r/MMAbetting

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https://www.on.bet365.ca/s/r/SBkxp

Every time I cash a bet out it ends up hitting and it’s annoying. The ones I let ride tend to crash and burn. What’s one parlay you guys had over 9 legs that you cashed out and wish you didn’t?

It wasn't his best performance either, he had to adjust. I made a small bet like notes for me to remember to bet big on Bruce Carrington Decision, and I still forgot... Fahhh!

Benoit Saint Denis just KO'd Beneil Dariush in sixteen seconds. Then submitted Mauricio Ruffy. Then TKO'd Dan Hooker.

Four straight. Coming for a fifth.

And Paddy's fanbase is out here acting like this is a showcase bout.

Brother.

Pimblett tried five takedowns against Gaethje six months ago and landed zero. Zero. Saint Denis stops those attempts, gets him down instead, and it's over before this crowd finishes ordering drinks.

4.19 takedowns per 15 minutes. 72 percent takedown defense. That's not a matchup problem for Paddy, that's a wall.

Seven days out. Get your money in now.

Saint Denis by submission, round two. Bet against it.

src info: agentmma.com

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To begin with, this bout is taking place at welterweight, a division Max Holloway has zero experience in. Conversely, Conor McGregor has spent the last five years getting his body fully adjusted to the heavier weight.

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Furthermore, Holloway still tends to absorb head strikes, and it remains to be seen if his signature cardio and speed will effectively translate to this heavier weight class. His durability has naturally declined over time; if he gets caught by a premier striker like McGregor, a knockout loss is highly plausible.

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Although Holloway is still relatively young, his long tenure fighting top-tier opponents has resulted in significant cumulative damage. Competing across three different weight classes will undoubtedly place a severe strain on his body. Looking back at McGregor's featherweight run, his true strengths were distance management, striking power, and precision rather than sheer speed.

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Additionally, since Holloway’s functional strength at welterweight remains an unknown factor, we cannot rule out the possibility that even if Holloway manages to secure an underhook, the stronger and longer McGregor will simply overpower him through sheer physical strength and force a takedown—reminiscent of Holloway vs. Oliveira 2—and look to neutralize Holloway with his wrestling. While many are concerned about McGregor's five-year layoff, I believe the stylistic matchup and the difference in physical recovery will ultimately lead to a McGregor upset.

Right now, the 69% accurate raw model is picking every favorite apart from Krylov (low probability). I will post the full odds-blended model with method predictions and Glicko-2 picks sometime next week. I’m happy to answer any questions about the model or its performance metrics.

It is fairly well calibrated with an ECE about 6.4%, meaning probabilities are fairly trustworthy.

Red is more confident, Purple less ( Krylov should be Purple) Just some early food for thought and early predictions, no bets locked until all the props drop. 1. Holloway vs McGregor - I think Holloway will get it done, if he doesn't he's truly a shell of his former self. McGregor is coming off a broken leg and five years off. I think Holloway will find a KO in rounds 1,2 or 3. Yet I marked it Purple because early in the fight McGregor does have that lucky punch chance. This is the only fight with props out currently, I like Holloway by KO 1,2 or 3 +165, McGregor ML and fight to end in KO. I question McGregor's gas tank after being away for so long. Holloway finds the KO at some point or McGregor KOs him early. 2.BSD vs Paddy - Both guys are good, this is a banger. I like Paddy as the plus money Underdog and I think he could get it done. That said BSD is the real deal, wouldn't be surprised if he won at all. I'm curious about the Sub and Points props when they drop. 3. Sandhagen vs Bautista - I'm more backing of Sandhagen currently, but Bautista has that Dog in him. If Sandhagen doesn't come prepared and take him seriously, I could see Bautista being more hungry and getting a decision win. I think it goes the distance, curious about the by points props. For now though I'm more so backing Sandhagen. 4. Royval vs Kavanagh - This is one I keep flipping back and forth with. Originally I was more backing of Kavanagh, I could still see him winning the war of volume and getting a decision. Thinking more about it I'm starting to lean more Royval. Royval has fought much tougher competition, he has a nice win over Taira and I don't fault him for his KO loss to Kape who's a beast. Kavanagh looked good against Moreno, but that's not saying much, Moreno is a former shell of what he used to be. I think Royval as an underdog might pull it off, that or Kavanagh pieces him up with volume. For now though I'm beginning to lean more on the Royval side. 5. Green vs McKinney - this is a banger and will have good prop bets. I'm leaning more towards Green, I think he has more old Dog experience to get it done. That said if McKinney wins it wouldn't be surprising. Potentially juicy props could be Sub props, fight over 1.5 rounds, round 1 KO. 6. Whittaker vs Krylov - I should have marked this one Purple. I'm more backing of Whittaker, I'm curious to see how he looks at light heavyweight. Krylov can be a hot and cold fighter, he does have potential underdog upset chances. For now though I'm more backing of Whittaker, but this is one to be careful on. 7. Steveson vs Ellison - Not much to talk about here, mismatched fight. I don't see Ellison getting an upset and Steveson ML is beyond dumb. I guess you could play round 1 KO. Though it will likely not hit I like the longshot prop of Steveson by Sub, he has tried to get a Sub previously. 8. Yanez vs Garbrandt - Garbrandt hasn't looked good, but I marked this Purple for a couple reasons. Yanez is coming in as a heavy favorite ML, but he has a decision loss to Marcos, he has been knocked out by Martinez and Font. Garbrandt sucks nowadays yes, but.... If Font can KO you Garbrandt also certainly can. I do think Yanez has improved, I think he gets it done, but with his high price tag and some past history, a Garbrandt upset win would really push Yanez backwards. 9. Riley vs Kamaka - Riley is another fighter coming in with a high priced ML. Kamaka is a durable fighter, but it's hard to back him as an underdog because he doesn't finish fights. He might survive the KO, but I think Riley will get it done. 10.Cortez vs Cong - I'm not really betting this fight so I don't care much. Cong by decision I guess, just like the Stevenson fight it's not going in many of my parlays. 11. Pinas vs Almeida - Now this is a banger. I like Pinas as a prospect, I think he will find the KO or decision. That said knocking out Shultz isn't impressive, he has a real test in Almeida who is dangerous and a skilled Vet. I'm more backing of Pinas, but Almeida winning is also possible. 12. Gandra vs Reese - Gandra is a good prospect and I think he will find the KO win. Reese is also a good fighter, but has been knocked out a couple of times. I like Gandra to win, but hopefully he doesn't gas out and give Reese opportunities. 13. Costa vs Durden - I like Costa here, though it's hard to read how he could win as he's dangerous in KO, Sub or by points. Durden does randomly show up at times and gets wins occasionally, but I think Costa takes this one.

Huge step up in competition.

I don't ever do more than 3+ parlay's but this looks like a fun little play