r/PredictionTrading

I am making 300$ + a day on Polymarket
▲ 3 r/PredictionTrading+1 crossposts

I am making 300$ + a day on Polymarket

Built a bot that gives me signals for every upcoming 5 min candle, either UP or DOWN, so far it’s been working really great for me!👍🏼

u/Character_Hold4390 — 2 days ago

I spent 5 weeks building a bot that copies whale wallets on Polymarket. +$256 realized PnL on a $500 bankroll.

I've been building a whale copy-trading bot for Polymarket for about 5 weeks now. Started with a $500 bankroll. Here's where I'm at and what I learned.

Latest Screenshot (May 17)

First Bot Interaction April 11

The idea

Pretty simple concept: find wallets that consistently win on Polymarket, detect when they buy, and automatically mirror their trades with smaller sizes. Sounds easy. It is not.

What I actually built

The whole thing is Python running locally on my PC. No cloud, no paid APIs. Here's the architecture:

  • Whale detection — dual-feed system. Primary: on-chain WebSocket subscriptions to Polygon OrderFilled events (~2-3s detection). Fallback: REST polling every 60s as a safety net.
  • 7-gate safety array before every trade — price range check, slippage gate, balance/reserve, per-whale concentration cap, topic correlation cap, liquidity, and minimum viable exit size
  • Autonomous exit engine — mirrors whale sells in real-time, plus take-profit, time-decay, and stop-loss as backup
  • Auto-claim — automatically redeems resolved winning positions on-chain via Web3
  • Telegram control plane — full dashboard with PnL, active positions, whale status, manual sell buttons, and a kill switch
  • Wallet screener — offline forensic screener that discovered and qualified wallets from the Polymarket leaderboard. Started with 6,365 wallets → screened 2,303 → 72 passed (3.1% pass rate). Wilson confidence intervals on win rate, bankroll-proportional sizing gates, open-risk ratio caps, bot/dust filters.

The numbers (real, not backtested)

Metric Value
Starting bankroll $500
Realized PnL +$256.85
Total notional traded $391.31
Current free capital ~$577
Tracked wallets 7 (qualified through forensic screening)
Time running ~5 weeks

What went right

  • On-chain detection is a game changer. REST polling has 30-60s latency. On-chain WebSocket catches fills in 2-3s. That alone was worth the engineering effort.
  • The screening process is critical. My first set of wallets included some that looked amazing (90%+ win rate) but turned out to be resolution traders with 0% sell ratio, or had 60%+ of their capital locked in open positions. Removing bad wallets was more impactful than adding good ones.
  • Auto-claim is free money. Resolved positions just sit there if you don't claim them. The bot handles this automatically.

What went wrong

  • Gate tuning almost killed the bot. After swapping to my new screened wallets, the bot detected 69+ buy signals over 48 hours but executed zero trades. Every single one was rejected by safety gates that were too tight. Had to do a full forensic replay to figure out which gates were blocking profitable trades.
    • The lottery ticket gate (price < $0.05) was blocking high-asymmetry bets. One whale made +$860 on a $0.002 ceasefire bet that I blocked.
    • The slippage gate was set at 3 cents. But whales move thin order books — by the time I detect the fill, the ask has shifted 3-8 cents. Had to widen it.
  • Sizing bugs are expensive. At one point the bot submitted a buy order calculated from the ask price instead of the limit price. Target was $9, it filled for $18. That's the kind of thing that makes you appreciate test coverage.
  • "Ghost positions" are a real thing. After selling a position, the reconciliation loop would sometimes find leftover on-chain balance before settlement cleared and re-create a phantom position. Had to add exit cooldown timers.
  • V2 migration was painful. Polymarket migrated from USDC.e to pUSD in late April. Had to rewrite the collateral handling, update all contract addresses, and deal with operator approval gaps.

Biggest lesson

Your safety gates need to match your whale's strategy, not your assumptions. I assumed lottery tickets (sub-$0.05 bets) were garbage. My best whale's entire edge was buying $0.01-0.03 positions in event markets. 50-100x payout when they hit. The gate I thought was protecting me was actually blocking the most profitable strategy.

Architecture diagram (simplified)

Polygon WebSocket ──→ OrderFilled decode ──→ Whale filter
                                                  ↓
REST /activity ────→ Fill clustering ──→ 7-gate evaluation
                                                  ↓
                                         FAK taker order ──→ CLOB API
                                                  ↓
                               Telegram notification + state update
                                                  ↓
                          Exit engine (whale-mirror / TP / SL / decay)
                                                  ↓
                              Auto-claim resolved → pUSD recovered

Tech stack

  • Python 3.11, running on Windows 11 locally
  • py-clob-client-v2 SDK for Polymarket CLOB
  • web3.py for on-chain claims/approvals
  • websockets for BBO price cache + on-chain event subscriptions
  • Telegram Bot API for control plane
  • No database — single JSON state file with atomic writes
reddit.com
u/Upset-Fly-454 — 4 days ago

Anyone tracking PineBluff on Polycool? Guy is up 353k this week and has 73k betting against Jesus returning

Been messing around on Polycool recently trying to see if top wallets actually have a real strategy or if they just got lucky. Most of the leaderboard is just people who hit one massive bet and then slowly lose it all.

Then I found PineBluff. Rank 42 overall and up over 353k in the last 7 days.

I checked his open positions and the guy is holding a 73k bag on "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027" resolving to NO. I know it is basically free money but seeing 73k locked up on the rapture not happening had me dying. He is also down 43k on a Gen.G League of Legends match right now so his risk spread is pretty wild.

His consistency looks solid though. He mostly ignores the hype political narratives and just farms pricing inefficiencies in random categories. It feels way more calculated than emotional gambling.

Has anyone else been watching this account? Curious if he is just really good at category specialization or if this is some automated model farming slow markets.

u/AccountEngineer — 4 days ago
▲ 6 r/PredictionTrading+4 crossposts

We're working on a polymarket extension product and would love some feedback on the idea we have

Hey guys,

We've been working for some time on a polymarket extension product to help increase the expected value upside of any bets made. Would love some feedback on the concept if it is within this subreddit's rules to allow for such feedback.

Thanks

winpolymarket.com
u/demonshalo — 4 days ago

I built an app that lets you build a trading bot in minutes

It's free to try.

Spent a few months on this. Write a Python strategy in English, backtest it against Kalshi history in the app, then run it live from your Mac (keys stay in Keychain). Would love to get feedback on how i can improve it.

noncausal.ai

u/theirwinmango — 8 days ago
▲ 7 r/PredictionTrading+5 crossposts

we just launched Sigrex on Product Hunt today

it’s a trading automation platform built around signals
you can define, share, and execute signals in real time

would really appreciate any support or feedback 🙏

u/KuliOneR — 7 days ago

BREAKING: Israel's President Netanyahu says he wants US financial support to Israel to "draw down to zero."

What do you think?

u/Ok_Doctor_2817 — 10 days ago
▲ 3 r/PredictionTrading+1 crossposts

FTMO MT4 showing no connection. I'm using the windows version thru a VPS on my Mac M3 chip. I hv got good wifi and everything runs smoothly.

I have redownloaded and entered the right login details.

Scanned for new multiple times.

I have just switched from a laptop to this computer with my VPS

I have spoke with the VPS support and there are no errors.

What can I try and does anyone have any tips?

If someone can fix this for me there is a cash reward of 10 British pounds

u/No_Lie_1359 — 9 days ago
▲ 3 r/PredictionTrading+1 crossposts

Hey everyone,

We just launched a new explorer for prediction markets:

https://premarket.me/explorer

The idea is simple: instead of looking at prediction markets only as “events”, we look at them as tradable outcome tokens.

One token = one outcome.

Right now PreMarket supports 5 venues:

  • Polymarket
  • Opinion
  • PredictFun
  • Probable
  • Limitless

For every active market and every outcome token, we calculate:

  • Price change 1H — price movement over the last hour
  • Price change 24H — price movement over the last day
  • Price change 7D — price movement over the last week
  • Volume 24H
  • Volume 7D
  • Total volume
  • Liquidity — liquidity available in the order book
  • Open Interest — how many outcome tokens were issued
  • Spread — current order book spread
  • Traders — number of unique traders
  • Resolve date

The goal is to make prediction markets easier to scan like a real trading market: movers, liquidity, volume, spreads, open interest, and cross-platform discovery in one place.

Would love feedback from active prediction market users:

  • What metrics would you add?
  • What filters would be useful?
  • Which venues should we support next?

Explorer: https://premarket.me/explorer

u/Specific_Addendum_36 — 9 days ago

LOOKS WEIRD 🚨

A brand new wallet aped $10K into Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before the pump…

and turned it into $130,000+

The wallet : 0x73e237f9363d5397f47f3d5c6719bec5602613c3

u/Rich-Restaurant-6413 — 12 days ago
▲ 5 r/PredictionTrading+4 crossposts

Spent the day improving the Imali-Defi UI and stress testing the paper trading system as a solo developer building the platform from the ground up.

The bots have been extremely active today.

📈 Current paper trading stats:

✅ Win Rate: 92.7%
💰 Total Paper PnL: $1368.79
🤖 Multiple bots actively managing trades
🛡 Automated trailing stop protection locking gains
📊 AI confidence scores consistently reaching 90–97%

Some paper trade examples from today:

📈 TRX-USDT
+1.61% closed gain

📈 EOS-USDT
+1.54% closed gain

📈 ZRX-USDT
+1.25% closed gain

📈 XLM-USDT
+0.88% closed gain

📈 AVAX-USDT
+0.53% trailing stop protected exit

Current Imali ecosystem includes:

✅ Crypto Spot Bot
✅ Futures Trading Bot
✅ Stock Trading Bot
✅ DEX Sniper Bot
✅ Shared AI strategy engine across all systems

The platform currently uses:

- AI confidence scoring
- automated entries/exits
- trailing stop logic
- risk-weighted trade sizing
- beginner + advanced strategies
- paper trading before live trading

One of my biggest focuses lately has been improving the UI and onboarding flow for beginners because most trading platforms feel overwhelming to normal users.

The goal with Imali-Defi is simple:

Make automated trading easier to understand before people risk real money.

Still actively improving the system daily, but users are now connecting APIs, running paper trades, and testing the dashboard in real conditions.

Looking for a few more early access testers and feedback from other builders/traders.

https://imali-defi.com

reddit.com
u/Agile_Strategy_223 — 14 days ago