u/Friendly-Log-7708

Interesting if they get capital for the warrants with a floor of $2.50. The investor already owns a lot of stock in this company.

On Aug 11, 2026, XCF Global (SAFX) announced initial sales of renewable diesel to Tartan Oil LLC. Tartan is a wholly owned subsidiary of Pilot Travel Centers LLC, the largest travel center operator in North America and a Berkshire Hathaway company. Based on current production, logistics, diesel prices and incentives shaping the market today, XCF believes these sales to Tartan could range from $12,860,000 to $13,860,000 in revenue per month. These estimates relate only to the announced Tartan sales and do not reflect XCF’s total expected company revenue. The estimate is based on assumptions that these sales will continue at the current volume and subject to current market conditions.

Doing a little homework in the space. The renewable diesel market is a $8 to $9 business now which was much lower before. The SAF business is even higher! Pure play public SAF companies are getting a 30x plus multiple, at least that's what a couple of AI engines say. In Singapore the comparable I listed the other day is 86! After doing further digging they seem like a smaller outfit compared to SAFX. When reading their S-4 filing and when applying the math even with the merger presuming its all dilution worst case I am coming out with a $4 to $6 stock on the low end and $40 or more if they pull off their monster project in Louisiana. Why is this stock so widely disconnected in price compared to their competitors no idea.

The war seems to continue with no true end in sight. I just put renewable diesel in my truck the other day at the pump in California over $6.30 per gallon! The tax credit market gives them another $3 to $4 bucks. These are insane numbers. The company already announced their plant in Nevada started. It seems they would announce revenue any day now unless they are just storing all their production. Its most logical for a Reno Nevada refiner to just truck the gas over the border into California. I went to the owner of my local gas station the other day and asked them how they get their gas and he said he uses a local provider that picks up their gas over the border as apparently Nevada has no State Tax and California does.

I don't know but I'm betting heavy on this. It seems at some point the math is going to catch up to the stock price. Well at least I sure hope so! lol Maybe this stock is just down because of market makers and algo trading. It doesn't add up. It makes sense to me why the stock would have fallen off a cliff when it opened last year since they are just now producing a year later. I also wonder how in the hell they opened at $45 per share as most SPACs are priced at $10 per share.

$SAFX Interesting player in the SAF space in the Singapore Market
PE 86 Oiltek International Limited (HQU.SI)