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r/TropicalWeather

▲ 28 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical eastern Atlantic

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the tropical eastern Atlantic. This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area by the National Hurricane Center. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not currently available.

An elongated area of low pressure positioned a few hundred kilometers southwest of Cabo Verde is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is meandering north-northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over northern Africa. Although the disturbance is moving over a warm sea surface and the surrounding environment appears to be sufficiently moist, it is moving toward an area of much stronger westerly vertical wind shear and is unlikely to undergo significant development. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical depression will likely remain low for the next couple of days before sharply dropping to zero by midweek.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not currently available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not currently available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is not currently available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

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u/Euronotus — 4 days ago
▲ 154 r/TropicalWeather

Typhoon Koguma (2026) has a Near-Perfect Overall Shape!

This Satellite image of Typhoon Koguma was taken at October 10th 08:50PM (22° 41'N, 149° 48' E). With Wind speeds of 130 mph (Category 4 Typhoon) and a Barometric Pressure of 945 millibars.

u/Fuzzy-Meringue-9406 — 5 days ago
▲ 6 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southwestern Mexico

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the eastern Pacific. This system has not yet been designated as in investigation (invest) area by the National Hurricane Center. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not currently available.

A tropical wave positioned several hundred kilometers west of Panama is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico and will gradually turn west-northwestward over the next few days. Environmental conditions remain generally favorable, with moderate westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures and abundant atmospheric moisture. Model guidance suggests that the shear will decrease over the next few days, which should allow the disturbance to steadily develop into a tropical depression or storm by midweek.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not yet available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not yet available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Individual models

PolarWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

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Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

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u/Euronotus — 4 days ago
▲ 15 r/TropicalWeather

Counting down to the EPAC ACE Record .....

The EPAC ACE record of 319.26 from 2018 could fall in the next couple of days.

The most recent update has 2026 EPAC ACE at 307.9.

Rachel has maybe 1.5 ACE left in the tank leaving us 10 shy and if Simon holds to the forecast or exceeds it, then it seems that's enough to get 2026 over the top.

The strong El Nino stereotype is emerging in the statistics.

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u/ClimateMessiah — 5 days ago
▲ 45 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay for potential re-development over the subtropical central Atlantic

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay (06L), which are active over the subtropical central Atlantic.

An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred kilometers to the south-southeast of Bermuda. The disturbance is moving north-northwestward through an unfavorable environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear and dry air, so significant development is not likely. Still, a non-zero chance exists that Fay could regenerate into a tropical depression or storm for a second time later this week.

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): low (10 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): low (10 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): very low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not currently available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not currently available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is not currently available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

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Other types of model guidance

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u/Euronotus — 14 days ago
▲ 6 r/TropicalWeather

Rachel (18E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Rachel (18E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Rachel continues to slowly strengthen as it pulls farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. The storm’s vertical structure remains somewhat tilted; however its inner core has become better defined over the past several hours. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should allow Rachel to continue to strengthen as it moves westward. The storm is expected to reach Category 3 major hurricane intensity as it passes to the south of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday morning.

Large swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coasts of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Mountain Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #18

  • Current position: 19.6°N 109.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (295°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 165 km/h (90 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 964 millibars (28.47 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 2)

Relative position

  • 170 kilometers (106 miles) northeast of Socorro Island (Mexico)
  • 368 kilometers (229 miles) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 471 kilometers (293 miles) west-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Mountain Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC MST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 01 Oct 12:00 5AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 19.6 109.6
12 02 Oct 00:00 5PM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 19.7 110.1
24 02 Oct 12:00 5AM Fri Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 19.8 110.8
36 03 Oct 00:00 5PM Fri Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 20.0 111.5
48 03 Oct 12:00 5AM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 100 185 20.1 112.5
60 04 Oct 00:00 5PM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 95 175 20.3 113.6
72 04 Oct 12:00 5AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 90 165 20.4 114.7
96 05 Oct 12:00 5AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 20.5 117.2
120 06 Oct 12:00 5AM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 80 150 20.6 120.3

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

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Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

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u/Euronotus — 14 days ago