Advice for investing in this crazy market
In a 'normal' market, I would have simply invested in the S&P 500 without overthinking it. But the market is currently facing a triple risk: the potential bursting of the AI bubble, a possible rise in interest rates, and the private credit crisis. Without talking about Iran war (And know maybe a tawain invasion).
My questions are mainly about the mining sectors:
Copper: Supply is structurally in deficit and new mines take years to open, bullish thesis in theory. But could a rise in interest rates or the bursting of the AI bubble cause prices to fall ? And would an economic slowdown make things worse?
Uranium: The current climate is rather pro-nuclear and energy demand is only intensifying. Like copper, and even more so given regulations, new mines take a long time to open. But does an economic slowdown reduce energy demand enough to weigh on uranium?
Gold and silver: I can't understand why they are falling when they should theoretically be rising ? Does it make sense to hold my mining positions in this sector or even buy the dip? The stagflation and inflation context, geopolitical tensions, and purchases by China and major banks should be pushing them higher, but if rates rise, would stagflation win out? I get the feeling that several forces are contradicting each other.
I'm asking this question notably after a 6% correction in these sectors today, following the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting. Is this short-term noise with the fundamentals still here, or am I missing something ?
I'm also wondering what would be a short and long terme impact of a higher intrest rate and how likely it is ?