
The Knight Curve
For a long time there we had a surprisingly consistent Knight rate of 1 Knight per day. However, that's been curving off for a while now. Out of curiosity, I did some spread sheeting to fit the that curve to an equation; chopping off a bunch of the early data points as outliers. Here is the result:
K = -1039 + 238*LN(D)
Where K is the expected Knight Number and D is the number of days since March 25th, 2025 (the day of the first Knight). From this we can get:
D = e^((K+1039)/238)
And from that we can calculate that, if the curve continues as is, Knight number 777 will occur somewhere around day 2060 or November 14th, 2030. The equation does tend to under predict the number a little bit so even with a fairly close curve fit the actual day is likely to be a day or two earlier than that. From this, I do think the year 2030 or 2031 is probably going to be a reasonable guess for how long it will take to reach the auspicious number.