Login

u/Fine_Holiday_237

r/fivethirtyeight r/CampaignFinanceUSA r/oil r/TrackAIPAC r/maritime r/EconomixInsider
Mapped the Strait of Malacca. The chokepoint, the ports (Singapore/PSA, Tanjung Pelepas, Port Klang), piracy, and the bypass routes
▲ 0 r/maritime

Mapped the Strait of Malacca. The chokepoint, the ports (Singapore/PSA, Tanjung Pelepas, Port Klang), piracy, and the bypass routes

Made a geolocated map of the Malacca corridor with a source on every link — thought this crowd might find it useful.

A few things that stood out on the shipping side:

  • About 1/3 of seaborne trade and 80% of China/Japan/Korea oil through a strait under 3km wide at the Phillip Channel.
  • Sea-robbery in the Singapore Strait spiked hard: 80 incidents in H1 2025 vs 21 a year earlier.
  • The transshipment fight at the eastern gate: Singapore (PSA) vs Tanjung Pelepas vs Port Klang.
  • The Malacca Straits Patrol (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand) + ReCAAP holding it together.

Every node sits on its real location; click a node or connection for details + source: https://www.grafofield.com/public/project/c1a2fb53fcd391d2d36d617f93275b052f0ba54009392905

Did it because I find chokepoints fascinating.

u/Fine_Holiday_237 — 6 days ago
▲ 6 r/CampaignFinanceUSA+1 crossposts

Mapped the super PAC spending in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race from FEC filings. Who's spending for and against each candidate

I build sourced network maps of campaign finance, and the Minnesota Senate race had a clean structure worth sharing. Straight from FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures):

DFL primary, near mirror image:

  • North Star Dawn PAC: $7.6M for Angie Craig, $6.5M against Peggy Flanagan
  • DLGA: $3.3M against Craig, $1.1M for Flanagan
  • Clear Voice Minnesota, Center Forward, Minnesotans for Progress and Unite to Win split the same two lanes

Republican primary:

  • Sheepdog PAC: against Michele Tafoya, for Adam Schwarze

One note from the receipts side: North Star Dawn is funded largely by Civic Progress Fund, a 501(c)(4), so that money's original source isn't in the FEC data.

No angle here, I just map the filings. Every node and edge links to its FEC source: https://www.grafofield.com/public/project/3513b040f74392c7700d612d6728db086c07f6a804f393b3

Happy to be corrected on any figure. A couple of the smaller committees I'd want a second set of eyes on.

u/Fine_Holiday_237 — 7 days ago
▲ 11 r/EconomixInsider+1 crossposts

Mapped the Strait of Hormuz supply picture. Which producers can bypass it, who's trapped, and where the exposed demand sits

With Hormuz transits near a 3-month low and Brent back around $89, I mapped the actual supply network behind the headlines. A source on every connection.

For an oil crowd, the interesting part is that the chokepoint isn't uniform:

  • Bypass capacity: UAE (ADCOP to Fujairah, ~1.5–1.8 mbd) and Saudi (East-West line to Yanbu, ~5 mbd nameplate) can move barrels around the strait.
  • No bypass: Qatar's LNG, Kuwaiti crude, and Iraq's Basra exports go through Hormuz or nowhere.
  • Exposed demand: the buyers with the most to lose sit in Asia — Sinopec and the Shandong "teapot" independents.
  • Underrated lever: Lloyd's war-risk premiums can effectively close the strait before any military action does.

Graph, source on every edge: https://www.grafofield.com/public/project/45293e855adf7702c5feadaf268b858654dc8a4aeabb422b

Where I'd want a sanity check from people who actually track this: real (not nameplate) spare bypass throughput right now, and whether the East-West line is a realistic out given Red Sea/Houthi risk.

u/Fine_Holiday_237 — 7 days ago
▲ 15 r/TrackAIPAC

AIPAC’s UDP isn’t spending alone anymore — I mapped the 2026 Dem primary money, and crypto + AI PACs are hitting the same progressive candidates

I put together a sourced network map of the outside money in this year’s Democratic primaries, and I figured this sub would want the AIPAC piece specifically, plus the context around it.
United Democracy Project (AIPAC’s super PAC) is doing what it’s done for a few cycles now: spending in Democratic primaries against the more progressive candidates. Nothing new there on its own.
What jumped out to me is that UDP isn’t the only industry checkbook aimed at those same candidates anymore. Two others showed up hard this cycle:
• Fairshake, the crypto super PAC (Coinbase, Ripple, a16z), and
• Leading the Future, the AI-industry super PAC (a16z again, plus Andreessen and Horowitz personally, $12.5M each).
Different agendas on paper (Israel policy, crypto rules, AI deregulation), but they keep landing on the same side of the same primaries. And at the donor level they’re less separate than the coverage suggests: a16z is a top funder of both the crypto and the AI PAC.
I’m not claiming they coordinate. The map doesn’t show that and I don’t think it’s true. It just lays out who funds which committee and which races they played in, with a source on every connection so you can check any of it yourself.
Map link in the comments.

reddit.com
u/Fine_Holiday_237 — 8 days ago