u/FightSignal

Allen went from a grappler to a volume striker. His output went from 2.2 to 3.4 strikes per min with 76% takedown defense. Plus he had 0 KO wins in his first 8 UFC fights, then started finishing top guys

Costa went from wild swinging to actually landing clean shots. His head strike accuracy tripled from 10.5% to 36.5%

His defense got way better too (33% to 54.5%). And he added wrestling: lands 2 takedowns per fight now at 40.7%

So Allen's gonna throw volume with good takedown defense. Costa's more patient now, picks his shots better and might try to wrestle

Allen's TDD is probably good enough to keep it standing. If it does, his volume vs Costa's power is interesting. Costa used to just swing wild but now he's actually precise

Feel like Allen out works him if it stays standing. But Costa's way more dangerous than he used to be.

Van used to just throw volume but now he's got knockouts (0.6 per fight) and his takedown accuracy is at 63.6%

Still throws a ton though → 8.84 strikes per min while absorbing 6.39

Taira was just a submission guy. Now he's got 3 KO wins to go with his 3 submission wins. His takedown accuracy went from 20% to 46.5% and he's shooting over 3 times per fight. Plus his finish rate is at 66.7%

So Van's got better takedown accuracy but Taira shoots way more often. Van's gonna throw a ton of strikes. Taira's finishing two thirds of his fights.

Feel like this comes down to whether Van can stuff enough takedowns to keep it standing. If he does, his volume probably wins. If Taira gets it down a couple times, he's dangerous with both submissions and ground strikes.

Looks like a pretty even matchup

Chimaev used to finish everyone in 3 mins. Now his fights go 8+ mins and he's only finishing 66% instead of 100%. But he's proven he can take damage (absorbs 2.32 per min now vs 0.1 early)

Plus he used to be 82 ground strikes for every 1 standing strike, now it's almost equal.

Strickland stopped wrestling completely and turned into a volume boxer. Throws 6+ strikes a min with 85% takedown defense.

He's willing to absorb more damage too (went from 3.5 to 4.5 per min) just to keep the pressure on.

So Chimaev can wrestle or strike now but Strickland's takedown defense is legit. And if it stays standing, Strickland's gonna throw 6 strikes a min for 25 mins.

Chimaev's probably never faced someone who can actually stuff his takedowns and has that kind of cardio. But Strickland's never faced someone who hits that hard on the feet either.

Feel like this is gonna be way closer than we think

JDM used to just blitz folks in round 1. Now his fights go way longer and he's landing way less per min (dropped from 14 to 5.33). But he also cut the damage he takes in half, from 8.38 down to 3.7

Plus he goes to the body now instead of just hunting for head

Prates did something similar with defense, went from absorbing 7.51 strikes a min to 4.61.

But he went the opposite direction on offense. He became a head hunter. His head strike accuracy tripled to 43%. Plus his takedown defense is at 82%

So JDM wants a long fight where he works the body and drains you. Prates wants to keep it standing and knock your head off

Probably comes down to whether Prates can land the big head shot before JDM's body work takes over