Early-season dispatches from the Skeena and the Fraser suggest conservation concerns are rising–but that’s not stopping the Americans

Worrying information from the Skeena River, Fraser Panel reports, and test fisheries across the coast is indicating that some of Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s (DFO) preseason forecasts aren’t matching the returns. With budgetary and monitoring cuts already impacting oversight, and public accountability missing in action, it appears the ‘harvest first, then ask questions later’ approach to Pacific salmon fisheries management is back in fashion. Meanwhile, the Americans are using a broken Pacific Salmon Treaty to maximize their harvest of Canadian sockeye…with no obligation to report bycatch of non-target species like steelhead or chinook.

A strong start stutters on the mighty Skeena

Two problems are colliding on the Skeena and Nass.

Watershed Watch Fisheries Advisor David Mills

Biologically, our salmon are threatened by decades of harvest pressure and face rapidly shifting ocean conditions from climate change — precisely when precautionary management matters most. Structurally, the Pacific Salmon Treaty wasn’t built for this: a fair treaty would protect stocks of concern regardless of which side of the border they’re swimming on.

This year’s return shows how that plays out. Skeena sockeye were forecast as high as 3.3 million, but a strong start pushed in-season models up to 4.4 million. So, after the July 10th opening DFO let commercial nets fish nearly every day in July. However, the early run was almost entirely 5-year-old fish — the expected 4-year-old component never showed. Despite rapidly shrinking projections and warnings from First Nations and other stakeholders, DFO didn’t close the fishery until August 2nd. If the final return slips below 2 million, Canadian harvest may already have exceeded what our own management plan allows.

The Americans are taking aim

But our management plan is only half the problem: the Treaty’s restrictions on American harvest expired July 31st. Even though District 104 off the southeast coast of Alaska is a long haul from Alaskan fuel docks and processors, the Southeast seine fleet is repositioning to take advantage of this stretch of the season with no restrictions on Canadian fish. We don’t yet know how many boats will fish, or what the impacts will be to later-timed sockeye or co-migrating steelhead, chinook, chum, and coho. 

What we do know is that the Pacific Salmon Treaty needs urgent reform to ensure that when necessary conservation measures are applied, they’re applied to the population no matter where it’s swimming.

On the Fraser, migratory conditions are good, but the forecast is falling

Even though water temperatures and flow rates in the main stem of the Fraser are conducive to survival, commercial openings for Fraser sockeye in 2026 now depend on upcoming Summer and Late run assessments. Fraser River Panel presentations through August 4th reveal that returns to date are substantially underperforming relative to their pre-season forecasts. The Fraser River Panel is a creation of the Pacific Salmon Treaty. It meets weekly during the fishing season to chart the migration of Fraser sockeye. Its decisions on run size determine whether or not a harvestable surplus exists.

So far, it has determined that:

• The Early Stuart run finished its marine migration early. With an adopted size of 46,000, it’s significantly lower than the pre-season median forecast, though still within the lower probability range.
• The Early Summer run is currently showing the most significant deficit. A commercial opening for Early Summers was only expected to be considered at run sizes above roughly 606,000. 
• The adopted run size of 200,000 is 17% of the pre-season forecast.

Given the returns to date, it’s hard to imagine how the Summer and Late runs will come in with enough strength to allow for an opening. However, the pre-season forecast for both runs is still on the books.

What’s preventing an in-season run size adjustment for the summer run?

As of this week’s Fraser Panel meetings, the Summer run (pre-season forecast: 4,305,000) and the Late run (2,212,000) are both still being managed against their original pre-season forecasts — despite Early Stuart and Early Summer sockeye coming in well below what was predicted. Pacific Salmon Commission staff have made no recommendation to adjust either number downward. The longer those pre-season figures stay in place, the longer American fisheries can stage to capture Fraser sockeye passing through their waters on the final approach to the river.

As with Skeena fisheries, Americans are entitled to a portion of the Fraser run, depending on its abundance. And, as with the Skeena, these Treaty agreements built around fixed allocations and the calendar, rather than the actual condition of the stock, are proving to stymie conservation and prevent precautionary management — which is counter to the core vision of the Treaty: to cooperatively manage, conserve, and rebuild Pacific salmon stocks. 

Water experts said British Columbia isn’t doing enough to address water scarcity as the province experiences another dangerously dry summer.

The Nicola and Okanagan regions are currently at Level 5, the highest drought rating, while several other parts of the Southern and Central Interior also remain at the higher end of the scale.

The extreme dryness prompted the provincial government to issue a temporary protection order on Tuesday for the Salmon River, a last-ditch effort to restrict water use as low stream flows threaten Chinook salmon populations.

It was the fourth time the province has issued a protection order for the Salmon River in the past five years, and it came several weeks earlier than previous orders have been issued.

Data from the River Forecast Centre show B.C. has seen high-level drought every year since 2015, including recent years of more widespread severe drought from 2022 to 2024.

A July 15 report by the POLIS Water Sustainability Project at the University of Victoria said B.C.’s approach to drought management is outdated and under-resourced. It calls for a fundamental shift from a reactive, crisis-driven approach to more proactive drought planning.

“The implicit assumption is that communities just need to endure dry summers until fall rains return. However, the last decade shows that droughts in B.C. are now recurring, multi-year, and wide reaching,” said the report.

The report said that while many factors contribute to drought, climate change will make extreme drought events more frequent in the coming decades. It noted scientists expect glacier runoff to largely vanish by the end of the century.

It said droughts also increase the risk of severe wildfires, which in turn destabilize the landscape and reduce water retention, creating a cycle.

The report said there has been no large-scale provincial government initiative for planning or infrastructure to address drought and its growing impacts.

Oliver Brandes, a POLIS co-director and one of the authors of the report, said the province has failed to fully implement the Water Sustainability Act, which was enacted in 2016 as the main law for managing the use of water resources in the province.

He said the legislation has been useful for crisis response, including fish protection orders, but the province has been slow to use its longer-term drought mitigation tools.

“The power in the act was its medium to long-term tools, which are things like water objectives and planning, finding better ways to allocate water, creating incentives for efficiency, and those tools are the ones that have really had a very limited application,” said Brandes.

Meanwhile, he said the impacts of drought have accelerated faster than expected since the act was introduced 10 years ago.

“The pattern of drought is amplifying and increasing,” said Brandes. “The specifics are varied, but the fact that it’s coming and the fact that it isn’t something you can ride out is the point.”

Coree Tull, chair of the B.C. Watershed Coalition, said nearly a third of B.C.’s water basins are currently experiencing drought, and it’s impacting communities and farmers.

“There’s definitely this mounting frustration that the province isn’t doing more to support communities, to really get ahead of what are becoming now these predictable events, whether it’s drought and water scarcity or flooding, on the other side,” said Tull. “A lot of the province’s actions have largely been really responsive and ad hoc.”

Tull said B.C. has reduced funding for local watershed projects by about 80 per cent in recent years.

The province helped establish the Watershed Security Fund in 2023, which doled out $6 million in grants earlier this year, out of close to $27 million in funding requests.

The B.C. Watershed Coalition has been calling for the province to review its industrial water rates that big industries like mining and LNG pay. B.C.’s rates are among the lowest in Canada and haven’t been reviewed in about 10 years.

Tull said raising rates on par with other provinces could generate an extra $100 million annually for B.C., which could be used to fund watershed protection projects.

“The challenge isn’t lack of solutions, it’s really lack of delivery at this point,” said Tull.

“What we know is that when the province invests in healthy watersheds, and in watershed security, not only does it reduce costs and risks, but it creates certainty for businesses and for investments in the province as well,” she said.

Brandes said the issue doesn’t seem to be a high-enough priority for the government, saying more could have been done ahead of this summer to mitigate the impacts of drought.

“The analysis showed as early as May that there was likely to be a tough season ahead. We know already today the next season will probably be as tough or even tougher than we have,” he said.

Water, Land and Resource Stewardship Minister Randene Neill said in an interview on Friday the province is taking some proactive steps to address water scarcity.

Neill said water metering initiatives have saved the equivalent of almost 200 Olympic swimming pools worth of water every year. She also pointed to local partnerships like the Koksliah Watershed Plan and the Nicola Water Governance Partnership.

“I think that if we had an unlimited budget, we would be able to be so proactive in these solutions to work on water sustainability and watershed sustainability,” said Neill.

“We sometimes don’t know where [climate crises] will pop up or when, so there is always going to be a certain amount of reactivity, but certainly, I think that we can always do a better job at being proactive,” she said.

Neill said her ministry is working with other ministries to review water rates, with the goal of directing any additional revenue to the Watershed Security Fund.

She could not provide a timeline for completing the review, saying only that she hoped it would be finished before her mandate ends in two years.

Useful resource for public education. Please share.

Prime Minister Mark Carney reminded us recently that leadership requires facing the world as it is. The world no longer tolerates polluters dumping their untreated waste into the ocean.  Canada must do the same and deliver on its commitment to ban open net-pen farming of Atlantic salmon in British Columbia by 2029.

Why Building More Reservoirs Won't Solve BC's Water Problem

A common response to water restrictions in BC is that the government simply needs to build or upgrade reservoirs and water pipelines. Water infrastructure does need modernizing in many parts of BC, but that only addresses one side of the problem: supply. We can't afford to forget about demand and, more importantly, replenishment.

Our Watershed Bank Accounts

Think of your local watershed like a bank account. The chequing account is the water we source from daily: rivers, lakes, wetlands, snowpack, and water stored in the soil. The short-term savings is our snowpack. It gets us through those summer months when we need more water. The long-term savings is the aquifers and glaciers built up over centuries. Every farm, every tap, every industrial operation makes withdrawals from these sources.

We need to spend wisely and keep making deposits. Reservoir expansion without watershed restoration just draws down a shrinking account faster. 

The Balance Is Dropping

BC likes to think of itself as water-rich. And generally, we are. But our chequing and savings accounts are shrinking. Approximately 63.8% of BC’s population lives in water-stressed areas. 70% of the Lower Fraser’s wetlands that once held water through summer have been drained, ditched, or paved over. BC’s glaciers are receding rapidly. Forests that once held lots of water in the soil and buffered the spring snowmelt have been severely degraded by clearcutting and replaced by tree plantations. The 2026 snowpack was well below normal across much of southern BC. Some rivers are running dry much earlier than normal. 

That means even when it rains all winter, our watersheds can no longer store and slowly release water the way they once did. Pavement keeps water out of aquifers. Drainage ditches rush water off the land and into rivers and the ocean instead of letting it seep into the soil. Industry pollutes millions of litres of water, strips mountainsides bare, and drains wetlands that took centuries to form. The water cycle is more complicated than that diagram from elementary school. It is possible to run out of water locally. You need not look farther than the Sunshine Coast to see a community that has seriously struggled with water scarcity in recent years. 

And running out hits some British Columbians much harder than others. Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria both benefit from secured watersheds where logging, mining, and industrial activity are restricted to safeguard drinking water. Most small towns and rural communities across BC have no such protection. Their drinking water sources are directly exposed to industrial activity happening upstream. Defending drinking water at the source is far cheaper than treating it after the damage is done. Right now, that protection is a privilege extended only to BC's largest cities.

If we fail to address watershed degradation, and our governments only find ways to draw more from our water accounts while ignoring replenishment, more communities are going to go broke. 

Watersheds Are Infrastructure

Improving water efficiency is important. Drip irrigation for agriculture, water metering for municipalities, and enforcing meaningful conservation requirements for major industrial users are all good ideas that will only matter more as BC's population and economy grow.

But replenishment is what keeps the whole system solvent. This means treating watersheds as critical infrastructure. Healthy forests capture and slowly release water through deep root systems, seasonal creeks, and natural springs. Wetlands recharge groundwater and aquifers. Intact floodplains with connected side channels slow runoff and store the water in the gravel and sediment beneath and beside rivers. These are not nice-to-haves. This is how we refill our chequing and savings accounts and ensure safe and abundant water for all British Columbians. Not to mention, it’s also how we provide enough water for salmon that feed our wildlife and provide us with a source of local, healthy food.   

BC’s watersheds have been changed at an industrial scale over decades through the cumulative impacts of mining, logging, oil and gas extraction, agriculture and urban expansion. That means we have to restore watershed functions to match our withdrawals and replenish our water bank accounts. Since so many landscapes have lost the ability to hold water on the land, restoring wetlands is one way to restore a critical function in a watershed. The BC Wildlife Federation’s Watershed Team has restored 100 wetlands across BC. First Nations and local stewardship groups have helped restore creeks and wetlands at hundreds of locations through programs like the BC Watershed Security Fund and the Healthy Watersheds Initiative. But there are thousands more projects that still need doing. This kind of work creates local jobs, habitat for wildlife and captures water so that groundwater reserves can be recharged.

Focussing on replenishing our water accounts is the fiscally responsible thing to do. Careless spending and not topping up our accounts is how BC becomes water-bankrupt. Restoring our watershed infrastructure is how we make sure every community in BC has clean water, now and for the next generation.

We studied a watershed on the west shore of Lake Okanagan near Summerland, British Columbia. Around 40 per cent of the site experienced logging. This watershed is no exception, as B.C.’s landscape has become dominated by clear-cut logging.

We found that, without logging, flood risk due to reduced snow melt was decreasing. But after logging, this was reversed, leading to significant upward trend in flood risk.

Before going through B.C. from north to south, I like to look through the rest of the salmon world. It appears Russia is on track to reach its forecast, which is much lower than recent years, likely due to warm marine temperatures in the western Pacific. Poor Russian production will contribute to what is forecast to be a record low year for global wild salmon production. Markets are already tight and about to get tighter. I expect ex-vessel prices—the dockside prices paid directly to fishers before processing, packaging, etc.—to be good for fishers in B.C., although reduced competition at the processor level will temper this a bit.

Speaking about processors in B.C., there have been some striking changes. First Nations companies have made major investments in Hardy Buoys Seafood and North Delta Seafoods. It is my understanding that this trend is poised to continue.

Anyway, back to my short survey of the rest of the wild salmon world. Japan is forecast to again have a very poor return, again due to marine conditions in the western Pacific.

Harken back to what I said in my previous blog about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is currently benefiting salmon rearing in the eastern Pacific and B.C., and punishing those rearing in the western Pacific returning to Russia and Japan, but it will inevitably switch back and again have a negative impact on our salmon. Scientists are watching the PDO closely as they are expecting such a shift. I shudder to think of the impact on our salmon if this occurs in the next few months, as some scientists are suggesting—coinciding with what is expected to be a very strong El Niño. However, my most current reading of the situation suggests that the current negative phase benefitting B.C. salmon will continue.

The graphic above illustrates what I have been discussing in this, and the last two, blogs. Red is warmer than average, blue cooler, and white average. Salmon like average or cooler waters in the North Pacific. If you are a Russian or Japanese salmon, the environment has been difficult the last three years, but for many species of Alaskan and B.C. salmon, times have been good in a relatively compressed area. Credit: Copernicus Marine Service

Continuing with my survey of non-B.C. salmon fisheries, Alaska’s Bristol Bay sockeye forecast is a bit off from recent years with a forecast catch of only 30 million sockeye. Test fishing and current fishing patterns appear to confirm the forecast catch, although the return itself will likely be larger than forecast. The sockeye are smaller than predicted which also suggests that the return will be larger than forecast. Very poor chinook returns to some of these systems have curtailed early fishing. Unlike Canada, Alaska has established escapement goals for salmon caught as bycatch; anything that threatens achieving those goals must be addressed.

The famous Copper River sockeye fishery, which typically delivers the first sockeye of the year, with much fanfare and high prices, has been struggling. First, poor chinook numbers (a concern across Alaska because subsistence catch—enjoyed by all Alaskans—must be protected) limited commercial sockeye fisheries. And then, after a couple of decent early openings, sockeye numbers have sagged and the fishery remains closed.

It is too early to say much about any other Alaskan fisheries or species. Chinook are clearly trending poor-to-very-poor throughout Alaska, sockeye will be good despite Copper River, hatchery pink returns to Prince William Sound are expected to be relatively poor, and it is an off year for Southeast Alaskan pinks. The first couple of openings in SSE, where pinks would have been expected, have been awful. It has me worried about northern B.C. pinks.

Early terminal chum hatchery fisheries suggest the returns to their major hatcheries may be good. This is encouraging as I have often found that when chums do well in Alaska, they seem to do well everywhere, which may support my hypothesis that there is a strong relationship between marine rearing conditions and region wide chum abundance. All of the above, combined with poor Russian and Japanese production of wild salmon, is what is contributing to a very tight global wild salmon market.

Turning to B.C., here are my best guesses for 2026 returns and fisheries.

Northern Troll Fisheries

This fishery mainly focuses on valuable chinook and coho. Their chinook allocation is much higher than their expected catch as concerns about the fisheries’ impacts on West Coast Vancouver Island wild stocks limits northern trollers fishing time. You might reasonably ask why then is the recreational fishery allowed to catch these same chinook the trollers are required not to catch? It is because our current allocation policy gives priority to the recreational sector. This policy is under review, and as you can imagine, it has been very contentious, with First Nations and the commercial sector holding similar views and the recreational sector arguing for the status quo. The federal Fisheries Minister is expected to make a decision this September.

The forecast for chinook abundance on the North Coast ranges from below escapement objectives to well below escapement objectives. Note the difference from Alaska. In Alaska, if a stock doesn’t reach its escapement objective, management actions are required (Note: Canadian-origin stocks caught in Alaska are not given the same care). But in Canada it is ‘we will think about it’. 

Coho are much the same. Coho are forecast to be ‘near average’ in the Nass and ‘some concern’ in the Skeena.

Areas 1 and 2 – Haida Gwaii

I anticipate there will be a good return of pink salmon and a terminal seine fishery in Masset Inlet. There should also, hopefully, be a surplus to a few other small streams on the east and west coast of the archipelago. We haven’t seen many chums return to Haida Gwaii since I was in my 30s. It was always one of my favourite fisheries. It was relaxing after the turmoil of all the summer fisheries, although the weather could be challenging at times. They are good memories, but unfortunately, that’s all they are. Only the few of us that are left understand what has been lost.

Area 3 – Nass Region

The forecast for Nass sockeye is good and I see no reason to doubt it. Early numbers are very encouraging. What will limit marine fisheries is concerns for other stocks, species, and allocating the surplus between in-river, marine, and other Nations’ fisheries.

Unlike the rest of B.C., most salmon fisheries within Nisga’a Lisims territory are managed by the Nation under their Treaty with Canada. The one exception is the fishery managed by the Gitanyow in their adjacent territories.

Pink returns to Nass and other streams in Portland Canal are expected to be average. But early fishing suggests otherwise. The first opening was terrible. I expect the forecast is in jeopardy.

The tight global wild salmon market will benefit seine fishermen. When I was unloading seine boats at the Royal plant after a North Coast fishery, I would have to figure out how to unload and re-ice 75 boats within 24 to 48 hours. Believe me, there were many sleepless nights. And my company was responsible for only about 30 per cent of the North Coast seine fleet. I do hope the seine fleet is not disappointed.

This year, maybe 25 to 30 seine boats are expected for the whole North Coast, which is high compared to last few years. My understanding is that Canadian Fish mobilized more of their fleet this year.

So why doesn’t DFO allow them to fish 24/7? I mean, most seine boats can only hold about 15,000 to 20,000 pink salmon. Once full, they have to run to Prince Rupert, unload, and travel back, which can take 20 hours. So, not all 30 boats are fishing at once if fishing is good. Some are fishing, some are travelling, some are unloading.

The reason fishing is restricted is because monitoring of discards, monitoring of compliance with rules associated with discards, and monitoring of escapements of target and non-target species are all insufficient. And this was before this year’s massive DFO cutbacks on monitoring. The result is a significant proportion of the potential catch in 2026 will be foregone even though demand is good, and prices are high.

Please don’t take this as me saying this is all on DFO’s shoulders. Fishermen and processors are equally complicit. Fishermen and processors are wedded to how fisheries were managed 40 years ago. There are many innovative things they could embrace to increase their catch of pinks, reduce their impact on non-target species, and provide DFO and the public with independent measures of their impacts. They refuse to take the lead. Hence, it is hard to have sympathy when they complain.

This season, for the first time in years, the seine fleet will be allowed to retain chums all year. Chum salmon are bycatch, but a highly valuable one, in the seine pink fishery.

Area 4 – Skeena Watershed

The Skeena River sockeye return is expected to be poor, with a forecast of around 1.5 million, well short of the average. However, that is the ‘point’ estimate, the range of possible returns is between 800,000 and 3.3 million. As I write this, Skeena sockeye are doing exceptionally well, leading to lots of excitement that 2026 may see Skeena sockeye numbers that exceed even the upper end of the forecast.

However, the Skeena sockeye return is comprised of almost 30 genetically distinct populations that spawn in very different habitats. The majority of Skeena sockeye return to Babine Lake and its tributaries. It is very early in the season to be seeing a lot of Babine sockeye, so we have to bide our time to see if the current trend holds. But it is indeed encouraging and I am very bullish on the return. I note that the fish are a good size and appear to be taking a more direct route to the mouth of the Skeena. This will decrease Alaskan interceptions and increase the terminal run size. DFO will be under a lot of pressure to fish hard through to August 8th, when the fishery is supposed to close to protect other species and late-timed Babine River sockeye.

The only note of concern I will add is the high levels of in-river migration mortality seen on the Fraser over the past couple of decades now appear to be showing up in northern sockeye. In 2024, 1.2 million Babine sockeye went unaccounted for. Currently, freshwater migration conditions appear to be good.

Unfortunately, if the Skeena sockeye return is as large as it appears, industry will struggle to catch their allowable allocation without fishing almost continuously. There simply are not the boats nor processing infrastructure left to handle this much fish. But fishing 5 to 7 days a week will result in high impacts on non-target species and weaker sockeye populations. DFO has a challenge on their hands.

A very strong year for Skeena pink salmon is anticipated. However, early indications in Alaska and the Nass have me doubting the forecast. But the timing of Skeena pinks overlaps with the very weak Babine River sockeye (which used to be a major driver in Skeena wild sockeye abundance), chums, and steelhead. Therefore, commercial opportunities will be limited. I should add, to avoid confusion, that Babine River sockeye is a later-timed stock that comprises one of the three major sockeye timing groups that spawn in the Babine watershed. The timing of Babine River sockeye is slightly later than spawning channel-enhanced Babine sockeye, although they still overlap. This population, because of its timing, is more vulnerable to Alaskan effort than earlier-timed Skeena sockeye.

Interestingly, the large return of Lakelse pink salmon (a lower tributary of the Skeena) expected last year based on abundances noted in fisheries and the Tyee test fishery either didn’t materialize, or more likely (or hoped), spawned in the mainstream Skeena due to elevated water temperatures in the Lakelse. Changes in our climate are changing salmon behaviour and survival in unexpected ways.

Skeena chums remain depressed. Coho are forecast to be less than target and chinook are forecast to be poor. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this forecast confirmed, considering what we are seeing with chinook in Alaska.

There is no forecast for Skeena steelhead. I anticipate they will again be relatively poor in that steelhead are one of the furthest westward-migrating salmonids and they may have been impacted by the same conditions experienced by Russian salmon. And with the forecast for Alaskan pinks being poor, I would expect we will again see a lot of Alaskan effort in District 104 targeting a mix of higher-valued Canadian sockeye, chums, and coho. This is never good news for steelhead as this effort tends to be concentrated during the peak of their migration timing.

Areas 5 – 10 – Central Coast: 290 salmon streams stretching from the Skeena River in the north to Cape Caution in the south. Communities include Kitkatla, Hartley Bay, Kitimat, Klemtu, Kitasu, Bella Bella, and Bella Coola

It is frustrating for me to discuss Central Coast fisheries because I anticipate that there will be some decent returns of pinks and chums that would have, in the past, supported good fisheries. But, as I said above, DFO will have to fish blind. DFO has gutted their fisheries and escapement monitoring programs in many of the key areas of the Central Coast. And even if there are obvious signs of an abundance of pinks and/or chums, the lack of monitoring means we will know little more than that. Hence, if a manager opens a pink fishery based on obvious signs of abundance, they will not be able to evaluate where the abundance is destined, whether escapement objectives are likely to be achieved, the potential impact on bycatch, and whether the escaping salmon are likely to successfully spawn.

I am particularly concerned about Area 6—the waters around Hartley Bay and Kitamaat. It should see a good return of pink salmon which should allow for fisheries. But a seine fishery can also greatly impact depressed chum populations. I have no idea how, after eliminating the charter patrol operation during the time fishing would be expected, DFO will be able to defend having a fishery. Also, for the first time in my memory, some Area 6 streams saw significant pre-spawn pink mortality in 2025. Something we only know about because of the presence of the charter patrolman.

Area 23 – Somass (Barkley Sound) Sockeye and Chinook

Pacific Fishery Management Area 23

The Barkley Sound sockeye fishery is well underway. Catches are good and prices are excellent. It has been a great start to the B.C. salmon fishery.

There are some concerns with one of the component sockeye populations (Sproat Lake), but cool weather, an excellent industry, a First Nations-supported monitoring program, and a multi-stakeholder management body should allow the fishery to proceed and ensure escapement objectives are attained for all three systems.

However, fishing is likely to be curtailed, even in the face of this year’s strong return, to ensure Sproat and Henderson Lake achieve their minimum target escapements.

I anticipate later this season we will see good commercial and recreational catches of hatchery chinooks in Barkley Sound and some of the other smaller hatchery systems north of Barkley Sound.

Wild chinook salmon populations on the southern West Coast of Vancouver Island remain poor and will be the focus of a rebuilding plan being developed. Herein lies the challenge of managing mixed-stock fisheries. As I mentioned, there will be lots of Canadian and US hatchery chinook present along the West Coast of Vancouver Island, but they co-migrate with depressed populations of wild chinook. Recreational fisheries will therefore be constrained accordingly.

I anticipate we may see some chum fishing opportunities associated with chum hatcheries on the West Coast of the island. And recreational fishing for coho should be excellent.

East Coast of Vancouver Island and Mainland Inlets

If you are bored during a family barbecue this summer that has a couple of recreational fishermen in attendance, mention that you read that this Greg Taylor guy said a lot of B.C. chinook populations are not doing well. They will jump down your throat, exclaiming that I am an idiot, and that there are more chinook and coho in the Salish Sea today than they have ever seen. You can step away for a beer as the rant will still be going on when you return.

The thing is, they are not wrong. But it is one of those times when two things can be true at the same time. There are enormous numbers of hatchery chinook and some healthy populations of wild chinook in the Salish Sea. And both wild and hatchery coho are abundant. Yet, at the same time there are numerous populations of wild chinook that are in the ‘red zone’ which means fishing mortality must be strictly curtailed. Furthermore, since the downturn in these populations began several years ago, First Nations have limited their chinook-targeted food fisheries for conservation reasons.

But they are now arguing DFO management is effectively giving the recreational fishery priority access, which is contrary to the Constitution. First Nations are therefore talking about harvesting some of these chinook this year.

If they do, it could increase harvest rates over the rates DFO says are required to protect these populations. Something will have to give if these populations are to be preserved for future generations of both people and Southern Resident Killer Whales.

This takes me into a discussion I have been having with some folks. When we discuss salmon conservation and harvests, we talk about how many fish we can allow harvesters to catch and still preserve the aggregate number of fish required by an SMU. What is an SMU? It stands for Stock Management Unit. An SMU is comprised of several CUs, or conservation units. A CU is a distinct group of salmon that is managed separately because it is genetically, geographically, or biologically unique. The chinook belonging to individual CUs within an SMU can be returning to different small watersheds across a wide swath of B.C.’s geography. Hence, a harvest rate applied to an SMU may well not be sufficient to protect the various CUs within an SMU.

If you live in an area with one of these component CUs that is not being protected, you certainly should think twice about catching any fish when they return to the stream near your home. But what about your right as a Canadian to ‘food security?’ Why is the allowable catch divided between the small number of people who have recreational, commercial or First Nations’ access, and conservation? Why are Canadians being denied access to food near their often-rural homes and communities in favour of large and often powerful interest groups?

As I said earlier, similar access is protected by Alaska. But not in Canada. I began thinking of this issue as the price of healthy food choices began to escalate, especially for those living in rural areas. It seems to me that we should at least have a discussion as to the general public’s right of access. Maybe escapement targets for CUs should also incorporate some access for people who live in and around these CUs. These are philosophical meanderings, but I figure, as I age, I should be allowed a few of these.

But back to the East Coast of Vancouver Island and the Mainland Inlets. It is, of course, an off-year for Fraser pinks, but I expect most local rivers on the island and in the mainland inlets will see a good return of pink salmon.

I am very hopeful there will be a good return of pinks to the Quinsam River, a tributary of the Campbell River. Local First Nations, in partnership with Walcan Seafoods, secured a Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification of the fishery. The certification will give them preferential access to international markets. This is because they are the only MSC-certified fishery in B.C., since the rest of the B.C. industry gave up the MSC certification of B.C. salmon several years ago because DFO management could not live up to MSC standards. The key to this fishery receiving MSC certification is that it is a ‘known-stock’ or ‘terminal’ fishery and the First Nations have MSC-compliant monitoring in place.

I would also anticipate that we will continue to see the benefits of the removal of fish farms from the Broughton and Discovery Islands, particularly for mainland inlet populations, but also for the majority of South Coast populations that migrate through northern Johnstone Straits on the way to their first year in the ocean.

I am not sure what to say about South Coast hatchery chums. There is something happening in their outmigration from hatcheries in the spring. Their survival has been diminishing over the last few years, leading to no, or small, commercial fisheries. In that their fry are entering a very productive Salish Sea, my guess is there is a predation issue. But it is only a guess. Whatever the case, I anticipate 2026 returns will struggle to achieve escapement objectives.

Fraser River Salmon

As you are probably aware, 2026 is the dominant year in Fraser sockeye’s four year cycle. I am bullish on Fraser sockeye. The Salish Sea appears to be very productive, therefore outmigrating Fraser smolts two years ago should have survived well. Their passage out to sea as young salmon took them through significantly fewer fish farms, and the marine environment looks favourable, especially because they shouldn’t have had to compete with massive numbers of Alaskan hatchery-produced pink salmon.

The thing to watch is that the dominant Fraser cycle has been historically supported by very large returns of late-run sockeye, including those returning to the famous Adams River. However, these systems have suffered several years of poor escapements due to in-river mortality. Further, freshwater environmental conditions may have created additional challenges for the juvenile late-run sockeye rearing in these systems.

Therefore, unusually, it is the summer run returns to Quesnel, Chilko, and Fraser/Francois Lakes that are expected to be most productive and generate the most fishing opportunities this year. But, of course, the Fraser Panel will have to consider the impacts of fisheries targeting these populations on overlapping returns of Early Summer and late-timing sockeye. And within each of all these run-timing groups there are stocks that are expected to be abundant and those that are expected to return below their escapement objectives.

Because the Fraser Panel is charged with achieving the escapement targets for the run-timing groups (equivalent to SMUs discussed earlier), it is less concerned with protecting weak component populations.

On top of all this uncertainty will be concerns over in-river mortality due to the low snowpack in some areas and impacts of El Niño on stream temperatures and flows.

The Fraser Panel will face considerable challenges this year when deciding on US and Canadian mixed-stock coastal fisheries. But, even with all this, I would not be surprised to see a potential catch of 3 to 4.5 million Fraser sockeye.

Although small compared to dominant years in the past, it would be a very good catch relative to recent years. I say ‘potential’ because the fishing and processing sectors are a shadow of what they once were. Access to ice, unloading, and processing will challenge the industry, never mind the small number of boats they must rely on to catch and deliver the harvest.

I would expect the US to be aggressive again. As we all learned last year, while Canada has some concerns, and takes some actions in regard to the bycatch of Fraser-bound coho, steelhead, and chinook; the US does not.

Fraser chum salmon are not forecast to provide a significant surplus. Furthermore, any potential commercial fishing opportunities will be constrained by the need to protect critically endangered Thompson and Chilcotin steelhead, which hit new lows last year.

Fraser coho are a success story. After years of being classified as endangered and managed accordingly, recovery efforts and improved environmental conditions have led to significant recovery, initiating discussions on how to carefully increase fishing access. This should help increase the fleet’s access to Fraser sockeye.

Fraser chinook, as discussed previously, range from endangered to very abundant. Most ‘stream-type’ chinook — those that spend their first year or years in freshwater are doing very poorly. ‘Ocean-type’ — those that go to sea soon after hatching out of the gravel — are abundant.

Unfortunately, they all tend to rear and return through the Salish Sea making them equally vulnerable to recreational fishers. Protecting the former, while allowing harvest opportunities for the latter, in a fishery where there is almost non-existent independent monitoring, means we don’t really have any idea how effective DFO’s management strategy is, other than there has been no recovery for most stream-type chinook. It appears that 2026 will continue this depressing trend as early test fishing indicates very poor returns of stream-type Fraser chinook.

Final Thoughts

My final note is to encourage everyone to support the B.C. salmon fishery and fishermen by having a few salmon barbecues this year.

But please, only buy your Ocean Wise-recommended Canadian salmon from trusted sustainable sources. It is not only illegal, but unethical, to buy ‘black market’ salmon.

And always ask the person behind the fish counter at your major grocery outlet where their ‘fresh’ salmon is from. They often display ‘fresh’ sockeye that are actually previously frozen Alaskan sockeye.

And while sockeye is the star of the fish counter, look hard at coho, pinks, and chums. I often prefer them as the quality can be just as good, fresh fish is often available before, during and after the sockeye season, and they are less expensive.

Although, I will admit, because of poor monitoring of bycatch, discards, compliance, and escapements in many of B.C.’s seine fisheries producing these fish; it is hard to find Ocean Wise or MSC-recommended pinks and chums, Quinsam pink salmon being the exception.

Have a good summer. I will provide a report on the season that was in the fall.

I promised this forecast some time ago; I apologize for the delay. Life and other files got in the way. But mostly I wanted to read the tea leaves myself rather than simply regurgitate DFO’s outlook, now six months old.

Providing you with this year’s forecast has turned into a challenge. When I started out my career, closing in on 46 years ago, it was much simpler: make an educated guess as to how many fish might return. From that starting point, one could estimate a safe harvest and trust the balance would spawn, and begin the 10,000 year old cycle once again.

Climate change has wrecked that arithmetic. It’s no longer clear what proportion of the salmon escaping fisheries will actually spawn. We can still forecast a return, and estimate what proportion of the return might be retained and released, but we now have to also estimate how many of the fish that escape being retained in fisheries will die before spawning, killed by fishing-related injuries or disease, low water, high stream temperatures, or a combination thereof.

In the past, the largest source of human mortality was fishing; now it can be human influences on ecosystems and the climate. Most forecasts begin with how many salmon returned in the brood year, but if the fish that returned never spawned, or their offspring’s productivity was compromised by the environment, the uncertainty of any forecast expands dramatically. (My earlier look at the environmental conditions shaping 2026 salmon returns provides more context on what these fish likely faced from egg to adult.)

Moreover, I must consider not only a fisheries’ target catch; I have to consider the co-migrating stocks returning alongside them, how fisheries will impact them, and whether the impacts of being discarded along with potential in-season flows and increased temperatures may also affect their survival.

This season is especially tricky. Marine conditions have favoured B.C. salmon for two or three years now. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-running pattern of warmer and cooler ocean conditions across the North Pacific, has been in a negative phase. That generally means cooler, more productive conditions in the eastern Pacific, which likely treated many B.C. salmon well. So I’m somewhat bullish on a few key fisheries. But a strong El Niño is building and will be with us all summer and through the winter. Returns, no matter how abundant, target and non-target species alike, may run straight into a buzzsaw of poor freshwater conditions.

The Fraser River Panel, the Canada-U.S. body that manages Fraser sockeye and pink salmon fisheries under the Pacific Salmon Treaty, confronts this directly. It applies a “Management Adjustment,” which is an estimate of Fraser River sockeye that will die en route to the spawning grounds due to low river flows or high temperatures. The Fraser Panel adds the Management Adjustment on top of the stock management unit’s escapement goal, thereby effectively reducing the available catch by an equal amount.

These Management Adjustments can increase escapement objectives, and correspondingly reduce fisheries access, from 20 to 100 per cent, depending on the run-timing group.

DFO has no such Management Adjustment for most non-Fraser fisheries, many of them on the central and north coasts.

Stop and think about this for a minute.

Managers must guess how many fish may return to start off the season. Managers then use, in some cases, test fisheries, with an acknowledged wide range of error to estimate what is actually coming back. They then must decide if fisheries can be safely permitted, knowing that First Nations requirements get priority, and then, after all this uncertainty, do not really know whether the fish that escape the fisheries will spawn. And this is for the targeted species. The same applies for all the non-target bycatch that has little market value. And now DFO is gutting its monitoring and assessment budgets making a very difficult situation near impossible.

So ask yourself: if you were DFO, would you cut the people who’ve spent decades monitoring these fisheries and streams immediately before the 2026 season? I doubt it. Yet DFO is cutting their pay by 70 per cent this year. The effect being they won’t be on the water in 2026 to monitor escapements, fisheries, or whether the fish are surviving to spawn at all. As one DFO manager told me, off the record, “we are being forced to manage blind.”

To fill the gap, DFO is asking fishermen to report their catch to processors twice a day, and processors to pass it to DFO. Retained catch will be accurate, because that’s how fishermen are paid. Bycatch, discards, and compliance are another matter. Both commercial fishermen and processors face a significant conflict of interest and will be reluctant to report anything to DFO that may limit fishing opportunities. Having been in that position, I can tell you the response will vary. Recreational fisheries are much the same.

I am hopeful that over time First Nations Guardians can take on most of the responsibilities of the charter patrol people. But transferring, in some cases, decades of experience and knowledge, will take care, time, and thoughtfulness, none of which DFO is widely known for. In the transition period, salmon, and salmon fisheries, are vulnerable.

Traditional mixed-stock fisheries depended on comprehensive and transparent monitoring of target stocks, bycatch, discards, escapements, and compliance. DFO budget cuts have severely eroded this capacity over the past couple of decades. This year’s proposed cuts end any pretense that DFO can manage the salmon resource for the benefit of all Canadians.

This isn’t a call to end salmon fishing. It’s a call to rethink how we manage them. What worked half a century ago won’t work today, not with climate change, this much uncertainty, and DFO budget cuts. Commercial and recreational fishing matters to our food security. It has a place in our economy and culture. But in the absence of comprehensive monitoring of fisheries and escapements, we need to concentrate fisheries where and when we can evaluate their impacts, including being able to count how many successfully spawn. This means fishing in more terminal areas — closer to the rivers or streams where salmon are returning — where managers can more clearly identify which stocks are being caught.

All this to say is, keep in mind as you read through my forthcoming forecast of expected returns and fisheries, that the forecast does not necessarily speak to how many salmon might successfully spawn in 2026.

Surrey city officials are under fire for their decision to defy Metro Vancouver's water restrictions.

Surrey is the only Metro Vancouver water district municipality to remain at Stage 2 restrictions rather than moving to the stricter Stage 3, according to the city's director of utilities.

It's the first time in memory that a member municipality has gone rogue over the region's water plan, Metro Vancouver staff say.

BC Hydro confirmed this week it is considering another hydroelectric dam on the Peace River (this one called “Site E”), as well as damming the Homathko River above Bute Inlet.

It’s part of a growing scramble for new electricity, as the public utility grapples with outsized promises our politicians have made to global LNG investors, and now, AI data centres.

British Columbians have a narrow window of time to fight off these parasitic industries, save our public energy grid and harness it to power a job-creating clean energy revolution.

The path our province ultimately takes could be determined by a hearing happening right now at the BC Utilities Commission (scroll down for instructions on how to participate).

Shortages loom in just four years

Voracious electricity demand from LNG terminals and data centres has BC Hydro rushing to upgrade existing dams, and plan new ones. But dams and transmission lines are just one part of an urgent push to boost the province’s available power.

In the last year and a half, BC Hydro has signed deals with a slew of private wind projects, most of which are majority-owned by First Nations.

The utility has announced it will spend a billion dollars on a new electricity conservation campaign, giving out programmable thermostats so households can save power for industry.

More controversially, BC Hydro is extending contracts with two large gas-fired power stations, negotiating to buy one of them, and rethinking restrictions on burning fossil fuels for power.

It’s also investing in “biomass” generation and geothermal energy, which are still at an experimental stage, and utility-scale batteries, which are proving hard to buy on short notice.

Why the panic? Because with Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG under construction, and Tilbury LNG, Ksi Lisims LNG and LNG Canada Phase 2 moving toward final investment decisions, BC Hydro has realized it could have a power shortage by 2030.

The bonkers plan to electrify LNG

There is only one large-scale LNG terminal in the world that runs on grid electricity. It’s in Texas, and has been plagued by problems since it opened, including an explosion and frequent power outages.

B.C. wants to electrify five LNG terminals, to produce what it claims is “clean” fuel. But this does nothing to reduce global climate impacts – and it risks breaking BC Hydro.

Conventional LNG plants, including the first phase of the LNG Canada terminal in Kitimat, burn their own gas for power. About 10 to 15 per cent of the methane coming through the pipeline is burned to power the giant freezers that turn the rest of the gas into a liquid.

Using a city’s worth of electricity instead would allow more of the gas coming through the pipeline to be liquified for export. So all that fuel would get burned overseas.

That shifts the emissions onto other countries’ books. But who pays for this accounting trick? BC Hydro ratepayers, who pay for the generation and transmission infrastructure.

Instead of selling surplus renewable energy at a premium to our neighbours, B.C.’s big idea is to sell that power at a loss to LNG companies – with B.C. families and businesses making up the difference on our bills.

The worst possible time

This is happening when the provincial grid is already under serious strain. B.C. just came out of a drought that reduced water levels in reservoirs, and forced us to become a net importer of electricity for three straight years.

Big mines and fracking operations want more access to electricity, to reduce their use of industrial diesel generators on remote project sites.

Then there’s the growing demand from households and companies switching to electric vehicles and heat pumps, which is key to decarbonizing our economy.

BC Hydro admitted during recent regulatory hearings that it doesn’t have enough electricity to meet the government’s legislated climate targets for 2040 or 2050.

All those problems are solvable. A capacity shortage in 15 years, we can plan for. But the limitless appetite of the LNG and AI industries is a different beast. This attempted takeover of our public renewable energy grid requires immediate action.

The breaking point

The government has already promised 400 megawatts of hydropower to AI data centres, which is more than a third of the capacity of Site C, now the John Horgan Dam.

British Columbians paid $16 billion for that dam, and flooded a fertile valley full of history. The idea of making that sacrifice, and then using the power to run computer programs that might take our jobs or harm our kids, is deeply upsetting to a lot of people.

A single large LNG terminal would gobble up the rest of the capacity of the Horgan dam. Five would require a complete rethink of the energy system that has served us for generations.

Fortunately, BC Hydro actually has to explain its solutions to the BC Utilities Commission, and get its long-term strategy approved by the regulator. That’s happening right now.

You can submit a comment to the BCUC until June 25, telling them what you think of the dog’s breakfast that BC Hydro has put before the regulator.

Have your say on the Integrated Resource Plan

Under “Proceeding Name” there’s a drop down menu that allows you to select “BC Hydro 2025 IRP”. If you’re not already registered as an intervener, select “No” on the question that follows.

Add your message in the Comments box, where you can type up to 1500 characters. If you want to make a longer comment, or add any supporting visuals, you can attach documents in a bunch of different formats.

The stakes are high. If LNG or AI investors realize the B.C. government has been exaggerating the amount of electricity available, jeopardizing future grid stability and stirring up public opposition, that’s just one more reason not to risk money on shaky proposals.

If these bubbles pop, B.C. will be left in a strong position, with a public grid and surplus power. Together with First Nations, we could build on this advantage, creating energy independence, lower costs for families and decades of good jobs in the clean energy economy.

It all comes down to whether the regulators are willing to accept BC Hydro’s half-baked plan to hijack our public grid for highly speculative LNG and AI projects.

Before summer has even begun, much of B.C. is running dry.

Snowpack levels have collapsed to two per cent of normal in the Okanagan and zero on Vancouver Island. Rivers in these regions are flowing lower than ever for this time of year. And the forecast looks painfully short of the rain we need.

Representing local governments in these places, we know the stress this causes residents and local businesses. Yet our communities are being asked to manage growing water risks without the authority, resources or tools required to do so effectively. That must change.

B.C.’s economy is built on the assumption that clean, abundant water will always be available. That assumption no longer holds. Today, water insecurity is one of the most pressing challenges facing our province, with communities lurching from one water emergency to the next.

For a growing number of municipalities, running out of water is no longer hypothetical. Last fall, years of drought pushed Dawson Creek’s water supplies to critical levels, forcing the city to declare a state of emergency and pursue costly emergency measures.

The Sunshine Coast and the Village of McBride declared water emergencies in 2023 and 2024.

And last month, the Syilx Okanagan Nation declared a watershed emergency across the Okanagan and neighbouring watersheds.

We know these aren’t isolated incidents. Water insecurity is now a fact of life in communities across B.C. Yet provincial support hasn’t kept pace with the risks. Local governments are expected to approve housing, support economic growth, prepare for emergencies and safeguard drinking water, without the funding or governance tools required to manage water responsibly.

Too often, key decisions affecting water availability are made upstream while downstream communities deal with the consequences. This fragmented approach is costly and unsustainable.

Fortunately, there are promising examples that point to a different approach.

In the Koksilah and Nicola watersheds, First Nations, local governments, farmers and community groups are collaborating with the province on long-term approaches to drought and water management.

In the Okanagan, leaders from Syilx Nation communities, municipalities and regional districts have created a collaborative leadership table to strengthen water stewardship.

The District of Lake Country, Regional District of North Okanagan, and the Okanagan Indian Band have developed the North Aberdeen Plateau plan to protect critical drinking water sources.

These partnerships show that collaboration delivers practical solutions. But unlike other provinces, B.C. lacks a consistent provincial system and dedicated funding to support local watershed governance.

That gap has real economic costs. Communities can’t plan infrastructure, agriculture or industrial development without confidence in long-term water security. Stronger water governance is sound economic strategy.

There’s a practical path forward to strengthen watershed security, but it requires provincial leadership.

A report from the B.C. Watershed Security Coalition found that B.C. charges some of the lowest industrial water rates in Canada — just $2.25 per million litres. The Union of B.C. Municipalities has called on the province to modernize those rates and reinvest the revenue into local watershed solutions. Earlier this year, 46 local elected officials also wrote to Premier Eby urging long-term funding for watershed management and drought preparedness.

According to the coalition’s report, modernizing industrial water rates could generate an estimated $100 million annually to support local projects that build watershed security and strengthen water governance, helping communities get ahead of water scarcity rather than responding in crisis. The B.C. Watershed Security Fund provides a ready-made mechanism to deliver this investment where it’s needed most.

Local communities are ready to do this work. But we can’t continue managing 21st-century water risks with outdated management systems and unstable funding.

B.C. can continue reacting to water emergencies one season at a time or it can finally start governing our watersheds like the critical infrastructure they are.

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Vickey Brown is mayor of the Village of Cumberland and director at large at the Union of B.C. Municipalities. Tricia Brett is a city councillor of the District of Lake Country and co-chair of the Okanagan Collaborative Leadership Table.

Metro Vancouver enters Stage 3 water restrictions for the first time in more than a decade. Chair of the B.C. Watershed Security Coalition Coree Tull joins the program and we ask how B.C. can plan for future water shortages?