I am relatively new to prediction markets, and am shocked by how the market has priced how certain it is for SGA to win MVP this year, when in basketball terms, the race is one of the closest in recent history.
- Kalshi: Shai 98%, Jokic/Wemby 2%, Polymarket: Shai 97%, Jokic 2%, Wemby 1%, when Basketball References has: Jokic 67%, Shai 21%, Luka 4%, Wemby 3%
SGA will probably take home the award, but is it really fairly valued at 98%?
Here are my arguments for each candidate. I really don't think the race is as certain as how the market is pricing it:
SGA
- Best player on the best team
- Having the most efficient 30-point scoring season ever by a volume guard
- Only five bad games all season by ESPN’s net points stat
- Scoring 1.66 points per shot, the highest ever for a volume-scoring guard
Jokic
- Near 30-point triple-double
- One of the best raw box score seasons ever
- Top advanced metric candidate
- Leads in Crafted Plus Minus and Daily Plus Minus
- Responsible for roughly one-third of Denver’s wins based on ESPN’s estimated win metric, the highest among MVP Candidates (Luka 30%, Shai 30%, Wemby 25%)
Wemby
- Best defensive player
- Spurs projected to win 45 games, they won 62, 17 above pre-season expectations
- Spurs are 17 points better per 100 possessions with Wemby on the court
u/CreamPurple7297 — 26 days ago