u/Far_wide

Don't worry, I have not started vibe coding.

It's not brand new, but I've just discovered that the earlyretirementnow.com guy has made a web tool FIRE drawdown simulator which I find much more useful than his spreadsheet.

It's here and the only reason I mention it is that it's unique (AFAIK?) feature is that once you input your data, you can use simple sliders to limit the historical scenarios by what CAPE* value they started at and also to limit scenarios by how far into a drawdown you are.

I think this is especially relevant/useful now and actually strangely reassuring in a way, given we're at ridiculously elevated levels at present. Though it obviously shows that higher withdrawal rates fail far more often when you start off at elevated CAPE levels, it also provides reassurance there's huge potential to increase your SWR% rate if you happen to FIRE into a declining market.

I was using it last night (I know how to spend a damn good Friday night) to stress test scenarios where equities drop 40% or so and actually found it quite reassuring.

On the flipside, it is rather interesting that if you slide the CAPE slider all the way up to 40 (roughly where we are now in the US market anyway), then that limits the 1,737 available past scenarios to, um, 6. Which rather shows just how rarefied the air is up here. Though 4% does still work for some parameters!

*For anyone who doesn't know what I'm talking about, CAPE is a valation metric one can use to try and say how over/under valued markets are. No metric is perfect, but it does have a reasonable correlation with long term outlook. I wouldn't personally say pin your hopes and dreams or worst fears on it, but use it alongside everything else, including your gut!

As a global tracker is up a frankly outrageous 27% year on year today, there surely must be some here who've suddenly been thrust unexpectedly from the long slow middle bit of FIRE to very nearly or indeed at their target.

I'm curious about your stories and what you'll do now? Jetting off? One more year? Or rather more tediously perhaps lowering your SWR target because it looks rather over bullish now?

Last week, I quite enjoyed chasing a bit of XP for promotion whilst learning. It was a bit of fun.

Today, I noticed that when I opened duo on mobile I was flung 200XP in about 5 minutes for doing match madness, which was way easier then actually slogging through written exercises on desktop to actually properly learn the content, whilst earning 10XP each time.

Even just the standard exercises, which again were easier than desktop, earned 3x XP.

I get why and everything (advertising on mobile), but I'm gonna just disregard XP for now and try to focus on actually learning for its own sake. The incentives seem rather perverse for actually learning.

To be constructive, the obvious suggestion is to equalise rewards, or even reward the more difficult desktop exercises more than mobile, but I perceive this as an active choice of theirs to be honest.