A lot of big stories for the SAF industry coming out of Australia this morning! Yet another great example of SAFX strategic positioning in the global SAF market. Hoping to hear some updates on the New Rise projects there in the near future! Here are the stories.

Australian startup receives $2M in grant funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for renewable fuel pland upgrades, backed by Qantas & Airbus.

https://www.startupdaily.net/topic/funding/qantas-backs-2-million-raise-for-brisbane-startup-using-household-waste-make-aviation-fuel/

Brisbane airport completes SAF project, extablishing an end-to-end SAF supply chain that enables blended sustainable aviation fuel to be received, stored, blended, certified and transported through Brisbane Airport’s existing fuel pipeline system.

https://constructionreviewonline.com/brisbane-airport-saf-project-launched-by-viva-energy-in-major-australian-aviation-milestone/

The Australian Airports Association (AAA) is urging the Federal Government to accelerate the development of a domestic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, arguing it is critical to Australia’s aviation decarbonisation, fuel security and long-term economic resilience.

https://travelweekly.com.au/airports-push-canberra-to-fast-track-domestic-sustainable-aviation-fuel-industry/

Since a major part of the investment thesis for SAFX is the projected acceleration of the SAF industry, I figure it'd be good to share some daily news highlighting the massive amount of global investment going into it. Here's todays top stories!

Deutsche Bank teams up with Lufthansa to invest in the production of 1,600 metric tonnes SAF

https://www.rustourismnews.com/2026/07/02/deutsche-bank-invests-in-sustainable-aviation-fuel-with-lufthansa-group/

Axens acquires new Methanol-to-Jet tech portfolio

https://www.indexbox.io/blog/axens-acquires-air-liquides-methanol-to-olefins-technology-portfolio/

FatHopes and MotionEco forge alliance to secure 200,000 metric tonnes of used cooking oils annualy for the production of SAF

https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/fathopes-energy-and-motioneco-forge-major-uco-supply-pact-43103

So this morning the public float has dropped again to 33.5M per IBKR.

Short interest is also at 10.8M shares with a borrow rate hovering around 80%-90%. That puts us at about 30% short interest with the highest borrow rate I've seen this year.

Days to cover is also on the rise, last reported value sitting at above 2 compared to an average of about 1.15 for the past year or so.

I didn't have this expectation at all, but with the free float seemingly evaporating and borrow cost/time to cover rising, the metrics are starting to reach short squeeze territory.

Is anyone else seeing these same metrics in their broker or is IBKR pulling my leg?

Seeing some new names in here and on discord. As SAFX brings the New Rise Reno plant online and we get more analyst coverage I expect we'll see more, so I'd like to share some DD on the current 1-2 year horizon as we head into catalyst season.

Expect volatility, and keep in mind both the company and market growth potential over the next decade when thinking of an exit strategy.

If there are any recent developments, corrections, additions, or key points I'm missing here please let me know. I haven't updated my DD document in a couple weeks and it is admittedly a bit of a raw brain dump.

None of this should be considered financial advice of course, and please DYOR because I'm just some person on the internet. I won't add a TLDR because I believe you should take time to understand a company before you trust it with your money.

Nasdaq Compliance Extension

The 180 day extension for SAFX to regain compliance on the NASDAQ was all but guaranteed, but since it was confirmed (June 9, 2027) the question is if the company will be able to regain compliance before the end of the year. Just for posterity, here is a look at what the extension requirements were, compared to SAFX metrics:

• Stockholders’ Equity: $10M -> $25.31M
• Market Value of Listed Securities: $50M - $192.88M
• Total Assets and Total Revenue: $5M - ~$423 million
• Market Value of Publicly Held Shares: $15M - $110.73M

Now I’ll run through how the company is set up to regain compliance and bring the SP back up to over $1 and beyond.

SAF Industry Growth

The global SAF market is experiencing explosive growth. Recent industry reports project a CAGR ranging between 33.8% and 45.3% through the next decade. With that, the market size is expected to expand from roughly $3.42 billion (2026) to over $52 billion by 2035 

New Rise Reno Facility Upgrades

The New Rise Reno facility is SAFX flagship renewable fuels processing plant. In 2026 the company began construction on plant upgrades to produce a nameplate capacity of 38M gallons SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) per year. 

These upgrades consisted of an overhaul of the existing systems to use Axens Vegan biofuel processing units. Although SAFX is strategically targeting the SAF industry, these new units provide the flexibility to rapidly shift production to biodiesel should market fundamentals change.

The forward looking financials of this newly upgraded plant are undeniable.

Wholesale Market Value 38M gallons SAF: $342M- $380M

Compared to FY25 net income of $74M, this plant alone stands to potentially over 4x that number when running at full year production capicity. 

BGN Partnership

BGN is an independent global energy and commodities group, and a market leader in transition fuels. With over 8 decades of experience in the energy sector, the company trades, distributes, stores, and finances energy solutions globally, handling approximately 50M tons of commodities annually. 

On April 3, 2026 SAFX and BGN signed a binding term sheet for a Renewable Fuel Tolling Agreement. Per the term sheet BGN will be responsible for the purchase and delivery of all renewable feedstocks to the New Rise Reno facility at its own cost.

SAFX will be responsible for the following:

• Inside-the-Fence Logistics: Receipt, handling, and management of feedstock inventory. 
• Production/Refining: Processing BGN-owned feedstock into Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Renewable Naphtha. 
• Storage & Blending: Provision of tankage for feedstocks and finished products, including blending services to meet commercial specifications. 
• Marketing Support: Coordination with BGN’s sales and logistics teams per the existing MOU.

 

Additional quotes from BGN President, Cenan Ozmeral as stated in the initial MOU for this partnership:

“We are pleased to be partnering with US based XCF in this exciting venture. BGN and XCF share a common goal to expand access to renewable fuels and accelerate the decarbonization of the aviation industry. Together, we aim to combine XCF’s scalable production model with BGN’s marketing and distribution network to create a seamless, efficient supply chain from feedstock to finished fuel.
 
“BGN’s trading strength, risk management expertise, and integrated logistics network, will make SAF adoption practical and commercially viable for airlines seeking to meet tightening decarbonization targets. This is a major step, which we believe will have a significant impact on the aviation industry’s ability to reduce emissions, in one of the hardest-to-abate transport sectors.”

This partnership is extraordinarily beneficial for SAFX. Not only will BGN supply all feedstocks for SAF production, but they also gain the ability to leverage BGN’s global commodities network for distribution. 

At first glance this deal seems too good to be true for a startup renewables company. That is until you learn that Chris Cooper was the Head of Renewables Trading for BGN before transitioning to his role as CEO at SAFX.

Axens Commercial Collaboration

On May 20, 2026 Axens announced an important commercial collaboration with SAFX that bolsters the company's position as a leader in SAF production and plant construction. Leading up to the announcement of the completion of the New Rise Reno facility, Axens stated in this press release that XCF global may independently offer project development, construction, and operational services for deployments of Axens Vegan units to support the scalable development of SAF capacity in North America and internationally. 

This collaboration is important, because it provides SAFX a new vertical separate from SAF production. A typical Axens Vegan deployment ranges from $300M - $1.5B depending on the facilities production capacity, feedstock flexibility, and whether it is a grassroots facility or an asset retrofit. 

Given a conservative estimate that 40% of plant capital investment can be attributed to deployment and construction, that puts SAFX in the running to potentially generate $120M - $600M for each new Axens Vegan plant construction they participate in.

Over the last year, Axens has already signed at least 4 new licensing agreements and is actively working on expanding its US footprint.  

DevvStream & Southern Energy Renewables Merger

The three companies have signed a definitive merger agreement with the goal of creating a next-generation energy transition platform. The proposed transaction brings together SAF, green methanol, renewable products, environmental attribute monetization, and advanced energy infrastructure into a single, globally scalable platform. 

The combined company is expected to link low-carbon fuel production with carbon credits and related instruments, long-term offtake commercialization, and infrastructure development. By combining scalable low-carbon fuels with environmental attribute monetization, the platform helps airlines and corporate customers address regulatory and sustainability requirements with greater flexibility. 

From the press release: “This platform will be able to compete with China and the world on providing fuels and other products without subsidies. The transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions as well as the other terms, closing conditions and termination events (including failure to timely receive the applicable fairness opinions) set forth in the Business Combination Agreement.“

Key Details:

• SAFX will acquire 100% of both DevvStream and Southern. Both companies will survive as wholly-owned subsidiaries
• Existing shareholders of DevvStream and Southern will exchange their shares for XCF common stock as follow:
  • XCF Global - 66.7%
  • Southern - 23.3%
  • DevvStream - 10%

45z Carbon Tax Credits

A major part of DEVS business is carbon management monetization. This means selling carbon sequestration credits, similar to what has made Tesla profitable in the past. Because these sales carry nearly zero cost to fulfil, they effectively function as pure profit. This is a big part of why the merger is happening.

Under the current Federal 45Z Clean Fuel Production credit, companies engaged in the production of sustainable aviation fuel are entitled to a transferable tax credit of up to $1 per gallon of fuel produced. The value of this credit is determined by the produced fuel’s CO2 emission rates.

Depending on the feedstock used, the expected credit for SAFX will be in the range of $.8-$.95 per gallon. Given New Rise Reno’s nameplate capacity of 38M gallons, this equates to the generation of $30.4M - $36.1M in transferable tax credits that can be sold by DevvStream through its environmental attribute monetization model. 

This will be an extremely lucrative revenue stream for the new combined company going forward.. A great example of why is Tesla. Although Tesla’s sale of regulatory emission credits only accounted for 1.5% - 3% of the company's total revenue, they have accounted for 30%-40% of their net income. Because these sales carry nearly zero cost to fulfil, they effectively function as pure profit.

Another important note about the 45Z credit, is Trumps BBB reduced the credit from a cap of $1.75 per gallon for SAF. This places importance on the midterm's, which continue to swing in the Democrats favor (per prediction markets) as the Iran conflict continues to escalate, and fuel prices and inflation keep rising.

If Dems are able to sweep the house, there is a good chance they will push to reinstate carbon sequestration initiatives that were reduced by Trump. If this happens, the value of future credits goes up ~75%.

Sorry to all the goobers who didn't get in until yesterday with a position above .20 and set a stop limit at .1999. Oldest trick in the book.

FFS this thing was trading in an accumulation zone for 4 months lol. Had to buy more and ruin my sub .13 average. Now 50k @ $.131. Thanks a lot 😒.