AtL prize and whether or not LBN overtakes The Odyssey in Picture, and this is its strongest bet in a Top 8 category.

The 2026 London Film Festival is taking place from October 7th to October 18th

Gala Screenings:

Elsinore - October 7th (Opening Night)

The Beloved - October 8th

La Bola Negra - October 8th

I Love Boosters - October 9th

Wild Horse Nine - October 9th

Bunker - October 10th

Ray Gunn - October 10th

Paper Tiger - October 10th

Artificial - October 11th

Wildwood - October 11th

Possible Love - October 11th

Ink - October 12th

Being Heumann - October 12th

Documentary Special Presentation: 14th (dir Ava DuVernay) - October 12th

Behemoth! - October 13th

Prima Facie - October 13th

A Long Winter - October 14th

Fatherland - October 14th

Klara and the Sun - October 15th

Tender Loving Care - October 15th

Minotaur - October 16th

Club Kid - October 17th

Fjord - October 17th

Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother - October 17th

The Debut - October 18th (Closing Night)