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u/giantspeck

r/Hawaii r/TropicalWeather r/sailing
▲ 10 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southern Mexico

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for an area of potential development off the coast of southern Mexico.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system as Disturbance 2.
  • A disturbance has not yet formed and has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not yet available for this system.
  • This post will not be updated regularly, but will be replaced if this system is designated as an investigation area, upgraded to a tropical cyclone, or removed from the NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

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u/giantspeck — 5 days ago
▲ 15 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system as Disturbance 1.
  • A disturbance has not yet formed and has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not yet available for this system.
  • This post will not be updated regularly, but will be replaced if this system is designated as an investigation area, upgraded to a tropical cyclone, or removed from the NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

Official information

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u/giantspeck — 5 days ago
▲ 82 r/Hawaii

Tropical Weather Watch: Lala (01C)

Discussion

Last updated: Friday, August 14 — 10:00 AM

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Tropical Storm Lala has maintained strength throughout the overnight and early morning hours as it continues to move west-northwestward toward the Big Island. Animated infrared imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the storm’s structure remains somewhat asymmetrical, with the bulk of the deep convection and strongest winds displaced to the north and northeast of the low-level center. Data collected by a recent Hurricane Hunters mission suggests that the storm’s wind field is contracting, meaning that the storm is becoming more compact and may be preparing to restrengthen.

Lala continues to move west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned well to the north of the islands. This ridge is expected to remain in place for the next several days, keeping the storm on its current track. Lala is forecast to reach the lower part of the Big Island during the mid- to late-afternoon hours on Saturday. Land interaction may cause brief shifts in the track, but otherwise, the storm is expected to remain on a generally west-northwestward track that will take it south of Maui on Saturday evening and south of Oʻahu on Sunday morning.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development. A combination of weak shear, warm waters, and sufficient moisture should allow Lala to reach hurricane strength prior to making landfall on the Big Island. Land interaction is likely to cause some disruption to the storm’s convective structure, which should allow an upper-level low over the islands to further disrupt the storm with increased shear and impart drier air into its circulation. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast remains conservative and only slightly weakens the storm as it passes to the south of the smaller islands from Saturday afternoon onward.

This weakening may be brief, as environmental conditions to the southwest of the islands remain favorable and should allow Lala to restrengthen as it passes well to the west-southwest of Kauai early next week. This will likely allow Lala to regain hurricane strength as it moves away from the islands.

Impacts

Heavy rain and flooding

The bulk of the storm’s heavy rain remains on the north side of its circulation, meaning that most of the islands will see some heavy rain over the next few days. The Big Island and Maui are likely to take the brunt of this rainfall, with 8 to 12 inches expected on Saturday and Sunday. Some areas of the Big Island could see upwards of 25 inches of rain, especially in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected over the rest of the islands through early Monday, with some areas in higher terrain seeing upwards of 8 inches of rain.

This heavy rain is likely to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

Strong winds

The strongest winds associated with Lala remain on the north side of its circulation. The Big Island will see the strongest winds, with hurricane conditions starting on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions will reach Maui on Saturday night and are possible over Oahu and Kauai by Sunday morning.

It is important to note that upslope areas and mountain tops on the Big Island are likely to see much stronger winds than the surface-level winds depicted in the official forecast. In some cases, sustained winds and gusts may be up to 30 percent stronger than what is depicted in the forecast.

Storm surge

Dangerous storm surge will coincide with the tides and cause normally dry areas along the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Storm surge will be most severe along the coast of the Big Island, with 1 to 3 feet of coastal inundation possible.

Dangerous surf conditions

Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Lala will reach the east-facing shores of the islands today and will continue to create dangerous and even life-threatening surf conditions, including rip currents, over the upcoming weekend.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, August 14 — 10:00 AM

Observed information

  • Current position: 17.0°N 15.03°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (290°) at 12 mph ▲
  • Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 997 millibars ▼

Relative position

  • 366 miles east-southeast of Hilo
  • 416 miles east-southeast of Kailua-Kona
  • 485 miles east-southeast of Kahului

Quick forecast - Next 48 hours

  • 2PM Fri: 60 miles per hour ▲
  • 2AM Sat: 65 miles per hour ▲
  • 2PM Sat: 75 miles per hour ▲ (Landfall on Big Island around 3PM-5PM)
  • 2AM Sun: 75 miles per hour
  • 2PM Sun: 70 miles per hour ▼

Resources

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u/giantspeck — 7 days ago
▲ 31 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean

Moderator note

  • This system has been designated as Invest 94L.
  • A new discussion for Invest 94L has been posted here.

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u/giantspeck — 8 days ago
▲ 52 r/Hawaii

Tropical Weather Watch: Invest 93C

Discussion

Last updated: Wednesday, August 12 — 12:00 PM

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure situated nearly 900 miles east-southeast of Hilo has become better organized this morning. Animated infrared imagery depicts poorly organized deep convection wrapping into a poorly defined low-level circulation center. Recent scatterometer data reveals that the disturbance’s circulation remains too elongated to allow this system to be classified as a full-fledged tropical cyclone. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that the disturbance’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 miles per hour, or tropical storm strength.

The disturbance is moving generally westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned well to the north of the Hawaiian islands. This ridge is expected to remain generally in the same place over the next several days and will push this system onto a west-northwestward track later today. Track uncertainty remains high as the disturbance lacks a well-organized low-level circulation; however, most forecast models are in general agreement that this system will reach the islands this weekend. The latest official forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) projects that this system will reach the Big Island during the early morning hours on Saturday and will pass closely to the south of the rest of the islands.

Environmental conditions remain favorable and will support gradual development over the next few days. A combination of weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and abundant mid-level moisture should allow this system to become better organized and become a tropical storm later today. Gradual intensification will continue as the storm nears the Big Island; the latest forecast calls for the storm to reach a peak intensity of 70 miles per hour before landfall on Saturday morning, with some weakening expected due to interaction with the island’s mountainous terrain.

A note about this system’s designation

The CPHC designated this system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C (01C) earlier this morning and maintains this designation for now. The agency has not yet upgraded this system to a tropical storm but expects to do so later today. Because this system formed wholly within the central Pacific, it will be assigned the name Lala. Cyclones which form in this region are assigned names from a separate list from the eastern Pacific.

What is a potential tropical cyclone?

A potential tropical cyclone is a tropical disturbance which is both 1) likely to develop into a tropical cyclone and 2) close enough to a coastline that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 72 hours. The National Hurricane Center began designating disturbances which met these criteria in 2017 in order to give the general public more time to prepare for tropical storms before they develop.

This is the first time that the designation has been used in the central Pacific (i.e., west of 140°W) for a tropical disturbance which is expected to impact Hawaiʻi.

Impacts

Too early to tell

It remains too early to determine the exact timing and extent of potential impacts to the islands, but it is becoming increasingly clear that this system will bring some impacts to the islands over the upcoming weekend. The timing and severity of these impacts will depend on the storm’s path and its forward speed. Interaction with the terrain of the Big Island may drastically affect impacts on the rest of the islands.

Heavy rain and strong winds will likely reach the Big Island on Friday and will spread westward over the next couple of days, reaching Maui on Saturday, and the rest of the islands on Sunday. Heavy rain may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas of higher and steeper terrain.

Swells generated by the storm will reach the east and south-facing shores of the islands a couple days before the rest of the impacts and may create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.

Latest observation

As of Wednesday, August 12 — 11:00 AM

Observed information

  • Current position: 14.7°N 142.6°W
  • Forward movement: W (260°) at 9 mph ▼
  • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars ▼

Relative position

  • 894 miles east-southeast of Hilo
  • 948 miles east-southeast of Kailua-Kona
  • 1,007 miles east-southeast of Kahului

Resources

Official information

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Forecast graphics

National Weather Service

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u/giantspeck — 9 days ago
▲ 13 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for a disturbance which is currently active over the east-central Pacific Ocean.
  • This system is currently situated about halfway between Hawaii and the Baja California Peninsula.
  • This system is not to be confused with Invest 93C, which is located farther west.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system and has designated as Disturbance 2.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not available.
  • Comprehensive updates to this post are currently paused.

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u/giantspeck — 10 days ago
▲ 7 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development to the northeast of Bermuda

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for a disturbance which is currently active over the western subtropical Atlantic.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system and has designated as Disturbance 3.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not available.
  • Comprehensive updates to this post are currently paused.

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u/giantspeck — 10 days ago
▲ 78 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical east-central Atlantic Ocean

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for a disturbance which is currently active over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system and has designated as Disturbance 1.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not available.
  • Comprehensive updates to this post are currently paused.

Official information

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u/giantspeck — 11 days ago
▲ 40 r/TropicalWeather+1 crossposts

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical central Atlantic Ocean

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for a disturbance which is currently active over the tropical central Atlantic.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system and has designated as Disturbance 2.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not available.
  • Comprehensive updates to this post are currently paused.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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u/SVAuspicious — 11 days ago
▲ 12 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southwestern Mexico

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development well to the west and southwest of Mexico. Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will form several hundred kilometers off the coast of southwestern Mexico over the upcoming weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear to be supportive of development and a tropical depression or storm could form by the middle of next week.

The disturbance is expected to move northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. The latest ensemble models indicate that the disturbance will likely remain far offshore clear into the latter part of the upcoming week. The potential for this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next seven days remains low (30 percent) but is gradually increasing.

Official outlook

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Outlook discussion

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Tue): low (30 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Fri): low (5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Tue): low (29 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/giantspeck — 14 days ago
▲ 7 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a tropical wave situated several hundred miles southeast of Hawaiʻi is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance has not yet developed a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC is monitoring this system and has designated it as Disturbance 1 in its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

The disturbance is moving westward to west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the north. This ridge is likely to remain in place for the next few days, keeping the disturbance on a fairly consistent track which will bring it close to the islands by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, with weak vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures offset by relatively dry mid-level air and weak diffluence aloft.

This system may become a concern for residents Hawaiʻi by the end of the upcoming week. Most ensemble model members show this system passing closely to the south of the islands; however, some show the disturbance making a glancing blow or direct impact. It remains far too early to determine the exact timing and extent of any potential impacts from this system, so residents of Hawaiʻi are urged to continue to monitor this system over the next several days.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Outlook discussion

A tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while the wave moves west-northwestward across the central Pacific.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): high (80 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (30 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): high (90 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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u/giantspeck — 14 days ago
▲ 4 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Pacific Ocean

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles southwest of Clarion Island continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts west-northwestward across the eastern Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific later this week.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the central portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable, but could become more conducive for slow development over the weekend into early next week as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (25 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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u/giantspeck — 15 days ago
▲ 4 r/TropicalWeather

The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

Updates

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an elongated disturbance situated several hundred miles east-southeast of Hawaiʻi continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts westward across the east-central Pacific this afternoon. The disturbance is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow and is moving along the southern periphery of a broad mid-level ridge positioned well to the north. Environmental conditions remain only marginally supportive of further development, with strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offsetting very warm sea-surface temperatures. Significant development is not likely; however, this disturbance will continue to be monitored as it crosses into the central Pacific over the next few days.

This system does not have a closed low-level circulation and has not yet been designated as an investigation area. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not currently available for this system.

Official outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located over the western portion of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Authoritative outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): low (20 percent)

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Thu): low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 AM HST on Mon): low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

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Forecast models

Regional guidance

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u/giantspeck — 15 days ago
▲ 99 r/Hawaii

Tropical Weather Watch: Fausto (06E)

Overview

Last updated: Sunday, July 26 — 6:00 PM

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto has undergone very little change in strength or structure throughout the day on Sunday. Although the storm is moving through a much drier environment, it has managed to maintain deep convection for the past several hours. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Fausto’s maximum one-minute sustained winds are holding steady at 105 miles per hour.

Fausto is moving through an increasingly hostile environment where weak southwesterly vertical wind shear is offset by lukewarm sea-surface temperatures, dry mid-level air, and weak upper diffluence. This will cause the storm to steadily weaken as it continues west-northwestward through the central Pacific over the next few days. Fausto is forecast to weaken to tropical storm strength by tomorrow morning. Later this week, strengthening southwesterly shear will displace Fausto’s convection away from its low-level center, weakening it more quickly.

Fausto is moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned far to the north. This ridge is expected to remain in place for the next several days, allowing Fausto to remain on generally the same trajectory and pass to the north of the islands from Tuesday through Thursday.

Impacts

Fausto is expected to be weak and disorganized as it passes to the north of the islands this week. Strong upper-level winds will displace the heaviest rain and strongest winds away from the islands toward the northeast. Significant rain and wind impacts from this system are unlikely, but brief periods of heavy rain could cause flash flooding, especially in high-terrain areas. Large swells generated by the storm will reach the east-facing shores of the islands over the next couple of days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, July 26 — 5:00 PM

Source: NHC Advisory #23

  • Current position: 20.1°N 143.7°W
  • Relative position: 740 miles E of Hilo
  • Forward movement: W (280°) at 15 mph
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph
  • Minimum central pressure: 984 millibars (29.06 inches)
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 1)

Quick forecast — Next 48 hours

Last updated: Sunday, July 26 — 5:00 PM

  • 2:00 AM Mon: 80 mph ▼
  • 2:00 PM Mon: 70 mph ▼
  • 2:00 AM Tue: 60 mph ▼
  • 2:00 PM Tue: 50 mph ▼
  • 2:00 AM Wed: 45 mph ▼

Resources

Official information

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

National Weather Service

Hawaii State Civil Defense

Unofficial information

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u/giantspeck — 28 days ago