Forecasting for Lean Fire
Hello everyone. I’m fairly new to personal finance and the fire movement more generally.
I am keen to put myself in a position to retire in my 50s along with my partner. If not retire then to have a greater degree of flexibility and control over my time and work that I do.
For context we have 2 kids aged 21 months and 9 months. I (32M) am a paramedic with the ambulance service. My partner (29F) works part time now as a financial administrator.
At the moment we have:
Emergency fund - £6000
My S and S ISA - £3,600
Partners S and S ISA - £1000
Partners workplace pension - £24,000
My SIPP - £2,300
My DB pension - ( NHS 2015 scheme) - Currently £2800 per annum at 67. Estimated value if still in NHS at 57 would be somewhere around £20,000 per annum if no lump sum is taken
Our collective monthly income is around £4200.
After essential bills, fun money and money for kids we have £1100 left to save/invest.
Plan would be:
-£400 in to my S and S ISA.
-£400 in to partners S and S ISA
-Additional £100 overpayment on mortgage. Already overpaying £100. (Mortgage would be paid off in 25 years aged 57,55 respectively).
-£200 would go in to a holiday fund.
I am due to go from £43,000 to £52,000 salary in two and a half years and would like to think I could then up investments if avoiding lifestyle creep.
Assuming 7% (10% average minus inflation average 3%ish) returns on the S and S accounts, both invested in VWRP, values would sit around:
My S and S ISA - £334,645
Partners S and S ISA - £320,534
Total - £655,179
If we had a more conservative estimate of 4 %:
My S and S ISA - £213,828
Partners S and S ISA - £206,897
Total - £420,725
This would effectively act as a bridge until state pension and access to my DB pension.
We have estimated we could comfortably live on £25,000-£30,000 per annum covering bills, a few holidays, recreational spending and money for kids.
I appreciate there a lots of variables in life including market downturns, illness, divorce, pension changes and other joys. I also appreciate my children may require financial assistance throughout their life.
I would just appreciate feedback on my forecasting and would appreciate any constructive feedback on errors or things I haven’t considered.
Thanks in advance.