r/oscarrace

>EXCLUSIVE: Jesse Eisenberg has confirmed his upcoming film The Debut will launch at an autumn film festival this year, and teased new projects including an A24 series with The Social Reckoning producer Peter Rice.
Eisenberg confirmed to Screen that the film will launch at a festival this year. He could not disclose which festival, joking that “[producers] A24 will sue me”.
“We have the most wonderful trajectory,” said Eisenberg. “[A24] are so supportive, and I couldn’t feel luckier going into the fall with them.”

Year	Best Picture winner	Director of Best Picture winner	Best Director nomination	Acting nominee/s	Best Director winner/s	Acting winner/s
1927/1928	Wings	William Wellman	No	No	Frank Borzage for 7th Heaven and Lewis Milestone for Two Arabian Knights	Best Actor for Emil Jannings for both The Last Command and The Way of All Flesh and Best Actress for Janet Gaynor for 7th Heaven, Street Angel and Sunrise
1928/1929	The Broadway Melody	Harry Beaumont	Yes	Best Actress for Bessie Love	Frank Lloyd for The Divine Lady	Mary Pickford for Coquette
1930/1931	Cimarron	Wesley Ruggles	Yes	Best Actor for Richard Dix and Best Actress for Irene Dunn	Norman Taurog for Skippy	Lionel Barrymore for A Free Soul and Marie Dressler for Min and Bill
1931/1932	Grand Hotel	Edmund Goulding	No	No	Frank Borzage for Bad Girl	Best Actor for Fredric March for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and Wallace Beery for The Champ and Best Actress for Helen Hayes for The Sin of Madelon Claudet
1935	Mutiny on the Bounty	Frank Lloyd	Yes	Best Actor for Clark Gable, Charles Laughton and Franchot Tone	John Ford for The Informer	Victor McLaglen for The Informer
1940	Rebecca	Alfred Hitchcock	Yes	Best Actor for Laurence Olivier, Best Actress for Joan Fontaine and Best Supporting Actress for Judith Anderson	John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath	James Stewart for The Philadelphia Story, Ginger Rogers for Kitty Foyle and Jane Darwell for The Grapes of Wrath
1951	An American in Paris	Vincente Minnelli	Yes	No	George Stevens for A Place in the Sun	Best Actor for Humphreey Bogart for The African Queen and Best Actress for Vivien Leigh, Best Supporting Actor for Karl Malden and Best Supporting Actress for Kim Hunter for A Streetcar Named Desire
1952	The Greatest Show on Earth	Cecile DeMile	Yes	No	John Ford for The Quiet Man	Best Actor for Gary Cooper for High Noon, Best Actress for Shirley Booth for Come Back, Little Sheba, Best Supporting Actor for Anthony Quinn for Viva Zapata! and Best Supporting Actress for Gloria Grahame for The Bad and the Beautiful
1956	Around the World in 80 Days	Michael Anderson	Yes	No	George Stevens for Giant	Best Actor for Yul Brynner for The King and I, Best Actress for Ingrid Bergman for Anastasia, Best Supporting Actor for Anthony Quinn for Lust for Life and Best Supporting Actress for Dorothy Malone for Written on the Wind
1981	Chariots of Fire	Hugh Hudson	Yes	Best Supporting Actor for Ian Holm	Warren Beatty for Reds	John Gielgud for Arthur
2005	Crash	Paul Haggis	Yes	Best Supporting Actor for Matt Dillon	Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain	George Clooney for Syriana
2012	Argo	Ben Affleck	No	Best Supporting Actor for Alan Arkin	Ang Lee for Life of Pi	Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
2015	Spotlight	Tom McCarthy	Yes	Best Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo and Best Supporting Actress for Rachel McAdams	Alejandro Iñárritu for The Revenant	Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies and Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl

According to AwardsExpert’s (amazing) new app, these are the super-too-early winners on the main 7 ATL Categories:

Best Picture:
The Odyssey
RU: Wild Horse Nine

Best Director:
Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey)
RU: Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine)

Best Original Screenplay:
Wild Horse Nine
RU: Digger

Best Adapted Screenplay:
La Bola Negra
RU: The Odyssey

Best Lead Actor:
Tom Cruise, Digger
RU: John Malevich, Wild Horse Nine

Best Lead Actress:
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
RU: Julianne Moore, The Debut

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
RU: Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

Best Supporting Actor:
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
John Goodman, Digger

My question is— does anyone have any record/documentation who were the early front runners at this super-too-early stage during the last recent years?

Furthermore, is there a way to keep track of such info (in previous year, per time of year), as the months progress towards the ceremonies themselves?

As I understand it, the graph in Gold Derby shows likelihood of nomination, not winning at the current prediction center, before nominations are announced.

I know deducing anything from it is circumstantial at best, but I think it will be fun to track.

Thanks!

Every awards season produces a movie that forces Hollywood to reconsider its own rules and its own biases. This year, that movie did not arrive from a fall festival or a boutique label. It came from a YouTuber.

Why Obsession Checks the Boxes…

Thoughts** **on Obsession’s chances in the 2027 Academy Awards and what nominations it might get or none at all?

Year	Best Picture winner	Screenplay nomination	Screenplay winner/s
1927/1928	Wings	No	Best Adapted Screenplay for 7th Heaven and Best Story for Underworld
1928/1929	The Broadway Melody	No	Best Adapted Screenplay for The Patriot
1929/1930	All Quiet on the Western Front	Best Adapted Screenplay	The Big House
1931/1932	Grand Hotel	No	Best Adapted Screenplay for Bad Girl and Best Story for The Champ
1932/1933	Cavalcade	No	Best Adapted Screenplay for Little Women and Best Story for One Way Passage
1935	Mutiny on the Bounty	Best Adapted Screenplay	The Informer
1936	The Great Ziegfeld	Best Story	The Story of Louis Pasteur
1938	You Can't Take It with You	Best Adapted Screenplay	Pygmalion
1940	Rebecca	Best Adapted Screenplay	The Philadelphia Story
1941	How Green Was My Valley	Best Adapted Screenplay	Here Comes Mr. Jordan
1947	Gentleman's Agreement	Best Adapted Screenplay	Miracle on the 34th Street
1948	Hamlet	No	Best Adapted Screenplay for The Treasure of the Sierra Madre and Best Story for The Search
1949	All the King's Men	Best Adapted Screenplay	A Letter to Three Wives
1959	Ben-Hur	Best Adapted Screenplay	Room at the Top
1961	West Side Story	Best Adapted Screenplay	Judgment at Nuremberg
1962	Lawrence of Arabia	Best Adapted Screenplay	To Kill a Mockingbird
1964	My Fair Lady	Best Adapted Screenplay	Becket
1965	The Sound of Music	No	Best Original Screenplay for Darling and Best Adapted Screenplay for Doctor Zhivago
1968	Oliver!	Best Adapted Screenplay	The Lion in Winter
1976	Rocky	Best Original Screenplay	Network
1978	The Deer Hunter	Best Original Screenplay	Coming Home
1986	Platoon	Best Original Screenplay	Hannah and Her Sisters
1992	Unforgiven	Best Original Screenplay	The Crying Game
1995	Braveheart	Best Original Screenplay	The Usual Suspects
1996	The English Patient	Best Adapted Screenplay	Sling Blade
1997	Titanic	No	Best Original Screenplay for Good Will Hunting and Best Adapted Screenplay for L.A. Confidential
2000	Gladiator	Best Original Screenplay	Almost Famous
2002	Chicago	Best Adapted Screenplay	The Pianist
2004	Million Dollar Baby	Best Adapted Screenplay	Sideways
2011	The Artist	Best Original Screenplay	Midnight in Paris
2017	The Shape of Water	Best Original Screenplay	Get Out
2020	Nomadland	Best Adapted Screenplay	The Father
2023	Oppenheimer	Best Adapted Screenplay	American Fiction

Gold Derby has already put the frontrunner favorites as its top choices in most categories (most movies that haven't even been released yet), but it's worth noting that they have Obsession getting 3 major nominations in their combined Oscar predictor charts.

Oscars Nominations 2027, Combined Odds – Gold Derby

Navarette is currently in 3rd place on their top 5 actresses for Best Actress. If the Academy does 10 nominees for Best Picture again this year, they have it slated in 9th place. And finally, they have it in 5th place for Best Original Screenplay.

Again, they are already frontrunning the main contenders for the prestige movies that haven't been released yet along with Project Hail Mary, but to see them giving Obsession that much potential at this point is noteworthy because they tend to have a good overall grasp on the odds of a movie being nominated.

Year	Best Picture winner	Acting nominee/s	Acting winner/s
1927/1928	Wings	No	Best Actor for Emill Jannings for both The Last Command and The Way of All Flesh and Best Actress for Janet Gaynor for 7th Heaven, Street Angel and Sunrise
1928/1929	The Broadway Melody	Best Actress for Bessie Love	Mary Pickford for Coquette
1929/1930	All Quiet on the Western Front	No	Best Actor for George Arliss for Disraeli and Best Actress for Norma Shearer for The Divorcee
1930/1931	Cimarron	Best Actor for Richard Dix and Best Actress for Irene Dunn	Lionel Barrymore for A Free Soul and Marie Dressler for Min and Bill
1931/1932	Grand Hotel	No	Best Actor for Fredric March for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and Wallace Beery for The Champ and Best Actress for Helen Hayes for The Sin of Madelon Claudet
1932/1933	Cavalade	Best Actress for Diana Wynyard	Katharine Hepburn for Morning Glory
1935	Mutiny on the Bounty	Best Actor for Clark Gable, Charles Laughton and Franchot Tone	Victor McLaglen for The Informer
1938	You Can't Take It with You	Best Supporting Actress for Spring Byington	Fay Bainter for Jezebel
1940	Rebecca	Best Actor for Laurence Olivier, Best Actress for Joan Fontaine and Best Supporting Actress for Judith Anderson	James Stewart for The Philadelphia Story, Ginger Rogers for Kitty Foyle and Jane Darwell for The Grapes of Wrath
1943	Casablanca	Best Actor for Humphrey Bogart and Best Supporting Actor for Claude Rains	Paul Lukas for Watch on the Rhine and Charles Coburn for The More the Merrier
1951	An American in Paris	No	Best Actor for Humphrey Bogart for The African Queen and Best Actress for Vivien Leigh, Best Supporting Actor for Karl Malden and Best Supporting Actress for Kim Hunter for A Streetcar Named Desire
1952	The Greatest Show on Earth	No	Best Actor for Gary Cooper for High Noon, Best Actress for Shirley Booth for Come Back, Little Sheba, Best Supporting Actor for Anthony Quinn for Viva Zapata! and Best Supporting Actress for Gloria Grahame for The Bad and the Beautiful
1956	Around the World in 80 Days	No	Best Actor for Yul Brynner for The King and I, Best Actress for Ingrid Bergman for Anastasia, Best Supporting Actor for Anthony Quinn for Dust for Life and Best Supporting Actress for Dorothy Malone for Written on the Wind
1958	Gigi	No	Best Actor for David Niven for Separate Tables, Best Actress for Susan Hayward for I Want to Live!, Best Supporting Actor for Burl Ives for The Big Country and Best Supporting Actress for Wendy Hiller for Separate Tables
1960	The Apartment	Best Actor for Jack Lemmon, Best Actress for Shirley MacLaine and Best Supporting Actor for Jack Kruschen	Burt Lancaster for Elmer Gantry, Elizabeth Taylor for BUtterfield 8 and Peter Ustinov for Spartacus
1962	Lawrence of Arabia	Best Actor for Peter O'Toole and Best Supporting Actor for Omar Sharif	Gregory Peck for To Kill a Mockingbird and Ed Begley for Sweet Bird of Youth
1963	Tom Jones	Best Actor for Albert Finney, Best Supporting Actor for Hugh Griffith and Best Supporting Actress for Diane Cliento, Edith Evans and Joyce Redman	Sidney Poitier for Lilies on the Field, Melvyn Douglas for Hud and Margaret Rutheford for The V.I.P.s
1965	The Sound of Music	Best Actress for Julie Andrews and Best Supporting Actress for Peggy Wood	Julie Christie for Darling and Shelley Winters for A Patch of Blue
1968	Oliver!	Best Actor for Ron Moody and Best Supporting Actor for Jack Wild	Cliff Robertson for Charly and Jack Albertson for The Subject Was Roses
1969	Midnight Cowboy	Best Actor for both Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight and Best Supporting Actress for Sylvia Miles	John Wayne for True Grit and Goldie Hawn for Cactus Flower
1973	The Sting	Best Actor for Robert Redford	Jack Lemmon for Save the Tiger
1976	Rocky	Best Actor for Sylvester Stallone, Best Actress for Talia Shire and Best Supporting Actor for both Burguess Meredith and Burt Young	Peter Finch and Faye Dunaway for Network and Jason Robards for All the President's Men
1981	Chariots of Fire	Best Supporting Actor for Ian Holm	John Gielgud for Arthur
1985	Out of Africa	Best Actress for Meryl Streep and Best Supporting Actor for Klaus Maria Brandauer	Geraldine Page for The Trip to Bountiful and Don Ameche for Cocoon
1986	Platoon	Best Supporting Actor for both Tom Berenger and Willem Dafoe	Michael Caine for Hannah and Her Sisters
1987	The Last Emperor	No	Best Actor for Michael Douglas for Wall Street, Best Actress for Cher for Moonstruck, Best Supporting Actor for Sean Connery for The Untouchables and Best Supporting Actress for Olympia Dukakis for Moonstruck
1990	Dances with Wolves	Best Actor for Kevin Costner, Best Supporting Actor for Graham Greene and Best Supporting Actress for Mary McDonnell	Jeremy Irons for Reversal of Fortune, Joe Pesci for Goodfellas and Whoopi Goldberg for Ghost
1993	Schindler's List	Best Actor for Liam Neeson and Best Supporting Actor for Ralph Fiennes	Tom Hanks for Philadelphia and Tommy Lee Jones for The Fugitive
1995	Braveheart	No	Best Actor for Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas, Best Actress for Susan Sarandon for Dead Man Walking, Best Supporting Actor for Kevin Spacey for The Usual Suspects and Best Supporting Actress for Mira Sorvino for Mighty Aphrodite
1997	Titanic	Best Actress for Kate Winslet and Best Supporting Actress for Gloria Stuart	Helen Hunt for As Good as It Gets and Kim Basinger for L.A. Confidential
2003	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	No	Best Actor for Sean Penn for Mystic River, Best Actress for Charlize Theron for Monster, Best Supporting Actor for Tim Robbins for Mystic River and Best Supporting Actress for Renee Zellweger for Cold Mountain
2005	Crash	Best Supporting Actor for Matt Dillon	George Clooney for Syriana
2006	The Departed	Best Supporting Actor for Mark Wahlberg	Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine
2008	Slumdog Millionaire	No	Best Actor for Sean Penn for Milk, Best Actress for Kate Winslet for The Reader, Best Supporting Actor for Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight and Best Supporting Actress for Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2009	The Hurt Locker	Best Actor for Jeremy Renner	Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
2012	Argo	Best Supporting Actor for Alan Arkin	Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
2014	Birdman	Best Actor for Michael Keaton, Best Supporting Actor for Edward Norton and Best Supporting Actress for Emma Stone	Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything, J.K. Simmons for Whiplash and Patricia Arquette for Boyhood
2015	Spotlight	Best Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo and Best Supporting Actress for Rachel McAdams	Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies and Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl
2017	The Shape of Water	Best Actress for Sally Hawkins, Best Supporting Actor for Richard Jenkins and Best Supporting Actress for Octavia Spencer	Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Allison Janney for I, Tonya
2019	Parasite	No	Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix for Joker, Best Actress for Renee Zellweger for Judy, Best Supporting Actor for Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Best Supporting Actress for Laura Dern for Marriage Story

View Poll

The project, originally slated for an October 9th streaming release, is now rumored to be released by the end of this month. If it's true and not a mistake, that likely means the announcement would be made last-minute at the ATLA SDCC panel.

That would also mean that Paramount is not planning a festival run for it, and at the moment, they don't plan a limited theatrical release as well. Unless they come back later this year with limited screenings and engagements, it seems Paramount is putting this film completely out of the Oscar race.

Even though it's very common for Best Picture winners to also win Best Director it isn't always the case. Sometimes Best Picture and Best Director doesn't always go to the same movie

Year	Best Picture winner	Director of Best Picture winner	Best Director nomination	Best Director winner/s
1927/1928	Wings	William Wellman	No	Frank Borzage for 7th Heaven and Lewis Milestone for Two Arabian Knights
1928/1929	The Broadway Melody	Harry Beaumont	Yes	Frank Lloyd for The Divine Lady
1930/1931	Cimarron	Wesley Ruggles	Yes	Norman Taurog for Skippy
1931/1932	Grand Hotel	Edmund Goulding	No	Frank Borzage for Bad Girl
1935	Mutiny on the Bounty	Frank Lloyd	Yes	John Ford for The Informer
1936	The Great Ziegfeld	Robert Leonard	Yes	Frank Capra for Mr. Deeds Goes to Town
1937	The Life of Emile Zola	William Dieterle	Yes	Leo McCarey for The Awful Truth
1940	Rebecca	Alfred Hitchcock	Yes	John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath
1948	Hamlet	Laurence Olivier	Yes	John Huston for The Treasure of the Sierra Madre
1949	All the King's Men	Robert Rossen	Yes	Joseph Mankiewicz for A Letter to Three Wives
1951	An American in Paris	Vincente Minnelli	Yes	George Stevens for A Place in the Sun
1952	The Greatest Show on Earth	Cecile DeMille	Yes	John Ford for The Quiet Man
1956	Around the World in 80 Days	Michael Anderson	Yes	George Stevens for Giant
1967	In the Heat of the Night	Norman Jewison	Yes	Mike Nichols for The Graduate
1972	The Godfather	Francis Ford Coppola	Yes	Bob Fosse for Cabaret
1981	Chariots of Fire	Hugh Hudson	Yes	Warren Beatty for Reds
1989	Driving Miss Daisy	Bruce Beresford	No	Oliver Stone for Born on the Fourth of July
1998	Shakespeare in Love	John Madden	Yes	Steven Spielberg for Saving Private Ryan
2000	Gladiator	Ridley Scott	Yes	Steven Soderbergh for Traffic
2002	Chicago	Rob Marshall	Yes	Roman Polanski for The Pianist
2005	Crash	Paul Haggis	Yes	Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
2012	Argo	Ben Affleck	No	Ang Lee for Life of Pi
2013	12 Years a Slave	Steve McQueen	Yes	Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
2015	Spotlight	Tom McCarthy	Yes	Alejándro Iñárritu for The Revenant
2016	Moonlight	Barry Jenkins	Yes	Damien Chazelle for La La Land
2018	Green Book	Peter Farrelly	No	Alfonso Cuarón for Roma
2021	CODA	Sian Heder	No	Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog