Asking publicly here, in hopes of an answer from an admin.
Are rumours allowed to be shared?
I’ve heard some serious rumours from a few of the construction workers. Am I allowed to share that info in here?
Got my bags loaded up, how about you guys?
I genuinely think the market is severely underpricing the asymmetric upside in $SAFX relative to where the Sustainable Aviation Fuel industry is heading over the next decade.
This isn’t another generic “green energy” ticker with no addressable market. SAF is rapidly becoming a regulatory and operational necessity for global aviation.
The key point most people miss:
aviation is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize.
Unlike passenger vehicles, there is currently no scalable battery-electric solution for long-haul commercial aviation. Hydrogen infrastructure is decades away from broad implementation. That leaves SAF as the only commercially deployable pathway capable of materially reducing lifecycle emissions using existing aircraft fleets and airport infrastructure.
That’s why airlines, governments, and energy players are aggressively moving toward SAF adoption.
The global SAF market is projected to compound massively before 2030 due to:
CORSIA emissions compliance requirements
EU ReFuelEU Aviation mandates
U.S. IRA tax incentives (45Z)
Net-zero commitments from major airlines
Corporate ESG pressure on aviation operators
Now compare that macro backdrop to SAFX’s valuation.
What stands out to me technically/fundamentally:
• SAFX is positioning itself as an integrated SAF production platform rather than just a development-stage story.
• The Reno/New Rise facility gives them actual production infrastructure exposure, which materially differentiates them from purely conceptual SAF companies.
• Expansion plans indicate management is targeting scalable production economics rather than remaining niche capacity.
• Their strategy around multiple SAF pathways (HEFA, biomass-to-liquid, potential eSAF exposure) is important because feedstock diversification is likely to become a major competitive advantage in this industry.
• Capital raises and financing activity suggest management is focused on accelerating production scaling while the regulatory tailwinds are strengthening.
People also underestimate how constrained SAF supply currently is.
Demand projections from airlines are exponentially outpacing global production capacity. That imbalance is exactly what could drive long-term pricing power for producers that successfully scale early.
Another major factor:
traditional refiners and energy infrastructure companies are increasingly entering the SAF ecosystem because they recognize aviation fuel decarbonization is likely inevitable. If SAFX can successfully execute and expand capacity, the company becomes strategically more valuable in an industry where future consolidation is highly possible.
Catalysts I’m watching closely:
Reno facility expansion milestones
Increased annualized SAF production guidance
Additional financing or strategic partnerships
Offtake agreements with airlines or fuel distributors
Regulatory acceleration around SAF blending mandates
Potential rerating if institutional money rotates back into clean-energy infrastructure plays
Broader recognition of SAF supply shortages versus projected demand curves
The market is pricing many small-cap SAF names like the sector itself may fail, while the underlying industry data increasingly suggests the opposite: SAF adoption is probably unavoidable for commercial aviation over the long term.
If SAFX executes operationally and survives the scaling phase, I think people will look back at these valuation levels very differently.
Not financial advice just sharing my thesis after researching the sector pretty heavily.
XCF Global CEO Chris Cooper to Spotlight Revitalizing Louisiana and U.S. Forestry Infrastructure and Advancing Next -Generation Fuels Including Bio-Methanol at the Louisiana Energy Conference
05/19/2026
Cooper will discuss how renewable and next generation fuels can support domestic energy security, and opportunities to repurpose underutilized industrial infrastructure
HOUSTON, TX / ACCESS Newswire / May 19, 2026 / XCF Global, Inc. ("XCF") (Nasdaq:SAFX), a U.S.-based producer of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel ("SAF") focused on decarbonizing transportation while supporting domestic fuel supply and energy security, today announced that Chief Executive Officer Chris Cooper will participate as a panelist at an upcoming Louisiana Energy Conference ("LEC") industry event.
Mr. Cooper is scheduled to speak on Thursday, May 28, during LEC's Future Energy programming, where he will join industry leaders to discuss developments shaping the future of energy and economic development in Louisiana. He will share insights into the growing role of renewable fuels and its role in strengthening domestic energy supply and advancing next generation fuel solutions such as bio-methanol derived from timber waste
The discussion will include the opportunity to revitalize legacy forestry and industrial infrastructure across the Gulf Coast, including bringing underutilized sawmill capacity back online to support the production of low-carbon fuels derived from forestry residues and other sustainable feedstocks.
"The energy transition presents a clear opportunity to align economic development with long-term demand for lower-carbon fuels" said Chris Cooper, Chief Executive Officer of XCF Global. "Events like this bring together important perspectives from across the industry, and we look forward to sharing our approach as we prepare for the next phase of growth."
The Louisiana Energy Conference brings together executives, investors, policymakers, and other industry participants for presentations, panel discussions, and one-on-one meetings focused on domestic and international oil, natural gas, renewable, and clean energy developments.
XCF Global is advancing its renewable fuels platform through its New Rise Renewables facility in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to resume production in June 2026 following ongoing upgrades.
If I'm correct, this Thursday, May 21, Southern should attend the meeting with Louisiana State Bond Commission, where they will decide the fate of Southern's revenue bond financing of $402M through LCDA. I'm pretty certain they will attend said date, as it aligns with the timeline. If not, the next meeting is June 18. A final decision should be made during that meeting, which means we should get a press release the same day, friday, or maybe even the week after.
As many of you know, this is a crucial step in the three-way merger, as it's in their BCA. If not met, that could mean no merger. Now, I don't like predicting the stock price, but I assume this would be a huge deal for the sentiment of SAFX and the merger as a whole. Followed by the delivery of the catalysts from Axens, along with the completion of New Rise Reno and start of production - we could be in for a ride.
As always, this DD is my own, and I could be wrong. DYOR just to be sure, and let me know if you have any objections.