r/wallstreetbets

All in only 4 years

https://aiweekly.co/alerts/anthropic-adds-iren-to-530b-data-center-lease-scramble

The AI run continues!

I’m 19 now, I was still 18 when I lost most of the money. Spent years saving up, NEVER spending a penny. Every single paycheck would be saved. Invested a lot of it the moment I turned 18.

Then, I discovered options. I was up over $1k on a Micron call in less than 60 seconds. I sold that call, continued trading throughout that day, was at a loss at some point, and ended the day off with around $20 in profit. I’ve been chasing that high ever since. Most trades were pure gambling, just trading for the sake of trading. Realistically, it was a gambling addiction.

After the last crash you see on the graph, I traded almost exclusively on margin. I decided to pay the margin debt off when it finally hit me how much I’ve lost, and now I’m officially broke.

I don’t even know how to feel about this anymore. I’ve been stuck in a rut ever since I started trading options. It feels like the last 3 years were just thrown away.

I’m done for the time being. No more intention of trying to make the losses back through trading.

I’ll make the money back, somehow, eventually. Ouch.

EDIT - For Gods sake guys, at its core its just communications infrastrucutre, and data storage, Elon musk is not the first, nor will be the last "tech bro" to come up with it. He simply was the first guy to go public with some shit like this.

You cannot constantly associate the idea of Data Storage Processing, Communication, Computing & Updates that just happens to be in space with SpaceX or Musk. Its honestly fucking retarded and incredibly obtuse.

Also data center is a loose term it doesn't have to be this big ass multi-gigawatt box it could literally just be a server like digital Ocean or linode, or a big ass cluster of linux servers specifically tailored towards long-term uptime and low power draw that works large enough with the solar panels attached to it or the nuclear reactor whichever is easier.

---

When I was a teenager I read a book called the Kraken project by an author called Douglas Preston in this book and some of the concepts related to artificial intelligence within the book, I have been witnessing occur in reality.

Which has sparked my interest related to data centers in space. Initially, I thought this was not financially viable & was some BS, however now I believe that in the future it could potentially be financially viable and I will present my argument below.

SPACE BASED DATA CENTER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ARGUMENT.

Space based data centers are not an attempt to replicate hyperscale infrastructure in orbit. A more compelling thesis is to develop a distributed computing, storage, and communications network for autonomous robotics operating on the Moon, Mars, and other extraterrestrial environments.

Space agencies, robotics manufacturers, and commercial mission operators could lease compute capacity, data storage, optical communications, and software-distribution services rather than independently building and maintaining every component.

The technical rationale centers on bandwidth, latency, and autonomous operations. Earth-Mars one-way light time varies from approximately 3 to 22 minutes, making conventional real-time remote control impractical. Orbital computing cannot overcome the speed of light, but it can process sensor data locally, cache software updates, aggregate telemetry, and distribute validated AI models across robotic fleets.

This could support a version-controlled deployment architecture analogous to GitHub, combined with edge computing and delay-tolerant networking.

NASA's existing Mars relay infrastructure, LunaNet framework, and delay-tolerant networking work provide relevant precedents, although an integrated orbital compute network would require further engineering and commercial validation.

FINANCIAL VIABILITY (PROJECTIONS, NOT MODELED OR TESTED)

The investment case depends on capital intensity, asset lives, and replacement economics. Spacecraft platforms, optical terminals, power systems, and computing payloads have different useful lives and should be modeled separately for depreciation and amortization.

A spacecraft might remain operational after its computing hardware becomes economically obsolete, creating a technology-refresh problem. Radiation tolerance, thermal management, power generation, launch costs, servicing limitations, and end-of-life disposal all affect life cycle cost.

EBITDA would be an insufficient valuation metric. FCF, replacement capital expenditure, return on invested capital, and asset utilization would be the best way to look at it imo*.

Commercial viability requires a bottom-up unit-economics model. Revenue could come from contracted network capacity, compute usage, storage, data processing, and software-distribution services.

Ten customers paying $400,000 annually would produce $4 million in ARR*. (I PERSONALLY find this to be a terrible metric for valuing companies)

However, that figure is a modeling assumption, not evidence of market demand. Underwriting would require estimates for payload mass, launch and deployment costs, useful life, power consumption, operating expenses, customer acquisition, contract duration, utilization, and financing costs, downside scenarios involving delayed deployment, lower utilization, hardware obsolescence, and higher replacement expenditure.

A rational commercialization strategy would begin with a lunar (the moon) demonstration focused on communications, storage, and inference rather than immediately attempting general-purpose orbital GPU training.

Governments could provide anchor demand, while commercial robotics operators could expand utilization as activity grows.

The principal investment question is whether shared orbital infrastructure can deliver sufficient incremental mission performance or cost savings to justify its lifecycle capital requirements relative to onboard processing and Earth-based alternatives. If validated through customer contracts, engineering demonstrations, and disciplined financial modeling, the concept could develop into a specialized infrastructure asset class supporting the expansion of autonomous operations beyond Earth.

Illustrative Lunar Data Center Financial Model

Under this scenario, the company reaches accounting break-even in 2031 and earns approximately $4 million in net income by 2032.

Financial metric	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Rev	2	6	12	20	28	35
EBITDA	(3)	(2)	1	6	13	20
D&A	(1)	(2)	(4)	(7)	(10)	(12)
EBIT	(4)	(4)	(3)	(1)	3	8
Interest expense	(1)	(2)	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)
Pre-tax income	(5)	(6)	(6)	(4)	0	5
Estimated taxes	0	0	0	0	0	(1)
Net income	(5)	(6)	(6)	(4)	0	4

Essentially my argument is, for now, I don't believe we have the tech fully, there, but its viable, and there is (IMO) pending commercial demand. I dont believe its going to be this big ass rollout of vehicles, but rather as contracts are landed and code is developed, and vehicles are engineered, I predict the specialized demand will create and maintain itself.

If I was the Head of Energy of a country, with a Helium-3 Nuclear Reactor, and I had 10 billion allocated to my budget, one of the first things I would do is immediately put an engineering team, focused on mining helium-3 from the Moon, and another team focused on specifically transport back & forth.

Because we don't have much of that on Earth, and it makes great safe* & cheap energy which could reduce our entire country's energy costs significantly.

As for compute, data storage, I would probably just go to SpaceX and lease it from them, and for vehicle launches, I would most likely also contract SpaceX to get our vehicles in orbit, and our team would take it to the moon, and land it.

Communications, would be handled by our team with the infra leased from SpaceX, we would need the live feed, to control any vehicles on the moon remotely, and that's why a datacenter that can store, compute, process, and push updates, is incredibly valuable.

Anyway, Idk im not a fucking rocket scientist so dont come at me with some bullshit like "🤓ohhhh you don't understand this completely fucking obscure math problem,which makes this completely unviable". Okay, I like to dream sometimes so live a little.

Lmk what you think. Am I tripping balls or have I struck financial modeling gold here.

Sources n shit.

• NASA Mars Relay Network
• NASA LunaNet
• NASA Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking
• NASA Lunar Communications and Navigation Architecture (PDF)
• Reddit: Orbital Data Centers Make No Sense. Fact Check Me.