Daily Discussion Thread for May 21, 2026
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Bought $RKLB for the SpaceX IPO run-up / announcement and sold everything yesterday. 1.3 Million total gain on the trade in about 2 weeks.
For people asking about Virgin Galactic, the other stock I made a post about, I’m still in my position and holding it for the SpaceX IPO day. Apparently you’re not allowed to post the ticker here because the market cap is too low and it gets automatically removed by mods if you do. That said, I think it helps that the ticker is super close to the SpaceX ticker, and I think the move will start on IPO day. I remember during the GameStop frenzy in January 2021, some stock with a similar ticker went up like 300% or something in a day.
I’m genuinely trying to understand the bull case, not argue.
At a potential $1.5T+ valuation, what is the actual revenue and profit path that gets SpaceX there?
My hesitation is that the core Starlink thesis seems somewhat self-limiting. The original value proposition is providing internet where traditional broadband isn’t available, but many of those underserved regions also have lower purchasing power. If customers can’t afford conventional broadband today, why should we assume they’ll become highly profitable Starlink subscribers tomorrow?
Beyond that, Starlink’s highest-value customers appear to be airlines, cruise ships, governments, militaries, and remote enterprises. Those are valuable markets, but are they truly large enough to support a valuation that would place SpaceX among the most valuable companies in the world?
For context, companies worth $1T-$3T typically generate tens or even hundreds of billions in annual profit and hundreds of billions in revenue. What specific revenue streams do SpaceX bulls believe can realistically scale to that level?
Genuinely love the hubris and ego I had thinking I could learn without paper trading … Should’ve would’ve could’ve , market tuition I guess.
26m, plenty of human capital left in me so, off to work we go ffs.
I’m keeping it simple Microsoft and ServiceNow are going to be AI winners and are oversold right now. NOW will work with AI in tandem and their 98% retention should tell you everything u need to know about how much the customers love their product. I’m betting 2 months from now these 2 will be up significantly as their prices correct. And ask yourself how is MSFT not gonna make bank off of OpenAi ipo?
If you’re a value investor you’re looking at SaaS shitcos, some of which are getting priced as if they will be obliterated by AI.
If you look at what metric is king, you’d obviously want to see cash flow generated. But what about stock based compensation? That’s an expense too…
Strip out stock based compensation as an expense (which it is and what SaaS bros try to shy you away from) and AppLovin looks really cheap. They are an AI winner being priced as an AI loser. They are also growing revenue at 50% YoY and REDUCING share count quarter over quarter.
We are talking at least $4B in buybacks a year, eliminating 2-3% of float.
Your favorite Mag7s like META, GOOGL, and AMZN are all negative on this multiple. Why invest in a company bleeding cash in the AI buildout when you can buy a company that spends 0 on CapEx and is a winner?
Finally unloaded my Spotify bags. I have no idea why it's pumping.
IBM and the Department of Commerce announced that each will contribute $1B to Anderon, a new subsidiary of IBM headquartered in Albany, NY. This will be a 300mm wafer foundry specifically built for quantum chips. Let's hope IBM doesn't fumble this like so many previous projects like Watson.
Anthropic has committed to paying nearly $45bn to SpaceX over the next three years to secure computing capacity for running its Claude AI software.
The Pentagon said in a statement These agreements speed up the U.S. military's transition to building an AI first fighting force, and will strengthen our warfighters' ability to maintain a decision advantage across different battlefields.
Integrating secure, boundary AI capabilities into the Pentagon's Impact Level 6 and Impact Level 7 network environments will make data synthesis easier, improve situational awareness, and boost decision-making for warfighters in complex combat environments.
SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, NVIDIA, Reflection, Microsoft, AWS, and Oracle will be providing the resources to get their capabilities deployed in those IL6 and IL7 environments.
And that's why I'm bullish on it
Could Spacex be the most overhyped company of all time? Even more overhyped than Tesla? Could it be possible one of the worst IPO’s of all time in terms of what the financials actually are and what its valuation is going public at? They lost over $1 Billion last quarter… how on earth are they worth anywhere close to $1.5T?? It’s all hopes and dreams of putting data centers in space and that won’t happen in the next 10 years and possibly never as it just doesn’t make any sense regardless of what Musk and Bezos says (they both have rocket launch company’s so they want it to happen to make money off it).
I just don’t understand how it’s anywhere close to the proposed valuation based on nothing really with no real growth story because data centers in space is not happening. So your really paying for an internet service company that only has 10 million customers and will never be as good as the big 4 telecom companies, xai that loses money hand over fist and twitter which is in the same boat. What’s the big deal over this and why isn’t any investment company calling it out for what it is??
I've been fortunate in the stock market last year and have hit a new mile stone of over 500k.
Now I've sold most of stock holdings and holding 300k in cash. I've been using the cash for mmf and collateral for short put options.
I've been getting 5 to 10k a month in short put options.
I am no longer working (employment) in order to fully dedicate to my own business and sustaining my living thru short put/mmf.
I quit my 6 figure job BTW. And I'm moving to a much cheaper city to minimize my monthly expenses.
What are your regard thoughts?
*edit: I'm moving to Shenzhen China BTW
*edit again: I AM FOCUSING FULLY ON MY BUSINESS. I am not working as an employee. Seems my grammar was poor and many of you misunderstood that I quit both.