u/FootballImpossible88

It seems IBRX was not included in the Russell 1000.

This makes the Friday jump to $8.7 (now $8.5) a speculative jump with no underlying change.

It would be best if the new investors stay and look through the fundamentals and gain faith in the process, letting this be the new starting point where we can go up, but I think it's more likely that they drop their position as it was a jump 'for nothing', and the price could drop back down to around 6.

What do you think is going to happen?

From what I've read and heard, institutions like making money and don't like retail making money, and this is purely based on that premises.

So, if I remember correctly, SPCX is to get into the Nasdaq index, is that correct or fair is not the point of my analysis, which forces institutions, especially those who have index funds to purchase large quantities of SPCX stock, and them purchasing at a high price, it went over 200 for some time, is not desirable for them.

If the company was actually trash, I would expect to see mostly positive news, kissing the ass of Elon and SpaceX so the stock price remains high and they have retail exit liquidity to dump into.

But the current state shows mostly negative news with the stock price crashing, while the 'institutional holding' is not yet announced due to time issues, while a forced large accumulation due to index joining is on the horizon.

So just based on this schizo-conspiracy analysis, the price could fall to near pre ipo entry price of 130-140. not sure how it would go for under 135, as some big institutions have declared they bought pre ipo allocations, but that is my take of the current situation.

The baseline assumption is SpaceX is going to be a hot IPO as expected considering what people are saying.

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1. Retail competing with institutions for shares isn't likely to go well for retail, so if they didn't buy pre ipo allocations, this is one of the few ways to get exposure.

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2. As an active etf, and as SpaceX is a private company, they bought more of other company stocks with the inflow of funds. This decreased the exposure percentage of SpaceX.

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3. Currently, as SpaceX is a private company, the value of its stock is not calculated into the NAV yet, and will be added after IPO.

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4. This means there is going to be a sure increase in NAV/price on IPO.

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5. Even if SpaceX takes from its competitors, decreasing their share price, which could damage the NAV/price of NASA, NASA also holds companies that provides supplies for SpaceX and its competitors, which could wash out or at least buffer the damage.

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Overall, not sure if there will be a influx of funds into NASA, but as an etf that doesn't really impact the share price, unless NASA decides to increase their SpaceX exposure when people buy in.

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Whatever the case, there should be a price increase on IPO.

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Am I missing anything?