Kalshi vs polymarket
What is the difference? And what you recommended to use?
What is the difference? And what you recommended to use?
Ran a copy-sim on a wallet called cqk. 960 resolved positions, sitting on about $41k in open value right now. $500 per copied entry, 60 seconds behind his fill, last 180 days
His 5,671 fills collapse into 3,039 real positions. A copier only gets a shot at 2,119 of them. The other 920 had no price left in the one-minute window by the time the trade would've been visible. Put $500 on each fillable one, $1,059,500 deployed total, and you land at +122%. He made +228% on the same trades, same window. Average slippage alone was 1.13 cents a share.
About half his edge survives being copied. The rest is just being faster than everyone else reading the same tape.
A trader can be a shark today and a fish next week
I’ve been tracking a strong Polymarket sports trader who just started losing heavily over the last week
This is why I believe SharkRadar needs to update every day.
Past performance ≠ future edge.
Someone tried to use grok build? Fable finished way too fast
Every day there's a wallet here that turned $150 into $15k. So I ran a dumb test. 10,000 simulated wallets, $200 each, 300 trades, every trade a fair coin flip with 30% of bankroll staked. The chart is the top 10, plus 300 random ones in gray
The best coin flipper finished at $107k. The median wallet went to zero
Some big wallets here are probably genuinely good. The problem is a PnL screenshot can't separate them from my flippers, the shape is identical. The things that can: how many resolved bets the record actually covers, and what price they enter at. Anyone here check either before following a wallet?
I started to copy trade this trader few days ago after analyzing his performance, as you can see his portfolio dropped very quickly right after i started to follow him
I’ve been working with Claude Code and am thinking about trying Codex. I’d love to hear from people who have used Codex what’s your experience, and how does it compare to Claude Code?
And which plan you use?
You can see everyone's positions on chain, and some wallets are clearly up a lot. So in theory you find the good ones and follow what they do. I'm building a small tool around this for myself, which is why I care about the honest answer and not the theory
Did anyone here actually try it? My worry is the edge mostly doesn't survive the copy: by the time you see the fill the price moved, or the wallet turns out to be a market maker whose "profit" you can't have
wdyt?