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u/Euronotus

r/shutdownfullcast r/TropicalWeather
▲ 6 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southwestern Mexico

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the eastern Pacific. This system has not yet been designated as in investigation (invest) area by the National Hurricane Center. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not currently available.

A tropical wave positioned several hundred kilometers west of Panama is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico and will gradually turn west-northwestward over the next few days. Environmental conditions remain generally favorable, with moderate westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures and abundant atmospheric moisture. Model guidance suggests that the shear will decrease over the next few days, which should allow the disturbance to steadily develop into a tropical depression or storm by midweek.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 4 days ago
▲ 28 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical eastern Atlantic

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the tropical eastern Atlantic. This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area by the National Hurricane Center. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not currently available.

An elongated area of low pressure positioned a few hundred kilometers southwest of Cabo Verde is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is meandering north-northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over northern Africa. Although the disturbance is moving over a warm sea surface and the surrounding environment appears to be sufficiently moist, it is moving toward an area of much stronger westerly vertical wind shear and is unlikely to undergo significant development. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical depression will likely remain low for the next couple of days before sharply dropping to zero by midweek.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not currently available for this system.

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Observational history is not currently available for this system.

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u/Euronotus — 4 days ago
▲ 6 r/TropicalWeather

Rachel (18E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Rachel (18E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Rachel continues to slowly strengthen as it pulls farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. The storm’s vertical structure remains somewhat tilted; however its inner core has become better defined over the past several hours. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should allow Rachel to continue to strengthen as it moves westward. The storm is expected to reach Category 3 major hurricane intensity as it passes to the south of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday morning.

Large swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coasts of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Mountain Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #18

  • Current position: 19.6°N 109.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (295°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 165 km/h (90 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 964 millibars (28.47 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 2)

Relative position

  • 170 kilometers (106 miles) northeast of Socorro Island (Mexico)
  • 368 kilometers (229 miles) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 471 kilometers (293 miles) west-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Mountain Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC MST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 01 Oct 12:00 5AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 19.6 109.6
12 02 Oct 00:00 5PM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 19.7 110.1
24 02 Oct 12:00 5AM Fri Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 19.8 110.8
36 03 Oct 00:00 5PM Fri Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 20.0 111.5
48 03 Oct 12:00 5AM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 100 185 20.1 112.5
60 04 Oct 00:00 5PM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 95 175 20.3 113.6
72 04 Oct 12:00 5AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 90 165 20.4 114.7
96 05 Oct 12:00 5AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 20.5 117.2
120 06 Oct 12:00 5AM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 80 150 20.6 120.3

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 14 days ago
▲ 45 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay for potential re-development over the subtropical central Atlantic

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay (06L), which are active over the subtropical central Atlantic.

An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred kilometers to the south-southeast of Bermuda. The disturbance is moving north-northwestward through an unfavorable environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear and dry air, so significant development is not likely. Still, a non-zero chance exists that Fay could regenerate into a tropical depression or storm for a second time later this week.

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): low (10 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): low (10 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): very low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 14 days ago
▲ 1 r/TropicalWeather

Hanna (08L — Northern Atlantic) (Subtropical Central Atlantic)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Hanna (08L), which is active over the subtropical central Atlantic.

A trough of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers east-northeast of Bermuda became substantially better organized this morning, developing a closed low-level circulation and intensifying into a tropical storm. Hanna is moving eastward as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and will remain so until later in the week, when the steering environment is expected to weaken, causing the storm to meander southward. Environmental conditions are marginally supportive of development, with moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear, a moderately moist mid-level environment, and lukewarm sea-surface temperatures. Very little strengthening is expected, if at all. Hanna is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by midweek.

Latest observation

As of 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #1

  • Current position: 36.6°N 50.4°W
  • Forward movement: E (100°) at 28 km/h (15 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm ▲

Relative position

  • 1,388 kilometers (862 miles) east-northeast of St. George's, St. George's Parish (Bermuda)
  • 1,709 kilometers (1,062 miles) west-southwest of Ilha das Flores, Azores (Portugal)
  • 1,919 kilometers (1,192 miles) west-southwest of Horta, Azores (Portugal)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 8:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC AST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 28 Sep 12:00 8AM Mon Tropical Storm 40 75 36.6 50.4
12 29 Sep 00:00 8PM Mon Tropical Storm 40 75 36.1 47.7
24 29 Sep 12:00 8AM Tue Tropical Storm 40 75 34.8 45.1
36 30 Sep 00:00 8PM Tue Tropical Storm 40 75 33.9 43.8
48 30 Sep 12:00 8AM Wed Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 33.9 43.3
60 01 Oct 00:00 8PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 30 55 34.4 42.4
72 01 Oct 12:00 8AM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 35.3 40.7
96 02 Oct 12:00 8AM Fri Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 17 days ago
▲ 7 r/TropicalWeather

Rachel (18E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Rachel (18E), which is active over the eastern Pacific off the coast of southern Mexico.

Though satellite imagery analysis indicates that a newly-formed depression positioned off the coast of southern Mexico remains somewhat poorly organized, but is now producing tropical storm-force winds. Tropical Storm Rachel is moving through a generally favorable environment and will continue to steadily strengthen as it moves west-northwestward, remaining off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #3

  • Current position: 12.6°N 99.1°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (290°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm ▲

Relative position

  • 424 kilometers (263 miles) south-southwest of Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca (Mexico)
  • 480 kilometers (298 miles) south-southeast of Acapulco, Guerrero (Mexico)
  • 580 kilometers (360 miles) southwest of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 27 Sep 18:00 12PM Sun Tropical Storm 35 65 12.6 99.1
12 28 Sep 06:00 12AM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 45 85 13.1 99.9
24 28 Sep 18:00 12PM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 13.9 101.6
36 29 Sep 06:00 12AM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 14.9 103.3
48 29 Sep 18:00 12PM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 15.8 105.0
60 30 Sep 06:00 12AM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 16.8 106.5
72 30 Sep 18:00 12PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 17.7 107.6
96 01 Oct 18:00 12PM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 18.7 108.9
120 02 Oct 18:00 12PM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) 85 155 19.3 109.4

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 18 days ago
▲ 10 r/TropicalWeather

18E (Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (18E), which is active over the eastern Pacific off the coast of southern Mexico.

An area of low pressure situated off the coast of southern Mexico has become better organized this evening. Recent scatterometer data reveals that the disturbance has developed a closed low-level circulation and is producing maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (35 miles per hour). The newly-formed depression is moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which is centered over Mexico. This ridge is expected to remain in place for the next few days, keeping the cyclone offshore for the next several days.

Environmental conditions remain favorable and should lead to steady development over the next few days. This system is likely to become a tropical storm by Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 AM Central Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #1

  • Current position: 12.2°N 99.1°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (285°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Depression ▲

Relative position

  • 462 kilometers (287 miles) south-southwest of Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca (Mexico)
  • 524 kilometers (326 miles) south-southeast of Acapulco, Guerrero (Mexico)
  • 612 kilometers (380 miles) southwest of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 12:00 AM Central Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 27 Sep 06:00 12AM Sun Tropical Depression 30 55 12.2 99.1
12 27 Sep 18:00 12PM Sun Tropical Depression 30 55 12.7 99.6
24 28 Sep 06:00 12AM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 13.2 100.8
36 28 Sep 18:00 12PM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 45 85 13.8 102.2
48 29 Sep 06:00 12AM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 14.7 104.1
60 29 Sep 18:00 12PM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 15.7 105.9
72 30 Sep 06:00 12AM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 16.9 107.7
96 01 Oct 06:00 12AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 18.7 109.6
120 02 Oct 06:00 12AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 19.7 110.3

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 18 days ago
▲ 5 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance situated over the east-central Pacific, far to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

An area of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers east of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain favorable for development and a tropical depression or storm could form by the middle of the upcoming week. The disturbance is moving eastward to east-northwestward along the base of an upper-level trough positioned over the eastern Pacific to the northeast of the disturbance.

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Mon): low (20 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Fri): high (70 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Mon): low (7 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through Fri): low (38 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 19 days ago
▲ 12 r/TropicalWeather

Gonzalo (07L — Northern Atlantic) (Near Cabo Verde)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (07L), which is active over the tropical eastern Pacific to the north of Cabo Verde.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to struggle against strong southwesterly vertical wind shear this morning. The storm will likely stop producing deep convection later this evening and degenerating into a remnant low. The storm is moving north-northwestward away from Cabo Verde along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over western Africa. What remains of Gonzalo will turn westward on Tuesday as the ridge builds to its north. Gonzalo is expected to dissipate by midweek.

Latest observation

As of 2:00 PM Cape Verde Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #7

  • Current position: 18.8°N 23.0°W
  • Forward movement: NNW (345°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 434 kilometers (270 miles) north of Praia, Cabo Verde

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 11:00 AM Cape Verde Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CVT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 26 Sep 12:00 11AM Sat Tropical Storm 35 65 18.8 23.0
12 27 Sep 00:00 11PM Sat Remnant Low ▼ 30 55 19.8 23.2
24 27 Sep 12:00 11AM Sun Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 20.6 23.6
36 28 Sep 00:00 11PM Sun Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 21.2 23.9
48 28 Sep 12:00 11AM Mon Remnant Low 20 35 21.5 24.1
60 29 Sep 00:00 11PM Mon Remnant Low 20 35 21.7 24.5
72 29 Sep 12:00 11AM Tue Remnant Low 20 35 21.8 25.2
96 30 Sep 12:00 11AM Wed Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 20 days ago
▲ 5 r/TropicalWeather

01B (Northern Indian) (Northwestern Bay of Bengal)

Latest observation

Last updated: Thursday, 24 September — 8:30 AM India Standard Time (IST; 03:00 UTC)

Observed information

Source: JTWC Warning #6

  • Current position: 18.1°N 83.7°E
  • Forward movement: NW (315°) at 2 km/h (1 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 987 millibars (29.15 inches)
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm
  • Intensity (IMD): Depression

Relative position

  • 30 kilometers (19 miles) of Vizianagaram, Andhra Pradesh (India)
  • 31 kilometers (19 miles) of Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh (India)
  • 69 kilometers (43 miles) of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh (India)

Official forecasts

India Meteorological Department

Last updated: Wednesday, 23 September — 11:30 PM IST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
— — UTC IST IMD — knots km/h °N °E
00 23 Sep 18:00 11PM Wed Depression . 35 65 18.2 83.9
06 24 Sep 00:00 5AM Thu Depression ▼ 30 60 18.5 83.5
18 24 Sep 12:00 5PM Thu Depression . 30 55 18.9 83.3
30 25 Sep 00:00 5AM Fri Depression · 30 55 19.4 83.1
42 25 Sep 12:00 5PM Fri Depression ▼ 25 50 20.0 82.9
54 26 Sep 00:00 5AM Sat Well Marked Low Pressure Area · 25 45 20.7 82.7

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Thursday, 24 September — 5:30 AM IST (00:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
— — UTC IST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Sep 00:00 5AM Thu Tropical Storm · 35 65 18.1 83.7
12 24 Sep 12:00 5PM Thu Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 19.1 83.1
24 25 Sep 00:00 5AM Fri Tropical Depression ▼ 25 45 20.1 82.7

Official information

India Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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u/Euronotus — 21 days ago
▲ 6 r/TropicalWeather

Surigae (25W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Typhoon Surigae (25W), which is active over the western Pacific near the Ryukyu Islands.

Typhoon Surigae continues to slowly strengthen as it lingers to the southeast of the southern Ryukyu Islands this evening. Though the storm’s low-level circulation remains well-defined, its vertical structure and eyewall remain poorly organized, hindering its intensification. Environmental conditions remain highly favorable for further development and once the storm develops a more organized eyewall, it will begin to strengthen, reaching its peak on Monday morning. Surigae will turn northeastward this weekend, remaining east of the Ryukyu Islands and south of mainland Japan.

Latest observation

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 23.3°N 126.9°E
  • Forward movement: N (15°) at 4 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 130 km/h (70 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 981 millibars (28.97 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Hurricane (Category 1)
  • Intensity (JMA): Severe Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 229 kilometers (142 miles) southeast of Miyako-jima, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 280 kilometers (174 miles) east of Ishigaki, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 333 kilometers (207 miles) south of Naha, Okinawa (Japan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 26 Sep 18:00 3AM Sun Severe Tropical Storm 65 120 24.0 127.4
12 27 Sep 06:00 3PM Sun Typhoon ▲ 75 140 25.0 128.1
24 27 Sep 18:00 3AM Mon Typhoon ▲ 80 150 25.9 129.4
48 28 Sep 18:00 3AM Tue Typhoon ▼ 75 140 27.4 132.2
72 29 Sep 18:00 3AM Wed Typhoon 75 140 28.1 134.4
96 30 Sep 18:00 3AM Thu Typhoon ▼ 70 130 29.3 136.0
120 01 Oct 18:00 3AM Fri Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 65 120 32.0 139.8

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 26 Sep 12:00 9PM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) 70 130 23.3 126.9
12 26 Sep 00:00 9AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 24.3 127.4
24 27 Sep 12:00 9PM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 25.3 128.5
36 27 Sep 00:00 9AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 26.5 130.1
48 28 Sep 12:00 9PM Mon Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 80 150 27.5 131.8
60 28 Sep 00:00 9AM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 28.5 133.4
72 29 Sep 12:00 9PM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 29.5 135.2
96 30 Sep 12:00 9PM Wed Tropical Storm ▼ 60 110 31.5 138.7
120 01 Oct 12:00 9PM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 33.7 142.8

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

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u/Euronotus — 21 days ago
▲ 20 r/TropicalWeather

Nolo (15E — Central Pacific) (South of Hawaiʻi)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Nolo (15E), which is active over the central Pacific just south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane Nolo continues to struggle against easterly shear and dry air this morning as it meanders south of the Big Island. The storm is slowly moving westward as a mid-level ridge positioned to the north of the islands begins to build southward. As Nolo accelerates westward, environmental conditions will improve, allowing the storm to strengthen into a Category 3 major hurricane after passing to the south of the Big Island. Nolo will pass well to the south of the rest of the islands on Sunday and will turn northwestward on Monday, remaining far to the west of the islands through midweek.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #24A

  • Current position: 16.8°N 155.7°W
  • Forward movement: W (270°) at 3 knots (3 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 85 knots (100 mph) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 977 millibars (28.85 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 2) ▼

Relative position

  • 146 miles (235 kilometers) south of Ka Lae, Hawaii
  • 198 miles (318 kilometers) south-southeast of Kailua-Kona, Hawaii
  • 206 miles (331 kilometers) south of Hilo, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 26 Sep 12:00 2AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) 90 105 16.9 155.5
12 27 Sep 00:00 2PM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 110 16.9 156.2
24 27 Sep 12:00 2AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 120 16.8 157.8
36 28 Sep 00:00 2PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 115 130 16.8 159.7
48 28 Sep 12:00 2AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 120 140 17.7 161.5
60 29 Sep 00:00 2PM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 125 19.3 163.0
72 29 Sep 12:00 2AM Tue Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 95 110 21.0 163.9
96 30 Sep 12:00 2AM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 65 75 23.3 165.3
120 01 Oct 12:00 2AM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 60 70 23.5 168.0

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 21 days ago
▲ 7 r/TropicalWeather

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 21-27 September 2026

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 21-27 September 2026

Active cyclones

As of 8:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time (12:30 UTC) on Tuesday:

Northern Atlantic

  • Tropical Storm Fay continues to gradually weaken as unfavorably strong shear strips the storm of its convection. Fay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low as it drifts farther southwestward over the next several hours and will ultimately dissipate before the end of the week. This system is not expected to impact land.

Eastern Pacific

  • Tropical Storm Odalys continues to gradually strengthen as it moves northeastward across the eastern Pacific this morning. The storm is expected to reach hurricane intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours but is not expected to undergo significant development for long, as it is moving toward cooler waters and a drier and more stable environment off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Odalys may enter a brief binary interaction with Polo later this week.

  • Hurricane Polo continues to rapidly intensify off the coast of southern Mexico this morning. The storm has reached Category 5 hurricane intensity and is likely to reach its peak intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours before easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear begins to increase. This system is expected to remain offshore as it turns sharply northwestward over the next couple of days, but tropical storm conditions are still possible along the coasts of Michoacán and Guerrero starting Wednesday and continuing into the end of the week.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Central Pacific

  • The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, which are situated to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, are likely to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. This disturbance could bring heavy rain and strong winds to the islands before the end of the week but there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the timing and extent of any potential direct impacts.

Western Pacific

  • An area of low pressure (Invest 91W), which is situated just west of Guam, is likely to become a tropical depression or storm within the next couple of days. This system is likely to undergo significant development as it moves west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea over the next few days.

Northern Indian

  • An area of low pressure (Invest 95B), which is situated over the northwestern Bay of Bengal, may become a tropical depression or storm within the next couple of days. This system has a small window of opportunity to develop and strengthen before making landfall along the coast of northeastern India within the next few days.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • Severe Tropical Storm Dujuan is undergoing extratropical transition far to the east-southeast of mainland Japan. The storm is moving away from Japan into the colder open waters of the northern Pacific.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northern Atlantic

  • A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the coast of western Africa over the next few days. Environmental conditions over the eastern tropical Atlantic do not appear to be supportive of further development; however, there is a small chance that this disturbance could consolidate sufficiently to become a short-lived tropical depression or storm within the next several days.

Eastern Pacific

  • An area of low pressure may form off the coast of southern Mexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions over the eastern Pacific remain favorable and should allow this system to become a tropical depression or storm later this week or over the upcoming weekend. Model guidance suggests that this system will move west-northwestward along the southwestern coast of Mexico but the timing and extent of any potential impacts this system may bring to southern or southwestern Mexico remains unclear.

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u/Euronotus — 23 days ago
▲ 51 r/TropicalWeather

Polo (17E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

Storm overview

This discussion for Hurricane Polo (17E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Polo remains a powerful hurricane as it makes its anticipated northeastward turn toward the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions remain favorable enough that the storm is not likely to weaken much before it makes landfall on Monday afternoon. Polo is expected to bring strong winds to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next couple of days, as well as heavy rain which will spread to the southwestern and southern United States later this week.

Latest observation

As of 2:00 PM Mountain Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #29

  • Current position: 21.9°N 114.1°W
  • Forward movement: N (355°) at 19 km/h (10 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 205 km/h (110 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 951 millibars (28.09 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲

Relative position

  • 380 kilometers (236 miles) south-southwest of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 399 kilometers (248 miles) north of Clarion Island (Mexico)
  • 444 kilometers (276 miles) west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 11:00 AM Mountain Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC MST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 27 Sep 18:00 11AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) 110 205 21.9 114.1
12 28 Sep 06:00 11PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) 110 205 23.2 114.0
24 28 Sep 18:00 11AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 105 195 25.0 113.0
36 29 Sep 06:00 11PM Mon Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 27.0 111.3
48 29 Sep 18:00 11AM Tue Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 29.9 108.7
60 30 Sep 06:00 11PM Tue Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 24 days ago
▲ 11 r/TropicalWeather

Odalys (16E — Eastern Pacific) (Far to the southwest of Mexico)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Odalys (16E), which is active over the eastern Pacific far to the southwest of the Baja California Peninsula.

Hurricane Odalys is rapidly weakening as it struggles against an abrupt increase in southerly vertical wind shear. The storm is getting pulled northward by an upper-level trough positioned to the northwest and will continue moving in this direction until a combination of strong shear, dry air, and cooler waters cause it to degenerate into a remnant low by Monday. What remains of the storm on Monday will turn sharply southward as its shallower convective structure becomes embedded within northerly flow around a low-level ridge positioned to the northwest.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #27

  • Current position: 19.8°N 123.7°W
  • Forward movement: N (360°) at 11 km/h (6 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 165 km/h (90 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 965 millibars (28.50 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 2) ▼

Relative position

  • 957 kilometers (595 miles) west of Clarion Island (Mexico)
  • 1,259 kilometers (782 miles) southwest of Bahía Ascunción, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 1,288 kilometers (800 miles) southwest of Punta Abreojos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PDT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 26 Sep 12:00 5AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 19.8 123.7
12 27 Sep 00:00 5PM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 20.7 123.6
24 27 Sep 12:00 5AM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 21.9 123.3
36 28 Sep 00:00 5PM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 40 75 22.6 123.0
48 28 Sep 12:00 5AM Mon Remnant Low ▼ 30 55 22.4 122.6
60 29 Sep 00:00 5PM Mon Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 21.7 122.3
72 29 Sep 12:00 5AM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 20.5 122.0
96 30 Sep 12:00 5AM Wed Remnant Low 20 35 19.0 122.1
120 01 Oct 12:00 5AM Thu Dissipated ▼ 0 0 0 0

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 25 days ago
▲ 26 r/TropicalWeather

Fay (06L — Northern Atlantic) (Southwest of Azores)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Fay (06L), which is active over the central subtropical Atlantic far to the east of Bermuda.

Although Tropical Depression Fay continues to struggle against strong shear and dry air, it has not undergone any significant changes in strength or structure this afternoon. The depression will slowly weaken as it moves southward later today and will turn southwestward on Monday as its convective structure becomes shallower and increasingly embedded within low-level trade wind flow. The depression will eventually stop producing thunderstorms and degenerate into a remnant low while still far to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Greenwich Mean Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #26

  • Current position: 29.6°N 44.0°W
  • Forward movement: WSW (240°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Depression ▼

Relative position

  • 1,992 kilometers (1,238 miles) east of St. George's, St. George's Parish (Bermuda)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 12:00 PM Greenwich Mean Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC GMT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 26 Sep 12:00 12PM Sat Tropical Depression 30 55 29.6 44.0
12 27 Sep 00:00 12AM Sun Tropical Depression 30 55 29.5 44.1
24 27 Sep 12:00 12PM Sun Tropical Depression ▼ 25 45 28.8 44.2
36 28 Sep 00:00 12AM Mon Tropical Depression 25 45 27.9 44.2
48 28 Sep 12:00 12PM Mon Tropical Depression ▲ 30 55 26.8 44.5
60 29 Sep 00:00 12AM Tue Tropical Depression 30 55 25.4 45.4
72 29 Sep 12:00 12PM Tue Tropical Depression 30 55 24.2 46.7
96 30 Sep 12:00 12PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 23.0 50.6
120 01 Oct 12:00 12PM Thu Dissipated ▼ 0 0 0 0

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 25 days ago
▲ 3 r/TropicalWeather

99E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

Disturbance overview

As of 5:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (00:00 UTC) on Friday:

This discussion is for a disturbance over the eastern Pacific. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure situated far off the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The disturbance is moving northwestward along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over the southern United States. Over the next few days, this system will gradually turn northward as a mid-level low off the coast of California weakens the steering ridge.

The disturbance is moving through a favorable environment characterized by weak easterly vertical wind shear, a very warm sea surface, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. The disturbance is expected to gradually consolidate and may become a tropical depression or storm by early next week and continue to strengthen as it nears the coast of Mexico later in the week. It remains too early to determine the exact timing or extent of any potential impacts to the southern or southwestern coasts of Mexico.

Observed information

  • Current position: 8.4°N 105.7°W
  • Forward movement: NW (335°) at 14 km/h (8 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) ▼

Relative position

  • 1,128 kilometers (701 miles) south of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán (Mexico)
  • 1,133 kilometers (704 miles) south-southwest of Acapulco, Guerrero (Mexico)
  • 1,186 kilometers (737 miles) south of Tecomán, Colima (Mexico)

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Sun): medium (40 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Thu): high (80 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Sun): low (31 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Thu): high (86 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 26 days ago
▲ 7 r/TropicalWeather

Dujuan (24W — Western Pacific) (Southeast of Japan)

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Monday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 33.7°N 139.8°E
  • Forward movement: NNE (40°) at 16 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 130 km/h (70 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 971 millibars (28.67 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Hurricane (Category 1) ▲
  • Intensity (JMA): Typhoon ▲

Relative position

  • 66 kilometers (41 miles) north of Hachijō, Tokyo (Japan)
  • 155 kilometers (96 miles) southeast of Itō, Shizuoka (Japan)
  • 161 kilometers (100 miles) south-southeast of Miura, Kanagawa (Japan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 6:00 PM Japan Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Monday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 21 Sep 09:00 6PM Mon Typhoon 75 140 34.4 140.9
12 21 Sep 21:00 6AM Tue Typhoon 75 140 37.0 145.4
24 22 Sep 09:00 6PM Tue Typhoon ▼ 70 130 39.1 151.8
45 23 Sep 06:00 3PM Wed Extratropical Cyclone -- 41.6 164.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Monday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 21 Sep 06:00 3PM Mon Hurricane (Category 1) 70 130 33.7 139.8
12 21 Sep 18:00 3AM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 36.2 143.9
24 22 Sep 06:00 3PM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 38.4 149.6
36 22 Sep 18:00 3AM Wed Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 55 100 39.9 156.1

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

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u/Euronotus — 27 days ago
▲ 20 r/TropicalWeather

98L (Invest — Northern Atlantic) (East-southeast of Bermuda)

Disturbance overview

As of 2:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

This discussion is for a disturbance situated a few hundred kilometers east of Bermuda. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the disturbance has become less organized over the past several hours as deep convection has decreased, leaving behind an exposed low-level swirl of clouds. The disturbance is moving very slowly westward toward Bermuda, but is unlikely to actually reach the islands as it remains embedded within a complex steering environment, pinned between a ridge to the northeast and a second ridge to the southwest. There remains a high degree of uncertainty which of these will become the dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, resulting in a large split in model guidance, with some models favoring a northward turn and others favoring a southward turn.

Although the disturbance is situated over a warm sea-surface, atmospheric conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable over the next few days, with increasing northeasterly vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and increasing upper-level convergence. Thus, the potential for this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next seven days continues to decrease and is now low (30 percent).

Observed information

  • Current position: 33.0°N 59.7°W
  • Forward movement: W (270°) at 8 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1020 millibars (30.12 inches) ▲

Relative position

  • 471 kilometers (293 miles) east-northeast of St. George's, St. George's Parish (Bermuda)
  • 1,678 kilometers (1,043 miles) north of The Valley, Anguilla (United Kingdom)
  • 1,721 kilometers (1,069 miles) north of Codrington, Barbuda (Antigua and Barbuda)

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): low (20 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): low (30 percent) ▼

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): very low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/Euronotus — 29 days ago
▲ 12 r/TropicalWeather

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 14-20 September 2026

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 14-20 September 2026

Active cyclones

As of 8:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (00:30 UTC) on Tuesday:

Western Pacific Ocean

  • 24W: Twenty-four (no discussion yet)

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Arabian Sea

  • 94A: Invest (no discussion yet)

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Central Pacific Ocean

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Western Pacific Ocean

  • An area of low pressure may develop over the central or eastern Philippine Sea near the Northern Marianas Islands over the upcoming weekend. This disturbance has not yet formed and the JTWC has not yet designated it as an investigation area. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable and may allow for limited development. This system currently has a low (10 percent) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, and the likeliest time frame for development would be sometime between Sunday and Tuesday of the upcoming week.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • A tropical wave situated over the east-central Pacific—several hundred miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands—is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system does not yet have a closed low-level circulation and the NHC has not yet designated it as an investigation area. Environmental conditions are marginally supportive of development and limited development is possible as the disturbance moves westward over the upcoming weekend. This system currently has a low (20 percent) of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, and the likeliest time frame for development would be midway through the upcoming week or later.

  • An area of low pressure may develop far off the coast of southwestern Mexico by the end of the week. This disturbance has not yet formed and the NHC has not yet designated it as an investigation area. Environmental conditions remain generally favorable over this region and should support gradual development as the disturbance moves northward or northwestward. This system currently has a moderate (50 percent) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, and the likeliest time frame for development would be over the upcoming weekend or early next week.

  • A small area of low pressure situated over the Gulf of California is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The NHC has not yet designated this system as an investigation area. A marginally favorable environment combined with the disturbance’s close proximity to land on both sides should limit development; however, a tropical depression or storm could still form within the next couple of days. This system currently has a low (10 percent) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, and the likeliest time frame for development would be before the end of the week.

Northern Indian Ocean

  • An area of low pressure may develop over the northeastern or eastern Bay of Bengal late in the week or over the upcoming weekend. This disturbance has not yet formed and the JTWC has not yet designated it as an investigation area. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable and moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear may severely limit development despite a warm sea surface and abundant atmospheric moisture. This system currently has a low (30 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, and the likeliest time frame for development would be over the upcoming weekend or early next week.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

  • A trough of low pressure situated over the central subtropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance has not yet developed a closed low-level circulation and the NHC has not yet designated it as an investigation area. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable but forecast to become slightly supportive over the next few days and could allow this system to become a tropical depression or storm later this week. This system currently has a low (30 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, and the likeliest time frame for development would be late in the week.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

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u/Euronotus — 29 days ago