Rklb is sitting at 81b market cap as of this morning. 81b... with negative income. They have roughly by my calcs 600x less payload to orbit than spacex... Yet the company is valued at 20x less than space X if space X is 1.5t to 2t market cap (as expected)

Can someone justify that to me? Genuinely want to be talked out of buying puts here.

On top of that space X has the super profitable starlink making up most of its business...

Rklb is going all in on launch as far as I can tell, maybe I'm wrong here but neutron is their Hail Mary. They have other stuff going on sure but I don't see any of that justifying 80b market cap lol.

Everyone acts like rklb is the second coming of space X.. And there is no other competition. Well... There is a ton of private companies making rockets not just space X. Then you have the public company firefly making a rocket with just as much payload as neutron!!! Even if rklb pull neutron off it doesn't even compete with falcon 9 heavy for payloads lol. Debate me if I'm wrong here but rklb is not set up as the big second in field here, this shit is way more competitive than people are making out. It's not going to be space X + rklb dominating space. And even if it is I do not believe the TAM in the next year's is going to justify these market cap multiples.

Anyway I think space as a whole here is in a buy the rumour sell the news, the rumour being space X Ipo, the news event being the actual space X Ipo.

I think there is a high chance here that Rklb is going to shit the bed. It's incredibly over extended. If space X Ipo does well then RKLB probably dips, if space X Ipo crashes than rklb will most certainly crash.

Even forgetting about the Ipo angle:

$680M TTM revenue Negative net income Neutron not yet operational at scale No Starlink-equivalent recurring cash machine

It is comfortably over 100x p/s lmao. That's pltr territory and at least that shit is turning a profit.

Market cap is 13x Lunr whilst having less forward revenue projected. And Lunr is profitable! And Lunr is probably a little over valued right now too hahahah. Shits nuts imo.

Positions: I've been holding rklb shares since 4 dollars. Sold some at 80 USD thinking it's getting overvalued. Still holding others + Lunr + Bksy etc. Now at 135 I bought puts. I'm going to buy more puts aimed at late 2026 if it opens above 140 this morning.

EDIT: Positions 2 people asking about proof of the above I posted some screenshots in the comments.