u/CreamPurple7297

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I have Cade getting roughly 39 PRA today.

Cade has destroyed ORL in 3 matchups this year

• 30/6/10 - 46 PRA on 36 mins
• 39/13/11 - 63 PRA on 40 mins
• 29/6/11 - 46 PRA on 37 mins

Looking at Cade's last 10 becomes less meaningful given his collapsed lung and minutes restrictions. However, he has averaged a 40 PRA in games he's played 30+ minutes in within the last 10.

Orlando is a mid-defensive team, but their perimeter defense is definitely their strong suit.

I don't know if Cade will be on a minutes restriction, and if so, how much. Assuming he plays roughly 30 minutes today, I don't think he will cash the 41.5 PRA line on Pinnacle.

Cade in last 10 + last 3 ORL matchups

I hope he proves me wrong. Is this a fair analysis? Let's see.

Paolo has struggled offensively in the last few games of the regular season and the first play-in game vs. Philly. He has scored 24, 24, 30 against 3 matchups vs. DET this season.

He's averaged 19.4 points in the last 15, 20.6 vs. top 10 defenses. However, he did play really well against Charlotte in the play in scoring 25 on solid efficiemcy.

Detroit is a top 3 defense in the last 15 games of the season. With Cade back, they're even better. Paolo is a playoff riser (avg. 28.0 in 12 games), shouldn't shy away from the light. Sharp sportsbooks (i.e., Pinnacle) have his lines set at 20.5.

I think 22 is fair. What do you guys think?

Paolo in last 15

In 35 games without Embiid this season, Maxey averaged 28.1 without Embiid. I see Maxey outperforming the 25.5 line offered by sharper sportsbooks. 

• Maxey vs. Boston without Embiid (2 games): 27.0 PPG on 25.5 FGA
• Boston has the 8th-best defense over the last 15 with a Def. Rating of 111.8
• Maxey underperformed in his last 10 regular-season games, especially against top defenses. However, he did score 31 against Orlando in the play-in.

Maxey's Last 10

Maxey's gonna drop 27, mark my words

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