u/Slayers_Picks

Hello!

I hope we’re all doing well!

Episode 73 Lord Ninja Choke:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vsftv8/ufc_sacramento_fight_predictions/

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PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2432 - 1389, 216 Perfect | 581 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 71% (+0.2%) (Personal Best, lets go)

Lock Record: 34 - 8 (Abdul-Malik was never my friend)

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UFC 330 Recap

Prediction Results: 9/12 Correct, 2 Perfect (Dern, Ribovics)

Parlay: It was never alive to begin with! Missed

Alt Bets: 2 Missed

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Profit/Loss for 2026: -20 (-2.2)

(This is not covering my SBR’s that I release weekly, this strictly covers my Alt Bets/Parlays)

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Last week was an interesting event, lots of finishers followed by a fair few stinkers in the co-main and main event, I’m pretty sure all of us were looking on our phones during most of those two fights.

This weeks event though? Good lord, maybe I get my ass whooped here and the momentum ends… But there are some solid dogs, great prospects and overall interesting fights, lets get onto it!

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

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Prelims

Women’s Strawweight

Shanelle Dyer (-650) (7-1-0, NS) v Elise Reed (+455) (8-5-0, NS)

Striking: Dyer is a very clean striker, she does everything by the books in that she doesn’t do anything that you shouldn’t do, footwork, body kicks, teeps, everything she does is to set up the subsequent series of singular or combination attacks, she’s great.

Wrestling/Grappling: This probably is Reeds only pathway to victory, if she can crowd the kicks with wrestling entries she could create a big ol’ upset here.

Additional Notes: Big talent versus Aunt killer, let’s go.

Prediction: Dyer via KO R3 (1/3) | Parlay: Dyer via KO/Points

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Middleweight

Jackson McVey (-175) (7-2-0, NS) v Wes Schultz (+155) (9-3-0, NS)

Striking: McVey possesses more danger in his hands than Schultz, so to keep it short, McVey is the superior striker, although this is entirely dependent on whether or not Schultz gets him down.

Wrestling/Grappling: Both are reasonably good on the ground, it’s clear though that it’s Schultz primary pathway to victory, but I do think McVey can maybe get a front headlock choke if Schultz isn’t careful.

Additional Notes: Nothing more needs to be said here I think!

Prediction: McVey via KO R2 (1/3)

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Lightweight

Gauge Young (-155) (11-3-0, 2 FWS) v Stan Dorsainvil (D) (+135) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)

Striking: I really like Young’s striking, he can be quite vicious at times, he’s coming off a great win against Moises, i’m really sold on him.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is probably Dorsainvil’s main pathway to victory, he is a decent grappler and wrestler so if Gauge gets caught with the takedowns then again, an upset could happen, very interesting matchmaking!

Additional Notes: I think I said all that needs to be said, I believe Stan was ready for a fight but just not this one.

Prediction: Young via Dec (1/3)

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Featherweight

Marcio Barbosa (-900) (18-2-0, 5 FWS) v Ryan Kuse (D) (+615) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)

Striking: You can’t fault Barbosa, his KO over Buzukja was so beautiful, that head movement and the timing and everything was just on point… Kuse is a bit of an unknown but we do know he’s fought at both Featherweight and Bantamweight before so he may be used to getting hit by Featherweights… but Barbosa has just different power man, absolute beast.

Wrestling/Grappling: This could be Kuse’s main pathway here but I think we’re in for a stand up affair.

Additional Notes: Really interested to see how Barbosa does against UFC Talent, which Kuse probably is not.

Prediction: Barbosa via KO R1 (2/3) | Lock

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Lightweight

Nasrat Haqparast (-110) (18-6-0, NS) v Chris Padilla (-110) (17-6-1, NS)

Striking: I broke it down a little bit in the main breakdown, I cannot do it justice doing it in a short write up, but the key words here for Padilla is to replicate what Salkilld did, set up the high attacks with low attacks, also, elbows are great coz Haqparast tends to lead with his head when blitzing. Haqparast is a fantastic boxer though and I explained as much in the main breakdown.

Wrestling/Grappling: Padilla could wrestle, or at least tie up Haqparast, but I think we’re going to see a striking fight here.

Additional Notes: Near even odds is always great to see.

Prediction: Padilla via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Over 2.5 Rounds (Or R3 Starts if over 1.40)

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Heavyweight

Shamil Gaziev (-130) (14-3-0, 2 FLS) v Kennedy Nzechukwu (+105) (14-6-1, NS)

Striking: This is Nzechukwu’s realm, he’s got the length and wide assortment of weaponry to do some great things, that’s the biggest threat to Gaziev by far, especially since, you know, Gaziev is coming off 2 KO losses.

Wrestling/Grappling: Gaziev and “wrestling” are two words that usually go hand in hand, so I just expect Gaziev to try and shut down Nzechukwu early by wrestling, and youll know Nzechukwu is in trouble when Saif Sayud starts yelling.

Additional Notes: Interesting one! Can’t say much else really.

Prediction: Gaziev via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Nzechukwu via KO R1 or 2 (CR)

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Featherweight

Jamall Emmers (+310) (22-8-0, 2 FWS) v Lerryan Douglas (-400) (14-5-0, 6 FWS)

Striking: Douglas is a sick striker, his leg kicks early will be a major proponent for success, and then from there he can let his hands go freely.

Wrestling/Grappling: Emmers has a background in wrestling, I think we’re going to see Emmers try to go for a submission if he can get the fight to the ground, last week I managed to hit Stoltzfus Sub, maybe Emmers can give me similar success, but it’s not an Alt Bet!

Additional Notes: I can’t wait for this one, the way Douglas dismantled Erosa easily (which is a fairly common thing to see, frankly) was great.

Prediction: Douglas via KO R2 (2/3) | Lock | (Small sprinkle on Emmers Sub, not an Alt Bet)

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Main Card

Heavyweight

Anthony Wint (DWCS) (-1000) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Terrance Chatman (D) (+660) (5-1-0, NS)

Striking: I suppose both fighters are heavyweights so both have big power?

Wrestling/Grappling: the main thing here is Wint’s athleticism and force with his takedowns, dudes a former Football player (American, so, the lesser kind, don’t hurt me, I’m Australian, we do things differently here) so I expect takedowns and just the fight to not last long on the feet either due to Wint landing something, or Wint getting the takedown.

Additional Notes: don’t give a flying hoot if Wint is the next big thing, this is a double debut, i need to be sold on a fighter before I get excited.

Prediction: Wint via KO R1 (2/3) | Parlay: Round 3 Starts No (If bad odds, ignore, i won’t add)

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Women’s Flyweight

Carli Judice (-500) (6-2-0, 3 FWS) v Jeisla Chaves (+380) (7-0-0, 7 FWS)

Striking: It’s Judice’s finesse and speed verses Chaves crashing power and strength, that’s the battle here, both fighters have their advantages but I think Judice should have the slightest of advantages here.

Wrestling/Grappling: Chaves has the ability to wrestle, but I don’t think it’ll be too effective if Judice starts digging the underhooks quickly as she did against Miller, she did succumb to the wrestling of Miller early, but learnt to adapt quickly, and that’s the key here.

Additional Notes: Odds seem a bit too wide for me, personally, but I think Judice still wins this one.

Prediction: Judice via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Judice via KO/Points (DC) | Alt Bet: Chaves ML

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Lightweight

Marquel Mederos (+220) (11-1-0, NS) v Mason Jones (-260) (18-2-0, 7 FWS)

Striking: This is absolutely Mederos’ realm, he should be able to tear up Jones face for as long as the fight remains standing, but that’s the issue, I don’t think it will remain standing for very long!

Wrestling/Grappling: Mason Jones is one of the best grapplers to come from Wales and that general area, so I firmly believe if he sticks to his guns and gets his wrestling going, he should make this one look “easy” to an extent, but I don’t know if he will because his fight IQ concerns me sometimes.

Additional Notes: Striker versus Wrestler/Grappler kinda fight!

Prediction: Jones via Dec (1/3)

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Light Heavyweight

Reinier De Ridder (-350) (21-4-0, 2 FLS) v Roman Dolidze (#13) (+270) (15-5-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Virtually Identical, although some say that RDR has better striking, i’d argue that both are literally similar kind of strikers, and i know you’d counter that with saying “yeah but dutch kickboxing” and my response would simply be “is the dutch kickboxing somewhere in this room right now?”

Wrestling/Grappling: Length matters here and I think RDR’s slight edge in reach will help him get a grip and just get those takedowns… Both fighters statistically have dreadful takedown defence, but it’s a matter of aggression and I think RDR tends to be the one to be more aggressive with the takedowns.

Additional Notes: Bit of a meme fight, but this is at 205 so that interests me greatly! I also might sprinkle something on Dolidze getting a knockdown over RDR because RDR tends to get dropped an unhealthy amount of times.

Prediction: RDR via Dec (1/3)

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.Co-Main Event

Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac (#8) (+140) (18-6-0, NS) v Vitor Petrino (-170) (14-2-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: All Petrino, Spivac is a bit of a lumbering kind of fighter, he gets hit a lot, has a genuinely large head and that’s a big ol’ target.

Wrestling/Grappling: Spivac and his wrestling, is there a better combination? I mean, we all expect him to wrestle so this doesn’t need to be said, it’s just a question of when because Spivac sometimes takes his time to get his wrestling going which is absurd to see but, it’s just what he does sometimes!

Additional Notes: I hate that this is the co-main and RDR/Dolidze isn’t.

Prediction: Spivac via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Petrino via KO R1/2 (CR) or Sub R1/2 (CR)

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Main Event

Middleweight

Anthony Hernandez (#5) (-175) (15-3-0, NS) v Gregory Rodrigues (#12) (+145) (19-6-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: I mean, fighting Rodrigues, you expect to get hurt, and Hernandez is the kind to walk through fire to get his wrestling going, so you best believe Robocop has the striking advantage here. Body kicks, leg kicks and Uppercuts, keep an eye out for any of those three.

Wrestling/Grappling: Hernandez is great at weaponising his cardio, and I suspect that if the fight goes into the final 3 rounds, he should be the fresher fighter if he gets his wrestling going during the first two rounds, just to sap the cardio and sting away from Robocop. Robocop has solid BJJ though so its going to be an interesting scrap on the ground.

Additional Notes: Interesting main event! Nothing else to really say here, it could go one of two ways.

Prediction: Hernandez via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Rodriguez via KO R1 or 2 (CR)

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Parlay: Dyer via KO/Points (DC) + Padilla/Haqparast Over 2.5 rounds or R3 Starts + Wint/Chatman R3 Starts No (May remove if odds are trash) + Judice via KO/Points (DC)

Locks: Barbosa and Douglas. Was considering Wint but I am very unsure about him.

Alt Bets: Nzechukwu KO R1 or 2 (CR), Petrino KO R1 or 2 (CR), Rodriguez KO R1 or 2 (CR)... and you know what? Chaves ML.

Dogs: Spivac, Padilla (i think?)

Be sure to read my Parlay Explained posts for more single bets that I recommend!

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello!

I hope we’re all doing well!

Episode 73 Lord Ninja Choke:

TL;DR Breakdown:

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PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2432 - 1389, 216 Perfect | 581 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 71% (+0.2%) (Personal Best, lets go)

Lock Record: 34 - 8 (Abdul-Malik was never my friend)

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UFC 330 Recap

Prediction Results: 9/12 Correct, 2 Perfect (Dern, Ribovics)

Parlay: It was never alive to begin with! Missed

Alt Bets: 2 Missed

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Profit/Loss for 2026: -20 (-2.2)

(This is not covering my SBR’s that I release weekly, this strictly covers my Alt Bets/Parlays)

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Last week was an interesting event, lots of finishers followed by a fair few stinkers in the co-main and main event, I’m pretty sure all of us were looking on our phones during most of those two fights.

This weeks event though? Good lord, maybe I get my ass whooped here and the momentum ends… But there are some solid dogs, great prospects and overall interesting fights, lets get onto it!

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Strawweight

Shanelle Dyer (-650) (7-1-0, NS) v Elise Reed (+455) (8-5-0, NS)

Dyer is still a fresh face in the UFC and in the whole of MMA, having only fought for 3 years, she has a few learning curves to work through before she becomes a fully fledged MMA prospect, but there’s a reason why she’s such a heavy favourite here, and that’s her striking and her clinch work. See, Dyer tends to utilise her kicks throughout her combinations as well as her starting strikes, she is great at using the leg kicks to set up the hands and the hands to set up all sorts of other kicks, but I kind of want to highlight the clinchwork a little bit because I suspect Reed is going to want to neutralise the reach and length of Dyer by getting in close and tying her up against the fence, which practically leads right into what makes Dyer such a dangerous threat on the feet at all positions, Dyer has a 3 inch height advantage, and whilst you might scoff at 3 inches being a big deal, just ask my ex. That height advantage, however miniscule on paper, is going to allow more impact to the abdomen and to the chin if there is a clinch knee available, and since the height also allows Dyer to posture up and force weight on Reed's neck and head, it just leads to very effective clinch striking. One thing that somewhat worries me though is Reed absorbing these strikes, only to get the takedown and maybe make things interesting, because wrestling is literally the only pathway for success for Reed.

Reed is someone who I will talk about with only a few words because I genuinely cannot think of anything positive to say about her other than maybe she’s a nice person, but as a fighter, I have things to say that might… be rough or harsh. Reed’s only wins have been against an aged Jessica Penne and also an aged (and frankly not good) Jinh Yu Frey, and to circle back to Penne, people were describing that fight as a changing of the guard kind of bout, and I can’t agree at all there, because in order for that to happen, the guard has to be at the post, Penne was practically retired and only was there to fight out her contract, and Frey was pretty much a filler fighter for the entirety of her UFC career, she was literally only there to make cards look more full, so I cannot say with any niceness what makes Reed a UFC level fighter because she has not proven anything to still be here. Now, I did highlight the only route to victory I see her taking, but the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more freedom Dyer has at landing her kicks, getting her flowstate going and just looking like what we expect a -650 favourite to look like.

I got Dyer winning this one, I expect a KO in the later rounds after a few teeps to the body or a strong combination, or if my read is very correct here, clinch strikes leading to a quick ref stoppage once Reed goes down.

Dyer via KO R3 - (2/3)

Middleweight

Jackson McVey (-175) (7-2-0, NS) v Wes Schultz (+155) (9-3-0, NS)

Oh boy.

I mean look, someone has to win, right? I have been a harsh critic of both fighters in the past, and sometimes the worst fight the worst, and in this case, McVey and Schultz both are their worst nightmare opponents.

McVey has solid striking, he has great power in his hands but his only losses have come by submission, this does not bode well considering Schultz is primarily a grappler, and whilst McVey does have submissions under his belt, I still believe Schultz can avoid any of the quick neck attacks that McVey may use defensively, especially since Schultz does have a shorter height so the takedown angle could leave him exposed to something coming from McVey. Now, McVey is likely to be the one using his strikes to deal damage and make it frustrating for Schultz to get into grappling range to do his own thing, so I expect Schultz to try and crash into McVey, absorb some strikes but also do anything he can to get within a position in that he can get the takedown.

Schultz has a lower sample size than McVey, so I kind of just expect him to stay within his comfort zone, if he can get McVey to the ground, perhaps take the back and use his body lock to keep McVey in a particular position, he should be able to find a way to wrap up that neck or find a limb lock because Schultz does have a better BJJ game than McVey, because at its core this is a Striker versus Grappler fight. I will say though that since McVey is likely to want to keep this standing, his guard may be lowered and he may fall victim to a crashing overhand or something like that since he is going to be focusing most of his defence in either defending the takedown or avoiding the grappling scenarios completely.

Rookie breakdown, but we’re talking about two fighters who, for the most part, are first round finishers with some second round experience… Schultz has been to the third but that is a bit of an outlier, I expect a clash of styles fight here in which either McVey either gets the KO early, or Schultz gets the sub, and i’m a favourites cuck so I’m going to lean on McVey here, although the Sub angle interests me if Schultz does indeed leave his neck open to being attacked upon attempting a takedown.

McVey via KO R2 - (1/3)

Lightweight

Gauge Young (-155) (11-3-0, 2 FWS) v Stan Dorsainvil (D) (+135) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)

Young is coming into this with some solid UFC experience, with a recent split decision win against a battle tested Thiago Moises, and the one thing that stood out to me was how ready Young was, he was defending the majority of the takedowns from Moises, and whatever he did successfully get, it just simply was not enough, Young was all over Moises on the feet, outstriking him cleanly, landing from all ranges and also landing with genuinely awesome accuracy. I fully expect Young to thrive in this fight, he has had the full camp, he may have a shorter reach but reach is only useful if the fighter is useful, and I just don’t think Dorsainvil can get the job done in upsetting the odds. If the fight hits the mat, it’s entirely possible that Young could be in trouble as Dorsainvil’s length could be used in such a way that he finds a choke easier or manipulates a limb easier, but given the short notice nature of the fight, I just don’t know if he can get it done.

Dorsainvil is practically a child when it comes to experience, he is indeed undefeated and is coming off a win in a decent organisation, but experience matters here, and I have to keep swinging back to Young and his experience, especially with his fight against Moises. I apologise for those that are expecting a big fat breakdown about a 5-0 late replacement fighter who has such an advertised record (advertised as in, his submissions are likely his main route to victory, etc.), I just cannot say anything comfortably, or with any confidence here, i’m going in blind, as are a lot of us, I just think his reach will be used to both try and lock up takedowns, and to cinch up a submission.

I got Young here, he’s got a new set of eyes on him since his last fight against Moises, I really look forward to seeing what he can do against a newcomer with an opportunity of a lifetime.

Young via Dec - (1/3)

Featherweight

Marcio Barbosa (-900) (18-2-0, 5 FWS) v Ryan Kuse (D) (+615) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)

Here’s a short one.

Barbosa only has one fight in the UFC and is unfortunately lasted no longer than 90 seconds, and i’m not gonna break this one down at an extensive length because I don’t think it would do him any justice, plus, he’s a -900 favourite (or thereabouts) and we’re all probably going to blindly follow him because of those odds anyway. But there’s one thing I do enjoy seeing from Barbosa and that’s just how much he uses his head movement, he is quite defensively sound and even when he was in the thick of it during that final sequence against Buzukja, he ducked under a hook only to land a counter of his own so damn cleanly, it’s fair to say that i’m very interested in seeing what this young man can do in the future, I expect a similar style in that he gets in the face of Kuse, as he has not much of a choice given the height and reach disadvantage, and he just goes in for a combination or a tight hook. Either way, consider me genuinely intrigued here, I look forward to seeing how far Barbosa can take his career, he just needs to be tested then i’m fully on board, so far, i’m at the ticket booth ready to purchase that ticket.

Kuse has a few things I kind of want to point out here, not all of them negative, but probably a fair chunk. Kuse goes up and down in weight quite often, oscillating from Featherweight back to Bantamweight, and that’s probably a good thing, it means he has felt the power of a Featherweight before, however that’s about the extent of what I think is good, because his level of competition is in the shadows of the solid competition that Barbosa has fought, because a win over Kevin Natividad, Leandro Camargo, and an aged Thiago Belo is not as solid as the extensive wins in LFA that Barbosa has behind him. I do think that Kuse can bring some level of heat here, but I mean, Barbosa looks like he hits harder, he’s such a bulky Featherweight and so I suspect that Kuse’s chin might be a problem here. I will also note that Kuse was in camp, getting ready to fight someone called Andrew Garrette (who has a recent win against a 0-0 fighter) so cardio wise he should be fine for three rounds of action, but I think the skill gap and level of competition jump may be a bit much for Kuse.

I got Barbosa winning this one, I think we’re going to see some crisp striking, great pocket strikes, and just that momentum because getting a win over Buzukja may not be a whole lot to look at, but it was his debut fight, he made a statement, and he’s about to make another.

Barbosa via KO R1 - (2/3)

Lightweight

Nasrat Haqparast (-110) (18-6-0, NS) v Chris Padilla (-110) (17-6-1, NS)

Haqparast is coming off a KO loss against the current Australian star, Quillan Salkilld, and I don’t want to take that loss away from the legitimate threat that Haqparast has against any of his opponents still. See, I have always said that Haqparast is one of the most underrated boxers in the UFC, his boxing technique and defensive responsibility is impressive, and yes you might laugh coz he did get recently knocked out, but that headkick came out of nowhere and it occurred early on when Salkilld never threw that headkick before during the fight, thus Haqparast couldn’t get his reads going, so it was a great strike from Salkilld and just a situation that Haqparast became victim to. Now, Padilla is a different animal, he may not be a knockout artist by any means but he is an educated technician when it comes to fighting, he prepares and studies his opponents like a PhD student studies for a thesis or something, he knows a fighters tendencies, he knows their weaknesses, their weapons, their tendencies. I believe that if Padilla utilises the same tactic that Salkilld did, attack the body with kicks, chop at the legs, feint a level change, anything to lower the very raised and highly intelligent boxing guard of Haqparast, it will allow Padilla to land his own strikes up top.

Padilla is someone who I can’t not give praise to because multiple times I have doubted him and multiple times he has corrected that doubt, he has been one of those fighters who isn’t a specialist by any means, but has shut down dangerous opponents just as effectively. I won’t repeat what I said about Padilla above, but there is one thing I can see happening, so don’t think this short section of writing for Padilla is me not giving a shit about Padilla, as I have covered him above. I expect Padilla to utilise elbows intermixed with traditional strikes because Haqparast tends to lunge a lot, leaving his head and chin out there as he goes on the offensive, and if Padilla sits down, stands his ground and uses that elbow to intercept against Haqparasts offensive attacks, he should be able to deal significant damage. This is, of course, an alternative to the Salkilld route to victory in that Padilla attacks the legs and body, lowers the guard of Haqparasts and goes for the head kick, which won’t work as well due to the height disparity as Haqparast is taller, but he has a much more lowered stance.

I got Padilla here, I really, really like his educated style. He is far from a perfect fighter but he prepares exceptionally well for his opponents and that often can be enough to close the skill gap.

Padilla via Dec (1/3)

Heavyweight

Shamil Gaziev (-130) (14-3-0, 2 FLS) v Kennedy Nzechukwu (+105) (14-6-1, NS)

Gaziev is rightfully the favourite here, but I have some concerns. Before I get ahead of myself, I do think Gaziev wins the fight if he can get the wrestling going, but the problem with all of that is Gaziev tends to not be very good defensively when it comes to striking, he is coming off back to back KO losses, one of them was against Pericic, someone who doesn’t exactly have great striking fundamentals, he’s just a typical heavyweight puncher who brawls, that’s literally it, and I just think coming up against Nzechukwu, someone who can be quite dynamic at times, it’s gonna be dangerous for Gaziev, which probably explains the lines being as close as they are. I believe that Gaziev’s pathway to victory is linear, it is his wrestling and his ability to use his weight to bully that may be the biggest tool in his, well, toolbelt? Toolshed? Either way, Gaziev needs to wrestle in this fight, get Nzechukwu down, and just sap the cardio of the striker… and just you wait, the moment Sayif Saud (The Fortis MMA head coach) starts screaming repeated instructions to no action, you just know that the Fortis MMA fighter is losing the fight, it is one of the most clear indicators, and if Gaziev gets Nzechukwu to the ground, it could be a long night for Nzechukwu.

Now, Nzechuwku has good takedown defence on paper, but there are some caveats. Firstly, he hasn’t really fought great competition, he has always been a mid-tier kind of fighter who faces those who are either on the up and coming fighter list, or are active UFC fighters who have zero future in the UFC, and whose who successfully took Nzechukwu down had some sort of background in grappling or wrestling, and since Gaziev comes from KHK MMA, a notorious gym with great wrestlers and grapplers, I can only suspect that Gaziev’s wrestling will be terrible for Nzechukwu if Gaziev gets the takedowns early without absorbing any significant damage, and that’s where I can praise Nzechukwu endlessly here. Nzechukwu is such a dangerous and dynamic striker, his length, height and just has a whole lot of weaponry to rely on when striking, and if he is switched on this weekend, has very quick takedown defence and is on front foot, being aggressive, applying pressure, he can absolutely 100% get the win here, but the problem is he is often infuriating to watch, his fight IQ falls out the window like someone who publicly opposed a certain war in europe. So, I will be kind to Nzechukwu, I will make him an Alt Bet here, but I cannot bring myself to picking him.

I got Gaziev winning this one, it’s frankly a nightmare fight to predict, it could easily go either way, but I think Gaziev can really push Nzechukwu to his limits, gas him out early and just slop his way through a fat and lazy decision. Again, Alt Bet on Nzechukwu, likely KO R1 or 2 CR.

Gaziev via Dec (1/3)

Featherweight

Jamall Emmers (+310) (22-8-0, 2 FWS) v Lerryan Douglas (-400) (14-5-0, 6 FWS)

Emmers is getting a short write up here because I am extremely sold on Douglas here, so this is going to sound a bit bias, but I will try to do Emmers justice. Emmers’ last fight was against Hyder Amil, a ferocious striker who utilises a tremendous amount of volume and activity to win, he lives up to his nickname in Hurricane so for Emmers to take that fight to the scorecards is a fairly big accomplishment, and the way he did it was wrestle, he was very good at getting within the wrestling range and just taking away the firepower from Amil, 8 minutes of total control time, but on the flip side, a concerning amount of takedowns attempted. 7 of 8 takedowns landed and to only secure 8 minutes of control time isn’t that great, but what i’m trying to say here is that due to Emmers extensive career and experience, he could make this fight at least competitive, and there’s no better way to get rid of a powerful striker than to go for the level change and wrestle them either against the cage or on the ground. Emmers has a background in wrestling and a black belt in BJJ, but he is taller than Douglas and that often means having to dip into the level of punches coming from the shorter fighter, so I am curious to see what Douglas will be able to do to negate the wrestling, but I already have a couple of reads that may be a big enough counter for the wrestling attempts which I will transition right into now.

Douglas is a rising star in the UFC, it’s rare, but becoming much more common, to see someone who won in a big way in their debut have steep odds like what Douglas has, and there’s a good reason, he’s a genuinely dangerous striker to deal with and he has proven as such, granted he proved that against Julian Erosa who is the epitome of a human punching bag, but still, it was a showcase performance and it did it’s job, it showcased why Douglas is in the UFC. Now, to get back to what I was saying about Douglas and his potential counters to the wrestling of Emmers, I want to hone in on one particular thing he may do early in the first round to instantly take the thrust and lunge away from Emmers, and that’s the leg kick. Emmers is an Orthodox striker, his lead leg is normally out there ready to be kicked and if Douglas can land at least 3 leg kicks clean within the first couple of minutes, it will either make Emmers’ predictably shoot for a takedown in which Douglas will use his excellent footwork to circle away, or Emmers will have to deal with it and use his long arms to try and counter the leg kicks with jabs, either way, Douglas will have a lot of advantages on the feet which may only be countered by the physical reach and length of Emmers. Now, as I said, I’m picking Douglas, I’ll make him the lock of the night, if you don’t agree with that, let me know, we’ll have a cordial discussion and all that stuff but frankly I struggle to see Emmers winning here.

Douglas is my lean here, but again, I can’t get this itch out of my brain that Emmers could pull off an upset via Submission, the odds say its like, 15.00 or something like that, and that’s tempting to take, so keep that in mind if you want a wild lottery ticket kind of bet, but it aint so wild when you think about it… maybe i’m just being stupid, maybe it’s maybelline.

Douglas via KO R2 (2/3)

Main Card

Heavyweight

Anthony Wint (DWCS) (-1000) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Terrance Chatman (D) (+660) (5-1-0, NS)

Double debut’s usually only require a single paragraph, and given that this is a low calibre fight I think I can break it down quite succinctly. Wint only has odds like that because of his recent win on DWCS, he is an athletic monster, built like a brick shithouse and he can absolutely wrestle which is always good for Heavyweight fights. He also has the advantage when it comes to experience as well, not because of the quantity of fights but the quality of competition, lots of interesting and tough opponents in regional promotions, but promotions that are recognised for having decent talent pools and all that, whereas Chatman is just a big, heavy ass heavyweight who carries big power and probably little else. Now, what do i expect in this fight? Well, Wint should wrestle in this fight unless he is feeling very confident on the feet, I mean, I wouldn’t, but I’m not a UFC Heavyweight, i’m just heavy, so Wint is likely to take the path of least resistance here in getting the takedowns unless he goes all in within the first 60 seconds with an onslaught of attacks, because this is his debut, it’s in a big crowd and he is riding a whole heaping of momentum as he has a win just two weeks ago. Now, the way he wins isn’t a one lane road, he could either get a submission or ground and pound here, and I would be interested to see what the Submission odds look like because if it’s anything like a 2.50+ for a Sub, then I think I might bet that as a single. I do expect a KO but yeah, Submissions are definitely on the menu!

Wint via KO R1 - (2/3)

Women’s Flyweight

Carli Judice (-500) (6-2-0, 3 FWS) v Jeisla Chaves (+380) (7-0-0, 7 FWS)

Judice really shines when she’s fighting, doesn’t she? I mean, she may be somewhat new to the UFC and to MMA in general but boy she’s taken all the skills one learns in the gym and puts it to good use. Now, the biggest thing that attracts me to her as an analyst or predictor is her striking, she is very good at disrupting the pace and rhythm of her opponents, she throws with disrespectful intent and once she’s built enough momentum I think we’re going to see Judice start landing follow up shots because whilst Judice is a great striker, she tends to land singular shots for the most part, but those singular shots land cleanly and with decent power. The one thing that does stand out to me which worries me a little bit is that Judice tends to give in the first round to get her reads in, she plays it kind of safe and doesn’t adapt until she’s been victim to something, as we saw in the Miller fight she got taken down early but then dug the underhooks instantly to defend the takedowns, she’s great at adapting but she is vulnerable in the first few minutes of the first round, and if Chaves attacks her with a dangerous flurry of attacks early, it could make the first round a little spooky for Judice and any bettors.

Chaves can be a bit of a wrecking ball at times, she is dangerous to deal with on the feet, and whilst she might not have the speed advantage in this fight, I think she has the power advantage, Chaves is great at kicking range because she can then use her flurries and those step-in attacks to deal significant damage, and that’s going to be a problem for Judice early because she’s a bit of a technician, she adjusts and adapts as the fights go by, she’s likely to eat a lot of heavy attacks early just to find her timing and range later on, so I want to give Chaves a little bit of praise and hope here because she can certainly upset the odds here. This is double dangerous for Judice because Chaves can also grapple and wrestle and so Judice has to defend on two different fronts in order to stay within the fight.

I got Judice winning this fight though, I think her speed and technical skills are going to be a great equaliser to the power and force that Chaves has with her strikes, but I might sprinkle something on Chaves to win here if the odds get any wider… As i always say, i’m not a great bettor so you can take what i said there with a grain of salt.

Judice via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Marquel Mederos (+220) (11-1-0, NS) v Mason Jones (-260) (18-2-0, 7 FWS)

Mederos is such a fun striker to watch, he has a high level of accuracy and he’s quite varied with his attacks, but there’s a bit of a problem that I see from his record and that’s the quality of competition, I know that I always harp on about competition and all that stuff, but it really does matter, I think Jones is the perfect way to test whether or not Mederos belongs in the bigger UFC fights because let’s be honest, Mason Jones is an absolute freak when it comes to wrestling and grappling, there’s not many that can grapple with him and I think Mederos is going to be a bit worried about that. With that said though, Mederos should be able to bloody up Jones’ face during this fight because whilst Jones has fantastic grappling at an exceptionally high, elite, best of the best world beating level, his striking defence is completely out the window. It’s kinda like when you play Fallout and you do the SPECIAL allocation in the opening hour of the game and you put all your stats into Strength but 0 into Intelligence, that’s kind of Mederos in a nutshell (Any Fallout players here? Let me know lmao). I do think Mederos is going to be the more effective striker here, but I do wonder how much he will be able to throw before Jones goes for a takedown because Mederos certainly doesn’t want to throw too much offense, thus leave himself open to takedowns because that would be a dream scenario for Mederos, but if Jones is unable to find the timing for the takedowns due to the offensive attacks of Mederos, then we’re likely to see an upset here because once Mederos gets going, he is somewhat unstoppable.

Jones is, as I described earlier, incredibly good at grappling, he’s one of the best to ever do it from his region and I think he’s going to stick to his guns in this fight, albeit with a few bumps and scrapes along the way because that’s what Jones tends to fall for, a bit of a brawl before getting the takedown, he’s an exciting fighter and that sometimes can be a detriment to his own style or chance of winning. Jones is likely to be the one pushing forward because his goal is to back his opponents into the cage wall so that he can shoot for a takedown without having to worry about his opponent running away from it, and I think we’re going to see that takedown not be as immediate as it should be, because lets be honest, it’s gonna be a loud crowd, they’re gonna be hungry for action and goddamnit Jones is going to give it to them, so expect the first round to be all out striking with a whole bunch of “holy shit!” moments mixed in because both fighters feed off that crowd energy, but then once the first rounds over we should see Jones settle in a bit and start to employ his best weapons which is, again, his wrestling and his grappling, and since he has a longer reach than Mederos, he should have little trouble in getting that body lock takedown or anything that requires a grip.

I gotta go with Jones here, the level of competition he’s faced, the experience and mostly, the skill set are all perfect counters to what Mederos does well, and whilst you might raise a hand and say that Mederos defended a lot takedowns from Choinski, Jones is a whole different animal.

Jones via Dec (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Reinier De Ridder (-350) (21-4-0, 2 FLS) v Roman Dolidze (#13) (+270) (15-5-0, 2 FLS)

This is gonna be a goofy fight.

RDR is coming off back to back losses against Caio Borralho, and there are good and bad things I saw from RDR that concern me a tiny bit. First, his takedowns and his grappling against a very intelligent fighter was great, his length and grappling strength was impressive even though Borralho was a cheating fence grabber. Now, the entirety of the bad here was RDR’s striking defence, he would progressively push Borralho back to the fence, and the moment he got hit with something he would retreat an entire country length, all that hard work of being aggressive just to be turned around by a singular punch is never a good thing. RDR is a decent striker, I have no quarrels with his striking at all, his naked knee up the middle is one of the best attacks he has in his arsenal and I suspect he will use that extensively during this fight as a way to deter Dolidze from getting his own takedowns. Now, this fight is happening at Light Heavyweight so it’s very possible that RDR comes into this fight looking like a completely different fighter, someone who hits harder, someone who is fresher in the cage, or he could be the complete opposite in that he loses his cardio due to muscle mass and fatigues quicker, either way, his size and physique likely will fill out nicer at Light Heavyweight than it will for Dolidze, that’s my opinion at least.

Dolidze is someone who I have almost always struggled to like as a fighter, he has great wrestling and grappling, genuinely a threat to anyone on the ground, and at times his striking is brutalistic, but there have been many moments in which he has looked the opposite of everything good, he has often looked like someone who just had a bad weight cut, or was unprepared, outskilled, or outworked, he is not at all consistent as a fighter and that’s what makes this one interesting because if he is indeed switched on and ready, he could make this a dangerous fight for RDR, but at the end of the day, I just don’t know if he can get the job done against a younger, and potentially fresher RDR. See, RDR is a goofy fighter, he doesn’t do anything in a traditional sense, he does things with absolute chaos and clumsiness, and that’s a good and bad thing because you cannot prepare for that kind of style, but you can certainly stick to your guns and figure it out as the fight goes on. So, my question for this one is simple, is Dolidze going to be on the reactive side of this fight, reacting to everything RDR does on the feet or on the ground, or is he going to be disrespectful towards RDR as a fighter should, land his own strikes first, push RDR back and never let RDR get close?

This is a nightmare fight to predict because there are quite a few questions on both sides, but I do believe that RDR at 205 could be a different animal than we see when he fought at 185, that and let’s be honest, he’s taking on a lesser opponent than he’s used to in Dolidze. I wonder whose going to secure the first takedown as both fighters are equally bad with takedown defence. Also, for betting, maybe sprinkle something on a Dolidze Knockdown (that is Dolidze scores a knockdown) because RDR tends to get dropped alot, dudes got the balance of a newborn horse.

RDR via Dec (1/3)

.Co-Main Event

Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac (#8) (+140) (18-6-0, NS) v Vitor Petrino (-170) (14-2-0, 3 FWS)

Spivac should be able to utilise his wrestling in this fight to shut down a lot of the offensive capabilities that Petrino tends to rely on during his own fights, but there’s a thing that really irks me whenever I see Spivac fight, and that’s his unathletic athleticism… and that’s a weird contradicting bunch of words right? Well, he’s athletic with his takedowns but he’s also just a slow fighter with minimal explosiveness and near zero desperation for any kind of takedown, he used to be a very good takedown artist but either age, or wear and tear has gotten to him and he tends to be a bit slower with the entries and can’t exactly carry that same output for 3 rounds. So, for as long as this fight remains standing, Spivac is going to be torn to shreds, but the moment he gets the fight to the ground, if he can, he should be able to glide to the next round by being a very heavy, wet blanket.

With that said though… Petrino isn’t going to let Spivac walk away unharmed, his striking and kickboxing ability is impeccable, he is a ferociously fast striker for the weight class and even though his last three wins were against lesser levels of competition than Spivac, I do think his power is still going to be a major contributing factor to his success here, especially early on when Spivac is still trying to apply his own pressure. Footwork is also a major thing here, as Petrino can be quite light footed and that would allow him to circle away from the cage and be a hard to track target, sticking and moving as Spivac tries to hunt him down for that takedown. Either way, I can safely say that Petrino has the striking advantage in this fight and that’s practically all that needs to be said if i’m being honest.

I may take Spivac to win here, but I will 100% take Petrino as an Alt Bet because this is a 50/50 fight, i mean, even Tapology has it 50/50 which is nuts to see.

Spivac via Dec (1/3)

Main Event

Middleweight

Anthony Hernandez (#5) (-175) (15-3-0, NS) v Gregory Rodrigues (#12) (+145) (19-6-0, 3 FWS)

I will try to keep this brief because this fight feels like an “as advertised” kind of thing where we all kind of agree where each fighter has their advantages and all that.

Hernandez is coming off a KO loss against Sean Strickland and I mean, it kind of played out how we expected, either Hernandez would get the takedowns or he wouldn’t and he’d lose. This time around, he is facing a much more dangerous striker when it comes to sheer power and explosiveness, but the thing is that the explosiveness from Rodrigues doesn’t last long and he is not as fluid of a striker as Strickland is, Rodrigues looks like someone who has chronic arthritis and is nearing 50 years old, but he is built like a tank and has a well versed style that can be tricky to deal with. With that said, that leaves kind of one primary route to victory for Hernandez here and that’s to wrestle, he needs to make Rodrigues gas out very quick or else he could get hit with some disgustingly powerful strikes. Now, there is a danger zone when it comes to rounds here and that is strictly within the first two rounds, I expect, if there is to be an upset from Robocop, to be within those first two rounds because Hernandez has bad striking defence and also a really big weakness to stomach attacks, so I think we’re going to see Robocop sling some big body shots early in order to slow down Hernandez’ gas tank and thus make the fight a bit more equal. So, the longer this fight goes on, the better it might be for Hernandez depending on the amount of damage he has absorbed because Robocop is NOT an easy fighter to deal with, walking towards him is like walking towards death incarnate, it’s terrifying and I don’t speak from experience or I wouldn’t be here right now.

Rodrigues or Robocop (since I’ve already said that nickname many times now) is coming into this one with a whole lot of momentum behind him, and I genuinely think he could make an early upset happen if Hernandez isn’t careful with his approach. Robocop tends to use steady, intimidating forward pressure when on the offensive because his opponents know that whatever he throws can change the trajectory of the fight massively, and that’s going to be on Hernandez’ mind if he’s on the defensive, which is why it would be imperative for Hernandez to be the one to start the action, push Rodriguez back and just be the bully with his cardio, he needs to be all over Rodriguez like university students at an overpriced cafe they saw on Instagram. Head kick, body kick, or uppercuts are going to be the main three strikes that I am keeping an eye on from Rodriguez, because if he doesn’t land any of those it just means Hernandez will face minimal resistance in approaching Rodriguez and thus get those takedowns.

I am leaning on Rodriguez to win this one, probably a decision win, but anything in the third, fourth or fifth round should favour Hernandez due to his cardio which is quite fantastic. With that said, i’ll officially make Rodriguez an Alt Bet here, KO R1 or 2, or Sub R1 or 2, maybe both!

Hernandez via Dec (1/3)

Parlay: Dyer via KO/Points (DC) + Padilla/Haqparast Over 2.5 rounds or R3 Starts + Wint/Chatman R3 Starts No (May remove if odds are trash) + Judice via KO/Points (DC)

Locks: Barbosa and Douglas. Was considering Wint but I am very unsure about him.

Alt Bets: Nzechukwu KO R1 or 2 (CR), Petrino KO R1 or 2 (CR), Rodriguez KO R1 or 2 (CR)... and you know what? Chaves ML.

Dogs: Spivac, Padilla (i think?)

Be sure to read my Parlay Explained posts for more single bets that I recommend!

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello and welcome to this weeks Parlay Thread!

Post all of your parlays here!

You can post it via text, or image format ("formatting help" button underneath the comment box will assist in getting the image format stuff going)

I wish you all the best of luck with this weeks event!

Hello and welcome to this weekends live chat!

The rules are somewhat simple. Be cordial to all, don't be a prick and all that stuff, as well as NO STREAMING LINKS.

Main Card Start Time: 9 PM ET

Prelim Card Start Time: 5.30 PM ET

(I got this info from google's AI, so check yourself)

All on Paramount+

Hello and welcome to this weekends live chat!

The rules are somewhat simple. Be cordial to all, don't be a prick and all that stuff, as well as NO STREAMING LINKS.

Main Card Start Time: 8 PM ET

Prelim Card Start Time: 5 PM ET

All on Paramount+

Hello!

I hope we’re having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta do some admin stuff first, you know how it is!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vg0ngq/ufc_fight_night_gamrot_v_salkilld_fight/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vg0qmv/ufc_fight_night_gamrot_v_salkilld_fight/

With that said and done, lets see how UFC Belgrade went!

Parlay: Miss! (Cepo failed me!)

SBR’s: 5 of 10 hit (including some nice hits like Luciano Sub and Valentin Sub (CR))

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

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Parlay Leg 1: Sousa/Miranda ITD (1.60) Sportsbet

This is going to be an absolute banger, Sousa is known for his punching power and his general mean-ness in the cage, whereas Miranda has the ability and the length to get this fight to the ground in which he could find a submission, either way, we are about to see some brilliant violence from both fighters here, and that tends to lead to a finish!

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Parlay Leg 2: Thainara ML (1.41) Sportsbet

I mean Thainara’s just got the tools to get the job done, we know that Lemos suffers from the inability to get back up from the ground, so once Thainara inevitably gets the fight to the ground, I think we’re just going to see a rinse and repeat as the rounds go by with Lemos’s cardio diminishing each round.

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Parlay Leg 3: Del Valle via KO/Points (1.53) Sportsbet

So, this bet is heavily revolved around Del Valle keeping the fight standing, because we know that Elkins will go for a handful of takedowns almost immediately, he is a wrestler in every sense of the word, but defensively he is flawed and Del Valle should be able to slice open Elkins and that could then lead to either a doctor stoppage, or just enough visuals for the judges to score the rounds clearly for Del Valle.

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Parlay Leg 4: Ferreira/Quarantillo ITD (1.34) Sportsbet

We’re talking about two fighter who are very heavy handed, with Quarantillo having the cardio to push a nasty pace in the third round, both swinging big attacks at each other’s terrible chins, I mean, the odds pretty much scream that the fights likely to end in a finish.

Total Odds: 4.62 (Boosted from 4.41)

Total Payout: $23.12

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SINGLE BET RECOMMENDATIONS (Excluding Parlay Legs)

Miller/Oliveira

Alt. Round Betting - Miller R3 or Dec - 2.45

I just think Miller is going to look more active on the feet, probably get takedowns, maybe a submission but I just don’t think that’s going to happen.

Sutherland/Montanha

Over 1.5 Rounds - 1.61

Bit of a boring one, but I at least expect 7.5 minutes of no finishes happening, and if so, there is an Alt Bet on Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR)

Nurgozhay/Lopes

Over 1.5 Rounds - 1.72

Again, I just don’t see an early finish happening here, 1.5 rounds is all we’re asking for here.

Asplund/Pat

Asplund via KO R1 or 2 (CR) - 3.15

Just a regular ol’ heavyweight fight that involves to big boys swangin and bangin.

Miller/Goff

Miller via KO R2 or 3 (CR) - 4.10

I think Goff will be alright in the first round, he might fight very defensively and thus lead to the second round starting, which fits nicely into this bet, that is, if Miller gets the KO.

Salkilld/Gamrot

Inside The Distance - 1.59

Nothing special here, there’s a lot of bets you can make that involve method and combo rounds, but otherwise I just think we’re going to see a finish.

And that’s it!

Any questions or feedback, let me know!

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Episode 71 Lord Ninja Choke:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vg0ngq/ufc_fight_night_gamrot_v_salkilld_fight/?

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PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2412 - 1385, 215 Perfect | 579 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 70% (+0.4%)

Lock Record: 33 - 7 (Oliveira and Medic won)

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UFC Belgrade Recap

Prediction Results: 11/14 Correct, 2 Perfect (Medic and Leka)

Parlay: Missed (Cepo is not my friend)

Alt Bets: All three missed.

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Profit/Loss for 2026: -13.8u

(Terrible, but my SBR’s (Single Bet Recommendations) that I showcase on my Parlay Explained Posts saved me from a terrible betting event.)

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You guys remember how last week I was worried about my prediction accuracy/results for UFC Belgrade?

Well, lets pick up that worry and drop it off for this event because good lord this is like the boss fight of Apex Cards, it just screams Apex doesn’t it? With that said, I will say that I am indeed worried about a whole lot here, but out of obligation and love of the game, i’ll do a write up and i’ll try to narrow down the right bets to make and the predictions to… take?

Expect quite a few Alt Bets here, typically the most i’ve ever had is 4, I will attempt to keep it at 4, but it’s gonna be a challenge.

(Alt Bets are 0.6u bets (3 dollars) that I allocate to 3.50 or higher priced odds on an opposing pick fighter. If I pick fighter X to win, Fighter Y would be an Alt Bet if I see them pulling something off)

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

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Prelims

Women’s Flyweight

Juliana Miller (-260) (4-4-0, NS) v Ravena Oliveira (+205) (7-4-1, 3 FLS)

Striking: Both are somewhat mediocre, Miller tends to be stuck in the “just woke up, where’s my coffee” gear, whereas Oliveira can come out guns blazing but she’s sloppy with it. So… its a very interesting match up on the feet.

Wrestling/Grappling: This could be where Miller can pull ahead on the scorecards, she has attempted nearly a dozen takedowns against Judice in her last time out and that’s probably telling that if she can’t get her strikes going, she’ll attempt to wrestle.

Additional Notes: This is a terrible fight, but it also intrigues me because there’s a chance of an upset here. I did say in the main write up that I am looking for Oliveira via KO/Points as an Alt Bet opportunity, only if the odds are nice, so I will write that down “officially” but I may not play it if its not over 3.50 (which is usually the threshold)

Prediction: Miller via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Oliveira via KO/Points

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Bantamweight

Miles Johns (-155) (15-5-0, 3 FLS) v Jessie Rosas (D) (+130) (8-1-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: I don’t think either fighter is particularly good on the feet, but i’d argue that Johns is the slightly more well rounded striker, whereas Rosas looks to be a bit more limited with, from what I can see, only his left straight being his most dangerous strike.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Johns should absolutely thrive, he has a background in wrestling, he is the wrestler in this fight and I think if things get a bit too heated on the feet (and it will considering Rosas is the younger, more cocky fighter) we’ll see Johns’ using his wrestling quite a lot in this one.

Additional Notes: The losing streak of Johns does not concern me one little itty bitty bit, they’re losses to incredibly tough opponents.

Prediction: Johns via Dec (1/3)

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Lightweight

Manoel Sousa (-250) (14-1-0, 3 FWS) v Richie Miranda (D) (+205) (13-1-0, 7 FWS)

Striking: Sousa should be the main striker in this fight, he possesses incredible power in his hands, and he isn’t afraid to extend the combinations, the only problem is that he has a shorter length so he might have to risk entering the pocket and colliding with Miranda to deal some damage.

Wrestling/Grappling: Now, Miranda typically uses his grappling and wrestling to win fights, either by getting the submission, or getting the ground and pound finish, he’s versatile on the ground and his reach could very well be used in a way that helps him get the body lock takedowns. Is he going to successfully achieve that against a heavy hitter like Sousa? I am not sure, but it’s his only route to victory.

Additional Notes: I will make Miranda an Alt Bet here given that he has experienced decent competition before, being an LFA champ and whatnot, so the Alt Bet here will be Submission based and probably a combo round bet!

Prediction: Sousa via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR) | Parlay: ITD

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Heavyweight

Jose Montanha (+165) (6-1-0, 3 FWS) v Louie Sutherland (-190) (11-5-0, NS)

Striking: I don’t think anyone in the world can comfortably say who has the better striking, they are both absolutely god awful and atrocious fighters and I can’t believe I have to write about it.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is basically a Wrestler (Sutherland) versus Grappler (Montanha). If Sutherland can get the takedowns and most specifically maintain half mount, he should be safe from a lot of the submission threat from Montanha, but that’s a lot of If’s isn’t it? What a hellish fight.

Additional Notes: Does Sutherland even have a neck to snatch? Because he often goes for takedowns with such fatigued desperation that he leaves himself open for guillotines and front head lock chokes, which leads me to believe that Montanha via Sub could be a decent Alt Bet… Decisions decisions! I mean, officially i’ve already got him down as an Alt Bet, but I feel like there’s just going to be a shitload of Alt Bets here.

Prediction: Sutherland via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR)

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Light Heavyweight

Diyar Nurgozhay (-160) (11-2-0, NS) v Bruno Lopes (+135) (14-3-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Both are dangerous strikers, but I think speed might favour Nurgozhay here, he’s more snappy and explosive, which is probably why he gets taken down so often and has those two submission losses in his UFC record. Lopes is a bit more traditional with his striking, a lot more clean and just sharp.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Lopes could very much once again expose Nurgozhay’s somewhat already exposed grappling defence issue, I think we’re going to see Lopes level change if things get a bit too heated.

Additional Notes: I have a feeling that Bruno is going to try and time something off one of Nurgozhay’s tics, but again, I have no genuine idea on who is going to win this one, it’s a chaotic fight, anything can happen.

Prediction: Nurgozhay via KO R2 (1/3)

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Heavyweight

Steven Asplund (-250) (7-2-0, NS) v Guilherme Pat (+195) (6-1-0, NS)

Striking: Asplund is perhaps the more visceral fighter, he has shown the ability to crash into his opponents with significant force, almost similar to Tuivasa does, so expect in the early rounds to see that kind of style and power from Asplund.

Wrestling/Grappling: I hope there’s no grappling, but if there is I don’t know if Pat would be the one to pull it off, it would be his path of least resistance but also I just hope we’re in for a classic slobber knocker.

Additional Notes: I have a bit of a soft spot for Asplund… the dudes grown on me, I mean his story is so inspirational and he’s a genuinely good guy and i’m not trying to add that “he’s a great person” narrative anywhere near my write ups, but it’s just something you can’t ignore haha

Prediction: Asplund via KO R2 (1/3)

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Main Card

Welterweight

Ty Miller (-290) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Billy Ray Goff (+235) (9-4-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Miller and his massive reach advantage is likely to be problematic for Goff, I think it’s going to be evident from the get go that at range Miller should be able to land the cleaner strikes, stick and move, all that stuff.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is something that Goff has a legitimate chance to utilise, his background is technically wrestling although it’s not NCAA levels of wrestling from what I could discern. So, slight nod to Goff with having the wrestling edge, I just don’t know how effective it is going to be.

Additional Notes: This fight could be an opener on the prelims on a PPV or a normal Fight Night, but it’s the Apex so it’s in the main card I suppose!

Prediction: Miller via KO R2 (1/3)

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Women’s Strawweight

Amanda Lemos (#11) (+195) (15-6-1, 2 FLS) v Alexia Thainara (#13) (-240) (14-1-0, 12 FWS)

Striking: Lemos is a devastating striker, her power is hard to be matched in the division and I think Thainara is going to feel that heat during the first round, I mean, any round really, but likely the first because she’s probably got the gas tank for massive first round output only followed by dwindling output in later rounds, depending on Thainara’s answer.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Thainara can absolutely dominate, her wrestling and top control is fan-fucking-tastic, and I suspect that we’re going to see a clean style of wrestling here from Thainara, with close chest to chest top control which would sap the cardio slowly of Lemos, because Lemos would try to explode out of those positions, thus creating a diminishing output in later rounds due to using cardio defensively to try and get out of worse positions.

Additional Notes: I really like Thainara in this fight, plus Lemos is getting up there in age, there’s a 10 year age gap, all that stuff, so logically you’d take Thainara to win, right?

Prediction: Thainara via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Thainara ML

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Featherweight

Darren Elkins (+520) (29-12-0, NS) v Yadier Del Valle (-800) (10-1-0, NS)

Striking: I mean Del Valle’s striking is great, but its not so much the striking that I see being more effective here, I just think that Del Valle can generally damage Elkins enough to open up cuts and stuff which might lead to a doctor stoppage, doctor stoppage is genuinely a thing that I think will happen here provided Del Valle does the necessary damage, which he should.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Elkins can thrive, if he can avoid being cut open, I suspect that we’ll see Elkins use his wrestling very effectively here unless Del Valle has improved his takedown defence since his last fight against Leavitt. Wrestling is all on the side of Elkins here.

Additional Notes: Elkins, scar tissue, age… there are so many things to consider here, but I hate the odds here, I think Elkins deserves a bit more respect than being a +whatever he is, thus, I am making Elkins an Alt Bet here, Sub/Points double chance.

Prediction: Del Valle via KO R3 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Elkins via Sub/Points (DC) | Parlay: Del Valle via KO/Points

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Co-Main Event

Lightweight

Billy Quarantillo (+150) (18-7-0, 2 FLS) v Diego Ferreira (-185) (19-7-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Ferreira likely hits harder than Quarantillo considering that Ferreira carries Welterweight power and has the 4 inch reach advantage, so he should comfortably land shots outside of Quarantillo’s reach, as well as follow through with more force if he crashes in. Quarantillo’s striking defence is to absorb and survive strikes, he’s tough and gritty but that’s about it.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t know how the wrestling would look in this fight, there will be some wrestling exchanges I think, but I genuinely can’t wrap my head around who would be more advantageous here.

Additional Notes: Just a bunch of unc’s banging it out, what’s not to love here. Jokes aside, I am worried about Quarantillo’s chin here as he moves up to a heavier weight class against someone who moved down from a heavier weight class (he’s a big lightweight, bulky, more power, etc)

Prediction: Ferreira via KO R2 (1/3) | Parlay: Inside The Distance

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Main Event

Lightweight

Mateusz Gamrot (#11) (+110) (26-4-0, NS) v Quillan Salkilld (#14) (-135) (12-1-0, 12 FWS)

Striking: This one’s kind of easy and simple, Salkilld has superior striking, he’s got the 5 inch reach advantage, he’s comfortable on the feet, but the big question is whether or not he’ll be frozen as he prepares to defend the dozens of takedowns coming from Gamrot. Plus, Gamrot tends to look hurt or rocked each time he fights a striker so I sense a familiar pattern repeating.

Wrestling/Grappling: Gamrot is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC, he has accolades on top of accolades, GOATED and all those other fancy words, so I genuinely think that Gamrot, if he was to execute a perfect gameplan, can dominate on the ground, maintain top control, wear down Salkilld for the first two rounds before Salkilld’s submission defence gets diminished due to fatigue, thus allowing for a submission to potentially sneak in on those last three rounds, that’s an official take, R3, 4 or 5 Sub (Combo Rounds) for Gamrot is something i’m going to 100% take as an Alt Bet.

Additional Notes: WAR SALKILLD (Sorry, Australian + big fan already, some favouritism involved here)

Prediction: Salkilld via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

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Parlay: Sousa/Miranda ITD + Thainara ML + Del Valle via KO/Points (DC) (Bad odds maybe) + Quarantillo/Ferreira ITD

Locks: Thainara

Alt Bets: Oliveira via KO/Points, Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Elkins via Sub/Points and finally Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

Dogs: Once again, no dogs… but as I always say, my Alt Bets are at least hints towards what I think are potential upsets. They’re just not picks.

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello!

I hope you're all doing well!

Episode 71 Lord Ninja Choke:

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vg0qmv/ufc_fight_night_gamrot_v_salkilld_fight/?

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PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2412 - 1385, 215 Perfect | 579 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 70% (+0.4%)

Lock Record: 33 - 7 (Oliveira and Medic won)

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UFC Belgrade Recap

Prediction Results: 11/14 Correct, 2 Perfect (Medic and Leka)

Parlay: Missed (Cepo is not my friend)

Alt Bets: All three missed.

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Profit/Loss for 2026: -13.8u

(Terrible, but my SBR’s (Single Bet Recommendations) that I showcase on my Parlay Explained Posts saved me from a terrible betting event.)

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You guys remember how last week I was worried about my prediction accuracy/results for UFC Belgrade?

Well, lets pick up that worry and drop it off for this event because good lord this is like the boss fight of Apex Cards, it just screams Apex doesn’t it? With that said, I will say that I am indeed worried about a whole lot here, but out of obligation and love of the game, i’ll do a write up and i’ll try to narrow down the right bets to make and the predictions to… take?

Expect quite a few Alt Bets here, typically the most i’ve ever had is 4, I will attempt to keep it at 4, but it’s gonna be a challenge.

(Alt Bets are 0.6u bets (3 dollars) that I allocate to 3.50 or higher priced odds on an opposing pick fighter. If I pick fighter X to win, Fighter Y would be an Alt Bet if I see them pulling something off)

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Flyweight

Juliana Miller (-260) (4-4-0, NS) v Ravena Oliveira (+205) (7-4-1, 3 FLS)

This is a rather uncomfortable one to talk about because for as much as Miller looks like the “better” fighter on paper, her being -260 is just gnarly. See, Miller does have a legitimate chance to win this one considering the competition she has faced, but she is also someone who looks so disinterested with fighting, her entire demeanour is not one that you typically see a fighter have, she looks slow, lanky, laboured and otherwise bored, and whilst her skill set remains somewhat solid, I feel like she struggles to get out first gear and that could potentially lead to her losing against Oliveira here, especially if Oliveira is much more hungry and determined than Miller. One other thing to keep in mind here is that Oliveira tends to oscillate between Bantamweight and Flyweight quite often during her career, so any question about Oliveira looking smaller in comparison to Miller should be put in the bin straight away because outside of a minor reach and height advantage, Miller doesn’t offer a whole lot of advantages overall.

Now, speaking of offering a whole lot, it was hard to see anything positive come from Oliveira because she’s been on the losing end of two terrible performances in which she got outclassed cleanly. Now, i’m gonna be brutal here in saying that whilst Oliveira has decent power in her hands, she lacks any bit of finesse that allows that power to land, she often over-reaches with her strikes, she over swings with her kicks, and everything just looks so sloppy and so telegraphed, I mean, the first example I want to show or at least mention here is that fight against Luciano, in the first round Oliveira threw a one-two down the line which looked like she was trying to reach through the fourth dimension to hit Luciano, everything Oliveira throws just isn’t tight, it’s not clean, and whilst she is a very powerful striker when she lands, she cannot deliver that power in an effective manner. However, Miller has horrific, and I mean horrific, striking defence and that’s the only thing that Oliveira has going for her in this fight, if Oliveira can get within striking range to land her one-two combination (which she does land quite often, it seemingly is her favourite combination) then we could see Miller get rocked early.

So, you might ask “Slayer what the fuck is your point?”. My point is that whilst I am siding with the favourite here because she has the pressure and she can make a fight real nasty… Expect early moments of danger for her from Oliveira’s one-two, because as a pressure fighter you HAVE to absorb strikes, you HAVE to get hit (Merab is an example here). I got Miller winning this one, but I am also going to put Oliveira as an Alt Bet, at least for now, but if the odds aren’t nice (for a KO/Points Double Chance) then i’ll leave it.

Miller via Dec (1/3)

Bantamweight

Miles Johns (-155) (15-5-0, 3 FLS) v Jessie Rosas (D) (+130) (8-1-0, 3 FWS)

A losing streak only looks bad if the competition is terrible, and to lose to Daniel Marcos, Jean Matsumoto (in a split decision!) and Felipe Lima… those aren’t losses, those are hard fought battles in that imprints experience onto a fighter, and you best believe the already experienced Johns is bringing that history into the cage this weekend against the very young Jessie Rosas. I do believe we are going to see a fairly tactical fight from Johns, because not only is he facing a fiery tornado of a fighter who is young and cocky, but he also doesn’t want to lose for a fourth time in a row. Now, Johns fighting tactically could be concerning because if Rosas comes in with a heavy handed gameplan, Johns is going to lose that battle and lose the first round almost cleanly, so my read on that “tactical” style from Johns may be wrong or detrimental, but I just don’t know what else he can do here outside of using a wrestle heavy approach to slow down the younger fighter, dragging Rosas into deep waters and showcasing that there is a reason that Johns has been a long time UFC fighter.

Rosas has a pretty record at first glance, right? You’d think that he was one of those next generation fighters that is on the up and up… until you look at who he has fought against and realise that there’s nothing too special about him, he has wins against losing record fighters, including against a fairly older fighter which was his most recent bout in which he won in the fifth round, so I don’t quite see Rosas being too fantastic, he is still a big unknown but considering that his level of competition is shallow compared to what Johns has faced, I can’t help but think that we’re just seeing a “filler fighter” take on a genuine talent in Johns. The one thing I do think we should keep an eye out for though is Rosas’ left straight, he is quite good at throwing that, both without a set up, and as a follow up strike, but outside of that I don’t think we’re going to see anything too crazy from the newcomer.

I got Johns winning this fight, because his losing streak, as I said before, isn’t too terrible to look at, they’re all mean competition so I think that matters quite a fair bit.

Johns via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Manoel Sousa (-250) (14-1-0, 3 FWS) v Richie Miranda (D) (+205) (13-1-0, 7 FWS)

Alright, this is a fascinating match up.

Sousa is coming off a fantastic fight against Bolaji Oki, and whilst I do think we’re going to see a similar approach from Sousa this weekend, which is steady forward pressure, a whole bunch of feints and some devastating power, I am also a tiny bit worried about Sousa’s grappling defence and takedown offense against Miranda. Now, you might ask “What’s so bad about takedown offense!?” and the only answer I have for you is that I have seen Sousa look for takedowns before but leave his neck exposed for a front headlock choke (guillotine, d’arce, anaconda, all that stuff), and since Miranda does have longer arms than Sousa, that’s only going to help Miranda in getting those submissions locked in. Now, Sousa is a fantastic striker, he is built like a tank, throws heavy, but also sets up his attacks with layers of feints and different looks, Oki was pretty much biting on every feint coming from Sousa which resulted in Sousa landing effectively because of the overstimulation, and I think we’re going to see a similar approach here with Sousa using his feints to make Miranda bite on something, before throwing a powerful overhand right or a right straight. Make no mistake, Sousa is rightfully a favourite, but that is only because he has the initial striking advantage, on the ground, it could be an entirely different story.

We all know that pure BJJ fighters never belong in the UFC, or if they do, they are a rare breed in which they adapt well enough to be well rounded. Miranda is not at all a pure BJJ fighter by any means, but he does use his wrestling and grappling a lot to find success during his fights, and whilst I think he will be most likely outgunned on the feet, it is entirely possible for Miranda to get the fight to the ground if there is a lot of fence fighting involved because the longer limbs of Miranda should allow a body lock to be a bit more effective and maybe lead to a successful trip. Either way, each fight starts standing and whilst Miranda is a decent wrestler, I think we’re going to see perhaps the forward pressure from Sousa be too much for Miranda, because power can be both a psychological factor as well as a physical one, and Sousa’s feints should be able to overwhelm Miranda early on, leading to some scary moments for the LFA Lightweight champ.

I have half a mind to sprinkle something on Miranda getting the submission, we’ve seen crazier things recently, but overall I think Sousa should be rightfully the favourite, Sousa is just such a dangerous striker, I mean the way he put away Oki was just terrifying. I don’t know if the Miranda Sub bet will be an official Alt Bet or not, but its something i’m very much thinking about.

Sousa via KO R2 - (1/3)

Heavyweight

Jose Montanha (+165) (6-1-0, 3 FWS) v Louie Sutherland (-190) (11-5-0, NS)

This is quite the sad looking fight.

Montanha is one of those “filler fighter” fighters that I was hinting at before when I was talking about Rosas, he does not at all belong in the UFC, not with the level of competition that he has faced, I mean his entire record is against either near zero experience fighters, or fighters with terrible records themselves. Sure, he has the physique and the heavyweight power to turn this fight around into his favour, but I just can’t wrap my head around why he’s in the UFC! Okay, sure he could present some submission threats on the ground because that’s where Sutherland can sometimes take fights, but if the fight remains standing, Sutherland is quite capable of landing heavy attacks himself, so Montanha kind of has to be careful when dealing with Sutherland within the initial round, because hesitancy can create openings that Sutherland can capitalise on. Again, to circle back around to Montanha and his submission capabilities, he could get much be active enough on the ground to land something in the guard or even in the transition to the ground in which he snatches a neck, but either way, I just don’t know what Montanha can do here against Sutherland outside of those submissions.

Sutherland is a fighter that I genuinely dislike talking about because he is the antithesis of what a heavyweight UFC fighter should be, he is not at all fun to watch unless he’s getting his ass handed to him, and with his only win in the UFC being a decision hug fest against Tuivasa, I can’t help but think that Sutherland is just one of those fighters who looks good if they’re executing their gameplan but looks god awful if they can’t. Sutherland needs to be in top control to be useful, it is a requirement, if he is on bottom he is incapable of doing anything great, if he is on the feet he can use a decent one-two combination as well as decent leg kicks, but it’s his top control that is his highlight, and in the Heavyweight world, that’s terrible and boring but it works. Can it work against Montanha? I don’t know, this is a big “I don’t know what’s going to happen” fight, but I do suspect that Montanha can snatch a front choke somewhere during the takedown transition, so in the first round, expect a submission attempt from Montanha because Sutherlands takedowns are more telegraphed than an advertisement on Paramount+ that overtakes the walkout.

I have to go with Sutherland here, he’s more of a known fighter, he should be able to be tricky enough on the feet to give Montanha a few things to think about, especially that leg kick, and then the takedowns could be there as long as Sutherland doesn’t telegraph them too much, which he does, so, officially, I got Sutherland winning this one, but I will give Montanha a Combo Round Sub Alt Bet thing.

Sutherland via Dec (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Diyar Nurgozhay (-160) (11-2-0, NS) v Bruno Lopes (+135) (14-3-0, 2 FLS)

This hopefully should be a short one.

Nurgozhay is coming off a decent win against newcomer Rafael Tobias, in which Nurgozhay defended the takedowns well enough to keep the fight standing for the most part, and there was really one thing that stood out to me as a key tool that Nurgozhay used during that fight that may be used once again during this one, and that’s the leg kicks, if Nurgozhay can shut down the power coming from Lopes by taking away the lead leg, there should be a noticeable drop off in mobility and power from Lopes after the first round, because I do suspect that the first round is going to be a bit of a tit for tat fight. Outside of that leg kick opportunity from Nurgozhay, I think it’s a quite even fight, with Lopes having the ability to create an upset if he times his strikes well, but the problem with that is Lopes has been knocked out twice in a row, and I am one of those people who thinks brain health is important, and again, I have to question whether or not Lopes can withstand a clean strike from Nurgozhay after the first round, or even within the first but if my read is correct and that Nurgozhay takes his time, chops at the legs of Lopes and just softens him up with body and head strikes with no significant swing, then the second round KO could very much happen.

Lopes is a tough one to figure out because he has been on the losing end of some terrible KO’s which worry me, and since he’s taking on a fairly sharp striker once again, I just don’t know how he is going to fight. Often times when a fighter is on back to back losses, especially by KO, they tend to fight a bit more cautiously, so if that’s the case then Nurgozhay should have no problem in softening up his target in that first round, but if hunger and desperation become a major part of Lopes mentality, then we could very much see an explosive onset of attacks that could catch Nurgozhay off guard, especially since Nurgozhay has that quite noticeable tic when he wipes away at his eyebrow, and whilst that tic is quick, it’s still very much something I can imagine Lopes and his team has prepared for. The other thing that could happen here is that Lopes gets the fight to the ground using takedowns and trips, leading to Nurgozhay once again having to deal with the possibility that he could get submitted, and that’s been a bit of a curse for Nurgozhay during his UFC career so far, having lost twice to a submission, and whilst Lopes is probably more of a kickboxer than a grappler, he still has that skill set to rely on if things get too heated on the feet. I mean, he used his wrestling fairly well against Gadzhiyasulov in his debut to mixed effect, so we could very well see Lopes put his wrestling shoes on once again, shoot quickly in the first to shut down Nurgozhay from setting a pace, and then do his business on the ground, the volatility of this fight is insane.

From a prediction standpoint, I am leaning towards Nurgozhay here, I think we’re going to see a slow and steady first round followed by an increase in tempo from Nurgozhay as he hunts to land bigger shots, but I am also keenly aware that Lopes could fight intelligently, get the fight to the ground and thus try to replicate what Ribeiro and Satybaldiev did against Nurgozhay.

Nurgozhay via KO R2 (1/3)

Heavyweight

Steven Asplund (-250) (7-2-0, NS) v Guilherme Pat (+195) (6-1-0, NS)

Asplund has been a bit of an inspiration story for many, and that’s perhaps why he has garnered so much attention, because as a fighter he isn’t anything too special, he’s gritty and tough in the cage but he doesn’t stand out as a high level such and such, he’s just a very good heavyweight who is somewhat well rounded. Now, Asplund does his best work when he throws more than one strike, he is great at the standard lead to power side attacks, any attack that comes in two strikes tends to be his best attack because anything more and he tends to be defensively sloppy, so two strikes in a combination is usually his best weapon. Now, defensively, he can move around quite well, he can be a hard target, but if he is at a speed disadvantage he struggles, as you could see with the Petrino fight. I do think we are likely to see Asplund look to land combinations early whilst he has the power and explosiveness to land.

Pat is not a UFC calibre fighter, and I know he has a win in the UFC but he has yet to prove that he can be someone who can break into the actual UFC roster, instead of, you know, inexperienced fighters on the UFC roster. Pat does have a reach advantage and that may prove to be the biggest challenge for Asplund who tends to always crash into his opponent, so we’ll see if Pat utilises his long strikes during this fight and keeps his footwork going as he sticks and moves away from the wrecking ball power of Asplund. With that said though, sticking and moving, as a heavyweight, in the Apex, can only get you so far, the Apex is smaller, and Asplund can perhaps find his target a little easier due to those strikes, so I am fully expecting Asplund to find his success using his flurries in the first half of the fight, but mostly in that first round, he almost always looks his most dangerous in that first round.

I got Asplund winning this one, I think he’s just the better fighter overall, and having faced Petrino in those three rounds of violence, I think we might even see a level up from Asplund come this weekend!

Asplund via KO R1 (1/3)

Main Card

Welterweight

Ty Miller (-290) (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Billy Ray Goff (+235) (9-4-0, 2 FLS)

In any other card, this fight would not at all interest me, but since it’s in the main card, I suppose I have to pay attention to it a tiny bit more than I should.

Miller has obvious attributes that stand out to me, and perhaps to all of you, and that’s his height and reach, he is a big boy for this division and I have no doubt that we’re going to see his length be used effectively during this fight, or at least he should if he was smart enough to do so. The fact of the matter is that Miller is still a greenie, he only has one win in the UFC and that was against Fugitt, a fairly tough opponent, but it wasn’t a long-lasting fight, finishing only in the final seconds of the first round. I highly suspect that Miller is going to stick to his natural advantages in that he will use his reach effectively to keep Goff at bay before landing more significant shots, but that’s the extent to what I’m comfortable to predict because as I said, we’ve only seen 5 minutes of him fighting in the UFC, his 5 inch reach advantage is massive and I suspect we’ll just see a clean style of striking from Miller.

Goff is someone who has yet to really gain much momentum, his only win was against Kinoshita a couple of years ago, and has since lost twice against Trey Waters and Ramiz Brahimaj, and whilst i’m already sounding like i’m counting him out, I want to point out on main thing that Goff can do in this fight to upset the odds and defeat the undefeated greenie, and that’s wrestle. It’s something Goff tends to do in almost all of his fights, he’s got somewhat of a background in wrestling although he’s far from anything collegiate, so whilst he can sometimes find comfort in using his wrestling, I don’t know to what extent he can chain wrestle or wrestle at a high level. Either way, I think we’re going to see Goff try and shut down the reach advantage of Miller by wrestling, I mean, he’s shorter so the level change can have more penetration but other than that I struggle to see how he can outstrike the longer fighter.

So, in conclusion, this is a fight I have quite low confidence in, because whilst Miller does look like an appealing favourite to take, it will have to be a low confidence one, considering that Goff does have a legit road to victory. Either way, I will side with Miller, I can’t ignore that reach advantage, but yeah, I would be interested to see how Goff handles the reach discrepancy here.

Miller via KO R2 (1/3)

Women’s Strawweight

Amanda Lemos (#11) (+195) (15-6-1, 2 FLS) v Alexia Thainara (#13) (-240) (14-1-0, 12 FWS)

This is going to be short, not out of dislike of this fight, but because this one is fairly bland to even think about.

Lemos has consistently been a bit of a marauder that constantly loses, she’s excellent when dealing damage and being the aggressor, but the moment she gets outwrestled even a tiny bit, she tends to fall apart. Now, age is a factor here that is ever so prominent because time is not on her side, and since she’s facing someone whose 10 years younger than her, but just as talented and dangerous, we’re likely to see Lemos do what Lemos does best, start out with a heavy output of attacks, be a wild fighter, try and bully Thainara in those first 5 minutes just to try and make Thainara uncomfortable in there, all of this success from Lemos stems primarily from her stand up attacks, she possesses incredible power in her hands and I think we’re going to the first round being her best round, only for as long as the fight remains standing, I know i’ve said that like, 3 times now, but that’s the only read I have here, Lemos has the striking advantage but that advantage is on borrowed time because eventually she’s going to get taken down, and once she gets taken down, she’s likely to stay there because Thainara’s grappling is just so damn good. So, don’t count Lemos out completely here, but her options or routes to success are limited, as is Thainara’s to some extent.

Thainara has been demolishing competition recently, she is someone who legitimately sticks to her guns, wastes very little time in executing her gameplan, and has a genuine bright future ahead of her. Now, as I said, she is probably going to feel some heat early on due to the chaotic nature of Lemos’s striking output, she’s a wild striker, can throw unorthodox stuff and just hits disgustingly hard, so Thainara is going to have to walk through fire to get her wrestling going, and I suspect that her slight edge reach advantage is going to help with her locking in the takedown grip. One she’s in top control she should have no problem gliding around the defensive submissions and motions that Lemos uses, and all that does is also use up Lemos’s gas tank, something that she may not have after a weight cut anyway.

So, to break it down simply, Lemos’ success stems strictly from her striking output in the early rounds, she is the more dangerous striker in my opinion, but that’s practically it because once Thainara gets the fight to the ground (not a matter of if, but when) we’ll probably see a rinse and repeat for the remaining rounds and thus a secure, comfortable victory for the up and coming fighter.

Thainara via Dec (2/3)

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (+520) (29-12-0, NS) v Yadier Del Valle (-800) (10-1-0, NS)

Why did they sanction this fight!?

Elkins requires no introduction, if you are a long time MMA fan or viewer you know Elkins and what he is known for, he is a highly dangerous wrestler who has more scar tissue than healthy skin, he gets cut open as easily as any of the Diaz brothers, and he’s just someone who we all know will constantly be in the face of his opponent, still fighting even though he’s lost a crapload of blood. Elkins is unfortunately at that age now in which it’s very hard to give him any more praise than “he’s tough!”, his wrestling may very well hold up still, but at some point, that damage he absorbs may become too much and the ref could easily call the fight as a doctor stoppage TKO thing, that’s a very likely outcome. Now, with that said, the wrestling of Elkins could become problematic for Del Valle if Del Valle has not learnt from his loss against Leavitt, in which Leavitt took him down numerous times and had great success in keeping him down. Normally for a fighter as young and as talented as Del Valle, they tend to make great strides in camp to improve the deficiencies that were shown in their previous fight, and I hope that’s the case here, but Elkins is 100% going to try and wrestle here, so for as much as this advice seems like a joke, keep an eye on Elkins via Sub/Points as a prop because if anyone can push through being beaten up and cut open, it’s Elkins, he lives to be bled.

Del Valle is only two fights deep into his UFC career and as I said just before, his last loss was against Leavitt in which he got taken down multiple times and couldn’t get any offense going. If he has not learnt proper takedown defence he could very much struggle in the same way here. Del Valle is primarily a striker and he’s quite a sharp one at that, so I think for as long as the fight remains standing, he’s going to have no problem in chipping away at the very tough but very hittable Elkins, but it’s the forward pressure of Elkins that may end up being the biggest primary danger for Del Valle, because not only does Del Valle have to worry about the takedowns, in which he has to modify his guard a little bit, but he has to worry about the visuals, and if he cannot plant his feet and make Elkins move backwards, there’s a high chance that visually, to the judges, we could see some split scorecards if both fighters are at a somewhat stalemate. Now, I don’t like the odds here for Del Valle, they seem like a trap to anyone who is new to betting, and whilst i’m no authority when it comes to betting, I have to say from watching this sport for over a decade, -800 on someone like Del Valle is not a great thing to see. There is no value there, so I’m thinking that the best way to make money for this one if you are to bet on Del Valle, is to bet on a Combo Round (Round 2 or 3) thing, because we know that Elkins is going to survive the first round unless he gets knocked out clean, but I think the forward pressure and the wrestling attacks of Elkins will result in the fight hitting the second round, and thus that prop should be good to go.

I am going with Del Valle here, I think age is a big factor here and I think Elkins is a bit of a broken fighter at this point, but I cannot ignore the wrestling threat from Elkins, especially at those odds, so, as you may have predicted, I am making Elkins an Alt Bet, I am fully willing for this Alt Bet to not hit, but imagine if it does… so, it’s not advised to follow this Alt Bet unless you see what I see potentially happening.

Del Valle via KO R3 (1/3)

Co-Main Event

Lightweight

Billy Quarantillo (+150) (18-7-0, 2 FLS) v Diego Ferreira (-185) (19-7-0, 2 FLS)

Okay, so here’s thing… Quarantillo is indeed coming off back to back losses with his most recent one being practically 1.5 years ago when he lost against Cub Swanson via KO, and that rings a few alarm bells because whilst I do think Quarantillo moving up to 155 could be a decent step in his career, he’s also probably not used to getting hit by 155ers, especially someone with such raw power like Ferreira. Quarantillo is also dealing with a shorter reach and so I think we’re going to see a case in which Ferreira just has more success at picking apart Quarantillo, or striking at a range that Quarantillo cannot effectively answer back. Quarantillo also does not have any defensive abilities whatsoever, his Swanson fight pretty much proved that, he toughed out some strikes but then that one-two landed from Swanson and that put Quarantillo away very quickly, so if Ferreira can land strikes against Quarantillo using his 4 inch reach advantage and thus find his timing for more significant shots, I can’t see how Ferreira won’t find success during this fight, even though Ferreira is hitting that critical age in which we normally see a major decline.

Ferreira has been in some of the most entertaining fights in the Lightweight Division for pretty much his entire career, he’s such a guns-blazing kind of fighter, I think stylistically he’s a great match up for Quarantillo because Quarantillo does not shy away from a good scrap, but again, I keep circling back to the 4 inches of reach as well as the fact that Ferreira has been in some gnarly scraps in his career, he’s withstood some heavy strikes, and so I think we’re going to see Quarantillo get the worse end of the stick here as he tries to utilise pressure and pace against Ferreira, but due to Quarantillo’s inability to defend strikes, move his head or use footwork defensively, he’s just going to be in the range of some heavy shots from the career long Lightweight. Now, before you start commenting, I am aware that Quarantillo has fought at Lightweight during his time before the UFC, but for the most part he’s been a featherweight during the last 7 years, and I just think Ferreira is overall the bulkier and heavier fighter on fight day.

I have to go with Ferreira here, I cannot ignore the 4 inch reach advantage and the fact that Quarantillo just doesn’t have any head movement, a critical defensive aspect when fighting someone like Ferreira, someone who can crash in with explosiveness early, someone who can be dangerous at all ranges.

Ferreira via KO R2 (1/3)

Main Event

Lightweight

Mateusz Gamrot (#11) (+110) (26-4-0, NS) v Quillan Salkilld (#14) (-135) (12-1-0, 12 FWS)

Alright, i’m gonna make a few enemies here.

I am very, very much 50/50 on this entire fight because on one hand, we have Gamrot, one of the most decorated wrestlers in the UFC, someone who can outscramble the best of the best, all that stuff, but he has a terrible chin, he usually gets dropped at least once each fight, and he generally only relies on his wrestling and submission capabilities to win fights. Now, it’s very, very fair to say that Gamrot has faced far better competition compared to Salkilld, Gamrot has faced former champions, contenders and up and coming stars and all that stuff whereas Salkilld is just barely starting that level of competition now, so it is highly likely that experience will play a major role for Gamrot here, but again, we know how good Gamrot is, we don’t know how good Salkilld is, and that’s where the mystery lies. Now, i’m gonna yap a bit about betting now so feel free to ignore this coz it’s not my forte, but I firmly believe that Gamrot, if he was to win, would win by submission in those last three rounds, and the main reason I’m thinking that way is that Salkilld surely has enough submission defence to survive and withstand the first 10 minutes of the fight if Gamrot executes a perfect gameplan and gets the fight to the ground early each round, Salkilld can find the hands fairly well and I think we’ll see Salkilld just survive the first and second round with Gamrot winning those rounds due to activity and control. However, eventually Salkilld will be too exhausted to continue to defend the submission, and since Gamrot has outstanding cardio already, I suspect that Gamrot will have an easier time as the rounds go by in securing a submission, so whilst I don’t know the odds for Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (Combo Rounds), you best believe that i’m making a bet once they’re available to me on Sportsbet.

Now, Salkilld is someone who I won’t write at length about, not because I don’t like him or anything but because he hasn’t shown anything amazing still, there have been highlight reels, sure, but they’re just one shot KO’s that hit nicely, we haven’t seen him in a brutal back and forth fight that truly tests someone and I think Gamrot is a perfect candidate to test Salkilld’s ability to fight at length. It would not at all surprise me if Salkilld got a KO within the first or second round, there would be zero shock factor, none at all, because historically, Gamrot has been very easy to score hits on, his defense is his wrestling offense and if Salkilld has drilled takedown defence accordingly, or at least drilled well timed attacks and movements to counter that level change threat of Gamrot, he should have no problem in landing an uppercut or even being the aggressor and landing those long one-two combinations, and I mean, those 5 inches in reach that Salkilld has over Gamrot will certainly help with landing those shots at range. So, that’s the gameplan from Salkilld, I believe it’s his gameplan at least, given that it’s quite easy to win against Gamrot, just don’t engage in any wrestling with him and keep moving. However, the only issue with that, which I almost forgot to mention, is that this fight is happening at the Apex, and I say this almost every Apex event, the Apex Cage favours the wrestler! Less motion required to get to the fence, less motion for the defensive striker to move around, and so this one could be very interesting to watch!

I got Salkilld winning this one, it is very, very much a favouritism pick moreso than an educational one, I have been a fan of Salkilld’s for a while now and I am not jumping off the bandwagon yet, but again, Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 is going to be an Alt Bet.

Salkilld via KO R2 - (1/3)

Parlay: Sousa/Miranda ITD + Thainara ML + Del Valle via KO/Points (DC) (Bad odds maybe) + Quarantillo/Ferreira ITD

Locks: Thainara

Alt Bets: Oliveira via KO/Points, Miranda via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Elkins via Sub/Points and finally Gamrot via Sub R3, 4 or 5 (CR)

Dogs: Once again, no dogs… but as I always say, my Alt Bets are at least hints towards what I think are potential upsets. They’re just not picks.

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello and welcome to this weeks Parlay Thread!

Post all of your parlays here!

You can post it via text, or image format ("formatting help" button underneath the comment box will assist in getting the image format stuff going)

I wish you all the best of luck with this weeks event!

Hello!

I hope we’re all having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta do some admin stuff first, as you should know by now!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1v9p0wr/ufc_belgrade_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1v9pcjt/ufc_belgrade_fight_predictions_tldr/

Now, let’s see how we went last week!

Parlay: Missed (Ankalaev did not perform well at all)

Single Bet Recommendations: 4 of 10 which is disappointing.

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event! I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

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Parlay Leg 1: Leka ML (1.46) Sportsbet

I think we’re just going to see the natural heavyweight deal more damage, remember that Poppeck is moving up once again so he is mostly gaining just mass and not really adjusting to it, whilst Leka is the more natural heavyweight, he’s bigger, stronger, and there’s likely to be a weight disparity too, all of this is leading me to take Leka as a moneyline parlay leg.

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Parlay Leg 2: Vologdin/Nikolic R3 Starts Yes (1.56) Sportsbet

So, I figure that Vologdin would be able to survive this fight long enough for the third round to start, he is very durable, he makes fights exciting and thus could make it competitive by nature, so we should be able to see an extended fight here in which the third round starts, otherwise I may have massively misread this fight, and normally I try to not do that!

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Parlay Leg 3: Cepo KO/Sub (Double Chance) (1.35) Sportsbet

This was originally an ITD leg, but at 1.07 I figure we go with our alternative in Cepo KO/Sub, I just think that Cepo finishes Urbina here, he is a far superior fighter and Urbina is a bit of a square fighter, he doesn’t do well under pressure, he is mostly known for being knocked out and all that, so it’s quite a bland leg, but it should hit.

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Parlay Leg 4: Medic via KO (1.44) Sportsbet

This is pretty much covered in my write up, but basically I highlighted the early round danger from Medic, he is fighting in front of his home crowd, this card was built around Medic getting a finish, and boy is he going to feel that energy from the crowd, he should come out guns blazing and looking to take Rodriguez’ head clean off.

Total Odds: 4.36

Total Payout: $21.81

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SINGLE BET RECOMMENDATIONS (Excluding Parlay Legs)

Spasic/Luciano

Luciano via Sub - 5.60

I just think we’re going to see a one sided kind of fight, Luciano aint to be fooled with. Odds might seem a bit intimidating but I think the gap in skill on the ground will be evident

Milosevic/Cowan

Milosevic via KO/Points (Double Chance) - 1.73

Just a throwaway bet, really, not much to know here.

Rebecki/Prepolec

Rebecki via KO R2 or 3 - 5.90

This is a combo round prop that I always rely on, Rebecki is a wrecking ball of a fighter and whilst I think Prepolec could get knocked out early, I wanna give him a little bit of hope here.

Grad/Buzukja

Round 3 Starts No - 2.41

I don’t know what to think about with this one, but both fighters are finishers and do get finished often, so, lots of chaos here, but also lots of unknowns.

Oliveira/Elliott

Oliveira via KO R1 or 2 (CR) - 2.20

I just think Oliveira is an assassin, he should get it done cleanly early, but Elliott is well rounded enough to probably survive the first round, probably.

Klein/Musayev

Goes The Distance - 1.72

Klein is quite talented and experienced, so is Musayev so both should somewhat cancel each other out… worried about the ankle injury of Klein though being a contributing factor to being finished.

Janicic/Gugnon

Fight ends via KO - 1.84

This fight is going to be an absolute war.

Todorovic/Valentin

Valentin via Sub R1 or 2 - 4.30

I think this is his most direct pathway to victory and it would likely hit in the first two rounds.

Rakic/Tybura

Rakic via KO R2 or 3 (CR) - 4.60

Tybura tends to do enough to survive fights, he is older and not very defensive so i suspect the punching power of Rakic will take its toll on him in the later rounds.

Blachowicz/Stirling

Blachowicz Takedowns 2+ - 2.30

I think given that Blachowicz main route is to get takedowns and wrestle, this should be safe enough bet.

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And that’s it!

Any questions, or feedback let me know!

Good luck this weekend!

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Lord Ninja Choke Episode 70:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1v9p0wr/ufc_belgrade_fight_predictions/?

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PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2401 - 1382, 213 Perfect | 579 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 69.6% (+0.6%)

Lock Record: 31 - 7 (Unchanged)

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UFC Abu Dhabi Recap

Prediction Results: 10/12 Correct, 4 Perfect (Aliev, Patterson, Walker, Vagaev)

Parlay: Did not hit because Ankalaev literally did not hit.

Alt Bets: Said via KO R1 or 2, Temirov via KO R1 hit

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Profit/Loss for 2026: -11u (unchanged because even though Temirov cashed, it negated the money I put in)

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Last week was a fairly pleasant week for predictions, and that happiness I felt after that event was very, very short lived as I bore witness to the absolute atrocities that is in this card. 7 debut fights, a few of them double debuts, so already, if you know my write up style and if you know my attitude towards double debuts, those breakdowns will be disgustingly short. Then you have the non-debut fights which involve fighters who are on losing streaks, or who are matched up against equally terrible (or great) fighters.

I do not expect a lot of predictions to hit, I am saying this right now, this fight is screaming “bloodbath” at me. If i get past 4-5 out of 14 correct, I would consider it a damn victory. But as you know, I’ll strive to be accurate, but I won’t be happy at all during this weeks write up.

So, expect this to be a short write up, expect me to give very little shit about some fights, I need a chill week and I might as well try to at least chill during this week.

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

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Prelims

Women’s Strawweight

Marina Spasic (D) (+230) (7-1-0, NS) v Stephanie Luciano (-280) (7-2-1, NS)

Striking: I would argue that Spasic is the more dangerous striker here, but I was hyper-critical of her inability to look good on the feet defensively, she leaves her chin in the air and is highly counter-able.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Luciano should thrive, she is a fantastic grappler and given that Spasic is seemingly a pure striker, I think we are going to see a big skill gap here.

Additional Notes: Bit of a standard start to a fight, you know, if you miss this one, you’re not missing much!

Prediction: Luciano via Dec (1/3)

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Heavyweight

Jovan Leka (D) (-225) (13-2-0, 6 FWS) v Alexander Poppeck (D) (+185) (21-5-0, 4 FWS)

Striking: I suppose its kinda even here but Leka has the weight advantage and I think that matters a whole lot at Heavyweight where you can be 20-30 pounds heavier than your opponent easily.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t think we’re going to see much wrestling here, but if there is, I think it would be Poppeck who will initiate the wrestling here.

Additional Notes: Poppeck is a Middleweight who moved up to Light Heavyweight, and then is moving up to Heavyweight, remind you of someone? A cautionary tale.

Prediction: Leka via KO R1 (2/3) | Parlay: Leka ML

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Women’s Bantamweight

Nina Milosevic (D) (-395) (8-1-0, 8 FWS) v Hailey Cowan (+300) (7-5-0, 3 FLS)

Striking: Anyone can look good against Cowan, so of course Milosevic will have a major advantage on the feet here. She already has showcased her striking throughout her career, she’s vicious.

Wrestling/Grappling: This could be Cowans route to victory, but frankly, I can’t say for sure that it will be something she will do with success.

Additional Notes: I have been excited to see Milosevic fight, she was on my radar for a year or so now, so very excited to see her make her UFC debut.

Prediction: Milosevic via Dec (1/3)

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Lightweight

Mateusz Rebecki (-350) (20-5-0, 3 FLS) v Kyle Prepolec (+280) (18-10-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Both are reasonably good strikers, and Prepolec has a chance to create an upset just from this route alone if he deals enough damage early to visually wow the judges. Rebecki is a marauder though, he will run through a steel door to land a strike, he will sacrifice his body just to land some heavy strikes, so this is going to be grand!

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t know who has the advantage here, maybe Rebecki will wrestle if he gets pieced up too much on the feet, who knows?

Additional Notes: I mean, I like Rebecki here, but I do not like the odds.

Prediction: Rebecki via KO R2 (1/3)

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Featherweight

Bogdan Grad (-190) (15-4-0, 2 FLS) v Dennis Buzukja (+160) (12-6-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: I’d say Buzukja is a bit quicker on the feet, but Grad has the strength and power advantage, and he will be further energised by the crowd. I did talk about the brain health of both fighters in my main breakdown, saying that Grad has had more time to recover than Buzukja and that could be a big factor here.

Wrestling/Grappling: I think they cancel each other out, but that’s a bit “I think” because whilst Grad is very strong with his takedowns, it’s all physical, and not technical, whereas Buzukja is traditionally trained in wrestling.

Additional Notes: Man, I don’t know if there’s a betting angle here or not, I am thinking of an inside the distance parlay leg given how both fighters are quite finishable, but I also think there’s going to be a lot of respect from both fighters and we might see a slow tit for tat.

Prediction: Grad via KO R2 (1/3)

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Bantamweight

Mark Vologdin (12-4-2, NS) v Borislav Nikolic (D) (16-2-0, 6 FWS)

Striking: Both are very good strikers, but given that Nikolic has the huge reach advantage, he should be able to outstrike Vologdin, both due to the reach and also due to the fact that Vologdin perhaps gets off to getting punched.

Wrestling/Grappling: I am unsure if there’s going to be wrestling here, I honestly just hope we’re going to see a stand up battle from both fighters with a whole lot of blood.

Additional Notes: I am leaving the Vologdin hype train, it was a small train, only carried a few passengers, me included, but I think he is going to be clearly outgunned here.

Prediction: Nikolic via KO R3 (1/3) | Parlay: Round 3 Starts Yes

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Welterweight

Michael Oliveira (DWCS) (-330) (9-0-0, 9 FWS) v Oban Elliott (+270) (12-4-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: Oliveira is nothing but speed and power, he is terrifying on the feet and I think he’s just going to be too much for Elliott who is somewhat decent on the feet but is at a severe reach disadvantage.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is Elliott’s only way to win, make it boring, be a wet blanket.

Additional Notes: Oliveira is certainly a big prospect, I’m seeing lots of people excited about his debut this weekend, consider me intrigued!

Prediction: Oliveira via KO R2 (2/3) | Lock

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Lightweight

Ludovit Klein (-210) (24-5-1, NS) v Tofiq Musayev (+180) (23-6-0, NS)

Striking: I think Klein is a far superior striker, he should run circles around Musayev on the feet, as long as he avoids the wild strikes of Musayev.

Wrestling/Grappling: Klein has great takedown defence, but it would be one of the only ways for Musayev to win, provided he cheats to get the takedowns because you know, that’s what he does.

Additional Notes: I am feeling somewhat hatred towards Musayev, his win against Bahamondes was disgraceful, full of absolutely terrible fence grabs and other fouls.

Prediction: Klein via Dec (1/3)

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Main Card

Lightweight

Milos Janicic (D) (-155) (19-3-0, 2 FWS) v Noah Gugnon (D) (+130) (9-2-0, 5 FWS)

Striking: First of all, no matter how much I write about this one, I cannot do this fight breakdown justice, both are incredibly unique strikers, Gugnon is perhaps more traditional with his blitzing style, but Janicic is just overall a unique fighter who can get the job done at range and within the pocket.

Wrestling/Grappling: I do not think wrestling is going to be a major thing here, we’re in for a crowd pleasing fight.

Additional Notes: Double debuts rarely interest me, this is that rarity, this one is very high on my curiosity list!

Prediction: Janicic via KO R2 - (1/3) | Alt Bet: Gugnon via KO R1 or 2 (CR)

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Middleweight

Vlasto Cepo (D) (-300) (14-3-0, 2 FWS) v Gilbert Urbina (+250) (7-4-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: I mean let’s be real, Urbina is pretty much done for when it comes to facing heavy hitting or great strikers, this is legitimately a set up for success kinda fight for Cepo.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t think there’s going to be any wrestling here.

Additional Notes: Poor Urbina, always matched up against up and comers…

Prediction: Cepo via KO R1 (1/3) | Parlay: ITD or Cepo KO/Sub DC

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Middleweight

Dusko Todorovic (+135) (13-6-0, NS) v Robert Valentin (-160) (11-6-0, NS)

Striking: Both are equally… rough? It’s hard to say who is better when both have such a low output and their career has mostly been them getting knocked out and finished.

Wrestling/Grappling: I’d argue this is where Valentin thrives, his length with his reach is going to allow him to get the body locks easier for the takedowns, and from there he should be able to just control Todorovic.

Additional Notes: I have nothing here, no additional notes, I just want this fight over and done with.

Prediction: Valentin via KO R2 (1/3)

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Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura (#14) (+255) (27-11-0, 2 FLS) v Aleksandar Rakic (-310) (14-6-0, 4 FLS)

Striking: This is where Rakic should thrive, he has always been a very good boxer, and since he’s moving up to Heavyweight, we should perhaps see him bulked up and hitting harder, although I question whether or not his speed will still be there.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is Tybura’s primary skill set, he is a wrestler at heart or at least a grappler and if he can get the fight to the ground he should have little to worry about in regards to Rakic defending himself on the ground.

Additional Notes: I am siding with Rakic here given his youth advantage as well as general striking advantage, but I am giving Tybura some much deserved respect here, he could pull this off and at those odds, I am placing him as an Alt Bet.

Prediction: Rakic via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Tybura via KO/Points (DC)

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Co-Main Event

Light Heavyweight

Jan Blachowicz (#12) (+245) (29-11-2, 2 FLS) v Navajo Stirling (#15) (-300) (10-0-0, 10 FWS)

Striking: This should be where Stirling thrives, but given that he is coming in on short notice, I am unsure if he will look as good as he did in previous fights, still, length and speed favours him over the aged 43 year old veteran.

Wrestling/Grappling: Blachowicz and his wrestling abilities will always be a wonderful combination to see, it is what made him do great stuff against Adesanya, and he could potentially repeat the same success here against Stirling.

Additional Notes: I am going to give Blachowicz an Alt Bet spot here also, given that he has trained for a fight, he is more prepared, but his age does concern me and would be the main reason why this Alt Bet might not hit.

Prediction: Stirling via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Blachowicz via Points

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Main Event

Welterweight

Uros Medic (-330) (13-3-0, 3 FWS) v Daniel Rodriguez (+265) (20-5-0, 3 FWS)

Striking: Medic is a ferocious first round finisher, so expect him to come out with extra gusto in the first round, but Rodriguez is a seasoned veteran and should survive, I think!

Wrestling/Grappling: I know Rodriguez can wrestle, but I am unsure if he will. So, slight nod to Rodriguez here.

Additional Notes: Not the most incredible main event, but given that Medic is returning to home soil to fight in front of his home crowd… good lord the atmosphere might be insane!

Prediction: Medic via KO R1 (2/3) | Parlay: Medic via KO | Lock

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Parlay: Leka ML, Nikolic/Vologdin R3 Starts Yes, Cepo/Urbina ITD or Cepo KO/Sub, Medic KO

Locks: Oliveira, Medic

Alt Bet: Gugnon via KO R1 or 2 (CR), Tybura via KO/Points (DC), Blachowicz via Points

Dogs: None that really fascinate me, although each Alt Bet fighter would be considered dogs that I think could cause an upset.

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Lord Ninja Choke Episode 70:

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1v9pcjt/ufc_belgrade_fight_predictions_tldr/

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PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2401 - 1382, 213 Perfect | 579 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 69.6% (+0.6%)

Lock Record: 31 - 7 (Unchanged)

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UFC Abu Dhabi Recap

Prediction Results: 10/12 Correct, 4 Perfect (Aliev, Patterson, Walker, Vagaev)

Parlay: Did not hit because Ankalaev literally did not hit.

Alt Bets: Said via KO R1 or 2, Temirov via KO R1 hit

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Profit/Loss for 2026: -11u (unchanged because even though Temirov cashed, it negated the money I put in)

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Last week was a fairly pleasant week for predictions, and that happiness I felt after that event was very, very short lived as I bore witness to the absolute atrocities that is in this card. 7 debut fights, a few of them double debuts, so already, if you know my write up style and if you know my attitude towards double debuts, those breakdowns will be disgustingly short. Then you have the non-debut fights which involve fighters who are on losing streaks, or who are matched up against equally terrible (or great) fighters.

I do not expect a lot of predictions to hit, I am saying this right now, this fight is screaming “bloodbath” at me. If i get past 4-5 out of 14 correct, I would consider it a damn victory. But as you know, I’ll strive to be accurate, but I won’t be happy at all during this weeks write up.

So, expect this to be a short write up, expect me to give very little shit about some fights, I need a chill week and I might as well try to at least chill during this week.

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Women’s Strawweight

Marina Spasic (D) (+230) (7-1-0, NS) v Stephanie Luciano (-280) (7-2-1, NS)

First of many debutants to enter the cage this weekend, Spasic is a somewhat decent fighter, and having watched some of her fights at Brave, there are a few things that she does well, and one or two things that she doesn’t do at all. Firstly, when it comes to offensive capabilities, she is decent at throwing out activity, her leg kicks are somewhat decent and her boxing, when unopposed, is great. Now, unopposed is the key term here because from the footage that I could find, she is rather defensively flawed, when she’s in the pocket landing strikes, she leaves her chin up in the air and her entire body/torso is open to strikes, primarily because her stance is quite offense-based, she has that right hand cocked and loaded and her lead hand is her measuring stick so she tends to stand stoic and still for the most part, with any clash in the pocket leading to counters landing on her fairly often. Now, I cannot say anything for her wrestling, but just keep an eye out for her offensive abilities, her boxing is probably her key assets and i’m intrigued to see what she brings to the cage this weekend.

Luciano is coming off a great win against Ravena Oliveira in which she used her wrestling and grappling background to just control and dominate the striking heavy fighter, and what I expect from Luciano this weekend is very much the same gameplan, I expect to see Luciano try to get the fight to the ground almost immediately because of the striking threat from Spasic, but also since Spasic tends to let loose her right body and leg kick without prior set up, I expect to see Luciano catch and use that as a tool to get the trip or takedown. Once the fight hits the mat, it should be all Luciano since she’s the grappler in this fight here, and the more she has Spasic working to get back to a standing position, the better it will be for Luciano as that means any explosiveness that Spasic would have used on the feet would be used in getting the fight back to the feet.

Either way, I look forward to this debut but I also kind of don’t considering I feel like i’ve seen everything Spasic has to offer anyway, her striking is solid but her chin does get left in the air quite a lot, and I just think Luciano will be able to drag this one to the ground with relative ease, or else she might get outstruck!

Luciano via Dec (1/3)

Heavyweight

Jovan Leka (D) (-225) (13-2-0, 6 FWS) v Alexander Poppeck (D) (+185) (21-5-0, 4 FWS)

Short write up, here we come!

Leka is a giant of a man, 6 foot 5 and almost 80 inches of reach, all at the age of 24, he’s clearly been blessed by great genetics or his parents are HGH abusers and that trickled down to him, either way, I look forward to this towering man entering the cage, and considering that he’s coming off a streak of big finishes as well as a Dana Whites Contender Series win, Leka is going to have both a height, reach and a weight advantage here since he does tip the scales at the maximum allowed heavyweight limit, and that’s practically it for this write up, expect that weight disparity to be the biggest thing here, his striking, his wrestling, they’re all to be learnt about but his weight will probably be the biggest talking point.

Poppeck is a Middleweight who moved up the Light Heavyweight and is now taking on a natural Heavyweight in the UFC in enemy territory. His wrestling, should he be using it this week, might allow him to mitigate the damage coming his way from his towering opponent, but Poppeck also has to be weary of the steady pressure of Leka, Leka will walk down his opponents until their backs hit the cage or the outer edges of the cage, and then he’ll let loose a quick combination, and boy does Leka hit hard, so the sooner that Poppeck can get the fight to the ground, the better it will be for his wellbeing, but I suspect that the imposing force and presence from Leka will eventually result in Poppeck being backed up, and being the target of some thunderous strikes from the Serbian heavyweight.

I think Leka just has all the advantages here, with weight once again being the main thing to focus on, people just hit differently at heavyweight, and I don’t know if a 34 year old Poppeck will withstand those strikes well enough to last the whole three rounds. 2/3 confidence here is a non-lock one.

Leka via KO R1 - (2/3)

Women’s Bantamweight

Nina Milosevic (D) (-395) (8-1-0, 8 FWS) v Hailey Cowan (+300) (7-5-0, 3 FLS)

Milosevic is one of the only names on this card that is both a fresh face and also someone who I’ve been interested in seeing in the UFC for a while. Milosevic firstly shouldn’t have an issue in this fight because Hailey Cowan is frankly not a threat to anyone, and secondly Milosevic is an interesting addition to the UFC because she’s both so young in her MMA career, but has won quite a few IMMAF tournaments so she’s obviously somewhat experienced in that circuit. Straight away, the one thing you’ll notice from Milosevic is that she’s highly aggressive and doesn’t worry about whatever comes her way, as long as she’s throwing back with more tenacity. My only slight concern about Milosevic is her record, she may be 8-1 but her quality of competition is terrible, bottom of the barrel stuff (aside from Dina Osman who is a reasonably tough opponent). I do think that she may be tested on the ground to some degree given that Cowan’s primary route to victory is her wrestling, but if she can keep the fight standing, she should walk away from this one the victor.

Cowan is coming into this fight with a dreadful record, and that’s why I pretty much automatically count her out from winning, but as I said quite recently, she has a clear pathway to victory and that’s to wrestle, if she cannot get the fight to the ground she is going to be dealing with a lot of punches in bunches and Cowan’s striking defence already leaves a bit to the imagination. I struggle to see Cowan as a MMA fighter, she is more of an athlete who wants to participate in MMA, rather than someone who has a traditional combat sports background who is coming into MMA. She does have a reach advantage and that may help with the long ranged strikes, but if volume comes from Milosevic, that reach advantage will only be so useful in the initial strikes from the combinations of Milosevic, but once Milosevic extends her combinations, that’s when Cowan is likely to be struck. Either way, wrestling is likely the main thing Cowan will try to do, her reach will allow her to accomplish those takedowns easily, but we don’t know how good Milosevic’s takedown defence is, so that’s a question yet to be answered.

I am leaning on Milosevic here, but it is a very low confidence pick due to the vast amount of unknowns here. It should be an interesting fight though, although at 1-2am (Melbourne Time), my level of interest may quickly diminish.

Milosevic via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Mateusz Rebecki (-350) (20-5-0, 3 FLS) v Kyle Prepolec (+280) (18-10-0, 2 FLS)

Rebecki is not a bad fighter, and I know that his three fight losing streak contradicts that statement, but frankly, his losses have for the most part come from seriously hard fought battles against some tough fighters, and whilst Rebecki is defensively flawed, I do think that he can power his way through to victory against Prepolec. Now, Rebecki’s flawed style of walking through fire and fists to deal damage may become problematic during this fight, but as long as he’s walking through that and not actively into that, he should turn the momentum around to his favour. The difference between “walking through” and “walking into” is simply a matter of momentum, for Rebecki to win his fights, he usually absorbs strikes and then attacks anyway before his opponent goes for a reset of stance. Walking into means being hit without throwing anything back, and Rebecki is not that type of fighter. Now, what is the most dangerous thing coming from Prepolec? That’s the head kick, and since Rebecki is much shorter than Prepolec, we are going to see him eat head kick after head kick to mixed results, if he can absorb that head kick fine, he can plant his feet and throw heavy attacks back before Prepolec can regain his balance to properly manoeuvre.

Prepolec and his style is nothing too spectacular, he is a knockout artist who, due to both step ups in competition and his chin being a little bit problematic, he’s no doubt someone who can make a fight exciting and his height advantage is going to allow those head kicks to land with some authority, but the problem is that Prepolec has failed to succeed in the UFC, he has mostly been good in regional fights against lesser opponents, and whilst Rebecki is on that losing streak, he is definitely a step up in competition, or at least on the same level as Drew Dober who Prepolec recently lost to. Prepolec needs to be worried about one main thing here, and that’s distance management, he needs to maintain long ranged attack range, he needs to stick and move and he needs to not be dragged into a back and forth brawl against Rebecki because Rebecki thrives in fights that happen within the pocket.

I am not counting out Prepolec completely here, but I cannot see him winning this one, I think experience is important, I think style matters here and whilst stylistically both fighters have their own thing going on, I just think that the forward pressure style of Rebecki is going to be too much for Prepolec.

Rebecki via KO R2 - (1/3)

Featherweight

Bogdan Grad (-190) (15-4-0, 2 FLS) v Dennis Buzukja (+160) (12-6-0, 2 FLS)

This one should be short.

Grad is coming off back to back losses against Luke Riley and Muhammad Naimov, I think we’re going to see him in top form this week considering that at least he is a much more explosive and dangerous striker than Buzukja, that, and geographically he doesn’t need to travel a long way to fight, whereas Buzukja has to travel internationally. Grad has two things in his arsenal that may assist him in getting the fight done his way, he can use his devastating elbows within close range after engaging in the clinch to deal damage, and he can threaten the takedown, which should further open up strikes coming his way. Now, if I am correct with this rather unorthodox and slightly non-analytical take, Grad, being the fresher fighter who is fighting on somewhat home soil, who is probably energised by the european crowd cheering him on, is likely to be the one walking forward, and whilst defensively he is somewhat an issue, I do think we’re going to see a clash of whose chin will hold up better, but offensively I think we’re going to see Grad moving forward, Grad being more aggressive, and that might result in both him landing more significant damage, but also gassing out in that first round leading to a potential drop off in cardio.

Now, Buzukja isn’t a pushover, he is a solid, well rounded fighter with quick strikes and decent counter wrestling, but my main concern for Buzukja is two-fold. First, his chin may still be compromised from his last fight, which was only 3 months back compared to Bogdans last loss which was 8 months ago, so recovery is a mild concern, and whilst i’m far from a doctor, perhaps the opposite (whatever that may be) I do think that 3 months is horrible for ones brain health and it just makes me a little bit concerned about whether or not he can endure the punishment to the head that Grad will no doubt dish out. Buzukja is stylistically the more cleaner and faster striker, he has that as an advantage, but Grad has power and aggression on his side, he brings the action, he crashes into his opponents with tremendous force.

Ultimately though, this is a battle between chins, someone is going to get rocked, both might stumble, both might be too generous with their respect for one another and lead the fight going the distance, I truly don’t know, but I might stick with the whole “Grad’s more recovered than Buzukja” thing, as well as the logistics of everything involved just makes me blindly go with Grad here, because lets be honest people, this is still a “bad” fight on paper, we’re just trying to see whose marginally worse.

Grad via KO R2 - (1/3)

Bantamweight

Mark Vologdin (12-4-2, NS) v Borislav Nikolic (D) (16-2-0, 6 FWS)

Vologdin is someone who I backed during his debut against Castaneda because admittedly, I fell for the hype a bit, he was an exciting addition to the roster due to his ability to deal with punishment by dishing out punishment himself, but I think I’m gonna have to leave him behind this week as he is taking on quite a talented debutant in Nikolic. Now, Vologdin’s traits as a fighter is still something i’ll talk about with positivity, he is someone who thrives in the fire, he can do so well under pressure, but defensively he is quite flawed and even though he can absorb quite the punishment, he is still there to be hit and ultimately that style tends to lead him to losing on the scorecards because he’s always getting hit. Now, the secondary reason behind me leaving him behind as a “hype” fighter (because I was very excited to see his debut) is that he’s facing someone who is a fair bit bigger than him, with more reach and height, and that just adds more evidence that he is likely to be behind on the striking numbers and thus Nikolic, the home town fighter, is likely to pull ahead on the scorecards.

Nikolic is making his debut after a solid streak of finishes against regional level competition, but the competition is relatively good for the region, if that makes sense? Like, he isn’t a can crusher by any means and he obviously has a wide variety of tools in his toolbox that he can rely on to win, but I think his biggest contributing factor to his potential success this weekend is going to be his striking, because Vologdin’s defence is withstanding strikes until he can strike back, I suspect the 6 inch height advantage, and 7 inch reach advantage (72.8 inches according to Brave FC) is going to prove to be too much for Vologdin, he is going to walk into punches and he if doesn’t, he’s probably going to walk into kicks and every other thing that Nikolic throws. If Vologdin chooses to engage with the wrestling, he is short enough to fall perfectly into a front headlock choke or full guard guillotine, either way, Nikolic genuinely holds the cards in this fight, I struggle to see a way that Vologdin can win this one outside of a chaotic, messy fight in which Vologdin usually thrives.

I got Nikolic winning this one, I look forward to both seeing how comical the height differences are, as well as the weaponry of Nikolic here because I have seen nothing but great things from him when watching tape and I am keen to see more!

Nikolic via KO R3 - (1/3)

Welterweight

Michael Oliveira (DWCS) (-330) (9-0-0, 9 FWS) v Oban Elliott (+270) (12-4-0, 2 FLS)

Oliveira is going to get similar treatment to what Nikolic just got, in that i’m primarily focusing on his physique, with a little sprinkling of what he does in the cage. Oliveira is an excellent KO over Victor Valenzuela which was just so damn terrifying and beautiful to watch, it is clear to me, and perhaps all that have eyes, that he is one of the next big prospects to come from DWCS. Now, his reach advantage here is going to allow him to do some incredible things within his own safe boxing range, and his explosiveness and hand speed all combine gracefully into such a dangerous and devastating weapon in the cage, and once he starts finding his rhythm and his flow, expect Elliott to struggle a little bit because whilst Elliott isn’t exactly a pushover, I just think that punching power and the clear difference between the two fighters reach and range is going to be the primary story throughout this fight. I look forward to seeing Oliveira do his thing in the cage.

Oh, sorry, was I meant to break down Elliott? My bad! Elliott is coming off back to back losses against Micallef and Ko, which aren’t bad names to lose against, but he has lost all that momentum that he gained earlier on in his career. Now, Elliott doesn’t necessarily stand out anywhere, he’s kind of a jack of all trades kind of fighter, he’s able to do some good stuff on the feet, land with authority, but if the need calls for it he will put on his wrestling shoes and try to get the fight to the ground, but no matter what way you see this fight, you cannot ignore the sheer size difference on the feet, that reach advantage of Oliveira’s is going to be a crushing challenge for someone like Elliott and I just don’t know how well he is going to handle that.

I got Oliveira winning this one, I normally don’t go blindly with a newcomer, but against Elliott? I can’t help but pick the favourite here, his reach and his power on the feet are going to be beautiful to watch.

Oliveira via KO R2 - (2/3)

Lightweight

Ludovit Klein (-210) (24-5-1, NS) v Tofiq Musayev (+180) (23-6-0, NS)

Klein is one of those fighters that has become a household name, and that’s big for the slovakian kickboxer, because he has worked his damn ass off getting to where he is now, and he has those dozen or so fights behind him to rely on, he has that experience advantage in the UFC to deal with someone like Musayev. I am adamant with taking Klein here for a few reasons, one of them I just mentioned, but the other is that he is just a far more challenging opponent than Bahamondes, who Musayev kind of struggled against on the feet, and whilst Musayev has the ability to take the fight to the ground at his own will, he is still facing someone who is notoriously difficult to take down, so he may face adversity on the feet as well as desperation in getting the fight to the ground, which may result in him operating at a higher than preferred rate, leading to his cardio being put to test. Now, the body kicks of Klein may not be too effective against Musayev because Musayev is great at catching and using that catch to get the takedown, but if Klein leads with the boxing and ends with the body kick, we might see some effect from that. I also think that defensively, Musayev is easy to counter, his strikes come with big swings and big motions and those are easy to read, giving Klein enough data in that first round to find his timing and get his set ups going so that the combinations and counters can become effective. The only problem with Klein is the counter wrestling, I know that I said Klein is a great counter-wrestler, but if the judges see that Musayev has ample top control without any ground and pound, they may still score it for Musayev even though control is not exactly a major scoring factor if there is nothing else but control.

Musayev is only two fights deep into his UFC career, and it has been quite terrible if I can be so frank. Now, he bloodied up Bahamondes and made that fight look messy, but he only achieved success because he was a cheating cheater of a cheat, fence grabs, head butts, terrible refereeing, everything that was unethical in that fight was what led to him being the victor, and I don’t give a shit if you think otherwise, you cannot judge a “win” like that due to the unclean nature of the fight, it felt dirty, and sure, Musayev did land some good strikes, especially that ground and pound, but you cannot shove aside the events that the illegal actions set into motion, it stopped him from getting taken down, and somewhere out there in an alternative universe, Bahamondes would have won that fight from ground control, ground and pound, or a submission. Either way, I am sorry for any Musayev fans out there, but I cannot give Musayev anything positive here because of how disgracefully he performed during that fight against Bahamondes. I have already said what the path of victory is like for Musayev, and I won’t repeat it.

I got Klein winning this one, provided he doesn’t get eyepoked three times, nut shot twice, and knee’d to the face whilst on the ground recovering from those nut shots. All semi-jokes aside, I just think Kleins experience and striking capabilities will prove dangerous for the still green Musayev.

Klein via Dec (1/3)

Main Card

Lightweight

Milos Janicic (D) (-155) (19-3-0, 2 FWS) v Noah Gugnon (D) (+130) (9-2-0, 5 FWS)

Janicic is, according to Tapology, on a 5 Fight Win Streak (FWS), but I ignored the custom rules fights.

Janicic is a Serbian (it says Montenegro but that’s basically Serbia, 20 years ago it was, anyway, boom, history lesson) who is both exceptionally experienced and has been through some brilliant fights. Now, Janicic is quite versed on the feet and on the ground, however, he is quite unorthodox. See, Janicic is what I’d call a sniper of a striker, he leaves his hands wide, he is far from your standard striker, there’s a lot of singular shots that come from all angles available to a boxer, wide, tight, random, but it works because he is cocky and I think we’re going to see him be fully confident in his one shot style of striking, because since he has the reach advantage, he has the confidence in his hands and once he builds momentum he’s basically like that Marvel character, the Juggernaut, there’s no stopping him. Now, his opponent is far from a push-over, he’s young, he himself is on a winning streak and he comes from a rather good background and organisation, so my main curiosity is whether or not Janicic will be able to build that momentum, because whilst he is no doubt going to come into this fight heated and energised, we have seen many times that even a home town fighter cannot get the win.

Gugnon is coming into this fight with a mean streak behind him with wins over fairly talented fighters in Bruno Matos and Adrian Prisceanu, and the one thing that stood out to me was that he has tremendous punching power, he tends to set up the right hook or overhand with his lead hand, so there’s nothing too special there, but it just shows that he’s disciplined and doesn’t stray from a set gameplan. Gugnon is perhaps one of the better underdogs in this event, or at least one that I feel comfortable in saying has a chance to create an upset here because of that punching power, and since Janicic is a bit of a counter puncher, he has to risk being attacked in order to get his own attacks going, so we are going to legitimately see a clash of titans here, both fighters are in their prime, both have outstanding records, and both are fighting in front of a big crowd in the biggest organisation in the world, so we’re likely to see perhaps a bit of chaos early on, with me having no idea who is going to capitalise on said chaos if it was to ensue.

This is a wild double debut, exceptional work from the matchmakers here, and whilst I am going with Janicic here, I will probably sprinkle something on Gugnon here because he has an early KO chance, so maybe an Alt Bet Combo Rounds kinda thing.

Janicic via KO R2 - (1/3)

Middleweight

Vlasto Cepo (D) (-300) (14-3-0, 2 FWS) v Gilbert Urbina (+250) (7-4-0, 2 FLS)

Cepo shouldn’t have too much trouble against the rather chinless Urbina here, and I feel like that should be the bulk of this write up because let’s be honest, the main story and the main focus here is Cepo, we all know he is being fed a feast here in Urbina who is basically a walking performance bonus target. Cepo is primarily known for his fantastic knockout power and there’s little doubt that we’re going to see that here this weekend as he marches down and rains fire on Urbina, and Urbina will likely crumble after a few strikes, but not without putting on a fierce, albeit short lived resistance himself.

Urbina does not require any introduction, in fact, you can watch highlight reels of him, mostly being knocked out and demolished by up and coming fighters, but it’s still highlight reels! Urbina is very much one of those UFC fighters who is consistently on the backfoot when they’re fighting, and whilst they are somewhat capable of throwing out attacks and dealing damage himself, he is incapable of dealing with damage properly, his defences are either to throw back with genuine power, or he’s going to shell up and just wait until the ref steps in. That’s it, that’s the finality of any Urbina fight.

This fight is clearly a set up win for Cepo, the local fighter getting a big highlight, we’ve seen this many times before. Might make ITD a Parlay piece here if the odds are nice, if not, then Cepo via KO/Sub double chance or something, you get the point.

Cepo via KO R1 - (1/3)

Middleweight

Dusko Todorovic (+135) (13-6-0, NS) v Robert Valentin (-160) (11-6-0, NS)

This is also going to be a short write up.

Todorovic is one of those fighters who often is used in the same way that Urbina is used, just as a stepping stone for other fighters, and whilst he is quite decent at times, for the most part he has been slaughtered in the cage by up and comers and that’s been pretty much his main story in the UFC. With that said, I give him a little bit of hope here, as he does possess the ability to land strikes somewhat cleanly, he has decent punching power, and whilst he is at a significant reach disadvantage, I wouldn’t completely count out him landing big shots against Valentin during this clash. Still, given that he is at a size disadvantage and with his only win recently being against Medina, a human punching bag, I suppose we’re going to see Todorovic try to keep this fight standing because Valentin does possess the grappling skill set as well as the reach to get the takedowns more effectively.

Valentin is somewhat similar to Todorovic in that he was on a nasty losing streak before getting a win over Julien Leblanc, who did not fight well at all, but it’s still a win and it’s still momentum. Valentin is likely to utilise his wrestling and grappling a fair bit more in this fight due to the striking threat of Todorovic, but I cannot say with complete confidence that he’ll try to wrestle, if that makes sense. Like, he only has gotten one takedown in his UFC career, and that was recently, so maybe he’s found his pathway to success already and he wants to add another notch to his belt with another submission win, but I also think he could try to keep the fight standing and showcase a finish on the feet, I genuinely don’t know, it’s hard to get a read on someone who historically hasn’t done well in the UFC until recently.

This is a fairly 50/50 fight, it was a fight that I did not look forward to writing about, hence why you got slop from me this time, I want it over and done with, I got Valentin winning but it’s a 50/50 fight, as I said.

Valentin via KO R2 - (1/3)

Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura (#14) (+255) (27-11-0, 2 FLS) v Aleksandar Rakic (-310) (14-6-0, 4 FLS)

Tybura is being well underestimated if the odds i’m seeing is correct, because whilst he is indeed coming off a losing streak, so is Rakic, and whilst I understand that he is likely to be pieced up on the feet due to Rakic being the more fundamental striker, I just think if Tybura can get his wrestling going during this fight, he should be able to make this fight competitive enough to result in perhaps a split decision or a 29-28 win. Now, whilst I am eventually going to make my decision and pick Rakic to win this one (due to reasons I’ll soon say), I will give Tybura a whole heaping of praise here and say that he does have routes and pathways to victory, and that will be indicated as an Alt Bet. Now, Tybura, as I said, is probably going to get outstruck in this fight, Rakic is a fantastic striker and he has brilliant head kicks and genuine hand speed that’s terrifying at Heavyweight, but his takedown defence is a little bit concerning and I think since Tybura has a weight advantage here (since Rakic is moving up to Heavyweight) I think that adds more of a larger gap in terms of physique and strength that may be challenging for Rakic to deal with.

Rakic is coming off 4 losses and that probably resulted in him moving up in weight because it’s just what losers do, right? Like, I mean loser in the most respectful sense, he’s lost 4 times in a row, he is thus a loser but Rakic, if you’re reading this, don’t hurt me. Rakic is likely to bring his hand speed and boxing capabilities to Heavyweight and perhaps gain some power too, but again, Tybura has a pathway to victory here in wrestling that I think we will see Rakic get tested. See, Rakic has 85% takedown defence on UFCStats, and people might see that as a fantastic thing to see, but when you dig deeper, the sample size is not there, he’s has what… 3 to 4 opponents try to take him down? All of them not really wrestlers? I just think that Rakic is going to get tested properly in that realm, and thus is the reason why i’m likely to take Tybura as an Alt Bet.

What that means is obviously i’m taking Rakic to win this fight, I want to see what others see in Rakic, so I am basically following the trend here, which is something I rarely do, but I will give Tybura much respect here and give him an Alt Bet spot because something is really gnawing at my brain here and I just think that the odds are far too wide.

Rakic via KO R2 - (1/3)

Co-Main Event

Light Heavyweight

Jan Blachowicz (#12) (+245) (29-11-2, 2 FLS) v Navajo Stirling (#15) (-300) (10-0-0, 10 FWS)

Blachowicz is coming in with a late replacement (kind of!) opponent in Navajo Stirling, and whilst Stirling is a bit more crisp on the feet compared to Guskov, I think there is a substantial enough stylistic change in that Blachowicz will have to march down Stirling a lot more due to Stirling utilising his footwork a lot to win fights. Now, Blachowicz is old, he’s 43, he’s basically the Andre Arlovski of the Light Heavyweight division now, we don’t know how much he has in the tank, but we do know that he still fights competitively enough to make fights interesting. I do not think we will see anything different from Blachowicz here, steady forward pressure, heavy hands with great boxing, and the ability to get the fight to the ground if needed, and I think if Blachowicz can properly pressure Stirling, we could see Blachowicz use his wrestling a whole lot during this fight because I don’t think he will be able to outstrike someone like Stirling, he’s just too fast and quick to deal with on the feet. So, visually, we’ll see Blachowicz move forward with steady aggression, but until he gets those wrestling attacks going, he is going to get jabbed to the face quite often.

Stirling, according to an interview or something, was binge drinking for a week or so prior to getting the call to fight, and that concerns me a little bit, because he obviously wasn’t training, but if he comes into this fight prepared he should look like his typical self, uninterested and on the bike as he keeps circling around the cage throwing out his long ranged boxing attacks until either the bell rings or he rings someones bell. He has recently been getting a lot of finishes but since they were against Cutelaba and Lopes, I feel like a finish against them isn’t too substantial, it just shows that he does have big power in his hands, he just doesn’t throw with any nastiness with every punch, he’s disciplined in that regard. I expect to see this fight go the distance, I don’t think Blachowicz is going to be finished any time soon, I think Blachowicz’s forward pressure is going to keep Stirling on his bike, and Stirling will comfortably jab as he moves away from Blachowicz, with perhaps Blachowicz eventually getting a takedown hold on Stirling, slowing down Stirling and potentially getting the fight to the ground.

Interesting fight, late replacement fights are always interesting by nature, but I think what we’ll see here is a bit of a long duration bout with very little excitement given that Stirling is coming in as a late replacement, so let’s see what happens.

Stirling via Dec (1/3)

Main Event

Welterweight

Uros Medic (-330) (13-3-0, 3 FWS) v Daniel Rodriguez (+265) (20-5-0, 3 FWS)

This could be the shortest Main Event write up I have ever done, because this fight isn’t at all as deep as a Main Event should be.

Medic is primarily a first round KO fighter, he is disgustingly quick and fast on the feet in the first round, he gives no shit for what comes his way because as long as he’s the one landing first, he’s winning the fight, he can build that momentum rather quickly and due to his blitzing ability he should be able to catch the very aged Rodriguez off guard early, leading to some spectacular striking moments from the Serbian fighter early on. Now, I do have a single bet on the fight starting the second round because I have hope that Rodriguez’s chin isn’t too far gone, but I will say with the utmost confidence that Medic is likely to eventually finish Rodriguez. Now, not that this matters but I find it amusing how many upgrades he has had in terms of opponents in his last three fights and he still finished them all in spectacular fashion. First was a stepping stone fight against Urbina, in which he obviously demolished Urbina quickly, then was Salikhov which was a big step up in competition, and still Medic won in spectacular fashion, then came Geoff Neal, someone who has faced the whose who of the division, lots of experience, and bam, gone within the first round. Medic is no doubt on quite the run here, and that momentum, plus his first big fight in his home country… I expect nothing but a very energised Medic here, and that concept interests me greatly.

Rodriguez is coming off a stint in prison because of an apparent ounce of weed in his car after crossing the border, which I mean, is a stupid story in the first place because it’s complete horse radish, but also how does one accidentally cross the fucking border? Isn’t there like a thousand kilometers of fencing and guard posts and stuff? Anyway, Rodriguez is a bit of a powerhouse still, he’s a big, strong fighter who carries a lot of power and can hit reasonably hard, but I think he might be a little out-sped here in this fight against Medic because whilst Rodriguez has the power to disrupt the momentum of Medic, I think that Medic is just so good at turning the aggression dial to 11 and going balls to the wall crazy with output in that first round, and that might catch the 39 year old fighter off guard here. A lot of things are pointing to Medic getting the first round KO, but one might ask, what happens if there isn’t a first round KO? Well, Medic has the cardio to fight well into the third round, and I’d be astonished (and tired as hell) if that was to happen, we don’t want to see Ankalaev v Guskov again! So, I expect Medic to be sprinting out of the gate, catching Rodriguez off guard, maybe Rodriguez takes the fall early for the paycheck to pay off his lawyers and all that stuff, and then he’ll sail off into the sunset and retire happy whilst crossing the border legally.

I got Medic winning this one, but lets be honest, I think a lot of us have Medic winning lol, I just can’t compute a 39 year old man who is coming out of prison to fight, winning against someone who is on a hot streak and who is also 6 years younger. Just a lot of basic thought here, but on any other card, this fight would be a prelim featured bout. Let’s call it a first round KO, with Medic being a lock because why the heck not, right, a Serb headlining a Serbian fight card? Let’s freaking go!

Medic via KO R1 - (2/3)

Parlay: Leka ML, Nikolic/Vologdin R3 Starts Yes, Cepo/Urbina ITD or Cepo KO/Sub, Medic KO

Locks: Oliveira, Medic

Alt Bet: Gugnon via KO R1 or 2 (CR), Tybura via KO/Points (DC), Blachowicz via Points

Dogs: None that really fascinate me, although each Alt Bet fighter would be considered dogs that I think could cause an upset.

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello and welcome to this weeks Parlay Thread!

Post all of your parlays here!

You can post it via text, or image format ("formatting help" button underneath the comment box will assist in getting the image format stuff going)

I wish you all the best of luck with this weeks event!

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Before I get started, I gotta do some admin first, you know how it is!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1v3aegs/ufc_abu_dhabi_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1v3ai8z/ufc_abu_dhabi_fight_predictions_tldr/

Now lets see how last week went!

UFC Oklahoma City Recap

Parlay: Missed

Single Bet Recommendations: 5 of 8 Correct (not too bad!)

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

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Parlay Leg 1: Aliev ML (1.48) Sportsbet

So, this one is kind of covered in my write ups, I suspect that Aliev can mix it up well enough on the feet to get the takedowns, and from there he should breeze his way to a decision win, I don't see a finish happening here, even if it does, this leg still lands.

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Parlay Leg 2: Vagaev/Izagakhmaev Over 2.5 Rounds (???) Sportsbet

Not sure what the odds are for this, someone told me it's 1.40, could be worse though so its ??? for now, it's also unavailable for me on sportsbet. Reasoning is basic, Vagaev historically is a decision heavy fighter, both fighters tend to have similar styles, so I mean, it's a bit simple to think about, really. Styles cancel each other out and we should see a long, drawn out fight.

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Parlay Leg 3: Dulatov via KO/Points (DC) (1.42) Sportsbet

This is mostly me trying to find value on a heavy favourite, I suspect we'll see him find a KO during this fight because Turman is far from impressive and he's coming back after a long time away from the cage, and that's never good.

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Parlay Leg 4: Ankalaev via R1 2 or 3 (1.74) Sportsbet

This just means Ankalaev gets a finish within the first three, by whatever means he deems fit. I don't think we're going to see the fourth round start at all, it should be a quick finish.

Total Odds: 3.65 (Boosted from 3.49)

(That's without the other leg)

Total Payout: $18.28

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SINGLE BET RECOMMENDATIONS (Excluding Parlay Legs)

(we're gonna see some silly numbers here)

Gibson/Hussein

Hussein via KO R1 or 2 (CR) - 3.90

I mean, a KO is a more exciting way to finish a fight than a submission and I think that's what Hussein will try to chase.

Tuchalov/Ribeiro

Tuchalov via KO R1 or 2 (CR) - 1.50

Nothing too exciting here, it's a bit of a throwaway bet, really.

Sola/Bonfim

Big Money

Sola via KO R2 or 3 - 4.90

I think Sola's cardio is going to be the biggest problem for Bonfim because Bonfim does kind of suffer from fatigue after a ferocious first round, so I hope he does come out blasting to little effect so this hits.

Patterson/Ponzinibbio

How Fight Will End - KO - 1.77

Again, simple bet, both like to use their strikes, Ponzi doesn't have a chin and I mean, Pattersons striking defence is concerning so i'm also giving Ponzi a slight chance early here.

Jacoby/Said

Alt. When will the fight end - Round 1 or 2 - 1.93

I just expect a finish within the first 2 rounds here.

Walker/Petersen

2 bets here

1. Walker via Sub R1 - 4.80

(Coz, you know, why not, right?)

2. Inside The Distance - 1.46

Again, I do have Petersen via KO/Points as an Alt Bet, so if that interests you, take that, but I think we're gonna see a finish.

Kuniev/Fortune

MMA Match Specials 6

Kuniev via Points or Fortune via KO - 2.00

I think this is the way to go here, and at 2.00 i'm happy with that.

Zaynukov/Rzepecki

Big Gamble

Zaynukov via KO R1 - 5.40

Leaning on the "corruption" of this fight taking place in the Middle East, lets go wild a bit!

Erceg/Temirov

Over 2.5 Rounds - 1.53

We're chilling a bit here I think. Alt Bet on Temirov via KO R1 or 2 if you choose to take it.

And that's it!

If you have any feedback or questions, let me know!

Good luck this weekend!

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Lord Ninja Choke Episode 69:

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1v3aegs/ufc_abu_dhabi_fight_predictions/

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2391 - 1380, 211 Perfect | 577 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 69% (+0.2)

Lock Record: 31 - 7 (Coria and CLD won)

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UFC Oklahoma City Recap

Prediction Results: 9/12 Correct, 2 Perfect (Delgado, Hooper)

Parlay: Missed… if Coria got a finish we would be eatin well!

Alt Bets: None hit

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Profit/Loss for 2026: -11 (-2.8)

---

All things considered, last week went reasonably well, if the parlays and Alt Bets hit that would have been nicer, but I think from a prediction standpoint we’re doing okay.

This week though? Absolute headscratcher, we got a lot of local “talent” that might end up being dead weight for the UFC or traps for the pundits/bettors, so let’s see what we’re dealing with.

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

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Bantamweight

Abdul Hussein (D) (-400) (15-2-0, 8 FWS) v Cody Gibson (+300) (21-12-0, 2 FLS)

Striking: I genuinely don’t think anyone has a striking advantage here but given the age gap and the propensity for Gibson to eat shots over and over, I’d give it to Hussein here, but the height and reach difference would make that a challenge for Hussein.

Wrestling/Grappling: Hussein’s main style is to wrestle, his smaller stature and midget ass body should allow him to get the takedowns with relative ease, the only thing he has to worry about are any defensive or instinctive chokes that Gibson may use.

Additional Notes: I don’t think -400 is a good spot for Hussein, especially because he’s such a short king, but I think we're still going to see him win this one.

Prediction: Hussein via Dec (1/3)

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Lightweight

Nurullo Aliev (-150) (11-0-0, 11 FWS) v Mike Davis (+130) (12-3-0, NS)

Striking: This is all Davis in my opinion, the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more time Davis has to get his range finding tools going and start throwing out those extended combinations. Aliev can throw on the feet but he is probably going to be outgunned a bit.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is Aliev’s primary route to victory and I suspect we are going to see at least 10 takedowns attempted throughout this fight, Davis’ takedown defence is fine, but it’s certainly going to be tested by Aliev.

Additional Notes: Very interesting fight here, I am tempted to take Davis as an Alt Bet (via Points) here if the odds are right, so I will write that down here officially, but if they’re not over 3.50 or 4.00 then I might just leave it written down but never play it.

Prediction: Aliev via Dec | Alt Bet: Davis via Points

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Light Heavyweight

Brendson Ribeiro (+425) (17-10-0, 3 FLS) v Magomed Tuchalov (D) (-600) (6-0-0, 6 FWS)

Striking: You can’t deny that Ribeiro always brings something exciting to the table, unfortunately, he is highly unpredictable so whilst he does have great striking, his striking defence is flawed due to the funky strikes he throws. Plus, Tuchalov fights like there’s no second round sometimes so maybe we’re going to see a first round war.

Wrestling/Grappling: Tuchalov has the wrestling advantage here and a good wrestler defeats, at least on paper, and in my opinion, a decent BJJ fighter, and Ribeiro is fairly good on the ground, at times, which is rare.

Additional Notes: Tuchalov via first round insanity sounds like the way to go here!

Prediction: Tuchalov via KO R1 (1/3)

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Lightweight

Ismael Bonfim (+165) (20-6-0, 2 FLS) v Axel Sola (-200) (11-1-1, NS)

Striking: Sola definitely runs circles around Bonfim on the feet here, he may be defensively concerning but he is usually durable enough to outlast whatever his opponent is landing and then throws back twofold.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is Bonfims primary route to victory, but I want to highlight his cardio problems here, he does gas out a lot and I suspect Sola and his very, very good cardio will turn the tides even if Bonfim is successful early.

Additional Notes: I think we’re going to see a story of cardio differentials here, the first round is going to be great for Bonfim and for Sola, but Sola has the much larger gas tank and unless he gets finished early, I think Sola is going to run away with a later round KO.

Prediction: Sola via KO R3 (1/3)

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Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio (+325) (30-9-0, NS) v Sam Patterson (-425) (14-3-1, NS)

Striking: I guess Patterson has the main advantage here, but I am concerned about the first round chaos that Ponzinibbio may bring. Still, at 39, I don’t expect too much from ol’ Ponzi.

Wrestling/Grappling: Yep, I’m sure there’ll be some of that here, maybe, probably not!

Additional Notes: I want to stress that I am writing this (and the full breakdown) with the mindset that the MVP fight NEVER happened.

Prediction: Patterson via KO R2 (1/3)

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Light Heavyweight

Dustin Jacoby (-220) (22-9-1, 3 FWS) v Muhammad Said (D) (+185) (9-0-0, 9 FWS)

Striking: I understand why people are taking Jacoby to win this one, he is the seasoned veteran, but his win streak has been against older people, and especially absolutely terrible fighters like Julius Walker, someone who doesn’t even belong in the lowest of lows in regional promotions. Said can be a tricky striker to deal with, he has a wide guard and all that funky stuff, but I think Jacoby is the way to go here, even though I am highly sketchy about him in this fight.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t know if there’s going to be a lot of wrestling here, but it could be a potential tool for Said to use, path of least resistance, etc.

Additional Notes: Said is getting an Alt Bet spot here, I just don’t like Jacoby’s chin, I have many concerns.

Prediction: Jacoby via KO R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Said via KO R1 or 2 (CR)

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Heavyweight

Valter Walker (-280) (15-1-0, 4 FWS) v Thomas Petersen (+230) (11-4-0, NS)

Striking: I genuinely have no clue who holds the advantage on the feet, both are bang average strikers but maybe Walker holds the first round power here.

Wrestling/Grappling: This is Walker’s domain, but you cannot ignore the numbers here, I mean, you can, but you probably shouldn’t… Petersen has a 80+% takedown defence rate, which is kind of decent but the volume of takedowns coming his way during his UFC career have been minimal so take that number with a grain of salt.

Additional Notes: This is going to be pure entertainment. Depending on the odds, I may add a Petersen KO/Points or KO R2 or 3 (CR) bet, idk if its considered an Alt Bet, I try to reserve that to only 3-4 selections but yeah.

Prediction: Walker via Sub R1 (1/3)

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Welterweight

Abubakar Vagaev (D) (24-4-0, 3 FWS) v Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-3-0, NS)

Striking: I don’t think there will be a huge differential in striking between the two fighters here.

Wrestling/Grappling: If my prediction is right, we are going to see some insane wrestling from these two.

Additional Notes: It’s basically a double debut! Only that it’s not, but it feels like it.

Prediction: Vagaev via Dec (1/3)

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Heavyweight

Rizvan Kuniev (-280) (14-3-1, NS) v Tyrell Fortune (+230) (18-3-0, 4 FWS)

Striking: I don’t think there’s going to be a big striking difference here, we’re going to see these two heavyweights hug for about 10 minutes and throw pitter patter shots. I hope we don’t, but genuinely who knows, right?

Wrestling/Grappling: Both are great on the mat, they are high level grapplers and wrestlers and I suspect there’s going to be a lot of cancelling each other out on the ground or against the fence

Additional Notes: I am not looking forward to this one, and i’m normally someone who can find any fight entertaining, not this one though.

Prediction: Kuniev via Dec (1/3)

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Lightweight

Damian Rzepecki (D) (+270) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) v Magomed Zaynukov (DWCS) (-335) (8-0-0, 8 FWS)

Striking: Zayynukov is coming into this fight with a lot of hype surrounding him and that’s both due to Islam Makhachev being a training partner, but also because of his Muay Thai ability, and that’s what I want to highlight here, he is disgustingly good as a Muay Thai striker.

Wrestling/Grappling: If he’s training with Makhachev, then he’s probably also good with wrestling and all that stuff, but with that said, there’s many unknowns here, this is a double debut, lets just see what happens.

Additional Notes: I think this one is being hyped up mostly because of Zaynukov… no, wait, it definitely is.

Prediction: Zaynukov via KO R1 (2/3)

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Welterweight

Islam Dulatov (-750) (12-1-0, 12 FWS) v Wellington Turman (+500) (18-8-0, 3 FLS)

Striking: All Dulatov here, Turman can be dangerous but after being away for 2.5 years, I can’t trust him that much. I think Dulatov is just sharper, faster and more explosive.

Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t think we’ll see a lot of wrestling here.

Additional Notes: Poor Turman, being fed to the wolves here.

Prediction: Dulatov via KO R1 (2/3)

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Co-Main Event

Flyweight

Steve Erceg (#6) (-130) (14-4-0, 2 FWS) v Ramazan Temirov (+110) (19-2-0, 11 FWS)

Striking: I would say that Temirov is perhaps the more explosive striker, and he has to be in order to make up for that reach difference, but in terms of timing and technique, Erceg is probably the cleaner striker and that would help him greatly as the minutes go by.

Wrestling/Grappling: Again, explosiveness is on the side of Temirov here, but Erceg is a high level BJJ fighter, he’s competent on the ground and I think we’re going to see some interesting positional movements here.

Additional Notes: I got nothing else to say, I am intrigued by a first round KO by Temirov though, so I might add him as an Alt Bet.

Prediction: Erceg via Dec (1/3) | Alt Bet: Temirov via KO R1 or 2 (CR) or Temirov KO R1

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Main Event

Light Heavyweight

Magomed Ankalaev (#3) (-460) (21-2-1, NS) v Bogdan Guskov (+345) (18-3-1, 4 FWS)

Striking: Now, this is where Guskov is his most dangerous, his first round power is hard to match and I think Ankalaev might be in trouble early on if he has some sort of shell shock or PTSD from his KO loss against Pereira. With that said, if Ankalaev survives the first round without issue, Guskov could be in trouble

Wrestling/Grappling: This is technically where Ankalaev could thrive, but I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of wrestling here.

Additional Notes: Interesting late replacement, Guskov’s cardio should be fine given that he was preparing for Jan Blachowicz anyway.

Prediction: Ankalaev via KO R2 (2/3) | Alt Bet: Guskov via KO R1

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Parlay: Aliev ML + Vagaev/Izagakhmaev Over 2.5 Rounds + Dulatov KO/Points + Ankalaev Rounds 1, 2 or 3.

Alt Bet: Davis via Points, Said via KO R1 or 2 (CR), Petersen via KO/Points, Temirov via KO R1 or 2 (CR) or KO R1, Guskov via KO R1.

Locks: Dulatov

Dogs: None, which is rare.

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Hello!

I hope we're all doing well!

Lord Ninja Choke Episode 69:

TL;DR Breakdown:

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2391 - 1380, 211 Perfect | 577 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 69% (+0.2)

Lock Record: 31 - 7 (Coria and CLD won)

---

UFC Oklahoma City Recap

Prediction Results: 9/12 Correct, 2 Perfect (Delgado, Hooper)

Parlay: Missed… if Coria got a finish we would be eatin well!

Alt Bets: None hit

---

Profit/Loss for 2026: -11 (-2.8)

---

All things considered, last week went reasonably well, if the parlays and Alt Bets hit that would have been nicer, but I think from a prediction standpoint we’re doing okay.

This week though? Absolute headscratcher, we got a lot of local “talent” that might end up being dead weight for the UFC or traps for the pundits/bettors, so let’s see what we’re dealing with.

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Bantamweight

Abdul Hussein (D) (-400) (15-2-0, 8 FWS) v Cody Gibson (+300) (21-12-0, 2 FLS)

Now, this is an interesting opening fight (if it still is an opening fight once this write up is out)...

Hussein is far from a perfect fighter, he is making his debut after a rather successful stint at UAE Warriors in which he was a champion prior to signing to the UFC, so its obvious that he has faced at least the best level of competition in that organisation, but he also is incredibly short compared to Gibson and that raises a few questions. Firstly, what advantages does Hussein have? Well, given his shorter stature, he should be able to secure takedowns with general ease, but since he falls about 5 inches shorter than Gibson, it also opens up opportunities for Gibson to pull guard and grab a front headlock choke position, whether its a guillotine or some other form of that choke. Now, on the feet, Hussein can be quite ballsy, and thats only because he’s usually, if not always, the shorter length and height fighter, so he is already at a disadvantage, but he still isn’t afraid to throw off the jab or leg kicks, showing different looks and just being an overall tricky to read fighter, so if he can mask the takedown with a couple of minutes of stance switches, leg kicks, jabs to the face and such, he should be able to secure that initial takedown with general ease provided he doesn’t get caught in a defensive submission from Gibson. Now, the height disadvantage is the worst part of being Hussein because I think Gibson is experienced or intelligent enough to know that a teep or a knee up the middle would be the perfect weapon to use against a shorter opponent who goes for takedowns often, so those two things are my main concern for Hussein, the submission (guillotine or other variations) and the teeps/knees up the middle.

Gibson is a bit hard to breakdown because whilst he’s still a decent fighter who has all of the fundamentals of MMA, he’s also old and never had much success in the UFC anyway, he is known for putting a silly pace on his opponents but outside of that I don’t think he’s going to present too many unique challenges that I haven’t already covered. See, I don’t doubt that Gibson is going to fight veraciously in the first round, he is going to weaponise his cardio and try to make this a gruelling fight for Hussein, but I still don’t believe we are going to see anything from Gibson that can immediately shut down the output of Hussein, and I mean shut down, not counter, Gibson has the ability to counter the takedowns, don’t you worry about that, but I mean, until he actually finishes Hussein, Hussein will just chain wrestle, attack the legs, off-balance Gibson and eventually end up in top control, because that’s what Husseins been doing for his entire career.

I got Hussein winning this one, but I would be intrigued to see if Gibson lands either a clean knee up the middle or teep, or if he locks in a guillotine choke because he is a rather good BJJ fighter.

Hussein via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Nurullo Aliev (-150) (11-0-0, 11 FWS) v Mike Davis (+130) (12-3-0, NS)

This is another fantastic fight that I can’t wait to see.

Aliev is coming off a string of victories in the UFC, and there is one particular pattern that you’ll see from Aliev during this fight, and that’s comfortable striking early on which lulls his opponent into striking back, only to go for a level change and get the fight to the ground. Now, Aliev’s striking isn’t anything too special, he is sharp with his boxing but he doesn’t ultimately rely on it, it’s a tool to lower the guard of his opponent (or literally raise the guard, both are the same thing because “lower the guard” relates to lowering their attention to the upcoming takedown). Either way, Aliev is a simplistic fighter to understand and doesn’t require a lot of words to type, he relies on his wrestling to win his fights, but he’s unafraid of letting the basic boxing strikes go because of his Sambo background, so he basically is an “as imagined” sambo style fighter, he isn’t anything too spectacular or special to write about.

Davis brings a unique challenge to this fight and I want to highlight straight off the bat the one thing he does possess over Aliev here that could result in an upset, and that’s the boxing, now, Aliev’s striking works as a two-pronged approach, its both a psychological weapon to mask the takedowns, and its a damaging weapon due to its well, nature of dealing damage. I do believe if Davis does not give Aliev respect on the feet, he can win this fight, respect needs to be thrown out the window and he needs to push a disgusting, forward and aggressive pace to shut down the offensive wrestling of Aliev, so if Davis is smart, expect a forward pressure style of striking, using his reach and height to impose his physique onto Aliev, push Aliev back, make Aliev move laterally. If he cannot do any of this, he is going to get taken down as that’s the nature of the sport, a wrestler does their best work on the front foot and when there’s stagnation with motion on both sides. So, for Davis to create an upset here, he has to dictate the pace and he has to lower his base a lot so that the sprawls can come easier, both things are going to be fairly difficult to do effectively against Aliev because a lowered base means an exposed lead leg, and if that leg is attacked early it takes a lot of movement and momentum away from Davis, so Davis has an uphill battle on his hands here.

With that said, I’m going to take Aliev to win this fight, he has the overall upper hand here, he has more tools to utilise to win this fight, but I am going to consider taking Davis as an Alt Bet (via Points) if the odds are anything over 3.50, or even 4.00. For now, Aliev is my pick.

Aliev via Dec (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Brendson Ribeiro (+425) (17-10-0, 3 FLS) v Magomed Tuchalov (D) (-600) (6-0-0, 6 FWS)

This should be a short write up. (I lied, apparently)

Ribeiro is coming into this fight as an underwhelming, chaotic fighter who lacks the fundamentals but makes up for it by just being a mental fighter, he is absolutely insane in the cage, has incredible power in his hands, insane athleticism, but terrible at mixing it all together in a fancy and clean way. It’s kind of like seeing a jacked dude in the gym who has the body sculpted by the gods but he can’t run for shit, that’s essentially the story of Ribeiro, he can turn the fight around with one strike, but the chance of that strike landing is insane. Now, at +475 or whatever odds he’s at now, normally i’d consider that just a fun little Alt Bet, but I just think that Tuchalov is going to shut down a lot of the output of Ribeiro, leaving Ribeiro having a literal puncher’s chance in the first round as he tries to end the fight quickly because he knows that Tuchalov can drag this one into deep waters and as each minute goes by that Ribeiro isn’t landing a strike, it’s a minute that Tuchalov is pushing a high pace and is getting those takedowns, or its a minute that Tuchalov is timing the better shots, but I honestly hope the takedown threat is the main threat from Tuchalov.

Tuchalov is reasonably inexperienced compared to Ribeiro on paper, but I think in terms of being the fresh face, of having the size advantage and perhaps the explosiveness advantage, but really from what I can ascertain, his wrestling and his top control are his keys to victory here, yes he can strike relatively well on the feet, and he can be dynamic, but he still shows defensive flaws like leaving his chin in the air as he strikes and just looks too explosive, like, nothing is set up, there’s no pitter patter of shots, it’s just big actions, similar to Ribeiro. Anyway, to shorten this up a bit, I expect Tuchalov to use his wrestling as a primary route to victory, he should get the win by top control and ground and pound and given that this fight is happening in the Middle East, it should be a quick stoppage from the ref.

I got Tuchalov winning this fight, if that wasn’t obvious enough. The odds here do indicate that Tuchalov should win this fight, but I do not trust him enough as a lock, I believe that the volatility from Ribeiro is going to muddle the water a little bit, even though I still fully expect Tuchalov to win, so my confidence levels will reflect that.

Tuchalov via KO R1 - (2/3)

Lightweight

Ismael Bonfim (+165) (20-6-0, 2 FLS) v Axel Sola (-200) (11-1-1, NS)

Oh this is going to be interesting.

Bonfim is probably the lesser of the two Bonfim brothers (Gabriel being the other, much better one). I think we are going to see a typical kind of style or gameplan from Bonfim here in that he will try to get the fight to the ground, I think he has to considering he’s taking on Axel Sola, someone who is known for walking down his opponents and pushing a stupendous pace. Now, there’s going to be someone typing on the comments saying “Sola is never that kind of guy!” and ill explain why I described him like that later, but basically this is just a MMA equation, really, Bonfim has the grappling upside, he is great on the ground, he struggles on the feet against heavy hitting fighters, and he’s coming off a KO loss which somewhat worries me a bit because BJJ specialists already aren’t known for their chin durability. I think part of his chin durability also comes from his weight cuts because he does miss weight somewhat often. ANYWAY The main reason why I’m bringing this up is because he’s physically the shorter fighter, with that being the main advantage for any grappler because it leads to easier level changes and all that stuff. So, my main read here for Bonfim is that Bonfim is going to stick to his grappling skill set, look to get the fight to the ground and ride out a control-based win, or hunt for a submission. Now, the problem with all of this stems from the stark difference in cardio, Bonfim’s cardio isn’t anything too special, in fact it’s probably below average, and if he cannot sustain a high pace of wrestling offence, he’s going to struggle because Sola is a cardio freak and can outlast Bonfim on the ground. On the feet, its not even a fair comparison, I won’t even go there.

Sola is 1-1 in the UFC and that probably worries some people, but a loss against Mason Jones needs to be celebrated rather than used as a “but he lost to…!” thing. There are fighters who you can acceptably lose to and still look good against, and to lose to Jones despite putting up a fierce resistance, that’s pretty damn great, even though he got beaten to a bloody pulp. Now, Sola and his cardio are the two things I want to focus on here because you’ll notice the striking disparity once this fight starts and the size advantage and whatnot is obvious enough, but it’s the cardio talking point that I want to yap about because it’s been a major problem for Bonfim and it’s evidently something that Sola uses really well, he has historically used his cardio to just out-strike his opponent, he may not be defensively sound but he’s got the chin durability to kind of be okay in that environment, so I give Sola the nod when it comes to anything striking related. Now, his grappling and wrestling defence is fine, it is probably enough to counter wrestle Bonfim, but it would be his biggest concern so we’ll see just how prepared he is coming into this fight because who knows, right?

I got Sola winning this fight, I am glad that the odds are that lenient or close, but I do expect him to be a slightly heavy favourite nearing fight day, I am far from the best when it comes to reading line movement or predicting it, but let’s see what happens!

Sola via KO R3 - (1/3)

Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio (+325) (30-9-0, NS) v Sam Patterson (-425) (14-3-1, NS)

This is a fascinating one.

Ponzinibbio is certainly at the end of his career, he’s probably fighting out his contract which puts into question what motivation he has left in him to perform well other than money, because that’s always a motivating factor, but like, he’s being matched up against someone who physically is tricky to deal with, with that 7 inch reach disadvantage clearly going to be an issue for Ponzinibbio during this fight. Now, Ponzinibbio was once called the cardio king, or described as someone who could pour on the pressure for all 3 to 5 rounds, but that is no longer the case, he can certainly throw with the same attitude and perhaps power, but that cardio doesn’t last for the long haul, he often starts out strong but then has diminishing output in the later rounds and I suspect that due to the severe reach difference, we are going to see Ponzinibbio use his power and explosiveness early in order to try and catch Patterson quickly before Patterson settles in, and so if you are going to bet Ponzinibbio, I think a first round KO bet is most likely to hit.

With that said, Patterson is coming off a fight against MVP, if you dare call it that, it felt more like a “let’s walk around the cage for 15 minutes, get our 150k pay, then let’s just call it a night” kinda thing, not a bad deal at all, but it’s a fight you can absolutely ignore on ones record, so let’s pretend Sam Patterson never picked up a pen (that’s an Eminem reference, also pen = signing contract to fight etc). His last four fights have been fairly dominant wins against fighters who arguable are “easy to dominate”, but I would say that the primary reason for those wins stems heavily from his reach and height because Patterson is a tall, lanky fighter and it’s hard to prepare for that kind of physical difference in the training camp. Anyway, what you should expect to see in this fight is Patterson hopefully using his reach and range to soften up the target, using the jab to blind Ponzinibbio before adding on layered offense, and just rinse and repeat until either Ponzinibbio drops unconscious or maybe we’ll see Patterson use his length to wrestle, although I’d argue it would be less impressive, and you’d probably want to impress the crowd after that stinker of a fight against MVP.

So, with that said, to conclude succinctly, I think we’re going to see Ponzinibbio at his most dangerous in that first round, to mixed results, but overall I think Patterson and his reach advantage is going to be a major problem for Ponzinibbio, but I mean, it’s a fairly volatile fight already, that first round is going to be incredible.

Patterson via KO R2 - (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Dustin Jacoby (-220) (22-9-1, 3 FWS) v Muhammad Said (D) (+185) (9-0-0, 9 FWS)

Okay, this one is a dangerous one to predict.

Jacoby is one of those fighters who looks really good against moderately okay fighters, except for his last fight because Julius Walker is moderately shit. Now, we all know about the kickboxing accolades of Jacoby, he is a lifelong fighter, has had a gruellingly extensive career in both kickboxing and MMA, and with that comes some concern. You see, Jacoby is not invulnerable to being knocked out, he is not immune to takedowns, he has shown flaws in his career, and at 38 years of age, I cannot help but be worried about Jacoby being a favourite here. Now, I am going to say with clear words that I will likely be picking Jacoby because he’s the one i’m most comfortable in picking due to knowing how he fights, but he is very much a fighter that concerns me here, but a lot of that stems from unknowns from Said. On the feet, I expect Jacoby to look comfortable, it’s his style, striking, so he should damn well look good on the feet, but it’s the takedowns and chin that worries me, so Jacoby is not a “safe” favourite to take here unless Said looks really amateurish and people live bet during the fight or something. Anyway, that’s my analysis for Jacoby, concerning that he’s a favourite given that he’s not exactly a world beater, but I can see why people take him anyway given that he’s a familiar name, and he’s on a winning streak.

Said is undefeated so far, and he’s had a fairly decent rise to the UFC, although a win over Luis Henrique da Silva isn’t exactly a big win, so I wonder just how good Said is. Now, judging by the footage that I have, Said is a fairly dangerous opponent to deal with on the feet, he has the counters in his arsenal as well as diverse striking when he’s on the offense, but he does not have a traditional guard, or a traditional stance, he likes to leave his hands loose so the strikes come from different angles, but this isn’t praise or anything, this is just me noticing stuff that could be interesting for this fight. Now, given that Said’s style is mostly stand up related, I suspect we are going to see Jacoby try to keep distance but Said’s wild, crashing style could interrupt that and thus eventually we could see him catch Jacoby to the chin or head, either way, I want to give Said some “advantages” here because I still cannot fathom how so many people, myself included are picking Jacoby.

So, let me do the thing that I do worst, I am going to side with Jacoby given that he has faced a plethora of decent competition in his career, but I will also err on the side of caution and give Said a spot as an Alt Bet here because of the whole “Jacoby’s chin is a bit rough” ordeal, so once again, be cautious about Jacoby here, this pick is a comfort pick, not an intelligent one.

Jacoby via KO R2 (1/3)

Heavyweight

Valter Walker (-280) (15-1-0, 4 FWS) v Thomas Petersen (+230) (11-4-0, NS)

There are a few fights that you can kind of break down within a sentence or a paragraph, let me attempt that, and once again, fail.

Walker has shown us nothing but an incredible ability to nearly break the ankle of every fighter he’s faced so far, and that’s his thing, he is physically a scary fighter to deal with because he carries power and explosiveness, but he also just generally enjoys to take the fight to the ground because it usually is the path of least resistance, and it’s not like he’s a heel hook merchant, like, he is overall a decent grappler, it’s just that it’s an uncommon enough submission that people don’t expect it. Now, that’s the main thing here, whether or not Petersen will expect the heelhook attempt, because it’s hard to stop it once it’s set in and Walker obviously is great at doing it. The ultimate downside to Walker though is his cardio, he has the most questionable cardio ever, like, you know how DDP looked “tired” in the 5th round against Usman? That’s Walker after 5 minutes, but worse because Heavyweights tend to gas out faster. So, for Walker to do any good in this fight, he needs to stick to the basics and get the fight to the ground, but the problem here is that Petersen has excellent takedown defence, so here’s what I can envision happening… Walker goes for the single or double leg takedown, Petersen probably see’s it coming, sprawling or digging the underhooks, then Walker throws a barrage of strikes up top before going for the same takedown again, rinse and repeat until either Walker gasses out, leaving Petersen room and time to capitalise in the later rounds… or we’ll see a typical Walker fight in which Walker gets the takedown within 50-60 seconds, gets into a submission position and that’s the end of that, either way, predicting a Walker fight is an impossible mission, no matter how many patterns show themselves.

I don’t think I need to breakdown Petersen here, I feel like I already did that somewhat, but Petersens advantages here lie within his takedown defence ability and his potentially better cardio. That’s about it, that’s the breakdown for this fight, I expect to see some wild stuff, I would NOT be surprised to see Walker win, but also lose. Predicting this one is stupid, i’m going with the blatently obvious pick, but with an Alt Bet on Petersen to win via KO in the second or third round because if Walker does gas out… those two rounds are his best chances to win, or maybe he’ll win by points, not sure, i’ll see what the odds are like. Now, I am aware that Petersen’s takedown defence is not a solid reference point given that he hasn’t really been threatened in that realm, but in terms of analysis, it’s his only main thing he needs to worry about.

So, yeah, to conclude, Walker via Sub is once again, my casual take of the day, but I am genuinely intrigued to see the odds for Petersen KO/Points double chance, or KO R2 or 3, might do both, dunno, we’ll see! It is a silly, silly fight though.

Walker via Sub R1 - (1/3)

Welterweight

Abubakar Vagaev (D) (24-4-0, 3 FWS) v Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-3-0, NS)

Izagakhmaev is coming off a debut loss against Nicolas Dalby, and that’s a fine fighter to lose to, but considering that Dalby’s main style is primarily shutting down other fighters styles down, I didn’t see anything too fantastic, sure, he landed 4 takedowns but he also failed to control Dalby for a dominant or meaningful amount of time, and that leaves me with a raised eyebrow. Now, he does come from the mystical lands of Makhachkala, Russia, so maybe he’s the future GOAT of every division, but that gap between his One Championship bout against Shinya Aoki and his UFC debut does leave me intrigued here because was his “loss” attributed to the long time away from the cage? And if so, are we going to see him back to his old, dangerous self? There are quite a few unknowns here, and this fight is far from a hype fight for me, but it just interests me whenever we have these potentially close match ups where both fighters have similar styles, and if Izagakhmaev’s performance against Dalby is replicated this weekend, we could see him get another loss on the record, but I am hoping that he does come into this fight a lot more fresh, a lot more versatile and a lot less rusty.

Vagaev is the two time ACA champion and I believe, and I may be wrong because I don’t watch a lot of ACA so this dude flew under my radar, but I believe given that his record is predominantly decision based wins, we can say that he uses his striking to set up the grappling, there’s no wild stuff here, it’s clean, disciplined stuff and because of that, Izagakhmaev is probably going to cancel out a fair chunk of what Vagaev is going to do during this fight. Now, I can only predict what he might do, and that’s likely wrestling, or at least beating Izagakhmaev to the takedowns.

That’s all I can really say, I genuinely wish I had more to say about him because being a two times ACA champion can be a good thing considering ACA is a decent promotion. I just don’t feel comfortable picking anyone here, it feels like a “wait and see” kind of fight. I might as well go with Vagaev here, I don’t expect anything fantastic or anything pretty, but I’d rather take someone like Vagaev here, over Izagakhmaev who couldn’t do anything to great effect against Dalby.

Vagaev via Dec (1/3)

Heavyweight

Rizvan Kuniev (-280) (14-3-1, NS) v Tyrell Fortune (+230) (18-3-0, 4 FWS)

Kuniev is an interesting one, he’s 1-1 in the UFC, both times facing high level wrestlers in the division, and the one thing that we learnt is that whilst he’s a great counter-wrestler, he’s not anything too special, yes he somewhat outstruck Almeida in his last fight, but those strikes were not exactly anything special, they lacked the KO power that comes with the natural attraction of watching a Heavyweight fight, so where does Kuniev find his success in his next few fights? Well, he’s facing Fortune who is another wrestle heavy fighter, so it’s safe to assume that he is just going to stick to the same gameplan of stuffing the takedown and making his opponent work. Now, the problem with Kuniev is that despite his two fights in the UFC, there is nothing that stands out, and so this write up is effectively me saying “I know what to expect, but also I don’t care too much” over and over again because I genuinely don’t care about a fighter whose entire gameplan is negating other fighters styles. In this case, he is facing another NCAA wrestler and so the fight, at least on paper, is nearly identical to his previous two fights, and so the plan for him isn’t going to change substantially.

Fortune is only one fight deep into his UFC career but he has made a rather positive impression on us, with a win over Marcin Tybura. Now, Fortune’s history doesn’t really need to be recapped because there’s not a whole lot to highlight, he was successful in PFL, but PFL’s roster is questionable at best so his level of competition here in the UFC is a real test for him, but he still has quite a lot of experience to rely on, and I think if he can mix in his wrestling attempts with striking to back it up, he should find some success here. Again, I cannot stress enough how much I want to say very little about this one because Fortune is still reasonably new to me, and whilst his win against Tybura was impressive, it was still a win against a rather aged fighter so I want to see what he can do against a well rounded but rather safe fighter like Kuniev.

I don’t think there’s going to be a finish here, I think this is, once again, going to go long into the third round, or even to the distance. Kuniev’s counter wrestling ability is incredible, and if he can shut down Fortune’s wrestling ability early, we should see the crowd favourite walk away with another win under his belt.

Kuniev via Dec (1/3)

Lightweight

Damian Rzepecki (D) (+270) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) v Magomed Zaynukov (DWCS) (-335) (8-0-0, 8 FWS)

This is going to be short, I promise.

This is effectively a double debut, one that is on the main card which tells me that it’s a must-see kind of fight, and whilst I admire that Rzepecki is taking on Zaynukov, a very much hyped prospect, I also think this is a bit of a set up fight for Zaynukov. Now, Islam Makhachev himself praises this man, and I think that’s what is leading to the monumental hype, he is a star before being a UFC fighter, he has an incredibly extensive Muay Thai background, he has the well rounded ability to fight both on the ground and on the feet, but he has a shorter reach compared to his opponent and I think we’re going to see a lot of blitzing and a lot of crashing attacks from Zaynukov. The height should allow him to effectively tie up Rzepecki in the clinch, in which we should see a major separation in striking ability within the clinch given that Zaynukov’s got that Muay Thai background, and you guys know me, I am a complete sucker for Muay Thai fighters, so consider this a tunnel vision pick.

I got Zaynukov winning this one, it is still effectively a double debut, and thus the short write up, so i’m learning about both fighters still, but I do think Zaynukov should be the side to go here. 2/3 confidence here is not a lock, its just a moderately high confidence pick.

Zaynukov via KO R2 - (2/3)

Welterweight

Islam Dulatov (-750) (12-1-0, 12 FWS) v Wellington Turman (+500) (18-8-0, 3 FLS)

Another short write up!

Dulatov is -750 for a very good reason, he is younger, sharper, and faster than Wellington Turman, he should be able to quickly make his way through Turman and well onto better and more competitive fights. Dulatov is coming off a KO win against Adam Fugitt, and Fugitt is a fairly game fighter, he wants to make fights gritty and entertaining so to win against someone like that is fairly big. Now, outside of that, I can only say with complete confidence that coming from a gym like UFD, he has trained alongside some explosively dangerous fighters like Roberto Soldic and Abus Magomedov, so immediately, you should expect a fast start from this young athlete, he has the confidence to get the job done quickly, and he has done just that repeatedly during his MMA career so far.

Turman on the other hand is someone who is on a nasty losing skid right now, and is also relatively inactive with his last fight being over 2.5 years ago, so I already have concerns about ring rust, and I mean, to come up against a fast starting fighter like Dulatov, it just spells disaster to me, I think Turman is a decent fighter if he wasn’t in the UFC, but I just don’t think he’s a UFC level competitor. Now, given that he is a bit of an eyepoker, I think we might see an incident in the first round that leads to Turman eyepoking Dulatov, likely with his lead hand trying to get distance to escape the aggression of Dulatov, and if that’s the case, then that’s terrible for Dulatov and great for Turman, but I don’t think it would be enough. I think he might come into the cage with a bit of anxious energy, do something on the feet and get clipped on the way to doing that thing by Dulatov and his ridiculous striking speed and power.

I got Dulatov winning this one, that much should be obvious from the get go, but if that eyepoke thing does happen, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dulatov was severely compromised for the remainder of the fight, it’s weird trying to predict fouls, because watch me predict it correctly and now i’ll be blamed for doing some black magic stuff lol.

Dulatov via KO R1 - (2/3)

Co-Main Event

Flyweight

Steve Erceg (#6) (-130) (14-4-0, 2 FWS) v Ramazan Temirov (+110) (19-2-0, 11 FWS)

Erceg is in a bit of an interesting position, he is technically the better fighter here, he has the reach and the height to really make this a competitive fight, but he’s fighting on enemy territory, and if Temirov has even 2 minutes of control time against Erceg, per round, it could result in a win for Temirov given favouritism and whatnot. Now, Erceg is a capable grappler, he is great on the ground and his counter-wrestling should be a focal point here, but I think for as long as this fight remains standing, he should win this fight on the feet provided he doesn’t get chinned in the first round as he is notoriously easy to strike in that first round. Something tells me that the reach and the MMA boxing of Erceg is going to be his main pathway to victory here though because Temirov is going to have to lunge quite a lot to cover that distance, and if he isn’t defensively careful, a counter could come his way and we all know that Erceg is a sharp striker when he gets his reads and timing, so I would give Erceg the “Cleaner striking” advantage, although we all know that sometimes a messy, sloppy fight can also end the fight just as quickly and that’s what Temirov is known to do.

Temirov is coming off a drug suspension though so there’s a high likelihood that he just doesn’t look like the same fighter, he could look less dangerous or less explosive, leading to just Erceg looking better and better as the rounds go by. Now, Temirov is on a big winning streak, but I just can’t quite get a read on him because the sample size in the UFC is quite small, having only two fights in the UFC compared to Ercegs 8, and Erceg has also fought three times in the time that Temirov was suspended, so he’s more active and all that. So, with Temirov coming freshly off a suspension, I don’t think many people know what to expect from him apart from perhaps an early explosive output followed by tapered striking and wrestling attempts if steroids was a direct cause of him being so dangerous early on.

So, with that said, I may take Erceg to win this fight, but it would be a low confidence pick due to factors such as location (favouritism on the scorecards), and the unknowns of Temirov following his suspension. I’m just taking Erceg here mostly because it’s a direct comparison, those last three fights from Erceg were tenacious fights, and I think that’s a decent indicator for potential upcoming success.

Erceg via Dec (1/3)

Main Event

Light Heavyweight

Magomed Ankalaev (#3) (-460) (21-2-1, NS) v Bogdan Guskov (+345) (18-3-1, 4 FWS)

Ankalaev is coming off a KO loss against Pereira, and that’s important to know because he’s facing, once again, an explosive, dangerous first round striker who has one inch reach in advantage, and that’s going to be prevalent here because whilst Ankalaev’s defences are fine, he does use a lot of movement and footwork to escape damaging strikes, so my thought here is that if he’s got some anxiety surrounding his comeback to the cage after his loss to Pereira, he might not be immediately switched on, which means he might not be able to fully counter the wild, long strikes of Guskov. Now, this is the worst case scenario for Ankalaev, but you cannot ignore those two factors, coming off a KO loss, and once again facing a late replacement fighter who has incredible power and has nothing to lose here, as well as having that one inch reach advantage, and sometimes the smallest amount of reach advantages matter, especially given that Ankalaev’s defence is very much movement based, so an extended combination may land. Now, the positives for Ankalaev here is that if he survives the first round output of Guskov, he could rebuild momentum in the later rounds and thus turn the fight around. The other thing here is wrestling, Ankalaev is not exactly a wrestler but he is well rounded, so +1 takedown bets for Ankalaev should be considered in my opinion. With that said, Ankalaev’s striking should be the main thing that we’re all going to focus on, he is likely faster on the feet than Guskov, but its that first round of action that concerns me the most because frankly, you cannot count out Guskov, he has the power to get the upset here, and that leads nicely to his own breakdown, which is probably going to be short!

Guskov may be coming in on short notice, but he was already in fight camp preparing for a fight against Blachowicz next week, so already, any question of cardio should be thrown out the window, he should be fine for at least 3 rounds, but stylistically his best chances to win is in the first round, overwhelming chaos and power, that’s it. It doesn’t need to be clean, it doesn’t need to be technical, it just needs to be during the first 5 minutes in which Ankalaev may not be fully switched on. Now, that’s the complete extent of this breakdown because frankly, short notice is never good for a fighter, it’s the opponent change that concerns me the most because the differences between a 40+ year old Jan Blachowicz and a younger Magomed Ankalaev is stark, so Guskov is fighting an uphill battle here, but I do genuinely think that the first round could result in an upset if all of my previous reads here have been correct.

To summarise my read for the upset… With Ankalaev’s defences being primarily movement based, I expect extended combinations as well as the one inch reach advantage of Guskov to prove dangerous for Ankalaev early on, early on when Ankalaev is still getting his reads going, to if Guskov is to get a KO, it’s very likely going to happen in the first round, so if there is an upset (which i’m not saying here) it would come early from Guskov’s extended combinations. Prediction wise, I got Ankalaev winning, but I will put money on Guskov here, it will be an Alt Bet. 2/3 is not a lock.

Ankalaev via KO R2 - (2/3)

Parlay: Aliev ML + Vagaev/Izagakhmaev Over 2.5 Rounds + Dulatov KO/Points + Ankalaev Rounds 1, 2 or 3.

Alt Bet: Davis via Points, Said via KO R1 or 2 (CR), Petersen via KO/Points, Temirov via KO R1 or 2 (CR) or KO R1, Guskov via KO R1.

Locks: Dulatov

Dogs: None, which is rare.

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

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Hello and welcome to this weekends live chat!

The rules are somewhat simple. Be cordial to all, don't be a prick and all that stuff, as well as NO STREAMING LINKS.

Main Card Start Time: 5 PM ET (I think?)

Prelim Card Start Time: 2 PM ET (I think?)

(Unsure on times because America has like, 5 different timezones so someone correct me if needed)

All on Paramount+

Hello!

I hope you guys are having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta do some admin stuff first, you know how it is by now!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1ux0q1v/ufc_oklahoma_city_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1ux0r63/ufc_oklahoma_city_fight_predictions_tldr/

Now lets see how UFC 329 went!

Parlay: hit for +5 units! That’s two parlays in a row!

Single Bet Recommendations: 3 of 9 Correct

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

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Parlay Leg 1: Barbosa via Sub/Points (Double Chance) (1.35) Sportsbet

Really simple explanation here, Barbosa’s primary route to victory here is to grapple, there’s no way that I can see her winning on the feet, so expect a lot of takedown attempts or trip attempts from Barbosa. Even if she can’t get the sub, the Points part covers this, as long as she doesn’t get smacked around on the feet too much.

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Parlay Leg 2: Coria via KO/Sub (Double Chance) (1.52) Sportsbet

I basically just expect Coria to finish Nicoll, I know that Nicoll is quite survivable and he can do enough to stay engaged and keep busy, but Coria is just a dangerous, dangerous fighter to deal with, he’s got power on the feet and he certainly can get the grappling and wrestling going if he needs to.

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Parlay Leg 3: CLD via KO/Points (1.33) Sportsbet

I am an absolute fan of CLD, he is one of the most dangerous prospects in the division right now and I think coming up against someone like Cannonier who is in his early 40’s… I just don’t think we’re going to see many competitive moments outside of the first round explosiveness from Cannonier followed by a slow build up of momentum from CLD as he finds his timing and gets into his flow state.

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Parlay Leg 4: DDP/Usman R3 Starts Yes (1.29) Sportsbet

I know that the odds for this one are silly, but you must understand the risk involved here, DDP is a finisher, he can finish the fight at any moment from Round 1 to Round 3 (or 4… or 5!), this bet is entirely dependant on Usman and his own gameplan, if he comes in with a wrestle heavy approach or if he engages on the feet (which isn’t too smart of him to do). That’s about it!

Total Odds: 3.52

Total Payout: $17.60

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SINGLE BET RECOMMENDATIONS (Excluding Parlay Legs and the Ezra/Anderson fight)

Harris/Hines

Fight ends in Round 1 or 2 - 1.75

Really don’t know what to expect here, but it’s heavyweight so expect at least some sort of a finish early?

Franco/Rodrigues Jr

Fight to Start Round 3 (No) - 1.43

Again, another fight with a lot of volatility and unknowns, so taking a gamble on an early finish.

JPL/Ko

Fight Goes The Distance - 1.64

I think the stylistic clash here is going to result in a long, hard fought battle between both fighters, with a whole lot of takedowns and such mixed in between.

Bashi/Delgado

Fight Goes The Distance - 1.97

Again, the style clash here is going to result in a bit of a strategic fight from both warriors, Delgado will keep his distance and Bashi will want to get within wrestling range.

Ricci/Kline

BIG MONEY BET

Kline via KO - 6.50

I think Kline wins this fight overall, but most of all I expect her striking to shine here against the shorter grappler, her muay thai style should be accentuated due to the height difference.

McMillen/Montes

2 Options here, equally good value

a) McMillen via KO R1 or 2 - 5.00

b) Montes via Sub R1 or 2 - 5.10

Both require zero explanation.

Hooper/Ramirez

Hooper via Sub R1 or 2 (Combo Rounds) - 3.25

This is his clearest pathway to victory, he needs to get the fight to the ground anyway because his chin doesn’t exist anymore, so… lets hope for an early takedown and a quick submission!

And that’s it!

Any feedback, questions, let me know!

Good luck to you all!