KCH123 recently took the #1 spot on the Polymarket leaderboard, so this is the right time to break down HOW he actually enters these markets. We posted the full report on him below, but I wanted to share the general strategy that he is using. One thing to keep in mind is that true reverse engineering will not be possible through his logs. I believe he has his own sports model and execution layer on top of it.

over 33 days KCH123 ran $743K in profit. This is about 16% ROI. 10.7K buys, zero sells, every position held to settlement. he's primarily focused on two sports over the past month. He does partake in NFL as well during the season.

• NBA $990K deployed, +$722K P/L, +72.9% ROI, 82.9% win rate across 1,676 bets
• NHL $3.48M deployed, +$20K P/L, +0.6% ROI (i thought this was interesting...so much more deployed, but so much less return)

HOW HE SCALES IN:

his scale in is clearly automated and runs in three distinct phases:

• probe. cheap, small fills at fair value while the event is still uncertain. his median fill is just $6.67.
• wait. he sits on the probe and lets the event develop. no chasing, no incremental adds.
• slam. once his read confirms, he loads in seconds. his max single fill is $190,452, and the top 5 fills make up 83.5% of all deployed capital. the median time between his fills is 2 seconds, and 86% of fills land within a minute of the previous one.

A WINNING EXAMPLE: SPREAD: NUGGETS (-11.5)

this is his single most profitable market in the dataset. 119 fills, $294k deployed, +$294k P/L. he literally doubled his money on one game.

When you look more granularly.. all 119 fills landed in a 192 minute window..which is roughly the pre-game and full game window for that NBA matchup. every single one of his 119 fills was at exactly $0.50 per share. he found a market that Polymarket was quoting at a coin-flip price for a spread he believed was significantly favored, and he just accumulated every available offer at $0.50 across three hours, scaling fill sizes from $10 probes early to a $933 final clip in the last minute before settle. total shares accumulated: roughly 589k. the Nuggets covered. every share paid $1.00. clean 100% return on the capital he committed to that market.

the lesson here: his single biggest win was not a 4th-quarter "buy at $0.95" slam. it was patient accumulation at what looked like a fair-value quote that he disagreed with.

A LOSING EXAMPLE: OILERS VS. DUCKS

same mechanic, wrong read. one NHL playoff game cost him $143K.

• pregame: small probe on the favored Oilers, plus a couple of cheap long-shot Ducks hedges
• early game, Oilers leading: slams one $38K fill at $0.81, bigger than his stake in most winning markets
• game turns: Oilers price collapses into the $0.50s; he doesn't sell, keeps buying the dip
• brief rebound: price bounces back to the $0.80s, he loads again on the way up
• final: Ducks win, $149K of Oilers shares settle at zero, net -$143K on the game

Sometimes the games just dont go the way they are predicted. With that being said, KCH123 is NOT changing his plan at all if that happens. he is not selling, or exiting positions if they go the wrong way. It's simply the cost of doing business.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

I think he's using his own sportsbetting model that has an automated polymarket execution layer that scales into what the betting model is suggesting. It also seems that he sticks with what the model says. Even when the game isn't going to plan, he doesn't sell, he holds the position. It is most likely more profitable to buy and hold and see it through than buy, and sell if it doesn't go your way in an attempt in limit losses. What would happen in those cases more often than not the original bet would win (just my thoughts)

If you're interested in building your own polymarket bot, or already working on one, Poly Research & Robotics discord -> https://discord.gg/BU9EjyqesV

Hey everyone, back with another trader report. After the Sharky6999 writeup last week, a bunch of you in the comments and DMs were asking if i could find a wallet that's actually copyable, since sharky is basically uncopyable unless you've got bare metal sitting in Dublin and six figures of working capital ready to deploy…this trader is kind of the opposite end of the spectrum. Way fewer trades, much narrower scope... but the strategy is something you could realistically replicate with a simple bot and a fractional bet sizing function built in.

Same disclaimer as always, since I keep getting comments about this. I'm only working off the public on-chain logs from these wallets, that's it. The strategy for any of these traders can be somewhat derived from the trade log, but their actual model, their position management rules, none of that is visible to me...i just try my best to use educated reverse engineering to derive that.

The wallet today is ExitLiquidty (0xeb6789ca6b1425ff908a69a2a5469c38532cd696), and honestly the name tells you almost everything lol, which i thought was really clever. The operator's entire game is buying discounted YES shares off panicking sellers in illiquid niche markets, then collecting when the fundamentals were right all along. They are LITERALLY being the exit liquidity for the bagholders getting shaken out, and this trader made $186k in 41 days doing it.

Numbers first, then we'll get into the strategy and how you could copy it.

STAT DUMP (41-day window, resolved trades only):

the strategy

This wallet trades two market types, and that's it. No sports, no politics, no crypto up/down, no election markets, nothing else. The entire book is:

1. Token launch FDV threshold markets, the "will X token's fully diluted valuation exceed $Y one day after launch?" markets
2. Public sale commitment markets, the "over $X committed to the (insert project name) sale?" markets

by the way FDV markets are similar to trading total market cap of a coin, but FDV stands for fully diluted value, so these markets are if ALL coins were in circulation, what would the value be.

The core mechanic on the FDV markets is what i'm calling a calibrated ladder. For the MegaETH launch, the operator built positions across multiple threshold levels at once, and sized heaviest on the ones they expected to clear. This is essentially the procesSpecifically:

The ladder structure is the entire point...winners dominate even when the stretch bets miss, because the stretch sizing is small and the entry prices on the high-conviction tiers are nowhere near $1.00. The $0.10 to $0.20 entry band alone returned 286% on capital deployed, that's basically the alpha concentrate of the wallet.

if you've seen the Elon tweets prediction markets, or the weather markets...theres a strategy that you can do where you basically cover multiple different outcomes that are in the ballpark of your prediction...and then manage your positions correctly as time goes on and you can not only win the final outcome, but ride the shares up in value and get out before the losing ones are clearly not going to be the final outcome. I'll do another report on this specifically because I think it's interesting and can be applied a lot of other places as well

One detail I want to flag because it's the kind of thing that's easy to miss looking at win rate alone... this operator does NOT hold everything to $1.00 settlement. They actively sell into the orderbook as prices rise, banking the markup before resolution wherever the book gives them room.thats why the sell/buy ratio comes out to around 1.37, and why total realized cash flow ($330K) runs almost 80% higher than the resolved-buy P/L figure ($186K).

This strategy is actually copyable The edge here is not infrastructure (of course it plays a part but it's more domain research. You don't need bare metal, you don't need a private Polygon RPC, you don't need six figures of working capital to make this work. What you need is a tokenomics model and the discipline to skip every single market that doesn't fit your niche.

Rough framework if you want to actually try copy-trading this style:

1. find upcoming token launches that already have Polymarket FDV markets attached to them. The MegaETH ones were posted weeks before the actual launch, you had plenty of lead time
2. Build a tokenomics model for the launch... supply schedule, valuation comps from recent comparable launches, sentiment, expected unlock cliffs, anything else relevant... and use that to estimate expected launch-day FDV. Claude can do a lot of the heavy lifting here.
3. Skip the stretch thresholds that are above your expected range, OR take tiny positions on them for asymmetric upside, but do not size into the stretches like you size into the base case

The public sale play is way simpler tbh. Track real-time commitment totals on the project's actual sale contract, buy NO on any threshold that the current commitment cannot mathematically reach by the deadline, then sell at $0.99 as settlement gets close. It's a boring trade, but it's a really reliable one when the math is on your side and the rest of the market is still pricing in some kind of emotional probability that the threshold "could" be hit.

none of this is to say it will be easy, but you can absolutely replicate exitliquidty's strateg if you're willing to do the tokenomics research and stay disciplined about scope. The edge is in the niche and the discipline, not in any tech that costs five figures a month. You may also be able to do a simplifed version that will reward less % gains but still remain profitable. I'd suggest using Exit's wallet as a north star of sorts...subscribe to his wallet feed via the polymarket rtds client and maybe implement a check to see if he's already buying the same markets that your model is.

If you liked this report and want to join a community of prediction market bot builders & developers...then Join a 100% free community dedicated to sharing insights, resources and tools:

Poly Research & Robotics
https://discord.gg/uG4cXW6mM

Full 6-page report (every market breakdown, weekly P/L curve, the full trade ladder, sell tranche analysis, all of it) is posted within the discord and on the PR&R website.

And as always, let me know who you want me to dig into next, I have a few more report ideas coming soon comparing Kalshi odds to Polymarket for overlapping markets, as well February / March/ April data set I'm combing through to find interesting data correlations that could be helpful for building a strategy around. Thanks to everyone who has been supporting these posts!

Hey everyone, I just published a full beginner tutorial on building a Polymarket trading bot..and it's 100% free. I'm not selling anything.

Upfront disclaimer: this is not a profitable bot out of the box. don't expect to clone it, run it, and print money. what it is is a solid step-by-step foundation (the wallet setup, the API plumbing, the order management, the risk controls, the execution loop) that you can build your own custom strategy on top of. the signal engine in the guide is intentionally simple so you understand the shape of one. the real edge is whatever you bring to it.

I wrote it because there's just not enough quality information out there on this topic. you can either find sketchy GitHub repos with no docs and no idea what they're actually doing, or people selling bots with zero proof or verification that they work. nothing in the middle that just walks you through how to build one yourself and understand every piece. that's the gap I'm trying to fill.

What you'll actually build in this tutorial

an automated bot that trades the BTC Up/Down 15M market. every 15 minutes it wakes up, looks at where BTC has been moving, decides if it wants to bet UP or DOWN, places an order, and waits for the next cycle. simple loop, real money (eventually), real feedback.

I picked this market because it's a great teacher. fast cycles mean you see your bot's behavior in minutes instead of days. it's binary, so the logic stays clean. and the stakes per cycle are small enough that the learning experience doesn't have to be expensive.

once you've built it for BTC 15M, the same patterns transfer to any other time frame if you want to stick to crypto up/down markets or maybe try something different like sports, or weather.

What makes this approachable now

a few years ago, building this would've been a longgg project. you'd need trading infrastructure experience and a lot of patience reading API docs that assumed you already knew everything.

Today, that's changed:

• AI coding agents do the heavy lifting. claude code, codex allow you to paste in what you're trying to do, get working code back. the guide is built around this. every step has a "walk me through this" prompt you copy into your agent of choice. you're not coding alone. HOWEVER, this doesn't mean you should blindly just copy and paste and not think about what you're doing...that is a recipe to fail. You should pay attention, use these tools for what they offer and ask questions!
• the Polymarket Python SDK is actually good. it handles the auth, the order signing, the order book queries. you call functions, you get data back.

How the guide is structured

It's an 8-step guide with copy-pasteable agentic prompts for each section.

• set up your wallet and dev environment. funding pUSD, generating API keys, scaffolding the project.
• connect to Polymarket and pull live data. first authenticated call, fetching the current market, reading the order book.
• build the signal engine. the part that decides UP or DOWN. starts simple on purpose so you understand the structure before you make it fancy.
• place and manage orders. submitting, polling for fills, cancelling cleanly.
• add risk controls. position sizing, exposure caps, a daily loss circuit breaker. boring to build, glad to have.
• automate the loop. scheduling, logging, running it unattended.
• paper trade, then go live. simulated fills first so you can validate everything without spending a dollar. when you do go live, you start with $2 trades. seriously.

A note on going live

Paper trading mode is in the guide for a reason. flip a setting and the bot runs the full loop but simulates fills instead of placing real orders. let it run for a few hours, look at the logged PnL, and you'll know whether your signal is doing anything before you commit real money. it's the best feedback loop in the whole tutorial.

When you do go live, the guide recommends starting with $2 max trades and a 3% daily loss limit. day one isn't about making money. it's about confirming the plumbing works in production. once you've seen it work with real (tiny) money, scaling up is the easy part.

Who this is for

• beginners and anyone who wants to build their first Polymarket bot. no prior bot experience required, just a little Python and the willingness to work through it.
• you've heard "Polymarket bot" thrown around and want to see what's under the hood without taking on a huge learning curve.

If this sounds like something you're interested in trying out, I'll drop the link in my profile. It's 100% free! I don't want to get flagged or banned for promotion unless a mod says I can post the link directly in the comments.

I'm happy to answer any questions in the comments, hope this helps some of you!

Hey everyone, I’m back with another one. Last weeks slip-me writeup got way more traction than i expected and a few people in the comments + DMs were asking for someone trading sports too, not just BTC up/down. One thing I do want to say is I am doing all of these reports off the one data point that I have.... which is the public on-chain logs from these traders. There will always be things such as strategy, or bot configuration that differs from what the logs show...that is just something you should keep in mind and I wanted to say.

Sharky6999 is one of the most talked about wallets on Polymarket, I think I saw posts about Sharky before I even got into building bots or trading on PM. One thing to keep in mind, and quite honestly I was little worried about doing this report because unlike some of the other traders I’ve analyzed, the strategy here is primarily his infrastructure. Sharky6999 mainly bets insanely large amounts of money on favorites right before expiration, with close to a second left. One of the reasons he’s as popular as he is, is because it’s so appealing to new users (like myself when I started my polymarket journey) to see this, and think “oh it’s that simple?” but then you try for yourself and are QUICKLY humbled.  

Quick rundown on the numbers. This is the recap of 31 days of trade logs (and yes i used AI to go through the 90 freaking thousand trades in the 31 days of logs i pulled, so you all can keep quiet with the "omg you uSeD Ai tO wRitE this!!!" those comments are so annoying lol):

• 90,086 total trades (80,781 buys, 9,305 sells)
• 2,906 trades per active day
• $21.26M in gross turnover, roughly $670k cycled per day
• Median fill size: $0.74 | p99: $3,302 | largest single fill: $431,970
• Average entry price: $0.95+ (54,297 of his fills sit in the $0.90–$1.00 band, basically the whole wallet)
• Net P/L: +$59,615 on $20.74M deployed
• ROI: +0.29%
• Win rate: 98.9%
• Rolling 7-day windows green: 31 of 31
• Rolling 15-day windows green: 31 of 31

THE STRATEGY:

The core mechanic is straightforward. Sharky buys heavy favorites and holds them to settlement. He is not market making, only 1% of his markets show both sides bought, and he is not penny scalping. His pattern is to scan the orderbook for outcomes priced between $0.90 and $0.99 that carry a high probability of resolving at $1.00, then size into them aggressively. The trade offers roughly four cents of upside per share, less the occasional loss and platform fees. The economics only work under two conditions: a near-perfect hit rate, and the ability to deploy meaningful capital per fill. Sharky satisfies both.

The most notable structural finding is the diversification across his book. Crypto accounts for 34% of deployed capital, but the sports verticals are where the consistency stands out. Every sports category in the 31 day window cleared a 100% win rate:

• Soccer: $4.95M deployed, 100% WR
• Tennis: $2.01M deployed, 100% WR
• MLB: $1.61M, 100% WR
• NBA: $1.42M, 100% WR
• NHL: $495k, 100% WR (his best ROI category at 0.6%)
• NFL, CBB, UFC: all 100% WR

He is only touching games where one side is already priced as a foregone conclusion, then sizing into them.

WHY YOU CANNOT COPY HIM / HIS INFRA:

This is the part that matters. The edge is infrastructure and that is what makes him uncopiable. the public discourse has been converging on this hypothesis for a while now and I agree with it.

Key data points pointing to bare metal / private RPC:

• His fill timing. His median gap between consecutive fills in the same market is 0 seconds, and 89.4% of paired fills land within ten seconds of each other. In plain terms, his bot is reacting to orderbook changes and submitting orders faster than anything you can run from home internet or a standard cloud VPS.
• server location. Polymarket's matching engine runs on AWS in London (eu-west-2). To compete on speed, the bot has to sit physically close to that data center, typically Dublin or London, where round-trip latency drops to under a millisecond. Anywhere else and you are losing the race before it starts.
• RPC throughput. Every Polymarket trade settles on Polygon, which requires an RPC node to send transactions. Public RPCs cap requests, throw 429 errors, and run inconsistent latency under load. At 90k trades a month with single fills up to $431k, one failed signature at the wrong moment costs more than his entire monthly P/L. He is almost certainly running a dedicated or self-hosted node.
• Order signing. Every Polymarket order has to be cryptographically signed before it can be submitted. At nearly 3,000 trades per day, signing one order at a time is not viable. He is likely using pre-signed batches or a local signing service running on the same machine as the bot.

The working theory across the bot research community right now is bare metal in dublin or london, dedicated polygon RPC node...this is not cheap (chainstack dedicated or self hosted), websocket subscriptions to every active market, pre-signed order batching, maker rebate harvesting where he can sit on the book.

Bottom line: this is the first wallet I've covered where replication isn't really on the table. Matching his setup means matching his infrastructure spend AND bringing six figures of working capital, and even then you're racing him directly from a disadvantaged starting position.

The more useful takeaway is what Sharky signals about the broader space. There is now a clear top tier of operators running HFT-grade infrastructure on a platform that, until recently, was mostly retail and weekend Python scripts. That gap is going to keep widening.

If you are interested in the full 6-page report on Sharky, I posted it on my site (link in profile, also pinned in my discord which is linked in my profile).

Drop your suggestions for the next report below! I'll keep knocking these out for the subreddit. Thanks everyone

Hey everyone, I wanted to come back on here and first off say THANK YOU for the response to the LIL222 post last week was honestly nuts. did not expect it to blow up the way it did at all. A ton of really good questions in the comments, a lot of people joined my bot building discord serv, and i got a bunch of DMs, and a few of you even sent over your own wallet analyses which I am still slowly working through. just genuinely want to say thanks for the support. It is super cool seeing this many people actually interested in the data behind some of these polymarket bots and a lot of you brought up angles I had not even thought about yet. made me want to keep digging on these.

By popular demand, I'm here with another report of Slip-Me (0x476639d9845d7a0261cb005dae6473f089ff5a03) who was requested by u/FossilBlade on my last post.

Quick rundown on who slip-me is. He is a bot running on polymarket trading only the 5M Bitcoin Up or Down market, Around 8,500 trades per active day, every single one a buy, never sells a share. Just over 188k BUYs across 23 days (just the window of logs i pulled) with zero exits. From the orderbook side it looks like a textbook passive market maker quoting both Yes and No on every market he touches. THAT IS THE DISGUISE.

THE STRATEGY:

The actual strategy is reactive directional trading. He opens both legs of every 5m market within the first few seconds, then watches the BTC tape for 3-4 minutes and loads more shares onto whichever side is winning. By the close his position is usually 2x to 5x heavier on the eventual winner. Then he holds every share to expiry and the resolution oracle pays him out. No model or predictive indicators, just reacting to what BTC is doing in real time.

Net for the month: +$111k on 4.3 million in deployed capital. ~2.6% percent ROI, 22 of 23 days green, only one losing day in the entire dataset...again the date range is just the logs I pulled. you can pull longer logs by using the Agent i built into my discord server if you're interested.

What I found interesting:

The fun part is that the spread leg of his book actually loses money. His average paired cost is around $1.02, so every time he gets both legs filled he is already underwater by 2 cents per pair. That spread leg bleeds about 97k for the month. The directional leg pays him +$204K which more than covers it. So anyone trying to copy his quotes thinking he was a clean market maker would be copying the part that bleeds. The real edge is in the late-window loads on the dominant side, where his win rates are where the gold lies...if you were going to attempt to copytrade him, you would want to filter to just these markets (5x or heavier skew = 99.8 percent dominant-side win rate, 1 loss out of 520 markets at that level).

A few people on the last post were asking what kind of infrastructure these bots are actually running on, so here is my best guess at his stack, KEY WORD BEST GUESS:

• Binance WebSocket for the BTC websocket feed. deepest liquidity, lowest latency, the de facto reference for crypto market makers
• Chainlink BTC/USD oracle for resolution truth. Polymarket's 5M BTC markets settle on chainlink at the close
• Polygon RPC through Alchemy or QuickNode. public RPCs would rate-limit him to death at this throughput. Order signing happens inside the bot itself (or pre-signed in batches, lots of bots do this) so the RPC is mostly just for state reads and reconciliation
• On a VPS likely AWS (ec2 instance possibly) or Hetzner in Amsterdam or Ireland to sit close to the polymarket CLOB (which sits in london).

If you were going to try to build a bot like this, hooking up the infrastructure is honestly the easy part (comparatively). The hard part is the algorithm. you need to keep both legs balanced as the BTC price and orderbook move, estimate fair value BEFORE entering (SLIP-ME's $1.02 paired cost is barely above true fair...most homemade bots land at $1.05 or worse which is the line between making money and losing it), and make the right call in the last 90 seconds on when to go directional on the dominant side vs when to back off because BTC just reversed. On top of that, at 8,500+ trades a day across 140 markets you are processing a TON of data events all firing in parallel, and the bot has to not silently drift or break at 3am. Especially when balancing two sides of a market, if your bot lags for even a few seconds you could potentially become lopsided and lose your chance to maintain that arb and get stuck needed to buy a lot more to lower your VWAP on one side or the other to match. And do NOT add take-profit logic, the whole thing depends on hold-to-expiry settlement and the economics break the moment you start selling shares mid-window.

Hope you guys enjoyed this. Again, these are all my hypotheses, and outlook. I could very well be wrong on some points, and like many parts of development, there are a bunch of different ways to do the same task, so he could very well have an entirely different set up than my guesses. The data points come from a source of truth which are his logs that I pulled using my discord agent that retrieves all wallets logs directly from Polymarket. If you want to read the full report, feel free to check out the full 6 page report in the link in my profile (it's linked in the Poly Research & Robotics free discord).

Drop your suggestions for the next report below! 👇

Been digging through Polymarket wallets for a while and stumbled on this wallet pretty much only buying at $0.01

Over the last 25 days this wallet placed about 34,000 trades. Win rate was 1.4 percent. So basically every bet he makes loses, and he still ended up around 56 percent on his deployed capital for the month.

Here is what he actually does....he only trades the 5M Bitcoin Up or Down market on polymarket. He looks at the order book and finds whichever side is sitting at $0.01, which is the lowest price polymarket lets you trade at. He buys a tiny amount, usually 5 or 10 bucks worth. Then immediately posts a sell order at $0.02 on those exact shares. If someone lifts the ask before the market closes, he doubled his money on that share. If nobody lifts it, the share rides to settlement, and roughly 1 in 100 times he actually wins and gets paid $1.00 on something that cost him a penny.

that is it lol

He runs it nonstop. Roughly 21,000 buy fills in 25 days, every single one at exactly $0.01. Around 12,000 sells, almost all of them at exactly $0.02. Median trade size 13 cents. Largest single trade in the entire month was 151 dollars.

The reason it works is actually kind of beautiful. Most of his bets lose at zero, which is why his win rate looks like complete trash. But two things keep him profitable. About half the time he flips the share at $0.02 before the market closes, which is a clean 100 percent return on that share without him ever needing to be right about Bitcoin. The other half goes to settlement, and even though he only wins 1.4 percent of the time, paying $1.00 on something that cost a cent is roughly a 99x payoff. So even at terrible accuracy, the expected value still drifts upward.

He does not care which direction Bitcoin moves. He is not predicting anything at all. He is just harvesting the gap between the absolute floor of the order book and one cent above it, on markets that resolve every 5 minutes, around the clock.

24 out of 25 rolling weekly windows green. Worst single day was negative 76 bucks. The cumulative P/L curve is almost a perfect straight line up for the whole month. Probably the most boring chart in the entire dataset.

figured you guys would find this interesting as well. I did a full report on this guy which I'll leave in the comments if anyone is interested. I also included a playbook breaking down how the bot would look if you tried making a similar bot trading this strategy.

I built a live wallet monitor for Polymarket's Up/Down markets

I've been building bots for polymarket's up/down markets and a huge part of bot development (for me at least) comes down to trader analysis on successful other bots i find. The problem is Polymarket's front end doesn't really give you the tools for that. you can see trades after the fact in a table, but you can't easily watch a wallet operate in real time against actual crypto price action, which is where most of the useful signal lives. so i built something to fix that for myself, and figured i'd share it.

What you can view:

the tool fuses Binance spot, Binance futures, and Chainlink oracle prices into a single synchronized chart, then overlays any wallet's buys and sells on top of it. Trades show up within about a second of hitting the chain. no API keys, no permissions, just plug in a wallet address and watch.

next to the chart sits a live 10-level orderbook for both UP and DOWN shares, so you can read book pressure and crypto momentum side by side instead of jumping between five tabs.

Why watch visually instead of using logs?

Reading a trade history table tells you what happened, but it doesn't tell you how someone trades. when you watch a wallet operate live against price action, you start picking up things like:

• when a trader enters relative to price action, not just what they bought
• the min and max share prices they're willing to buy and sell at on UP and DOWN
• whether they enter early, mid-cycle, or only near resolution
• how their entries line up with spot, futures, and oracle movement
• how the orderbook reacts the moment a tracked trader places size
• when they cut losers vs take profit
• whether a trade is a sized conviction entry or just a small probe
• repeated setups the same wallet uses cycle after cycle

you can't really see any of that from the front end of polymarket. it only becomes obvious once you're watching it unfold in real time.

Logging functionality(local only)

if you clone the repo and run it locally, you also get the cycle logger, which auto-saves every 5-minute round to CSV. full orderbook snapshots, per-second price feeds, and tracked wallet trade timing all get dumped to disk. the point is to build up a dataset you can actually study offline, since pattern recognition gets a lot easier when you have hundreds of rounds to look back through. this feature is only available when running locally since it needs file system access to write the CSVs.

Binance -> Chainlink Latency

one thing that surprised me while building this: you can clearly see the latency between Binance spot/futures and the Chainlink oracle on the chart. if you've ever wondered why a market behaves a certain way right before resolution, watching the oracle lag behind the live feed makes a lot of it click.

let me know what you think! I shared the github and web version in my discord but I don't want to post the links here and break subreddit rules.

thanks for reading!

hey everyone, i wanted to share a deep dive on a Polymarket wallet (handle: GAMBLINGISALLYOURNEED) and figured I'd share a few of the more interesting things I found. 22 day window, 344K trades, $24M deployed, ended up being up +$101K

1. He actually sells out of losing trades one iof the things I found interesting is when I've looked at other big Polymarket bots, most of them just buy and hold every position to resolution no matter what, it's just part of their strategy...but GamblingIsAllYouNeed is different. Almost 1 in 5 of his trades is a SELL, he's actively exiting losing position's instead of letting them sit. That alone makes him stand out

2. The real edge is hidden under his hedging He only made about +$101K on $24M, basically flat. But if you only count the trades where his model is clearly leaning one way, those alone closed at +$651K. The hedging leg is dragging the rest of the book down by something like $8M. The directional bets are where his actual alpha is

3. he picks his spots, sometimes badly Soccer, MLB, and NFL are all clean wins for him. NBA and Tennis are bleeding money (NBA alone is -$118K) that makes two of us down on nba better lmao. The wildest one: a single hour of the day (1 PM UTC) cost him almost $300K. Probably the IPL cricket evening window in India where the book is thin and he's getting picked off.

4. His sizing pattern is super telling most of his trades are tiny ($5 to $10 each) which i think is just a result of partly scaling in but also making sure his orders fill on markets with varying liquidity, but a small handful are huge (up to $28K). every market opens with a small probe before he scales up, looks like he's testing the book before commiting real size. Classic algo signature

5. He's running 24/7 at full speed He was active every single day of the 22 day window, no off hours, averaging around 15K trades per day. Median gap between fills on the same market is 4 seconds, which is way faster than any human could click. He also touched over 10,500 distinct markets in 22 days (~480 a day), so he's clearly running an auto discovery scanner on the full market list, not a hand picked watchlist

I shared the full report here if anyone wanted to look further into it. I'm not selling anything just sharing the research I'm doing. If anyone has other traders they would like analyzed feel free to let me know in the comments or DM and i'm happy to run them through the pipeline i used for this

https://polyresearchrobotics.vercel.app/reports/gamblingisallyourneed

Hey everyone, I wanted to share a free tool I just integrated into the discord I’m building for polymarket bot builders, devs and traders. I’ve been building bots on polymarket for the past 6 months and I felt like there weren’t that many centralized communities of people actually building their own strategies, bots and applications. A lot of what I see on reddit and X are just people either spamming kreo and copytrading bots (these don’t work for most leaderboard traders) that prey on beginners with a ‘get rich quick’ approach, BUT ONLY AFTER YOU SIGN UP WITH THEIR REFERRAL LINK!!! It’s just a whole lot of nonsense so I just recently started my own community on discord. It’s called Poly Research & Robotics and it’s open everyone who’s genuinely interested in prediction markets and trading bots, and 100% free.

Today I launched the first built in feature to the server, PR&R Agent. It is an integrated agent that lives completely within the Discord with tools built into it, right now I only have a /ask function and trader log downloads integrated but I’m planning on adding many more features soon.

I know downloading trade logs isnt exactly a mind blowing feature, but it is fast and helpful, so i figured i would share it. basically you can download the trade history of other wallets to study them and look for patterns you might not see just by looking at a profile page.

what you can learn from a downloaded log:

• what markets they actually trade and which ones they avoid
• wether they make directional bets, hedging, or market-making
• their entry points and how early they move on news
• bet sizing discipline (if they are consistant or erratic)

how it works: you hit a button in the server, put in a wallet address and a date range (up to 7 days). it sends you a csv file in our data-and-intel channel. you can pick maker fills, taker fills, or both.

this is just the first ability for the PR&R Agent, and there are more features coming to assist with research and analysis, and bot debugging on the way. if you have any suggestions, i would genuinely love to hear them.

let me know if you want an invite and ill send it over! (The discord link is also in my profile) i just didnt want to spam the link directly in the post.

disclaimer, i'm not selling or promoting this application, just sharing and happy to help anyone who wants to build something similar

I've been building tools to study how the top polymarket traders operate, and while pulling trade logs after the fact was useful, I figured it would be a lot more helpful to visually watch their trades plot on a graph in real time so I could understand the frequency and patterns of their entries against what the price was actually doing. it's actually super helpful to see the latency between websockets as well, that was a suprise on my end when i first viewed binance vs chainlink data streams

So I built an app that does exactly that.. it's purpose-built for Polymarket's BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP up-down cycle markets.

basically it stitches together every price feed that matters into one live chart and overlays wallet trades on top as they hit the chain. when a tracked wallet is toggled on, every trade they make during a cycle gets plotted directly on the chart as a marker... color-coded by buy/sell and outcome with price and size in a hover tooltip. trades show up within a second of hitting the book. you can literally watch a trader position themselves against the underlying in real time.

all the data sources are live websockets:

• binance spot + futures for tick-by-tick price on the underlying
• chainlink for the on-chain oracle price (what polymarket actually resolves against for BTC)
• polymarket CLOB websocket for the full order book and trades on UP/DOWN shares
• polymarket gamma API for cycle discovery
• predexon websocket for streaming wallet trades with sub-second latency

the chart overlays four price streams on one synchronized time axis... binance spot, futures, chainlink, and polymarket UP/DOWN share prices. the x-axis is the live cycle (0:00 to 5:00 or 15:00) and there's a draggable range stepper that zooms the BTC axis so you can read action near the strike at whatever precision you want.

it also has a cycle logger that writes everything to local CSVs. order books, prices, and per-wallet trade activity all broken out by cycle. point it at any folder and it'll just churn CSVs forever. this is the dataset i'm using to feed all my backtesting and signal work downstream.

you can track up to 10 wallets at once across 5-minute and 15-minute cycles. if anyone else is doing research on polymarket cycle markets this might be useful for you too, happy to answer questions about the setup.