▲ 3 r/PredictionTrading+1 crossposts

Copy sim a Polymarket wallet with 960 resolved bets: he made +228%, a $500-per-trade copier made +122%

Ran a copy-sim on a wallet called cqk. 960 resolved positions, sitting on about $41k in open value right now. $500 per copied entry, 60 seconds behind his fill, last 180 days

His 5,671 fills collapse into 3,039 real positions. A copier only gets a shot at 2,119 of them. The other 920 had no price left in the one-minute window by the time the trade would've been visible. Put $500 on each fillable one, $1,059,500 deployed total, and you land at +122%. He made +228% on the same trades, same window. Average slippage alone was 1.13 cents a share.

About half his edge survives being copied. The rest is just being faster than everyone else reading the same tape.

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u/Secure-Trouble5522 — 2 days ago
▲ 5 r/algobetting+1 crossposts

Being a Polymarket shark today doesn’t mean you’ll be one next week

A trader can be a shark today and a fish next week

I’ve been tracking a strong Polymarket sports trader who just started losing heavily over the last week

This is why I believe SharkRadar needs to update every day.

Past performance ≠ future edge.

https://polymarket.com/@coltsmildx?tab=positions

u/Secure-Trouble5522 — 4 days ago

I simulated 10,000 wallets flipping coins. The top 10 look exactly like the screenshots on this sub

Every day there's a wallet here that turned $150 into $15k. So I ran a dumb test. 10,000 simulated wallets, $200 each, 300 trades, every trade a fair coin flip with 30% of bankroll staked. The chart is the top 10, plus 300 random ones in gray

The best coin flipper finished at $107k. The median wallet went to zero

Some big wallets here are probably genuinely good. The problem is a PnL screenshot can't separate them from my flippers, the shape is identical. The things that can: how many resolved bets the record actually covers, and what price they enter at. Anyone here check either before following a wallet?

https://preview.redd.it/6joxztioneih1.png?width=1350&format=png&auto=webp&s=b06d6188b989ffd6133c1e5a987b3e0a1ad8d8a9

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u/Secure-Trouble5522 — 11 days ago
▲ 2 r/WritingWithAI+1 crossposts

Claude code vs codex

I’ve been working with Claude Code and am thinking about trying Codex. I’d love to hear from people who have used Codex what’s your experience, and how does it compare to Claude Code?
And which plan you use?

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u/Secure-Trouble5522 — 22 days ago
▲ 8 r/algobetting+1 crossposts

People who tried following profitable Polymarket wallets did it actually work?

You can see everyone's positions on chain, and some wallets are clearly up a lot. So in theory you find the good ones and follow what they do. I'm building a small tool around this for myself, which is why I care about the honest answer and not the theory

Did anyone here actually try it? My worry is the edge mostly doesn't survive the copy: by the time you see the fill the price moved, or the wallet turns out to be a market maker whose "profit" you can't have

wdyt?

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u/Secure-Trouble5522 — 22 days ago